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| FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 6th Oct 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Apparently we should be calling this Melbourne Cup Preview Day, cause it is not like anyone knows what the Turnbull Stakes is, and no-one in Australia pays attention to horse racing outside of Cup Week. It has been seriously sensational weather in Melbourne this week, lots and lots of lovely sunshine, but wouldn’t you know it, come Friday and Saturday the temperature is going to drop 14 degrees to be cold and miserable for the races. Boo to you Bureau of Meteorology. Coming off some very sunny days with showers over Friday and Saturday you wouldn’t think this track would be too soft – bit hard to know how much rain is coming of course. So assume a genuine DEAD track at worse and really should give every horse their chance. Rail goes out to the 9M position here, and they tend to alternate between rail TRUE and rail out 9M for this meeting. No reason to suspect any bias and all horses should have their chance. Down the straight they tend to race down the middle of the track regardless these days and often it is a case of who can get a clear run up on the speed or down the outside to have the best chance. Although there are big fields you would think those in the market would win most of the races, but likely to be some value in quinellas and trifectas with long shots popping up. Let’s double up to $100 mainly cause we want to have a serious crack at the best bet of the day and spread the rest around playing with some quinellas in most races. RESULTS: Track stays quite firm with only a few showers and races perfectly. They come off the rails in the straight but every horse has its chance and for once they can actually run on and get into the finish (unlike Caulfield). Betting portfolio and selections get hit by scratchings, still managed to find most of the winners in the selections and take on a few favourites. BEST BET: Race 4: 8-EXCEPTIONALLY $20 WIN SCR $20 TRIFECTA: 8 / 2,4,5,6,10,12,14 / 2,4,5,6,10,12,14 x $10 = 23.8% SCR $10 This one is absolutely flying at the moment, and we have been keenly waiting for her to step out again. Showed a heap of staying potential early on her career, and was unlucky not to win this race in 2010 when flying home late. Had a few issues last year but really seems to be back to best now and might be a serious player this spring. Won here in July when went for home extremely early in a super tough win, and last 2 runs flying home late over the 2000M. Out to 2500M today suits better, loves Flemington, will get back but just so strong at the end of her races. Not much form in this field either. Really looks the best bet of spring so far for us – quite keen. Question is going to be the odds on offer though – few scratchings, was hoping for around $3.50 to $4.00, looks like more like $3 and bit concerned she is going to get in even shorter on the tote. Should win though. Might be able to get value in the trifecta if you go wide and something pops up at odds, suspect the 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT might rapidly improve today at very long odds, his runs in last years cups were excellent. RESULTS: Controversial scratching before the race because of the firm track. Trainer looking after their horse, but probably would have been a better idea to scratch at the start of the day. Had got into a very short price of around $2.25 before scratching. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-AMAH ROCK $8.50 EW 3rd W=$3.90, P=$1.70 = 1.70 x 8.50 = $14.45 This one is starting to rack up a very long list of excuses, but think he is still worth following. 1st up got held up for a vital stage on the turn at MV and absolutely flew home to just miss. Last start at Caulfield he was a bit sluggish early, but was gaining momentum late and dodging and weaving trying to find runs. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and you would probably just want them to race a bit closer to the speed here from a nice barrier. Each way at around $5, probably wouldn’t want anything shorter than that. RESULTS: Had every chance and was probably lucky to fall into third. Might be a little over rated, seems to be better held up for a run over shorter trips. QUINELLA : Race 6: 4,6,7,12 boxed x $2.50 = $15 1st 4-MAYBE DISCREET W=$5.40 / X Might be some value here in Race 6 as we are not that keen on the favourite the 5-COMMANDING JEWEL who we suspect might just get swamped at the end of the 1600M. Main chances seem to be the 12-SHOWMYA MISS who ran on well last start after being further back than intended and the 4-MAYBE DISCREET who is a 1600M winner that will race on the speed. Take a box quinella around these two and aim for a collect. RESULTS: Managed to find the winner away from the favourite who won in a pretty tough effort after crossing from an outside barrier. Couldn't find the quinella though unfortunately. