|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES Ė 3rd October 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE/WINDY- Rail: OUT 7M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine weather heading into the weekend and a warm and windy day forecast for Saturday, so assume we are going to end up on a rather firm track here. Last meeting here several races were won by horses coming from last on the turn (which is pretty unusual), and with a strong wind today suspect the racing pattern will favour those running on late and those on-speed may struggle to win. Middle to outside faster likely to be faster down the straight trying to get cover from the wind.
For the feature Turnbull Stakes we are starting to get towards the serious end of the spring, and this is a seriously good field and expect to see a few of these step up today as they head toward major spring targets. The key to this race is that it is set weights and penalties and not WFA like most of the lead up races these horses have been coming through. There looks to be very little speed in the race, with the 11-HARLEM leading and the 12-FINCHE crossing from an outside barrier and the 5-DALASAN probably goes forward from a good inside barrier, as does the 13-DJANGO FREEMAN. Maybe the 1-VOW AND DECLARE or the 4-WARNING settles more forward today? Either way there looks to be very little pressure up front here at all, and that might not suit some of the more solid staying types and probably want to look for the horse with the short sharp turn of foot here.
Going through the field, the 1-VOW AND DECLARE seems pretty well weighted as the Melbourne Cup winner against the next few in the field, he has been raced quite sparingly since last year and he made solid ground late 1st up here when not pushed out. He ran 4th in this race last year when 1st up against many of these and has the benefit of a run this preparation. Will probably settle midfield or better and drawn to run on down the middle of the track so think he is actually a rough chance in this. The 2-KINGS WILL DREAM is a proven WFA campaigner who won this race last year when 3rd up with 54.5 kgs, up 3kgs this year, and also ran 3rd in this race the year before that. 1st up run was excellent and then hampered by a broken down horse last start so can probably forgive the run Ė his lead in form is probably equivalent to the previous two years when he has been right in the finish. Outside barrier draw had him at the back of the field last start, good draw here has him sitting handy and he has the turn of foot to win this off a slow tempo. Slightly concerned about a very firm track for a horse with previous issues, but looks very well placed here. The 3-SURPRISE BABY is about as sparingly raced as you can get, probably should have won the Melbourne Cup last year when dropped too far back in the run, and excellent 1st up run around MV which probably didnít suit. Won the Bart Cummings this day last year, and the extra distance and big Flemington track should be a huge plus. Worth noting that he had to win that race last year to qualify for the Melbourne Cup, and is safely in this year, so was probably a lot more forward last year. We havenít seen the best of him, and just looks to have so much talent, and will drop back and run on which should be the racing pattern. Just wish they hadnít drawn barrier 1, in a slowly run race trapped at the back of the big field on the inside just turns us off enough else would have made him top pick. The 4-WARNING won the 3YO 1800M race here this day last year and went on to win the Derby so does seem to like Flemington. He seemed to struggle just a bit in his Sydney autumn campaign but was better when he got back to this way of going in Adelaide. He looked extremely dour last preparation, but his 1st up run here was actually quite forward and he made good ground late. Probably still needs one more run, but likely to run a lot better than the market suggests. The 5-DALASAN creates a lot of interest here, good barrier, will sit handy in a slowly run race, and has had the three runs in so might be more forward than many of his rivals here. Jockey Kah in flying form, and beat most of these home last start. Extremely frustrating horse to follow, but he was fighting out the finish here last start before fading and get the impression he is going to do something today.
