|FLEMINGTON : TURNBULL STAKES - 5th October 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have had fine weather heading into the weekend, and there are few showers around for Saturday but not enough to affect the track rating. Last meeting here was the midweek meeting with the rail well out (OUT 14M), which was a dynamite leaders track, and last Saturday meeting on Makybe Diva Stakes day the rail was TRUE and the racing pattern also favoured those on speed and well drawn. As there has been little rain donít be surprised if the racing pattern favours those on speed again, although where they go down the straight is often anyoneís guess, but the outside was off at the last meeting.
For the feature Turnbull Stakes we should get a quite keen betting race and it is going to be interesting to see if the likes of 3-MR QUICKIE and 4-MYSTIC JOURNEY step up, as last weekís domination by 9YO horses in the feature WFA race was well documented. We donít have any issues with 4-MYSTIC JOURNEYís run last time in the Makybe Diva, she was never going to be the next WINX and probably actually prefer her now she has broken the winning streak so we can get some more realistic odds and the expectations are lowered a bit. She loomed up last start but just ran out of condition, whether that makes her a query over further distance or just better off for the run we will find out today, but really there was nothing wrong with that run. The 3-MR QUICKIE was an eye catcher running home late in the same race 1st up, and has a win strike rate that suggests a lot of upside, his drop back racing pattern is always a concern though and wouldnít be surprised if he races a bit more flat 2nd up and up in distance heading for longer races this spring.
Smallish field there and there doesnít seem to be much speed and be very wary of the 2-TRAP FOR FOOLS leading here. Think he is ready to do something 4th up, he has good statistics over the Flemington 2000M, and gets to run along in the lead here unchallenged, so definitely have a saver bet on him at least. Apart from that the 5-ROSTROPOVICH may go forward (listen for riding tactics), the 6-FINCHE is fit and will settle handy, and the 10-KENTUCKY BREEZE should box seat like he always does in his races, with the 1-HARTNELL not far away, but he just seems to be a length or two off these now. Suspect the winner is going to be something well drawn and sitting handy, so we are actually going to push for the upset here with the 10-KENTUCKY BREEZE. He is up in class again, but racing extremely well, hard and fit, box seats here, and happy to excuse the run last Friday as the leader has won the JRA Cup pretty much every year for about the last 6 years, so he had no hope when he didnít lead. Jockey Kah on board and happy to have something each way at around $26. The 4-MYSTIC JOURNEY the obvious danger, definitely not writing her off after one defeat and it will be really interesting to see how she runs today and where she ends up going this spring. The other danger is the definitely the 6-FINCHE who is 2000M fit, will settle handy and is lightly raced so might have a bumper spring ahead. Saver on the best roughie the leader 2-TRAP FOR FOOLS who should be ready to produce today (and elevate if racing pattern favours those on speed), in what looks a really intriguing race.
This actually looks a pretty confident betting day, there are a few races we want to stay out of such as Race 1 for the early 2YOs, and the Super Impose Stakes Race 5 where the 3YOs head out to 1800M for the first time which is just about the hardest race of the spring every year. There are also some very solid weight drops and turn arounds to watch out for today, namely Race 4: 9-HAUT BRION HER, Race 6: 2-DOTHRAKI who meets the 4-ZOUTORI 6kgs better today for their last meeting and Race 8: 4-VENTURA STORM. There is a long list of short priced favourites who we think look vulnerable or represent poor value, which is why you wonít see them in the selections. As for one of our old favourites, Race 2: VIOLATE, we have said before he grinds away and often wins on windy days that slow down the other horses. He has won 4 times from 37 races, but 3 times from 7 1st up starts and is 1st up today, and often goes well over the Flemington 1400M, but we just canít back him at below $4.
BEST WIN : Race 2: 7-MUSIC BAY $6 WIN
BEST WIN : Race 2: 12-RICH ITCH $4 WIN
Pretty standard Flemington 1400M race and think these two stand out as the main winning chances. We have been keen to follow the (7) after a good 1st up run when she had to go wide and early and hit the lead in the straight and just peaked on her run. Note that she has been SCR since and had some sort of set back meaning she has had 5 weeks between runs, but if she shows her best form she should sit on speed here with not much pressure and sprint away from these. Wary of the (12) though, 1st try over the 1400M, but has been racing really well and excellent effort here down the straight last start when carrying weight and in the worse ground out wide on a day that was favouring leaders. He does drop back though so will need them to be running on OK. Happy to back these two straight out at $5 and $11 respectively.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-ANGELIC RULER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-ANGELIC RULER, 2-SPANISH WHISPER x $2
These black type mares races are normally pretty good to bet on and once mares find their form they tend to keep it. This one has a stack of ability and was a beaten favourite a few times in these sort of races last preparation. She does drop back, but has a great finishing burst and she was unlucky 1st up when held up for clear running early in the straight and then finished on really well once clear. She might go on with it this spring after showing so much promise. Always wary of fit on speed mares in these races proven at the class, and still kicking ourselves for dropping off the (2) last start as she is one we normally follow. Back the (6) each way at around $7 and save on a quinella with the (2).
