|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 6th OCT 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
We still have had very little rain around in Melbourne and the weather is clear and dry heading towards the weekend so this track should end up quite firm. Rail goes OUT 9M, and is moved in from the OUT 14M position of the additional Weds meeting now added to the spring schedule. We should get even racing and they should be able to win and run on OK, though towards the outside rail should be the pattern down the straight.
The feature Turnbull Stakes has ended up as Race 5 on this program, which is just plain silly. Assume the main reason is to not have a short priced favourite in the Quaddie legs, but it is the feature race and the star attraction for the day so think you just have to wear it really. This field has come up relatively strong, especially compared to some of the no hoper fields 2-WINX has been facing up in Sydney. We imagine that if grand pretender 3-MIGHTY BOSS wins this they will tear down the brand new grandstand in protest.
2-WINX has never really looked in trouble in Melbourne, except for that last 50M in last years Cox Plate. Often in her early Sydney runs each preparation there is that little flat spot just after they turn for home when she seems to be struggling to pick them up and gain momentum, but she always gets going. We have never really seen that in Melbourne, not sure if thatís because she is further along in her preparation, or over longer distances that suit better, or could even be that she is actually better the Melbourne way of going?
The other times she has looked vulnerable is when a horse has really bolted along in front and gained a break on them. That could be interesting as we have a few possible leaders here, and the pace looks pretty genuine. 6-DIVINE UNICORN (SCR from last week when had outside barrier), and 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS (awful ride last week at MV when short priced favourite) can both lead, with the 1-GRUNT (surely he canít be that much better at Flemington?) and 5-JON SNOW sitting handy. Would be interesting to see one of the leaders really fly along in front and shake this race up, but most are headed towards the Caulfield Cup and probably donít want the gut busting run. But would make it an interesting race with a tear away leader if any were brave enough to try.
Normally the Turnbull Stakes can be a good betting race as the weights change from the lead up WFA races so often it can mix up the form a bit. Obviously we need to put 2-WINX as a clear top pick and really hard to see anything here challenging her. There isnít much between the rest of the field though and any favourite out betting market would be interesting and maybe worth a punt. 4-KINGS WILL DREAM has been doing everything right this spring (except actually winning a race) and finally gets into a race where he gets some weight relief. Interested in the roughie 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS as the roughie to watch here, was too horrible to be true last week at MV, if he backs up and there are no issues think he is going to run better than the odds suggest. Tough, on pace stayer who looked to be on the way up before last start MV flop, and he has the big advantage of being 2000M race fit against his rivals here. 5-JON SNOW lobbing on the speed the other runner for the multiples. Will probably play some exotics around the roughie running better than people expect and sit back and enjoy seeing a champion racehorse going around.
This is a really good betting program and we are coming off a nice profit last week so we are going to double up the Betting Portfolio this week to $100 with plenty to bet on. We can spot plenty of good $10 to $20 chances in these fields and looks like a good day for value punters.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 5-BELLA MARTINI $15 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 9: 5-BELLA MARTINI#3-INVINCIBELLA, 10-LA BELLA DIOSA x $5 = 250%
Quality mare who we have just been waiting to find the right race this spring and this looks like this is the day today. Fitter for the two runs in, 1400M is as far as she wants, but she is a jump and race on speed type who has a quality sprint to win Group races. Really good here last start, when only just nosed out by I AM A STAR who has since won impressively. There is a bit of speed in this and she is best leading, so they will probably just have to take a sit behind the other leaders the (2), (16) from her wide barrier. She doesnít want a fast speed as 1400M is as far she wants, if the tempo is slow enough she should sprint away from these here. Back straight out at around $5.50 and save on the quinella with the main danger the strong finishing (3), and the value runner (10), who was super impressive first up and then fought on well here last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-THUNDERDOME $5 EW
Traditionally the UCI Stakes is pretty much the stand out worse betting race of the whole spring. When a full field of up and coming 3YOs step out to the 1800M for the first time, coming off a dozen different form lines pretty much anything can happen. Normally we just lay the favourite in this race as something normally improves at odds, but the favourite this year the 5-SAVOIE is actually going pretty well, so not keen to risk it. The (6) looks a pretty safe each way bet though in an open race, he has been racing really well, and most importantly will roll forward and make his own luck in a field of drop back stayers. Each way at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-BONS AWAY $10 EW
Quality sprinter who has had some injury issues but would win this on best form. Strong finishing sprinter and this race looks set up for him. Small field, drawn outside, outside rail likely to be best going and should be able to sit off the back here and run over them late down the outside. Has over raced down the straight before, so really important jockey drops back here and gets cover which is normal racing pattern. Watch the market for moves, if he is back on his game the money should come. Was really impressive 1st up running on late out wide and looks like back to best form. Solid each way bet at round $7 and suspect the money is going to come for this one.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-YULONG METEOR $5 EW
This one is showing a stack of potential, running off fast closing sectionals. Fitter for the 3 runs in and ran on really well here last start from well back behind one that was on speed and may be pretty good. Looped them and ran on well, but just couldnít reel in one with a better run, but stuck to the chase well. Drop back in distance is a slight concern, and has drawn outside so will need to be ridden back and cold, and ridden for luck, but jockey Walker is pretty good at doing that sort of stuff. Has the turn of foot to split through the field here and win this and looks to be one on the up. Back each way at around $15, but think she will get support so maybe get on today. Also taking a box quinella in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet in an open betting race.