The 6-MASTER OF WINE is a boom horse that needs to prove he is up to them in the Melbourne spring. Very disappointing first up, but hit the line well here in the Makybe Diva last start. Inside barrier and can probably settle first half of the field. On a Cups path so it is just about time to show some form, and just want to see him put it all together in Melbourne before getting on Ė actually think he is under the odds in this field based on his form. He is half the odds of the (5) and they finished right alongside each other last start and the other one probably has the better career stats so think he is poor value here. The 7-KING OF LEOGRANCE is on a light Melbourne Cup preparation, only likely to have a few lead in runs so should be pretty forward here and watch the market. Drawn out, drop back and will be running on late and has the ability to win this 1st up. The 8-AKATU is an imported stayer showing potential who was only even first up and looks outclassed in this. The 9-VERRY ELLEEGANT is so incredibly annoying to spell out, and can be even more annoying to back. Extremely talented, but we werenít even slightly surprised to see her beaten last start as a short priced favourite Ė small field, dry track and 1600M simply isnít her thing. Tough win 1st up when a super-fast speed suited and excellent 2000M stats. Well established she prefers some give in the ground though and we are looking at a very firm track today, and although she is drawn to run late down the outside, not sure they are going to go fast enough in this race for her. Genuine chance as she is probably the best performed at this level out of these, but hard to back her with confidence. The 10-OCEANX is a quality staying mare who will probably pick up a good race somewhere this spring, fitter for the 2 runs in and getting out to a more suitable distance and is probably due to improve, drawn out to drop back and run on, maybe a rough place chance if looking for a big exotic.
The 11-HARLEM doesnít win out of turn, but when he does it is normally at Flemington and over 2000M, having run 4th, 1st and 1st last three attempts at the Australian Cup here. Both of those wins were 3rd up too, and despite not winning often he is actually predictable from a form point of view, 3rd up, Flemington, dry track and 2000M is when he shows his best. His two runs in have been good, he hit the line well 1st up at Caulfield and then led here last start and fought on well. He is drawn out, but can go forward here and sit just behind the lead and get into the middle of the track first, and is quite well weighted here under the weight scale dropping 4.5kgs having carried level weights with most of these last start. Genuine rough chance here and make sure you include him in your quaddies. The 12-FINCHE just missed in this race last year, solid on speed staying type who was good 1st up in Sydney. Note that last year he was coming off three runs in and had won his lead up run so was a lot more forward, he has drawn wide here and probably goes forward and sets the speed and likely to be around the finish but suspect he finds one better today. The 13-DJANGO FREEMAN has been going along OK, but hardly setting the track on fire, will settle handy from a good barrier and he is a bit of an untapped runner going into this, he might improve onto a big track and 2000M so maybe watch for market support but hard to have on current form against these. The 14-SUPERSTORM has a stack of potential, fitter for the 2 runs in but stepping up very sharply in distance seems a strange preparation for this. No luck in the Rupert Clarke when full of running and hit a dead end and looked to be really on the up with 3YO autumn preparation. Will drop back and run on from outside barrier, so racing pattern will suit, but just seems a big ask out to 2000M for the first time against this field. The 15-TOFFEE TONGUE is a staying mare with spring potential, fitter for the 2 runs in and made good ground 1st up. Likely to drop back from inside barrier and seems to prefer a wet track.
This is a pretty fascinating race to go through the form in detail on, lots of form lines and plenty of talent and you could probably make a case for most of these. Much to our surprise we are going to put the 5-DALASAN on top here, can be a frustrating horse to follow, but will settle forward on a slow tempo in this and think he can present at the right time to win this and has the turn of foot early in the straight. Like that he has had one more run in than all of this rivals. Was fighting out the finish last start before fading late and think with improvement he will be right in the finish here. The 3-SURPRISE BABY as the main danger, be really interesting to see what he does today as he really could be anything storming home late, but just wish he didnít drawn barrier 1. Have to respect the 2-KINGS WILL DREAM from a good barrier with a good turn of foot at the right time in a race he has gone well in previously. Best roughie is that quaddie breaker the 11-HARLEM out to his specialist Flemington 2000M distance. Respect for the 9-VERRY ELLEEGANT, will be interesting to what the market does with her, and stack of others who can run a race, particularly the 1-VOW AND DECLARE and 7-KING OF LEOGRANCE. Suspect we will see the likely spring stars step up today, but they may actually be the ones running into the placings rather than the winner. Good odds on offer for whatever you land on here in a very even betting race.
