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| FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 5th Oct 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): It has been cold, rainy and bloody windy this week in Melbourne, so you have had to keep a firm grip on that live quaddie ticket as you fumble for loose change. Weather is fining up going into the weekend though, so the track should stay perfect with just that little bit of give at around a DEAD(4), but continue to dry during the day, and will probably end up quite firm come the feature races. Just keep an eye and raised wet finger out for the wind though – if is stays windy the pattern will most likely favour those coming home hard late down the middle of the track, or those racing with cover in the run. Straight races down the middle of the track is likely to be the place to be. Suspect they will be winning running on late regardless. Having said that note that there is very little speed in quite a few of these races – Races 6,7,9 in particular. The Williams stable have often come to the fore on this day, they seem to time their preparations right for after the Grand Final, so watch out for Williams runners in both Sydney and Melbourne. Bit tricky betting early in the day with a 2YO race followed by three pretty open 3YO races where anything could suddenly improve so suggest to tread lightly early on and look for some value winners before jumping in later in the day. RESULTS: Very competitive days racing and just goes to show that the main races are weeks away yet and anything can happen. Track ends up a firm GOOD(3), racing is even though there is a strong head wind so strong finishers tend to run down the on pacers in most races. Williams stable once again step up in Melbourne and Sydney on Turnbull Stakes Day with most of their runners being in the finish. We struggle to get into the money, but that's hardly surprising after a great week last week - 4 top picks run a place with three seconds and one third, but just can't find a winner. BEST BET: Race 6: 3-MOUDRE $10 WIN X Have to admit we didn’t think we would be ever tipping this one again as the best bet of the day, but this really looks set up for him today. Heap of talent, but also injury prone so raced very sparingly. Placed at WFA here 2 starts back and has a devastating finishing burst when right. Didn’t mind the Naturalism run at all – they dawdled in that race and he still finished on OK. Seems to really prefer Flem – 3 times winner here. Maybe would just like the track to still have some give by Race 6. Most of all he looks ready to do something, he has class on this field of pretty average stayers, he gets back to Flemington, suspect they will be winning running on and should get decent odds with the short priced top weight. Actually quite keen on him today in an ordinary field. Have a decent whack on him straight out at about $6.50 and use him in doubles with anything else you like on the day. RESULTS: Pretty disappointing, maybe didn't appreciate the firm track but really expected him to step up today. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 14-MURTLE TURTLE $4 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 3: 14-MURTLE TURTLE – FIELD x 50 cents = $6.50 X QUINELLA: Race 3: 14-MURTLE TURTLE, 6-LE MANS, 9-ESSENTIAL ELEMENT boxed x $1 = $3 X There actually doesn’t seem to be that many with real form in this race which is unusual for a 3YO. This one has only missed the place once in 8 starts and is fitter for the 2 runs in over in Adelaide which have both been good. Firm track here is a plus and has been competitive in Group races over there where a lot of these only have maiden form. Filly against the boys, but just looks to be going better than most of these. Big plus is also drawn a perfect barrier over the Flem 1400M and races on speed. Likely that some up and comer coming off a maiden will get well backed, but this one just looks way over the odds each way at around $11. Back straight out, and take a quinella with the field in case something suddenly improves at odds, and a quinella again with the main selections. RESULTS: Short priced favourite wins this race, our one runs well below expectations, looms, but fades very quickly. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-BRITISH GENERAL $5 EW 2nd W=$6.30, P=$2.20 = $11 QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-BRITISH GENERAL, 1-LAUNAY $2 2nd 3-BRITISH GENERAL W=$6.30 QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-BRITISH GENERAL, 5-FUTURE SOLUTION $2 2nd 3-BRITISH GENERAL W=$6.30 QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-BRITISH GENERAL, 8-DON’T GET EXCITED $1.50 2nd 3-BRITISH GENERAL W=$6.30 We tipped this fella last start and happy to stick with him. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the 1400M run. 1st up stuck on well on speed down the straight in a strong form race, and then 2nd up he was left AS the one to chase a tear away leader – on a track where they were winning swooping – so really forget that run. Back to a dry track here is a big plus. Three times winner and yet to be unplaced over the Flem 1400M, and should jump and sit handy in a small field with not that much speed. Really looks to have a heap going for him today – so back each way at the $7 on offer an suspect he will be in the finish so try and grab some extra collects with quinellas with the (1),(8) and the (5) at odds. RESULTS: Jumps, leads, fights off a stack of challenges and is holding them down the straight - till one springs from last and runs over the top of him in the last 50M. Darn it. BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 16-BALACLAVA LADY $3 EW X Nice big even field in the last and although the main winning chances the (9), (5) and the (6) are going to be hard to beat, think it is worth having a little something each way on this one at odds. Fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been good – poked through late 1st up and then was coming home hard late 2nd up at Caulfield. The 1400M here today suits, as does the firming track and the trick to her is that she likes galloping room so the outside barrier probably isn’t an issue. May even go forward and race a bit wide and handy. If she runs today it means she has been SCR from a much weaker race at Benalla tomorrow for this Group 2 race. Worth remembering she should have won this track and distance on Cup Day when got stuck for runs on the rails. Just looks a solid improver today and worth something each way at very long odds – around $41. RESULTS: Actually didn't mind this effort, was trapped wide all the way and loomed half way down the straight to be in the finish but died on her run. Keep following her. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 1-SEA MOON at around $2.60 2nd W=$4.40 fav Super spruik on this one and admittedly things haven’t gone right so far this spring after being very well backed in the Makybe Diva, jumped out and did the splits and that was the end of that. Then nothing made ground in the Underwood – so totally impossible to work out how well this guy is going. Stable made a very interesting choice to dodge a run in the Turnbull for this race – over more distance, with a solid top weight, and against a field, of well, let’s just say dubious quality stayers to be polite. So no surprise to see him as a short priced favourite. But really, you have no idea how he is going, whether this spring is going to be a write off or not, far enough he has close to no competition today but you would have to be keen to take the shorts about him. They have dodged the better race which has to raise questions about how he is going? May come out and win – so what – to be honest don’t really care – there is no way we are taking short odds about this one. RESULTS: Well we weren't the only ones to drop off this one - drifted like nothing, and got out to $6 on BETFAIR. No-one wanted to touch it. Super lucky to get away with this after being 1st past the post but losing on protest. Phew ! Don't think can really claim that as a Lay, but you could have easily laid it early and backed it later on for a guaranteed profit. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6,7,10,14,15,16/ 4,6,7,14 x $5 = 11.90% 4th 6-FIORENTE W=$4.80 / 2nd 7-PUISSANCE DEL LUNE W=$3.80 / X Main race of the day, capacity field, and think the main two wining chances are the (6) and (4) running on late down the middle of the track off a fast speed. However , also suspect something will probably pop up at odds into the placings so let’s take a bit of a random stab, go wide for 2nd especially around the roughies (14) and (15) and narrow for 3rd again with the value runner the 14-DEAR DEMI and see if we can’t arse a nice collect in the feature race for a minimal outlay. RESULTS: Very messy finish, but 6-FIORENTE W=$4.80 was finishing on strongly and probably should have won - then again so should have about a dozen other runners. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $11 NET: $-39 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. PICK A NUMBER. ANY NUMBER. Race 2: 3-LANNISTER, 1-ROCKFORD, 14-CUBAN GOLD Race 3: 14-MURTLE TURTLE, 6-LE MANS, 9-ESSENTIAL ELEMENT Race 4: 12-CHLOE IN PARIS, 4-CALCATTA, 5-BRING A RING Race 5: 3-BRITISH GENERAL, 1-LAUNAY, 5-FUTURE SOLUTION Race 6: 3-MOUDRE, 2-TANBY, 13-WHY NOT Race 7: 6-POLITENESS, 4-WORDPLAY, 7-SE SAUVER Race 8: 6-FIORENTE, 4-SUPER COOL, 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE Race 9: 13-STEPS IN TIME, 1-SPIRT OF BOOM, 7-THAT’S THE ONE Race 10: 9-PERON, 5-HI BELLE, 16-BALACLAVA LADY |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-LANNISTER 1-ROCKFORD 14-CUBAN GOLD |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-MURTLE TURTLE 6-LE MANS 9-ESSENTIAL ELEMENT |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-CHLOE IN