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 10-SUPER COOL $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 3: 10-SUPER COOL, 14-DAZZLER x $4 X QUINELLA: Race 3: 10-SUPER COOL, 12-DEFIANT ANGEL x $2 SCR $2 QUINELLA: Race 3: 10-SUPER COOL, 5-SWIFT SUCCESSION x $2 X Coming off a maiden win, but that form is now looking good with the 3rd place getter winning at Caulfield last week at odds. Watch the replay, just like the way he came out and launched over the top of those in front of him. Doesn’t seem to be much depth in this field, many are 1st up or struggling for form. The (14) is likely to get very well backed here and is the main danger, but suspect it will start under the odds and create value on this one. Currently around $8 and looks a solid each way bet and will be value in the quinella if the (14) doesn’t figure in the finish. RESULTS: Looms up out wide but just doesn't show the same finishing burst as last time to finish 4th BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 5-ESCADO, 12-PINS OF PELE, 15-BALUCH $3 WIN X This 3YO 1800M race is always wide open and this year is no exception, so might as well spread win bets out over a few at odds. The (5) settled back a bit further than expected last start and worked home well, note that he gets a weight advantage over all of those coming through that race and wasn’t beaten that far. From a good barrier here should be able to take up a position and might stick on well. The (12) is going well on the provincials and will make his own luck on the speed which is likely to be a big plus in a big field. The (15) looks to be on the up and ran on well last start as well. All three are at around $15 and over, so back all three and hope for a result in a very tough field. RESULTS: Surprisingly in a big field the favourites fight out this race. Excellent run though by the (5) who is very one paced and just kept working home and working home out wide to finish 5th not beaten that far. BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 18-SPOT ON MAGGIE (emerg) $3 EW SCR $6 Up in class but this one is racing really well and might do something at odds if she gets into the field. Currently 2nd emergency. Lightly raced, fitter for the 2 runs in and they have been both eye catching runs finishing on hard late. Even if she finds this too big a step today keep following her as she will probably win something pretty soon. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 10-SOFT SAND at around $3.50 9th W=$5.00 This one does have a stack of ability and is currently favourite for this race. No luck 1st up when got in a bumping duel at the back of the field and flashed home late. But she is an expert at finding trouble and being unlucky – have a look back over her form - beaten favourite at $3.30 10/03/2012, beaten favourite at $2.80 25/02/2012, beaten favourite at $1.60 26/01/2012. She may come out and win – she has the ability, but the main problem here is the barrier – barrier 1, big field, she tends to drop well back in the run, the pace here will be even without being fast and you can just see her chalking up another notch on the hard luck list. You will know when they settle how she is going, if she is midfield or better than she can probably win, if she is trapped back on the rails in the back of the field it is going to be tough going. Plenty of other runner in this race at odds and prefer to back those. Risking RESULTS: Drifts in the betting, strikes trouble in the run (yet again) but never looks a likely chance. Successful lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 2: 5-ESCADO #2,4,11,12,15 x $1 = $5 X / 1st 4-PHILIPPI W=$5.00 Incredibly tough race and likely to be some big multiples here. Just think the (5) looks great value at $21, and will probably be longer on the tote. Drawn well, hopefully positions midfield or better, wasn’t that far away against many of these last start and gets the best of the weights. Hopefully will be around the finish somewhere at odds, so try for some quinellas in an even field. RESULTS: We weren't that far off a collect there, the (5) took a while to get into clear running and is very one paced but worked home well to finish 5th at long odds. RESULT: RETURN SPENT: $100 RETURN: $52.45 NET: $-47.55 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. UPDATE FACEBOOK STATUS Race 2: 5-ESCADO, 12-PINS OF PELE, 15-BALUCH