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Sportsbet
are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Turnbull Stakes. |
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| FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 4th Oct 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): On the colder side in Melbourne this week, but still not much in the way of rain and we have had a string of firm to very firm tracks in Melbourne this spring. Sure to be a major rain event coming up and hitting one of the feature race meetings soon you would think. Track is currently a DEAD(4), weather is clearing on Saturday, so should be better side of dead and firm, but not quite as firm as we have had the last few weeks. Last meeting here on Makybe Diva Stakes Day, the rail was TRUE, and the track probably did favour those running on late, in particular in the straight races where the outside barriers totally dominated. Good chance that is going to happen again, so factor in horses finishing late and maybe box up the outside barriers again down the straight just in case. Looks a really good day for a bet and there are plenty of solid chances around the $8 mark in even fields. These fields have some depth, or are quite even with lots and up and comers, so don’t be afraid to go around the favourites. Betting strategy is to go straight out on a few $8 chances and save the win on a few others, only need to get one or two up and you will be ahead for the day. The Betting Portfolio has been tipping up a storm so far this spring, with 5 profits and 3 returns from 8 meetings, so yes, we are well and truly over due for a wipe out week (that’s the punting disclaimer). RESULTS: We come to a punting stand still after a great start to the season. You know you are having an off day on the punt when your Best Bet of the Day, and one of your favourite horses refuses to even leave the barrier! Wipe out for the Betting Portfolio, but still a few winners in the selections and the feature race preview is pretty close to the mark again. The racing pattern tended to favour those racing on the speed and very few horses made ground from well back in the field. BEST BET: Race 8: 10-SUAVITO $8 WIN X One of our favourite horses and she should be able to win a good race this spring. Seems to be best around this distance range and just has an amazing finishing burst – very few horses could have got out and won like she did 1st up at Caulfield, when she was held up for most of the straight. Just out stayed to the line 2nd up, but another good run and should be at peak fitness now with the 2 runs in. Important that she has drawn a middle barrier here, as she does have a history of getting into trouble inside horses. Placed both starts this track and go back and watch her run on Stakes day last year where she was again storming home. Drops in weight from the 58kgs last start. Should be enough speed for her to run on here, good chance the track will be playing towards runners on, and just seems to be going better than most of these. Think she is pretty good and this is going to be the preparation she goes up another level. Keep following her and back straight out today at around $5. RESULTS: One of our favourite horses, SUAVITO refuses to even leave the barrier! Poor Greg Miles, as if being a race caller wasn't a hard enough job, having the well backed favourite suddenly disappear in a puff of smoke left him bewildered and confused. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 16-LUCIA VALENTINA x $2 X, 1st 16-LUCIA VALENTINA W=$8.90 QUINELLA: Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE x $1 X, 4th 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE W=$5.60 QUINELLA: Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 1-HAPPY TRAILS x $1 X QUINELLA: Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 15-BRAMBLES x $1 X, 3rd 15-BRAMBLES W=$10.60 Quite liking our top pick each way in a very open feature race. Lightly raced with lots of potential and bit of a boom on him, but going to get around $13 for him today. Think he looks well suited in this, gets a bit of a weight advantage against the more traditional WFA horses, drawn a good barrier, will go forward and sit right on the speed and make his own luck. More importantly, fitter for the 3 runs in, and has had the 2000M run this time in when most of his rivals are stepping up in distance. Quite liked the run last start where he was grinding away to the line and back to the inside which was the worse going. Think he is going to be in the finish, just a matter of if something comes home late and runs over the top. Each way at around $13, and save with the quinella with the main dangers the (16), (8), (1) and best rough chance the (15). Or you could just use the Sportsbet offer above, back him straight out and aim for a big win, and get your money back if he places. RESULTS: Our pick lets us down badly and is one of the first horses beaten. Which is a shame because we had all the other horses in the finish well covered. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-ROYAL STANDING $4 EW X Very open race for the 3YO C+G and this race seems to have come up a little weak this year. Probably going to be won by one coming through a country maiden, so let’s push the case for this one. Was competitive in some better races during his last preparation earlier this year and looks like he has gone back to maidens to score a win and get some experience. But better than most of the others in this coming off maiden form in that he has solid form in previous preparations. Oliver on board, drawn a little awkward, but should be able to go forward here and find a position. Have a little something each way at around $11 RESULTS: Snagged back to last over the Flem 1400M means it had no chance at all from the very start. Forget the run. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 10-JUSTAWAY $4 EW X This 1800M 3YO race is always a very even and open affair with lots and horses getting out to distance for the first time and rapidly improving. This one seems to have a lot of ability, just keeps doing things wrong, doesn’t race straight or races with head on side. But keeps running on well and you get the impression once he puts it all together he is going to be a pretty good horse. Storming home late last start, fitter for the 3 runs in , extra bit of distance here suits, as does the big track and think the outside barrier is a plus as he wants to make a clear late run at them. Each way at around $13 in a tough race. RESULTS: Back at the tail end of the field in a race where nothing much really makes ground, but fails to run on at all. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 12-AVA’S DELIGHT $3 EW 4th W=$29.50 In case you are in trouble coming into the last, let’s see if we can find a value winner. This one has a bit of ability, just a shocking habit of missing the start, but drawn out and if they are running on late today that might not be too big an issue. Fitter for the 2 runs back from a long break and they were both OK over unsuitable shorter trips and much better placed out to the 1400M here. Previous form before the break was very consistent and she ran some OK races in good company. Expect improvement today, just hope she jumps and they can run on OK. Little bit each way at around $26 to finish the day off. RESULTS: And as you would expect on a bad day on the punt, the Best Roughie runs on well - for 4th. Keep following her she still has improvement to come. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 2-WANDJINA at around $3.60 7th W=$3.70 This one actually put in a really good run last week in a tougher race, coming from well back and working home well. Drawn out here and jockey has to decide whether to drop back or go forward which is his normal racing pattern. On form, he is right in this race, just this field is full of up and coming horses coming off maiden and country form and invariably something steps up and improves rapidly. $81 last week, $3.60 favourite this week – what a difference a week makes! So probably in the finish somewhere, may even win, just in a field with a lot of different form lines don’t really want to go taking the $3.60 on offer. RESULTS: Never looks a factor and no drama with this lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 2,10 / 2,6,7,9,10,12,13,16 / 2,6,9,10,12 x $5 = 10.41% X / 1st 13-FOREVER LOVED W=$13.70 / X There are likely to be some big trifecta dividends today so let’s have a stab at one. The main winning chances in this race are our Best Bet 10-SUAVITO and the main danger is the 2-BONARIA. There are a stuck of value chances though, especially the 9-JESSY BELLE and the 6-GIRL IN FLIGHT, so let’s take them in a trifecta and load up the 2nd placing spot where there are a lot who could get into the finish at odds like the 7-MEZARAY MISS who looked the winner half way down the straight last start at Caulfield, and the (13) and (16). RESULTS: Bomb out with our top pick refusing to leave the barriers and not much left after that. SPENT:$50 RETURN: $0 NET: $-50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. SPRUIK. SPRUIK. SPRUIK. Race 2: 10-JUSTAWAY, 2-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN, 14-KAIZAEN Race 3: 4-IBICENCO, 3-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 7-ANUDJAWUN Race 4: 4-ROYAL STANDING, 1-PETROLOGY, 6-STAVIVA Race 5: 5-TEMPLE OF BOOM, 4-CHAUTAUQUA, 11-BOUNDING Race 