PARIS 2nd W=$5.50 4-CALCATTA 5-BRING A RING |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-BRITISH GENERAL 2nd W=$6.30 1-LAUNAY 5-FUTURE SOLUTION |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MOUDRE 2-TANBY 13-WHY NOT |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-POLITENESS 4-WORDPLAY 7-SE SAUVER 1st W=$18.10 *** nice value winner and trick start to quaddie *** |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-FIORENTE 4-SUPER COOL 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 2nd W=$3.80 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-STEPS IN TIME 3rd W=$5.50 1-SPIRT OF BOOM 2nd W=$7.60 7-THAT’S THE ONE SCR |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-PERON 2nd W=$3.10 5-HI BELLE 16-BALACLAVA LADY |
| RACE 8: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M |
| Tips: 6-FIORENTE 4-SUPER COOL 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 2nd W=$3.80 |
| Others: 14,16,15,5 Pace: FAST Leaders : 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 8-GLENCADAM GOLD , 9-TUSCAN FIRE (wide), 12-MR O'CEIRIN Handy: 2-SANGSTER , 3-HAPPY TRAILS, 4-SUPER COOL , 10-SILENT ACHIEVER , 14-DEAR DEMI , 15-QUINTESSENTIAL , 18-WALDPARK (emerg), 20-BIT OF HELL (emerg) Back: 1-MANIGHAR , 5-HAWKSPUR , 6-FIORENTE , 11-FAWKNER , 13-JET AWAY , 16-ROYAL DESCENT , 17-PRECEDENCE (emerg), 19-WHISPER DOWNS (emerg) Chances: 4-SUPER COOL was one of a bunch of outstanding 3YOs and he really went to town during the Melbourne Autumn, winning the Australian Cup against the older horses. Has very high expectations this spring in the big three and looks a leading contender. 1st up effort was excellent, flashing home late to place in the Memsie and he did look like he had plenty of improvement to come out of that. Then slightly disappointing last start in the Dato Tan, or just a very strange run to line up - he appeared to be struggling around the 600M, but he also didn’t appreciate one racing very tightly on his outside. Got going again to poke through near the line in crowded room and wasn’t beaten far at all. Very hard to work out what went on there, he did hit a flat spot, but suspect had he been able to get out on the turn and be outside horses would have been a different story. Dry track here suits, drawn a nice barrier, can sit right on the speed in this and run on down the middle of the track and think we can forgive the last run. Right in this. Strong chance. 6-FIORENTE has barely missed a beat in his few starts down under, nothing like saying hello and welcome than by running 2nd in the Melbourne Cup at your first Australian start. Just given a warm up , cobweb shaking run during the Sydney Autumn and looks like being one of the major players this spring. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up in the Memsie couldn’t get a clear run in the straight and should have finished a lot closer, then very impressive to come from last in the Dato Tan on the turn and whoosh past the whole field going hard to the line. Though have to love the last start Stewards report of advised riding tactics – “to be ridden more forward”…His main rival the (4) got cluttered up in the field last start and he got the clear swoop down the outside, which is the run you want in that race. Drawn out a little here and there are a few who go forward in this, so they either need to decide to ride him cold out the back or risk getting caught out a bit wide. But suspect runners on will be winning today, so swooping down the outside from a outside barrier may be the way to go. Obviously right in this and can’t really knock his chances – other than this is a very even field and he may have got the luck last start when his rivals did not. Strong chance. 4th W=$4.80 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is pretty well known as the current reigning Melbourne Cup favourite and really hasn’t done anything to suggest you would want to drop off him so far. Stunning win on Stakes Day last year and really set up a very long year, waiting and waiting to see what he could do on the first Tuesday in November. Cruisey win off a fast tempo 1st up when just skated through the field on a whim and won stylishly, then only just beaten here 2 starts back when a under rated strong finisher got his back and just wore him down on the line. Given absolutely no hope in the Underwood when quite bizarrely ridden back in the field on a dawdling pace – they really need to tell the jockeys those school zone speed limits don’t operate on feature race days. Even more a bizarre tactic considering the jockey had just won the previous race leading and going slowly ! His run in the Underwood was simply outstanding – pretty much nothing in the whole field changed position at all – and he was storming down the outside. Fitter for the 3 runs in, back to Flemington, you would think today we really want to see him do something special and he should be ready to. Drawn barrier 1 and surely they will go forward today – but will have to sit behind a wall of speed which may get tricky and suspect the winner is going to come down the middle of the track in this. Definitely the one to beat – question is will he do something brilliant today or is he going to throw the Cups markets wide open by only being competitive ? The inside barrier does have us worried to be honest. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.80 14-DEAR DEMI is a pretty honest and consistent mare and is probably a bit under rated. Very no fuss 3YO filly who went through the Melbourne Spring and the Sydney Autumn and the QLD winter and just kept on being competitive. Quite a few starts for a 4YO mare – 25 starts – just goes to show she keeps going and trying and is competitive in everything she is aimed at. Despite wining some headline races she really doesn’t have much of a spruik on her – and the whole question mark with these ones is if they go on as a 4YO and she looks like she just might. Fitter for the 2 runs in, storming home late 1st up and then jumped and sat on speed and was competitive with ATLANTIC JEWEL and IT’S A DUNDEEL in the Underwood. Drawn inside, so listen for riding tactics, although she normally settles back in the field you wonder if they might go more forward here? Think she is the smokey here, got beaten by the best two horses in the country last start, comes in at the bottom of the weights in this, as long as she doesn’t get shuffled back along the inside think she is the best roughie in this race by far. Rough chance. 16-ROYAL DESCENT is another 4YO mare who probably has more of a spruik on her than the (14), probably due to that 10L thrashing in the ATC Oaks. Funny about that. Gets a weight pull against this lot under this weight scale. Lightly raced, plenty of upside and should be ready to peak now with the 3 runs in – all of which have been good late finishing flashing bursts. Drawn inside but may settle back a bit and the speed should be on – but just needs to get a run through the field at the right time. Looks ready to produce at the 2000M here and right in this race. Strong chance. Place: 1-MANIGHAR is a former Cups international 4th to 6th plodder who got a new lease on life and a new WFA turn of foot when prepared locally. Came back with a bang and an extreme makeover in Autumn 2012, then was looking good spring last year before injury knocked him out. Thereabouts, but a bit below best during NSW/QLD winter campaign. Bit hard to line up how he is going at the moment – we were wondering if maybe the edge had gone off him and he had gone back to being the staying distance one pacer ? Really there hasn’t been much wrong with his two runs this spring though, both have not been far off, he should be fitter for those and improving onto a big track, over further and with a few runs in. He does seem to be going better this time in so might step up today. Question mark will be over the Underwood form if that is a bit flattering ? as nothing changed position for the last 800M of the race. More issues here are the top weight – giving weight to the whole field, and the outside barrier and you would think he is going to settle well back here. Maybe a rough trifecta + first four chance if he gets out to silly odds, but prefer to let run again, but be interesting to see how competitive he is here. WFA proven strong finishers do tend to go well in his race though. Place chance if he gets to value here. 2-SANGSTER is a NZer we have seen plenty of times on a dedicated Cups campaign. Winner of the VRC Derby as a 3YO when he showed a really nice turn of foot, then didn’t really step up again during the Autumn 3YO season. Given a nice long spell and returned to his best form over in NZ earlier this year. Had the 3 runs back this time in and should be another who should just about ready to do something up in distance and with a few runs in. Jumped and sat handy in the Dato Tan and stuck on pretty well, though it was a pretty bunched finish and there were quite a few unlucky runners. 2000M record is pretty good. Question mark is again going to be this weight scale – he is now giving weight to horses who beat him home last start. Drawn out a little, suspect he might go forward a bit here and that might be a good thing in a big field with the potential for lots of hard luck stories. He might settle handy and stick on Ok in this in clear running– think he is definitely one you want to put in at odds for a big trifecta or first four collect. Place chance. 