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 2-WINX / 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS / 3,4,5,6,10 / 3,4,5,6,10 x $5 = 25%
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 2-WINX / 3,4,5,6,10 / 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS / 3,4,5,6,10 x $5 = 25%
Sometimes in these short priced favourite races the trifecta and first four can pay surprisingly well. We suspect the on pacers here, the 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS and 6-DIVINE UNICORN are going to run better than expected and put some value into the First Four. Mainly interested in the (7) who is hard, 2000M race fit, and should fight on well if he gets back to best form and provide a value place and first four chance.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 7-EAST INDIAMAN $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 3,7,11 x $6 = 200%
We are pretty keen at this one at odds early in the day. Last two runs both here this track and distance have been good. Two starts back was fighting on well on inside in funny race where a group of them swooped down the outside over the top of them. Last start here was wide, coming off a 7 week break, hit lead and fought on well. Should have plenty of improvement to come, and strikes a small field here where he should be able to lob on speed in a race with not that much pressure up front. Has been racing well in city grade and most of these are coming off maiden form. Really keen on this one today at a very nice $14, suspect he will at least hit the lead early in the straight and give you a good sight. Save on a value quinella on the three selections (3), (7), (11).
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 10-SHOKORA $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 6,9,10 x $3 = 100%
Another at odds we are keen on early in the day. This is a pretty even field and this one is fitter for the 2 runs in. Last start ran on well in a race where the two on pacers fought the race out, just seemed to finish on run towards the end, but should have plenty of improvement to come. Will sit back here in a small field but they should be able to run on OK and win. Is a Group 2 place getter this track and distance. Looks a great roughie bet at around $21, and again search for a value quinella on the three selections (6), (9), (10)
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 5-AMPHITRITE at around $3.60
This one has been racing pretty well and has won both starts this time in so hard to knock form. Can sit handy from a good barrier too and get every chance. Main reason for taking it on though is just this is a wide open field with plenty of lightly raced chances open to improvement and just prefer to back something at value and odds rather than backing the favourite in an open race. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
Race 8: QUINELLA: Race 8: 2,4,6,10,11 boxed x $5 = 50%
Plenty of value in this race. In an open race, take a wide box quinella with our roughie the strong finishing 6-YULONG METEOR, the in form 2-KRONE, the promising 4-ARISTIA, and the on speed value runners the 10-OREGON DREAMER and 11-THOUSAND WISHES.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. NO BET. NO BET. NO BET.
Race 2: 7-EAST INDIAMAN, 3-WILD PLANET, 11-CROSS LEGEND
Race 3: 6-ECKSTEIN, 10-SHOKORA, 9-HOLBIEN
Race 4: 6-THUNDERDOME, 5-SAVOIE, 10-INTO THE OBLIVION
Race 5: 2-WINX, 4-KINGS WILL DREAM, 7-TRAP FOR FOOLS
Race 6: 9-BONS AWAY, 7-FIRST AMONG EQUALS, 11-I AM EXCITED
Race 7: 11-HARRISON, 6-RISING RED, 7-MIDTERM
Race 8: 6-YULONG METEOR, 2-KRONE, 4-ARISTIA
Race 9: 5-BELLA MARTINI, 3-INVINCIBELLA, 10-LA BELLA DIOSA