Race 3: 10-SUPER COOL, 14-DAZZLER, 12-DEFIANT ANGEL Race 4: 8-EXCEPTIONALLY, 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS, 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT Race 5: 1-MOSHEEN, 11-CELEBRITY GIRL, 18-SPOT ON MAGGIE (emerg), 6-HI BELLE Race 6: 12-SHOWMYA MISS, 4-MAYBE DISCREET, 6-PROPER MADAM Race 7: 9-VOILA ICI, 8-SOUTHERN SPEED, 11-GREEN MOON Race 8: 6-MID SUMMER MUSIC, 4-BEL SPRINTER, 11-HALLOWELL BELLE Race 9: 9-AMAH ROCK, 13-MENADOS, 6-TESTASCANA |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ESCADO 12-PINS OF PELE 15-BALUCH |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SUPER COOL 14-DAZZLER 12-DEFIANT ANGEL SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-EXCEPTIONALLY SCR 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT SCR |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MOSHEEN 1st W=$4.20 11-CELEBRITY GIRL 6-HI BELLE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-SHOWMYA MISS 4-MAYBE DISCREET 1st W=$5.40 6-PROPER MADAM |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-VOILA ICI 8-SOUTHERN SPEED 11-GREEN MOON 1st W=$3.70 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-MID SUMMER MUSIC 4-BEL SPRINTER 11-HALLOWELL BELLE 1st W=$7.50 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-AMAH ROCK 3rd W=$3.90 13-MENADOS 6-TESTASCANA |
| RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M |
| Tips: 9-VOILA ICI 8-SOUTHERN SPEED 11-GREEN MOON 1st W=$3.70 |
| Others: 3, 16,12 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 9-VOILA ICI Handy : 3-DECEMBER DRAW, 6-HAPPY TRAILS, 11-GREEN MOON, 13-MR CHARD Back : 1-WINCHESTER, 2-NIWOT, 4-ETHIOPIA, 5-REKINDLED INTEREST, 7-ZABEELIONAIRE, 8-SOUTHERN SPEED, 10-LINTON, 12-MOUDRE, 14-SANAGAS, 15-SNEAK A PEEK, 16-ZURELLA, 17-SEVILLE Chances: 3-DECEMBER DRAW was flying last spring before a decent hip and shoulder put him out of action when short priced favourite in the Caulfield Cup. Given a solid year to recover, had been working really well last month or so and both runs this time in have been full of promise. 1st up loomed here in the Makybe Diva, but just ran out of condition, and 2nd up he positioned on speed which was a big advantage that day and fought out the finish pretty well. Much fitter for the 2 runs in after a long break, they had probably been nursing him back to his best and you would really think he is going to be ready to fire today and be back to best. Drawn inside, likely to race handy and make his own luck and did win this race last year in a tough effort when he really knuckled down to chase down one that had kicked clear. Does have to carry more weight this year and does meet the (9) 2kgs worse off from last start. Flem record excellent. Last year they had to qualify him so he had to peak earlier in the spring, this year that is all covered so they can take their time – but you would think today he should pretty much be back to his best. Just think he is ready to go here and is more versatile with more dash than many of these. Strong chance. 3rd W=$6.00 8-SOUTHERN SPEED is a tough old thing, well OK, she is five, so not that old, but that’s just the image you get of her. Has a pretty big punter fan club as she is one of the very few locals who can mix it with all those bloody imports that are everywhere, taking our jobs, stealing our mares, etc, etc. She is probably going better this spring than last spring when she won the Caulfield Cup. Been right in the finish every start this time in, went for home early in the straight here 2 starts back into the head wind and was lucky to get the bob in on the line, and then finished the best of the runners on out wide in the Underwood in a race where those on pace closer to the rails fought out the finish. Does meet the (9) 2kgs worse off those from that race and that one beat her home. Solid Flem record, firm track will suit, drawn wide though so likely to drop well back and will need them to be running on well and late. Though for her – a clear, long run down the middle of the track is probably what she wants. She is racing that well really don’t think you can rule her out of anything. Chance. 9-VOILA ICI is an import who has shown a fair bit of promise at both starts in Australia. Showed speed 1st up in the Memsie before fading towards the line and a lot to like about the run in the Underwood where he led and gave a serious kick for home in the straight and did look the winner at one stage. Actually yet to miss a place in 9 starts over the 2000M. Gets the best of the weights from the Underwood too – dropping 3.5 kgs into this and meeting the (3) and the (8) 2kgs better off – and for beating them home too. Drawn perfectly to take the lead here and might not get that much pressure up front. Just watch how the track is playing – if the on pacers are winning then sheesh this one is going to be very hard to beat. Very hard to beat regardless, on pace, making own luck in front, improvement to come, better off on weights. Strong chance. 