5-HAWKSPUR is a Waller Sydney visitor with a huge spruik on him. QLD Derby winner as a 3YO and looking to frank the form in his 4YO season. Fitter for the 3 runs in and the extra distance and big track should suit. Slow pace didn’t suit last start. Drawn outside here in a capacity field, but the speed looks genuine and should be coming home hard and late down the middle of the track, which is likely to be the racing pattern here. Watch the market for betting moves, and worth noting he represents the new form line to the Melbourne lot. Just got a niggling doubt he is going to drop too far back here and give something racing mid field too big a start - it is hard to see them pressing forward from this barrier with so many leaders in this race. Just tending away from him on that basis in a very strong field. Does look like he will get the speed here to suit. Rough chance. 12-MR O'CEIRIN is a tough rolling on pacer who stole a race last start with a leading dawdle, not sure if you heard about it ? The jockey doesn’t tend to like to publicise these things…Tends to keep his form and very honest and reliable. Had two runs back from a freshen up and might have a bit of a race fitness edge on many of these. 2000M record is pretty impressive – 4 wins from 6 starts – as is his overall win strike rate. Question mark here might be the firmish, or firming track – although he did place 2 starts back on a firming track he definitely prefers some give in the ground. Drawn well, will go forward and make his own luck here. Like that he is a last start 2000M winner against a lot of horses stepping up in distance. If the track retains some give he is a good value place chance as he is racing pretty well, is in form and is race fit. Place. 15-QUINTESSENTIAL is a NZ staying mare on her way to the Cups and looks to be going along very nicely indeed. Both her runs this time in have been excellent, finishing home hard in an eye catcher first up and then working home OK in the Naturalism dawdle. Probably does just prefer it wet and good chance this track could come up quite firm. Drawn wide and does like to race handy too, and there is a stack of speed in this race so likely to get caught wide. Coming along nicely though so a forward showing wouldn’t surprise even against this lot. Place chance. 18-WALDPARK (emerg) is one of the internationals seeking permanent residency and often these don’t show much till they get to the bigger tracks and the further distances – which would be today. Lightly raced with good win strike rate. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has been running in the standard WFA lead up runs heading towards the Cups. Wasn’t disgraced 1st up in the Makybe Diva, and then no point looking at the Underwood form - seeing they pretty much stayed in the same order all the way. He might rapidly improve here – out to distance and a big track and with the 2 runs in. Looks like the firmer track suits too. He raced handy in the Makybe Diva here and might do so again from a nice middle barrier. Suited under this weight scale too as gets some weight relief. Be surprised if he wins this – but probably worth throwing him into your trifectas and first fours if you are looking for a big collect, as with the nice barrier and on pace sit he might actually be around the finish. Rough place. SCR Sacking: 3-HAPPY TRAILS is really the sort of horse you love to follow – just cause he is so consistent – and you know where he fits in and what he can do, and what he can’t do. Previously known as an unlucky come from behind miler, he stepped up a notch with a totally awesome last spring in major features – mainly cause he was ridden more forward. Struggled to find his best during his Sydney autumn campaign, but has been slowly building into this spring with 3 promising runs this time in. Of course he also had the wee little issue of being caught in a compromising position which meant he was SCR from the Dato Tan Stakes a few weeks back. Unlucky 1st up over in Adelaide when finishing on, thereabouts in a red hot Memsie field, and really a pretty solid run in the Underwood when wasn’t far off the best in the country at all. Question will be from the Underwood though is how we read the form – they went so slowly that nothing changed position, the first 5 at 800M out were also the first five home – so that run might be a little flattering. Firmer track suits. 4th up and looks ready to go. The 2000M here is the real question mark – remember Mr.G.Boss, entertainer extraordinaire, jumping off him after his Dato Tan win last year and raising questions marks about him over further. And have to say we agree – has placed over 2000M and wasn’t beaten that far when 5th in this race last year, but just don’t think it is his best distance. Had better form coming into this race last year, coming off a Dato Tan win, and he couldn’t win it then. Has to give weight to much of this field under this set weights scale. Drawn a nice barrier, will go forward, and get every chance so probably won’t be far away again but prefer to risk over this trip. No 1st W=$30.10 8-GLENCADAM GOLD was all the rage this time last year when he was sent out favourite in the Caulfield Cup on the basis of stunning front running wins in Sydney – and duly flopped – although his Melbourne Cup run wasn’t too bad. Didn’t come up during Autumn, but has quickly found form this time in. Definite leader – and has drawn wide here – in a field with quite a few leaders so suspect he is going to ensure a very genuine tempo in this. Firm track suits, and will go around at long odds today as the spruik seems to have dropped off him. Suspect they are going to be winning running on today, he just looks to have a task from a wide barrier in a race with a lot of other on pacers. Passing. 