|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - Oct 2nd 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: WINDY - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
It looks like Melbourne has missed most of the rain and although there are a few showers coming running into Sunday this track should stay firm with just a bit of give in it. More of a concern is the wind – it is supposed to be quite windy on Sunday and suspect you will want to get cover in the run and they might run on OK late down the middle of the track. Down the straight the outside rail is likely to be the place to go as it was last meeting.
There are some big even fields and there should be plenty of value runners getting into the finish. Just keep an eye out for all the double acceptors over this punting weekend and see which race gets chosen for what horses.
BEST BET: Race 9: 11-ULMANN $8 WIN
Racing in career best form after not having the best of luck a few times in previous campaigns. Last two defeats have been on a very heavy track and then solid 2nd here last start this track and distance behind subsequent Group 1 winner. Drawn a perfect middle barrier to get some cover and storm home down the middle of the track and there doesn’t appear to be many winning chances here with plenty of out of form horses, 1st uppers and 1400M distance queries. Looks the one to beat and back straight out at around $3.80.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 7-WE’VE GOT THIS $4 EW
Sprinter who we have not seen the best of yet and both runs this time in have been excellent. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was finishing hard down the straight 1200M here last start. Placed 4 from 5 at Flemington. The 1-UNDER THE LOURVE is the one to beat, and is very well weighted against these from last start, but we are getting a bit sick of him and he keeps starting very short odds and getting beaten and prefer to be on this one each way. They should come to the outside rail here which will favour those finishing late, although do note there is a distinct lack of speed in this race. Happy to back this one each way at around $8.50 which looks nice each way odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 10-MANAGERESS $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 1,6,7,10 boxed x $6 = 100%
Big even field for the mares feature race and barriers and cover are going to be crucial here. A lot of these have had an awful lot of chances to win a race like this and haven’t, so think the 10-MANAGERESS is the way to go. Was excellent 1st up and drawn a middle barrier to get cover and finish on hard late. Placed 6 from 9 at Flemington. Finished 2nd in this race last year and not beaten far in the Matriarch behind LUCIA VALENTIA and just looks to have more upside than many of these. Back each way at around $9 and there should be plenty of value in the box quinella with the 6-VIBRANT ROUGE suited back to 1400M on a firm track, the 7-JESSY BELLE who has been luckless both runs this time in, but has drawn very wide and the class on pacer 1-MISS GUNPOWDER.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 15-LARRIKIN $2 EW
This 3YO race is always one of the worse races of the spring as a dozen different form lines converge in young horses going up in distance for the first time. The 6-ROCKETEER is definitely the one to beat, but watch out for this roughie the 15-LARRIKIN. Famously won at 100-1 two starts back in a sudden form reversal, but then was pretty good at MV when sat on the rails behind the speed and got badly held up for runs on the turn and ran on OK when into the clear. Really if you look at his last 2 starts only his form is quite competitive with these and he is going to start close to the rank outsider in this field. Drawn a rubbish outside barrier, but if they can find some cover think he is way over the odds at around $61.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-FROMPARIS WTHLOVE $2.50 EW
Have been following this one through without a collect so far, but happy to give her one more go. Hopelessly unlucky last start when held up for runs at the top of the straight and then stopped again more than once when full of running. Drop back type who is looking for a big track and distance and the Flemington 1600M is likely to suit. Another with a rubbish outside barrier, but looks like one who wants to get to the outside in clear running and storm home so might not be too big an issue. Worth something each way at $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-SET SQUARE $2 WIN $4 PLACE
Been racing in career best for and all 3 runs this time in have been excellent in top level races. Stormed home late in the Lawrence and the Feehan and then worked home OK in the Naturalism when the wet track may not have suited. Think she is much better at Flemington, on firm ground and over the 2000M. Ran 3rd in this race last year with worse form and wasn’t far off here in the Mackinnon either. Drawn to drop back and get cover and run on and just looks way over the odds at around $21. May find one better at this level, but think she will be in the finish
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 3-ALMANDIN at around $2.60
Improving stayer with huge spruik on him, but really he only beat a small and very ordinary field last start. The start before that at MV, the 8-ALOFT was held up for runs and went past him easily in the straight, and that one is going to start double the odds here. Very one paced type who was suited by a tear away leader last start. Hard with these staying races now with imports who can suddenly improve and just have no interest in taking the very short $2.60 on offer about this one.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 4,510,11,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
In the big field of 3YO fillies there is a good chance of a value quinella. We have already backed the roughie 11-FROMPARIS WTHLOVE, and the smart NZ filly 5-ELEONORA looks the one to beat (especially as the NZ form seems to be superior this year). Throw in the consistent and proven 4-SMART AS YOU THINK and some value improvers in the 10-WATERLOO SUNSET and 13-BETTYRAE RUBY running on late and hope for a result.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BETS THANKS.
Race 2: 5-STYLEMAN, 12-ZUNBAQA, 9-LUCKY BEAU
Race 3: 6-ROCKETEER, 15-LARRIKIN, 13-BEACH LIFE
Race 4: 7-WE’VE GOT THIS, 4-FAATINAH, 1-UNDER THE LOUVRE
Race 5: 8-ALOFT, 10-DANDY GENT, 2-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Race 6: 5-ELEONORA, 11-FROMPARIS WTHLOVE, 4-SMART AS YOU THINK
Race 7: 4-HARTNELL, 7-SET SQUARE, 9-JAMEKA
Race 8: 10-MANAGERESS, 6-VIBRANT ROUGE, 7-JESSY BELLE
Race 9: 11-ULMANN, 7-TASHBEEH, 4-FEDERAL