4th W=$6.10 11-GREEN MOON is one we have a lot of time for and suspect he is going to rapidly improve even further this time in. Mixed in the best staying races last spring and showed plenty, but really like the sit and sprint and win going away from them win in the Blamey in the Autumn – showed a touch of class. Given no chance 1st up when riding tactics were to be ridden back in the field (love it when you find that out after you have got on), and flashed home really strongly. Loomed a dead set winner on the home turn in the Dato Tan, we were already in the queue to collect, and maybe the jockey was a bit too cocky, or he just died on his run, but did look to have the (6) comfortably covered everywhere – except the line. 3 wins from 4 starts at the 2000M, firmish track suits, well weighted here meeting the (6) 1kgs better off for a photo finish and plenty of improvement to come. From middle barrier should be able to race handy too and there will be a few here giving him a head start. Ready to go. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.70 12-MOUDRE is one that it is great to have back in form for the spring. Rising star in Spring 2010 when just couldn’t get himself an invite to the big Cup parties, as much as he begged and pleaded. Then given a solid year off to recover from some aches and pains after disappointing Autumn 2011 campaign. Actually we wouldn’t mind a year off work either – can someone have a chat to the boss please ? Given 3 trials this time in, so looks like they want to keep him fresh and preserve that flashing finish. Excellent run 1st up when held up for ages in the middle of the field on a slow speed and flashed home when got clear – did get cover from the head wind, but probably would have challenged the winner with clear running. Definite Flemington horse and 3 times winners here – wants a long straight run at them so the outside barrier definitely suits. Does have a brilliant finish – just going to be giving so many of these a head start and needs a racing pattern that suits those running on late. Question is going to be if the speed is going to be fast enough to let him run on – which looks unlikely. Little bit of give in the ground suits. You just get the feeling he may be back to his Spring 2010 form and don’t think you can write him off. Chance. 16-ZURELLA is a lightly raced NZ mare who impressed with her strong finishing pounce here to win 2 starts back. Seemed to have a bit of a sniffle 2nd up in the Naturalism according to the stewards, but didn’t think she was particularly well suited in that race and most of the races that day were favouring the on pacers. Back to Flemington probably suits, and she would have a lot of upside here. Gets a very, very nice light weight into this and think that is very important to note here – she has a touch of class, gets into this with no weight and how often do you see these ones coming off an out of character run suddenly getting back to form and wining at big odds. Will drop back, come down the middle of the track, so probably needs speed on, but keep her safe. If she returns to her 1st up form and there are no issues she is a decent chance here at odds. Rough chance. Place: 5-REKINDLED INTEREST is one we have a bit of a hate-hate relationship with, can never catch him and to be honest he doesn’t seem to win that often unless everything goes his way. Blinkers go on today which could really make a difference and trainer has commented that he is a little behind in his preparation so they want to fire him up a bit. Fitter for the 2 runs in, didn’t actually think much of the 1st up run despite the jockey’s excuses, 2nd up at MV he ran home pretty well actually, just the 1st two home had pinched a break on him. Track with just a little bit of the sting out suits him perfectly. Worth noting he ran 5th in this race last year – coming off a win in the Dato Tan so this year his form is actually a little worse - and he had 3 lead up runs coming into this race last year, versus the two this year. Good chance he might still need the run here. Still think last start was promising and he is just about ready to fire, he can be costly to follow though. He has the turn of foot to win these races if he puts it all together. Will probably run on again. Place chance. 