6: 5-ROYAL OCEAN, 2-FONTEIN RUBY, 13-LITTLE HOTTIE Race 7: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 16-LUCIA VALENTINA, 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE Race 8: 10-SUAVITO, 2-BONARIA, 9-JESSY BELLE Race 9: 8-SPIRITS DANCE, 12-AVA’S DELIGHT, 2-LUCKY HUSSLER, |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-JUSTAWAY 2-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN 14-KAIZAEN |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-IBICENCO SCR 3-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 1st W=$1.80 7-ANUDJAWUN 3rd W=$16.10 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ROYAL STANDING 1-PETROLOGY 6-STAVIVA |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-TEMPLE OF BOOM 4-CHAUTAUQUA 1st W=$3.00 11-BOUNDING 2nd W=$4.20 Quinella: $5.80 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ROYAL OCEAN 2-FONTEIN RUBY 1st W=$5.90 13-LITTLE HOTTIE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM 16-LUCIA VALENTINA 1st W=$8.90 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SUAVITO 2-BONARIA 9-JESSY BELLE |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SPIRITS DANCE 12-AVA’S DELIGHT 2-LUCKY HUSSLER 2nd W=$4.50 |
| RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M SET WEIGHTS |
| Tips: 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM 16-LUCIA VALENTINA 1st W=$8.90 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE |
| Others: 2, 4, 15 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 9-LIDARI, 10-THOUGHT WORTHY Handy: 1-GREEN MOON, 3-SUPER COOL, 6-SILENT ACHIEVER, 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 11-SHOREHAM, 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 15-BRAMBLES Back: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 4-HAWKSPUR, 5-THE OFFER, 7-SERTORIUS, 13-GRIS CARO, 16-LUCIA VALENTINA, 17-STIPULATE, 18-LET'S MAKE ADEAL (emerg), 19-ALBONETTI (emerg) Chances: 2-HAPPY TRAILS continues to be under estimated, but he is the real deal and has now been competitive at the top level WFA for a few seasons. Normally takes a few runs to run into form, but right back to his top last start in the Underwood when he finished hard to just miss. Won this race last year coming off a 4th in the Underwood in a stronger field, so his form pattern lines up pretty well. Previously we doubted him at the 2000M in this grade, but he probably should have won the Cox Plate when just left the run a little late and he is right in this race. Interesting to see where he settles here, he has drawn barrier (1) and he is tending to drift back in his races these days, and has struck a capacity field here. Has to give weight to this field under these weight conditions. Last year he also drew an inside barrier, but managed to weave his way through the field, but he might strike a few obstacles this year when he tries to do it again. Peaking at the right time, tough as and always tries, if they decide to settle him forward he is right in this, dropping back will need luck again, but still a strong chance. Chance. 4-HAWKSPUR is a Sydney visitor and early on this spring the Sydney horses has been struggling in Melbourne with delayed preparations due to major rainy day blues. They should be starting to catch up now though. Has already had the 4 runs in so a bit further along in his preparation than many of these and just looking at this form breakdown he is stating to look like he prefers a bit of give in the track, which he may not get here. Was unlucky in this race last year, beaten < 1L and was held up for runs on the inside. Strong finisher, runners on should be winning today and drawn out to get a clear crack at them. Started favourite in last year’s Caulfield Cup off his run in this race. His Sydney form hasn’t been quite as good as last year when he did have a bit of a boom on him, but think he looks well suited here and he did go close last year. Chance. 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is just doing enough to keep punters interested and he does seem to be slowly building momentum, in a very low key approach to the Cups compared to last year. Was well supported 1st up and run was a little flat, but his two runs since have been good and he has put himself into the race, but really only been competitive towards the minor place getters. Does seem to be slowly building into form though. Placed 5 from 5 this track and probably would just prefer a little give in the ground, but his dominant Queen Elizabeth win and Blamey wins were both here on firmish ground. Ran 2nd in this race last year, when he got a perfect on pace sit and looked the winner until the (2) weaved through the field and got past him. Likely to get an almost identical run this year from an inside barrier and should be running into the race at the top of the straight. Bit of weight relief under these conditions too is a big plus. At least this year you can get reasonable odds about him every start. Looks very well suited here, just get an inkling he finds one better yet again but he should be in the finish here. Chance. 