9-TUSCAN FIRE is a tough as, on pace stayer and one we have a lot of time for. Earned himself a Caulfield Cup spot with a lead all the way Mornington Cup win, and has been working through his early spring races pretty nicely. Surprise 100-1 winner 1st up, but his runs after that have all been good in unsuitable races – worked home well 2nd up at MV, run in the Makybe Diva was better than it looked as he dashed into it half way down the straight along the rails, and then really given no chance last start in one of the leader dominated dawdles at Caulfield. No idea why the jockey didn’t go forward last start considering there was no speed at all. Actually has quite a good Flem record – 3 times winner and placed 8 from 10 at the 2000M. Drawn outside – wonder if they go forward today or not? Listen out for riding tactics. Going to struggle against this lot until he gets into a handicap, so not today – but he is going pretty well and will almost certainly pop up sometime during the spring. Watch out for him. Not today though. 10-SILENT ACHIEVER is a more than capable NZ miler / stayer who is being set for the Cups this year after wining the MV Crystal mile last year which would be quite a feat. Ran an excellent 2nd in the BMW over the Sydney Autumn so looks right up to this level. Another who is a bit hard to line up how she is going – 1st up in the Memsie she was held up for the length of the straight – literally – just surprised they didn’t block her trying to get back into the mounting enclosure afterwards as well. Not beaten far in the Underwood, but how do we line up that form ? Nothing changed position in running in the straight at all. She probably is slightly better on rain affected ground which she is not going to get here and might need that to be competitive in a race like this. Drawn out and probably going to get posted a little wide here. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her run a race, we really can’t tell from her form how she is going, but on a dry track from a bad draw in a capacity quality field maybe just pass over her today. Passing. 11-FAWKNER is an extremely interesting runner here, especially seeing his stable deliberately moved two of his more high profile stable mates towards other races to make sure he got into the field on a Caulfield Cup path. So stable must have some opinion of him. Fitter for the 2 runs in and both have been good running on late. Flemington specialist having won 5 times here - and only missed the place here once in 8 starts. Only had the two tries at the 2000M and hasn’t really set the world on fire in weaker races, so the trip looks some query - but you have to respect that the stable know what they are doing here. Drawn a nice barrier, favourite track, strong finisher, ready to ping, only query might just be if they go quite hard in this and turn it into a true staying slog as think some others would have an edge in that case – and there does seem to be a far bit of speed in this. Going to be very interesting to see what he does here. But think the fast run 2000M will find him out so happy to take him on. Risking. 3rd W=$11.20 13-JET AWAY is one of the many imports that have become locals that are going to dominate this spring racing season. Undefeated in two starts in Australia, so obviously he likes it down here. Although those wins were in weaker class they show he has got the hang of racing upside down and back the front and lightly raced so looks to have a fair bit of upside. 6 times winner over the 2000M. Was lucky to get an invite today after the Williams stable diverted a few of theirs to other races. Bit unusual to come into this race 1st up, media says the owner didn’t want to run him in the Makybe Diva Stakes and then he had a setback going into the Underwood. Likely to drop back here from inside barrier and suspect the winners will be coming down the middle of the track today. 