15-SNEAK A PEEK is yet another import putting on his best Oz-tralian accent to impress the local mares down at the pub. However, unlike most of the others he is a bit younger and his form this time in hasn’t been that bad. Fitter for the 2 runs in, not beaten too far both starts, and was noticeable at the back of the field trying to squeeze through the pack as they rounded the tight MV bend in the Dato Tan. He is probably the wild card here – he looks like he might go on this spring and might suddenly improve here. Watch the market. Rough. Sacking: 1-WINCHESTER is one of the many imports become locals trying their luck over the spring carnival. Pretty much impossible to line these ones up, they invariably show very little for the first run or two, then suddenly improve at huge odds over distance to totally stuff up your trifectas – so as much as it hurts it is probably better to wait till they show some form rather than trying to guess which one is going to pull something out of the magic trick bag this week. Eight year old so an old timer who might take a while to adjust to life down under. Started at $100 1st up in the Underwood, and did run on well at the end of the race, but do find it hard to get enthused by good runs when you are still beaten a distance. Outside barrier, likely to drop well back here and just have to wait and see. No 2-NIWOT is an above average handicapper stayer – and one of the very few we have. Fitter for the 2 runs in, where he didn’t show much, but his game is going to be back to a handicap and over some decent distance. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should just about be ready to show something today. Worth noting when you look at his form that it is his 3rd up run when he normally starts to show some form. Also note excellent Flemington record with 3 wins and little bit of give in the ground suits. Main issue here is the weight scale carrying equal or greater weight than these. Suspect he might improve and do something today, so maybe if you want a monster first four worth throwing in and suspect he actually won’t be too far away, but not a serious chance. No 4-ETHIOPIA is an extremely lightly raced stayer who impressed everyone quickly rising to the top in his first preparation. It is always hard to know with these 4YO stayers coming off their 3YO classic staying season – so many times they just don’t go on with it and it is really hard to tell which ones will and which ones won’t. Obviously this one has ability and they have been taking their time with him so you would think he would go on and there are plenty who like him in the Cups this year. MV first up really didn’t suit so you can’t read much into that. Likely to drop well back here, inside barrier a slight worry in a big field as he probably has to come to the outside and go around the entire field to get a clear run. Will probably get support – he did first up, but actually just prefer one more to get a better guide as to how he is going. No 6-HAPPY TRAILS is racing in the best form of his career. Always shown a heap of promise, but it has been hard luck story after hard luck story as he got too far back in the field, ran on too late and just didn’t win as often as he should have. Big difference this year has been that he has gone forward and taken up a position in his races – as with any horse – you can’t go wrong racing on the speed and making your own luck. Few things to note here – he was probably ahead of his rivals in terms of preparation this spring and think today the others will have more improvement to come than him. Even jockey admitted he was lucky that the (11) died on his run last start as he did seem to have him covered. Note that Boss has jumped off to ride the (8) and Williams has jumped off the (8) to ride the (11). So jockey change may be a factor here. Meets the (11) slightly worse at the weights and that one almost certainly has more improvement to come. Drawn inside and likely to lob handy again. The other question here is going to be the 2000M – only one start wasn’t too bad, 2nd on a heavy track in Sydney. Just think he has a few things against him today, weights, more improvement from those around him, out to a distance range where he is maybe a query or at best unknown. Prefer to risk. No 7-ZABEELIONAIRE is a classic staying 3YO who now needs to step up in his 4YO season and show everyone he can mix it with the big boys. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and as a drop back strong finisher should be suited here out to the 2000M and at Flem. Gets a little relief under this weight scale rather than WFA. Drawn out, but should drop back and probably run on OK and probably won’t be too far off these, just not sure he has the class to mix it with these ones. Maybe later in the spring. Prefer to see. 10-LINTON seems to be going along well for a new stable, but is one that had huge spruik on him as a 3YO and didn’t quite get to the level that was expected for the Williams stable, who are very hard markers. 