4th W=$5.60 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM is a lightly raced up and comer with a good win strike rate, and worth noting the jockey won this race last year on the (2). Has a bit of a spruik on him and does tend to start well in the market in all his runs. Fitter for the 3 runs in, take out the heavy track flop 2nd up and his firm track form is generally pretty good. Another on pacer, and there are quite a few of them in this, but from a middle barrier he can take a sit here and should put himself into the finish. Was slowly pushing through on the inside last start at Caulfield, and the track was favouring those running on that day so think you need to respect the effort. Should improve with the run the Melbourne way of going too. Has the 2000M run under his belt, lightly raced, gets some weight relief and meets the (13) 3kgs better off for a narrow margin, will sit on speed and put himself into this race. Quite liking his chances and like getting on those on the way up in this race under the different weight scale. Strong chance. 16-LUCIA VALENTINA is the Sydney boom horse of the spring and possibly on her way to Cups glory. Storming win first up on a heavy track when finished with a mighty finishing burst all over the top of them. Not as brilliant 2nd up, but did seem to just be warming up towards the end of the race. Her best form is definitely on wet ground and by the time this race is run this track will probably be towards the firmer side, but think there are a lot of positives for her in this – 3rd up , out to 2000M, back marker, but there is a lot of speed in this race and suspect the track will favour those running on. Right at the bottom of the weights here means she is going to get a race run to suit and that puts her right in the finish here. Strong chance. 1st W=$8.90 17-STIPULATE is an import who looked liked he was going to head towards very big things indeed with his impressive Naturalism win. Very well supported when stepping into a WFA race last start but didn’t really fire. Guess you can forgive them one bad run and important to watch the market today to see if he gets well backed again. The Caulfield win really was very good, he zipped past two horses who had kicked clear and are going OK. Drawn out a little, lots of speed here and should be able to get a clear crack at them down the middle of the track. Some chance at the bottom of the weights, if he repeats his 1st up form then he is probably right in this race. Chance. Place: 1-GREEN MOON is the 2012 Melbourne Cup winner who has had his races well spaced since with fairly light preparations. Won this race in 2012 on his way to Cups glory. 2nd up into this today and up 400M off an OK 1st up effort in the Makybe Diva where held his ground OK. 2nd up in the Autumn he wasn’t beaten far in the Australian Cup at this track and distance. Has actually only placed once in ten starts since his Melbourne Cup win, but generally hasn’t been too far away. 3 times winner here at Flemington, and 4 times winner at the 2000M, and Flemington does seem to be his cup of tea. Placed 3 from 4 this track and distance – and the other start was a 4th, so that’s a stat worth paying attention to. Firm ground suits too. Drawn wide and likely to roll along on the speed and probably gets caught a little wide here. Main question mark here is going to be the weight – 59 kgs and has to give weight to the rest of the field, many of whom beat him home last start. He is a class horse though, and think you really need to pay attention to that Flem 2000M record, so likely to be in the finish somewhere and represents the value place chance for trifectas and first fours at nice odds. Place. 6-SILENT ACHIEVER is one of the best horses in the country, but really her form in the Melbourne spring is starting to look a bit questionable and we jumped off her last start as she just didn’t seem value, even though she got well backed. 