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 9-KING OF LEOGRANCE $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 8: 9-KING OF LEOGRANCE#4,10,12,13 x $4 = 100%
Promising imported stayer who has been building to a win and was hopelessly unlucky here last start when held up for runs for most of the straight and only got clear late to just miss. That was a bunched finish and probably not much between many of them, but like that he is drawn out today and just looks to be going better than most of these. Back straight out at around $5 and save on a quinella in an open field which will pay well if the short priced favourite doesnít live up to expectations. The 10-WOLFE should lead here and was held up for clear runs last start at Caulfield, the 4-VENTURA STORM is extremely well weighted here against the others coming through the same race, the 12-TE AKAU CALIBURN was excellent from last at first Australian start (and has had a name change since), and the 13-THE GOOD FIGHT is fitter for the 3 runs in and made good ground last start, so plenty of good value chances away from the favourite.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 10-KENTUCKY BREEZE $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2,4,6,10 boxed x $3 = 50%
We are totally playing favourites as we have had a good spring following this one and he is looking to cause an upset here up in class in the feature race today. Like fit, in form, 2000M horses in this race and remember itís not WFA so he gets some weight relief from the proven WFA runners. Well drawn, goes well here, will box seat and put himself into the race at the right time and worth a little something each way at around $26 especially if some of the more favoured runners donít live up to expectations. There is a good value quinella to be found in this race as well, with the favourite 4-MYSTIC JOURNEY, the improving 6-FINCHE and suspect the 2-TRAP FOR FOOLS is going to lead and prove hard to run down today at nice odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 3-DESERVED $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 3,6,8,10,17 boxed x $5 = 50%
This is an absolutely wide open race in a big field of 3YOs and we have pretty much tipped a $1000+ trifecta in the selections. The (3) was really good last start, was just held up for clear running for a while in the straight, but once clear really worked home well. Fitter for the 2 runs in and can go forward here and make his own luck in a race with no speed. Looks a great last race get out bet at around $21. Stacks of value in the quinella here, especially as we donít like the short priced favourite, with the likes of the consistent and improving 8-LEVEN LASS, the 10-PRESENTLY who has a lot of ability but just hasnít quite put it all together yet, the 17-AFFAIR TO REMEMBER who was flying home late last start and hit a dead end and the consistent on speed 6-EXCUSED.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 9: 7-MIAMI BOUND at around $2.70
Spruik horse coming off impressive country wins, but coming into a huge capacity field of 16 up and coming 3YOs many of whom are coming along OK. Really concerned about the inside barrier here, does normally drop back in the run and there doesnít seem to be a great amount of speed in this race. So they either have to go forward early, or drop back and ride for luck in a big field, and either way think there is plenty of value about some other runners in this race and prefer to back them.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more
TRIFECTA: Race 4: 2,6 / 2,6,8,9 / 1,2,6,8,9,11 x $5 = 20.83%
We think the 6-ANGELIC RULER and 2-SPANISH WHISPER should fight this race out and in an open betting market the trifecta might pay OK, if the leader the 9-HAUT BRION HER sticks on, and something like the fit in form 11-DAWN DAWN lobs into the finish.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. YOU CAN SLEEP IN.
Race 2: 7-MUSIC BAY, 12-RICH ITCH, 6-ROMANCER
Race 3: 13-BROOLYN HUSTLE, 1-SEBRAKATE, 11-LADY NATURALISTE
Race 4: 6-ANGELIC RULER, 2-SPANISH WHISPER, 8-FIDELIA
Race 5: 2-HUNTLY CASTLE, 15-RECKONING, 5-ADELAIDE ACE
Race 6: 7-SUNLIGHT, 2-DOTHRAKI, 1-SANTA ANNA LANE
Race 7: 10-KENTUCKY BREEZE, 4-MYSTIC JOURNEY, 6-FINCHE
Race 8: 9-KING OF LEOGRANCE, 10-WOLFE, 3-VENTURA STORM
Race 9: 3-DESERVED, 8-LEVEN LASS, 17-AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (emerg), 10-PRESENTLY