2nd up and up 400M and ran on well in the Dato Tan 1st up and meets the (6) slightly better on weights here. Seems to need a genuine firm track to show best, so would probably want track better side of dead. Will drop back and run on. To be honest he is one we struggle to catch. Suspect he might just need on more run before we consider getting on. Passing. 13-MR CHARD has been struggling for form and looks outclassed against this lot. Showed a fair bit in Spring 2010, but has obviously had some issues with long periods off the track. Had the 4 runs in, really should be showing something by now. Drawn well and can probably race handy. Flem record is good but out to the 2000M for the 1st time and hard to get excited about this one. No 14-SANAGAS is another one of those pesky imports who has shown nothing in 2 starts this time in, but probably suddenly improves at $100 and totally stuffs up your first fours. Bastards. Hard to get enthused about form, obviously distance and Flemington probably helps, but cannot back with any confidence until he shows something. No 17-SEVILLE is another import come local who seems to be slowly adjusting to life down under. Ran on well 2nd up in the Naturalism under a big weight, but was still beaten a distance and really just worked home rather than flashed home with any brilliance. Likely to drop well back here again, and that is going to be an issue with the inside barrier and a big field with not much speed. Will probably work home OK for another 5th or 6th but not a serious betting proposition. No 2nd W=$48.40 Summary: This is always a great betting race as spring starts to get serious and form lines start to merge. It can also be a very tricky race, often you need to judge the amount of improvement to come from those who have had one or two runs in and haven’t shown much, but are going to rapidly improve stepping up in distance. The other important thing to note is that is not WFA, and sometimes unheralded horses down in the weights can pinch this race. Looking back over the list of winners there does seem to be a lot of strong finishers in previous years. Really you need to line up the three lead up races into this and line up the form and the weights – the Underwood, the Dato Tan and the Makybe Diva. Through the Underwood it is mainly 9-VOILA ICI, 3-DECEMBER DRAW, 8-SOUTHERN SPEED, through the Dato Tan you would think 11-GREEN MOON has his rivals covered and that leaves 12-MOUDRE coming through the Makybe Diva. Throw in the wild card the 16-ZURELLA and really there is not much between these and any of this group could win. Speed is going to be crucial here – and really it doesn’t look very fast at all. 9-VOILA ICI should cross and lead again, 3-DECEMBER DRAW, 6-HAPPY TRAILS, 11-GREEN MOON sitting handy, but not that much pressure up front and then back to a stack of backmarkers. Unless the track is strongly favouring runners on it could be hard for some of these backmarkers to get into the finish. Initially we were fairly certain we were going to push for the 3-DECEMBER DRAW here, ready to ping, but just watching the Underwood video again have to impressed with the way the 9-VOILA ICI kicked on the turn and there should be plenty of improvement to come there. Really comes down to how the track is racing, but likely to get a soft run in the lead here and could be very hard to run down. Think 8-SOUTHERN SPEED might be the main danger, just watching her finish off strongly in the Underwood and like that she has had an extra run or two in over her rivals this time in. Not much between 3-DECEMBER DRAW and 11-GREEN MOON for third, but maybe just tend towards the (11) with the weight pull. Really not much between these at all in a very wide betting race and don’t be surprised if the 16-ZURELLA does something at odds here with no weight. One to risk: 6-HAPPY TRAILS 5th W=$17.20 Roughie: 16-ZURELLA The Key: Not WFA – watch the weights RESULTS: Really competitive race and stack of good runs as everyone suddenly peaks for springtime. 17-SEVILLE steps up and an upset looms half way down the straight, but just dies on his run. Solid runs from the 9-VOILA ICI who played up before the start and over raced, the 15-SNEAK A PEEK who was held up for runs on the home turn and ran on well, the 4-ETHIOPIA who was winding up nicely at the end of the race and looks on song for the spring and the 1-WINCHESTER coming home well hard late. |
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