4 runs last spring she wasn’t far away and didn’t have the best of luck on occasions, but never placed. Two runs this spring have been pretty much the same, she runs on well, looks like she is on the improve and one to follow, but tends to do pretty much the same thing the start after. She is competitive at this level, just shouldn’t be going around $3.40 fav like she did last start. Fitter for the 2 runs in, they have both been full of promise, and really on her best she is right in this – just she has yet to really put herself into the finish of a Melbourne spring race, except for her handicap win in 2012. Firm track no issue for her, and she ran a good 6th, beaten < 2L in this race last year off similar form lines. Drawn a really good barrier here and should sit mid field and not be far off the finish, just preferring place and think we want to look to others till she really shows something in Melbourne. Place only. 7-SERTORIUS is a gutsy consistent stayer who is better suited in a race like this than at WFA. Firm track is no issue and should have plenty of improvement to come with the 2 runs in and getting out to a more suitable distance. He can roll on the speed or drop back and not quite sure what they do from this outside barrier, though suspect they might drop back as there are a few on pacers in this race. Probably just needs the one more run, but he will run on OK and is worth a value shot for your multiples. Place. 9-LIDARI is still mixing it up between being an on pacer, or a back marker, or a miler or a stayer. Fitter for the 3 runs in and he has been competitive in all of them – but not really fighting out the finish, but a tad off the finish. Went forward last start and was faltering on the line. Drawn OK and he can lob on speed here and give himself every chance. Also gets a couple of kgs weight relief here as well. Don’t think he is a WFA horse, more of a mile handicapper, but he is another who actually looks pretty well placed here today. He is nominated for the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup, but think he is more of a miler, despite winning over further overseas. Fitter for the 3 runs in, hasn’t been too far off them, better suited under this weight scale. Will they lead today or try and ride him just off the speed? Suspect 2000M is as far as he wants though and even with the weight relief these have been beating him home last few starts. Rough only. 2nd W=$21.00 15-BRAMBLES has been nursed back to health after a long 2 year lay off and has been coming along nicely this spring. Fitter for the 3 runs in, he chased hard at Caulfield but the (17) went past him, and plenty to like how he knuckled down and fought out the finish last start under the big weight. Drawn inside, but likely to settle a bit further back today with a fair bit of speed in this. In winning form, drawn a good barrier, down a lot in weight and do like the way he has been fighting out his finishes. Rough chance. 3rd W=$10.60 Sacking: 3-SUPER COOL is the child star who looked like the next big thing as a 3YO when he won the Australian Cup, but his dream has soured and now he just makes shopping mall appearances to sign autographs for cash. We are trying to say his form hasn’t been that crash hot since then. Just didn’t come up last spring, there were a stack of excuses, but he just wasn’t putting in. Full year off, and 3 runs back and there hasn’t been much interest in him, though he wasn’t too far off them last start. Punters seem to have deserted him and fair enough too, can’t really get interested till he gets interested again as well. Fitter for the 3 runs in and maybe, maybe just the slightest glimpse he was running back into form last start, but strikes a big, in form field here and ends up having to give them weight which is not ideal when you are struggling for form. Passing till he shows some form again. 5-THE OFFER has major Melbourne Cup aspirations and has been doing the traditional Melbourne Cup lead ups and doing enough to keep people interested. Ran on really well 1st up at MV when jockey was full of praise, and then didn’t show much 2nd up at Caulfield, but good chance the track was far too firm for him there. He is one that definitely prefers a bit of give in the ground. Out to 2000M should suit, and an outside barrier to let him flop out the back and make a long sustained clear run at them is a plus. Should be ready to show some form around now if he is going to be a contender, but think you still want to sit back and see how he goes today. Passing. 10-THOUGHT WORTHY is one of Lloyd’s imports who has yet to show much in Australia and would want to get a wiggle on before they place a For Sale sign over his head. Raced forward last 2 starts and has given up pretty quickly, so wondering if they might be ready to ride him a bit quieter today and see if that changes things? Worth noting that these imports can suddenly improve and Williams stable has a habit of getting them to suddenly improve on this day – but still – can’t really have till he shows some form. No 11-SHOREHAM is an OK handicap stayer who looks way out of his depth in this race. Fitter for the 2 runs in and out to 2000M suits, but win strike rate is starting to look a little ordinary. 