1st up into this just prefer to see him run and line him up against this lot. No. 17-PRECEDENCE (emerg) has been around for many a year now and starting to lose track of many Cups campaigns he is up to. This is his 4th spring cups mission. Known for being a bit hard to catch and mixing his form as he gets older. Dry track definitely suits. Normally take a few runs to find best, and just has a few too many quirks, needs a firm track, needs to be outside horses, needs a fast pace and them to be running on, 2nd up and up 600M off mediocre 1st up run, and looks outclassed against this lot. No 19-WHISPER DOWNS (emerg) is actually coming along very nicely this campaign and he is black booked as one to get on next start. Wasn’t actually expecting them to aim this high though. Super honest when right and has a very nice finishing sprint which saw him have a purple patch last preparation – a totally awesome 18 starts between Aug 2012 and May 2013 for 7 wins and 6 placings. Fitter for the 2 runs in – both have been really good, finishing on really hard 1st up down the straight, and although finishing in the 2nd half of the field 2nd up he was dodging and weaving and making ground. Up 600M though in distance and this class will test. Gets the dry track he needs. Outclassed in this but follow him in whatever he goes into next start as he is ready to win. Not today. 20-BIT OF HELL (emerg) is one of the many imports come locals hogging the spring racing limelight. Launched with a very nice run at 1st Australian start then safely stored away to wait for the spring. Very disappointing 1st up and then ridden against normal pattern 2nd up here in the Makybe Diva when led. Solid run though in the Naturalism, when made good ground in a race dominated by the leaders – so looks like getting out to distance made all the difference. Drawn a nice barrier here and can probably sit handy if he gets into this field as 4th emergency. Just looks outclassed against this lot even getting a few kgs from them and seems more a 2400M handicapper. No Summary: Now this is a pretty serious race and you could spend days trying to line up the form here. Important things to note is that, of course, the Turnbull is set weights unlike the WFA races many of these have been running in, in the lead up to this – so there are some nicely weighted horses towards the bottom of the weights here. Generally the horses that have won this race over the last few years have been hard tough proven WFA types. Also worth noting that this race is often won by late finishing horses down the middle of the track – have a look over the last 10 years or so at the winners of this race – horses like ZIPPING, EFFICIENT, LITTORIO. This can be a bit of a trick race as horses are getting into the serious end of spring now – so you have to guess how much improvement they have to come, and how much they are going to improve now with a few runs in and getting onto Flemington and the 2000M. There seems to be a absolute stack of speed here - 8-GLENCADAM GOLD , 9-TUSCAN FIRE (wide), 12-MR O'CEIRIN all capable of going forward, you would think they will sit off them a bit on 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE. Plenty drawn wide as well who may press forward 2-SANGSTER , 3-HAPPY TRAILS, 15-QUINTESSENTIAL so this race is going to be truly run and think you want to look for something drawn out and running on hard and late down the middle of the track. When we first looked at the fields for this we were going to tip 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE on top and no doubt about it, thought the Underwood Stakes run as outstanding. But starting to go off him a bit, the inside barrier is a real issue, in a race with a stack of speed and good chance they will be wining running on down the middle of the track. They can’t really ride him back, so guess they sit just behind the speed and take their luck along the inside of the track – so watch the racing pattern in the early races. Bearing that in mind we are going to tip the 6-FIORENTE on top, just cause he is in form, dashing win from last at MV and the speed here and the outside barrier means he is most likely to be flashing home late. Which makes 4-SUPER COOL the main danger for the same reason, bit hard to tell exactly what went on at MV but think it is definitely worth giving him another chance. 7-PUISSANCE DE LUNE may come out and do something special – but suspect is going to take a very special ride as well. Obvious other chances in 16-ROYAL DESCENT and 5-HAWKSPUR. Despite there being some very clear winning chances, don’t be surprised at all if something at odds gets into the placings and this is a great race to go a wide trifecta in, narrowing it down to the main winning chances for first, and going wide for the placings – suspect 14-DEAR DEMI, 15-QUINTESSENTIAL are both likely to put in runs at odds today. Good luck in a super tough race. One to risk: 11-FAWKNER 3rd W=$11.20 Roughie: 14-DEAR DEMI, 15-QUINTESSENTIAL The Key: Fast speed – get out and run on late down middle of track RESULTS: Extremely messy race with about a dozen hard luck stories. Still can't believe 3-HAPPY TRAILS won over 2000M at this level ! 6-FIORENTE flying home late and would have won in another few metres, 5-HAWKSPUR no luck held up for runs on the inside, but actually the run to follow might be 13-JET AWAY who loomed to win half way down the straight but just died on his run 1st up. |
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