|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 7th Oct 2017|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
The track is quite firm at the moment, but there are a few showers heading into the weekend which should just take the edge off it. Rail goes back to 9M here, from the previous midweek meeting where it was out 14M and the racing pattern that day did tend to favour those running on late out wide. Most of the meetings this year have been tending towards on pacers on firm tracks, regardless of which course, but suspect they will be able to run on OK and win today and often they come off the rail at this meeting. Down the straight expect the outside rail will be better and look for those with outside barriers in the straight races.
For the feature race, we get the bonus of seeing the mighty mare 2-WINX in action in the Turnbull Stakes. It is just a shame she has scared off most of her rivals here and only has one real challenger, the 1-HUMIDOR who was super impressive winning last start. This is exactly the sort of race she may have been vulnerable in. She has been winning on heart this time in, and giving weight to some in form horses here would have maybe made things interesting. Instead, there are quite a few no hopers in this field making up the numbers (much like our pending appearance at The Block auctions). The horse to keep an eye on here though is the 3-VENTURA STORM, both runs in have been excellent and didnít get fully tested going to the line last start. Suspect he is going to run a lot better than expected today, and if you are the type who bets in the pre-post markets think he will shorten considerably for the Cups.
From a betting point of view, we can stay out of the two year old race and the Turnbull Stakes, and really that 3YO 1800M race on this program is just about always one of the worse races to bet on for the entire year. We are badly in need of a winner in the Betting Portfolio, and fully and totally understand if you wish to put your life savings on the Lay of the Day instead. We think there is still a bit of value in the other races though, so have mainly gone each way and some roughies, mainly at double figure odds.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 6-SILENT SEDITION $5 WIN
Super talented mare who we havenít seen the best of yet and strikes a very winnable race here 1st up. Super consistent too, only missed the place twice in 17 starts now. Fresh form is good, and tactically she is very well placed here Ė there isnít much speed in this race at all, and she can sit on the speed and her main back marker rivals will be giving her a start. 1st time down the straight, but think she looks a solid win bet at around $4.20 and has the class to beat these fresh.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 10-HULME $4 EW
Improving type who won really well at first start and then we backed him last start when he drew wide, dropped back and finished off really well. Keen to keep following him Ė he looks to be a good horse on the way up and should be fitter for that run. Drawn well here, stays at the 1400M 2nd up, and should be able to sit handy and in a race with quite a few chances keen to have something each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-SWORD OF LIGHT $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-SWORD OF LIGHT#7,9,16,17 x $4 = 100%
Very consistent type who is a little under rated and keeps running well at good odds. Fitter for the two runs in and winner last start this track and distance against many of these. Just makes her own luck, jumping and taking a good position on speed and drawn to do the same again here (although there is a little more speed in this race), Continued to improve with racing last time in and looks overs as an each way bet here at $11. Anchor in the quinella with some of the main dangers like the 16-PETITION, and the perpetual fourth place getter the super rough 17-GIVE US A GO who we think might do something today. Quinella should pay well in a big field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 5-WATCHMESPIN $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 5,8,11,12,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have gone pretty wide here, but think here is plenty of value in this race and a good chance of an upset result in a big field of 3YO fillies most of them out to the 1600M for the first time. Keen on the (5) at long odds, around $25. She was good running over the top of them 2 starts back and then made good ground last start from well back and wide, in a race that favoured those on speed and close to the rails. Drawn well and hopefully they can ride her a bit more forward today. Plenty of value chances in this like the 12-BRING ME ROSES, who was awesome last start in Adelaide, so box up a few of them in a quinella as well.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 15-PAY UP BRO $3 EW
A lot of punters hate this horse, but we think we have him sussed out. Got burnt backing him a few times during his 3YO season when he kept running on and not winning, but the trick to him is he simply doesnít get past 1400M and we have successfully back and laid him quite a few times since then. Fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been promising, he loomed up like the winner last start, but just run out of condition. His 1400M stats are excellent, maybe just wants a little more give in the ground but think he will do something today at around $25 and make sure you throw him in the last leg of your quaddies for a nice approximate if you are live going into the last.
BEST PLACE: Race 7: 11-YOGI $1 WIN $4 PLACE
Talented improving stayer, who does drop a long way back in the run, but thankfully the Williams stable provides pace setters for these sort of things. Last run was excellent, track was favouring those on speed, dropped well back and ran on well out wide. That was off a 6 week break too so expect plenty of improvement. Hard to see him beating the short priced favourite the flying Melbourne Cup winner 1-ALMANDIN, but think he represents a really good place bet here at around $19/$4, with a token $1 to win just in case you know what happens.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 4-LEATHERíNíLACE at around $3.10
It is no secret that our Lay Of the Day is on a hot winning streak this spring, but we shall solider on. This one has been in excellent winning form, and normally we donít take on winning horses, but faces a tougher task today drawn wide as normally goes forward. There looks to be a fair bit of speed in this race, with the (6), (8),(11), (13), (16) all capable of going forward. Track was favouring on pacers at last start win as well. She is good, but suspect in a big field over the 1600M she might get set up for something running over the top of her late and happy to risk her as favourite in a big field.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into enough to hire a crane to lift a ten tonne pool into the backyard.
$5 ALL UP PLACE:
PLACE: Race 4: 5-MALIBU STYLE
PLACE: Race 7: 11-YOGI
PLACE: Race 8: 17-GIVE US A GO (emerg)
PLACE: Race 9: 4-CHARMED HARMONY
We are quite keen on the Race 7: 11-YOGI as a place bet at around $4 and lets try and create a little bit of mathematical multiplication magic around that runner. The value runner in Race 4 is the 5-MALIBU STYLE who was scratched last week (kept for this race?), and is the only leader in a field of back markers so might get a soft lead here. The super value runner in Race 8 is 17-GIVE US A GO, who admittedly we do tip a few too many times, but she keeps running well at good odds. Loomed up like the winner last start, fitter for the 2 runs in, and going around at $40/$11 today seems way over the odds. Come home on the tear away leader the 4-CHARMED HARMONY in the last, who will hopefully finally actually start today on a firm track (and not be scratched), and if we are live going into the last leg at least you know you will get a good run for your $5 outlay. Looking at an extremely ambitious $2500 or so for a measly $5 outlay.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. GO VISIT WINX AND SAY HELLO
Race 2: 10-HULME, 1-TAKING AIM, 2-SIRCONNI
Race 3: 9-MAIN STAGE, 4-SUNQUEST, 11-WEATHER WITH YOU
Race 4: 6-SILENT SEDITION, 5-MALIBU STYLE, 4-SPEITH
Race 5: 2-WINX, 3-VENTURA STORM, 1-HUMIDOR
Race 6: 5-WATCHMESPIN, 12-BRING ME ROSES, 8-ANGELIC SPIRIT
Race 7: 1-ALMANDIN, 11-YOGI, 9-CROCODILE ROCK
Race 8: 4-SWORD OF LIGHT, 16-PETITION, 17-GIVE US A GO (emerg), 9-MISSROCK
Race 9: 4-CHARMED HARMONY, 15-PAY UP BRO, 12-WYNDSPELLE