1st up run was actually pretty good running on late out wide, then caught back in the pack against a tear away leader last start so hard to read the run. Another who could sit on speed here but looks outclassed against these. No 13-GRIS CARO is a lightly raced imported stayer who is starting to put it all together and work out the local lingo after a year or two Down Under. Stable rapt to get the win last start and a ticket into the Caulfield Cup. Bit hard to line up exactly how good he is, he could be on the way up and hard to work out exactly here he is going to fit in. Ride won the race last start though, there wasn’t much speed, he box seated and just managed to hold on. Meets the (12) badly on weights for a narrow win. Will probably be ridden a bit more quieter today in a field with a lot more speed. Has winning 2000M form leading into this, so can’t totally knock chances, but in a big even field prefer to pass over him today. Passing. 14-CRACKERJACK KING SCR 18-LET'S MAKE ADEAL (emerg) just has a habit of finding bad luck in her races. Last start she got forced wide and had to go early when one zipped around her, she was finished in the straight, but started coming again – and then the gap closed on her and totally chopped her out. She hasn’t raced in many winnable races over the last year, continues to race at the top grade and her win strike rate is starting to suffer as a result. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to do something now, just needs to find the right race and have a bit of luck and the 10th of 11 last start is much, much better than it looks on paper. Drawn wide, and drops back here and probably this race isn’t going to be the one she breaks through in, but keep an eye out for her wherever she goes. Not today. 19-ALBONETTI (emerg) is a no namer SA stayer who got specked at huge odds last start and actually ran on really well to run 4th. Fitter for the 3 runs in and has the 2000M run under her belt this time in. Still lightly raced and last run was full of promise so looks like she might be better than her form suggests, but outclassed into Group 1 company against these, even with the weight pull. No Summary: This is often a really tough race and this year is no exception, plenty of chances in a big field and the Turnbull always throws in that extra reality TV twist of having a set weights weight scale, rather than WFA meaning that good horses can get into the field with a weight pull against the traditional WFA rivals. Looking through the recent winners, HAPPY TRAILS came from well back along the inside last year, but GREEN MOON, ZIPPING, LITTORIO, EFFICIENT were all strong finishers and think with some decent speed again this year and a track that may suit runners on, the runners on need to be watched out for in this race. Not quite sure who is going to lead here, especially with the (14) scratched, maybe the 9-LIDARI, or the 10-THOUGHT WORTHY, but with both not in the best of form they might want to sit back a little. 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 15-BRAMBLES will all be up and sitting handy on the speed regardless, so they should run along OK in this. Pretty keen on 12-ENTIRELY PLATINUM here each way, perfect run on the speed, lightly raced on the way up and fought on well last start and has the 2000M run this time in. Definite danger is the 16-LUCIA VALENTINA and she is likely to get a lot of support, elevate if they are running on and winning, but should be enough speed for her here to storm home in a race that is often won by runners on. 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE looks to get a great run here and looked the winner in this race last year (may be worth taking the quinella again with the (2), because stranger things have happened). 15-BRAMBLES the best of the rough chances in a very even field, and never, ever underestimate 2-HAPPY TRAILS whose main issue is the inside barrier. But actually happy to just back the top two picks here the (12) and (16) in a very tough race with plenty of value. One to risk: - Roughie: 15-BRAMBLES 3rd W=$10.60 The Key: Good speed here should favour runners on. RESULTS: Sum the race up pretty well with one of the main chances winning impressively, 16-LUCIA VALENTINA 1st W=$8.90, who got out to good odds after being under an injury cloud all week. Form preview is pretty much spot on with 2-HAPPY TRAILS not being able to get a clear run, best roughie 15-BRAMBLES 3rd W=$10.60 running well and 6-SILENT ACHIEVER struggling to find best form in Melbourne. Winner was the best run of the race, 2-HAPPY TRAILS no luck and 17-STIPULATE finished off OK. |
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