This looks like a favouriteís day and the first few in the betting should fight out most of the races with few surprises, though Races 5,7,9 are pretty open. We have always thought the 3YO 1800M race on this program was the worse race to do the form on for the whole spring, so whoever moved it from early in the day to be last race of the day and last leg of the quaddie gets a massive thumbs down from us. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-PERFECT JEWEL $7 WIN
Class mare who impressed with her 1st up win and then not disgraced when set a massive task 2nd up and up 400M into Group 1 open WFA grade. Fought it out with a proven WFA star last start at MV and they seriously distanced the rest of the field. There are a few that are going well here, but she looks to be in flying form, and not too fussed about the drop back in distance to the 1400M, drawn wide and running on late which is likely to be the race pattern. Back straight out at around $5 and really should just about win.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 12-LEGIONNAIRE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 12-LEGIONNAIRE#10-FASCINO, 4-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER x $3 = 150%
On pacer whose two runs this time in have been excellent and looks ready to win. Well drawn, up to the 1400M suits and won his only other start this track and distance. He is up in class here, but looks to have a fitness edge on most of his rivals in this and just looks ready to win. Will probably camp second behind the leader 4-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER and looks a decent each way bet at around $8. Save on a quinella with the leader and the 10-FASCINO who was unlucky running into a dead-end last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-DIVINE DIOSA $5 EW
Wide open 3YO fillies race but this one has been racing consistently and should go forward here and sit behind the speed out wide in a race where a lot of the field will drop well back in the run and there doesnít look to be that much pressure up front here. Beat home the favourite in this, the (5) three starts back, worked hard out wide early at MV and then in a messy race at Caulfield last start she was last and had to make an early and wide long run at them and fought out the finish extremely well to the line and kept coming. She is a bit more exposed than most of these and hard and fit and should give you a pretty good run for your money today at around $18.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 5-DALASAN $4 EW
He can be a frustrating horse to follow but suspect he is going to do something today. Fitter for the 3 runs in, might be a bit more forward than most of his key rivals, can sit handy today in a race with little speed and he was fighting out the finish here last start before fading late so think has a fair bit of improvement to come. Most importantly he can sit handy and show a turn of foot at the right time here early in the straight in what might be a slowly run race. Each way at around $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 19-GOOD IDEA (emerg) $2 EW
The two favourites in this race, the promising stayers the 12-SCHABAU, 2-SHARED AMBITION look the two to beat in this race, but there probably isnít much between the rest of the field and this one is a proven stayer who might run a race at odds if he can get into the field as third emergency (and there are two scratchings already, so almost there). Should be ready to show something now with two runs in and out to a staying trip, took off early before the turn last start at Caulfield, and he ran a really good second in the Adelaide Cup earlier in the year. Might still need one more run, but probably runs better than the $67 odds suggest and of course has the extra advantage of carrying the yellow and black checks colours in the Bart Cummings.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 17-DALGARNO (emerg) $2.50 EW
Messy last race as we try and line up all the 3YOs on the way up out to 1800M for the first time, so makes sense to look for some value. This one is first emergency, and actually still a maiden, but then again so was WARNING when he won this race last year. Fitter for the two runs in and the 1800M run here last start and he actually loomed up like the winner there and reckon he just ran out of condition late and was swamped. Can sit a bit more forward than many of these and suspect he is going to present at the right time in the straight and give you a decent run for your money here at around $27 Ė we just need to get him into the field though to begin with.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 14-YOUNG WERTHER at around $4
There is no great analytical science to this, this race is always wide open in a big field of progressing 3YOs and basically you would be mad to back the favourite, no matter who it was. Coming off a soft maiden win and does look a stayer on the rise, but there are also 19 others in this field who you could probably say the same about and who knows who is going to be best out to 1800M for the first time. Just prefer to risk at around $4 and looks for some value instead.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy a border exemption to pick up a luxury yacht.
EARLY QUAD: (Races 2,3,4,5) 7,8 / 4,10,12 / 4,6 / 4,5,6,16 x $5 = 10.41%
The Early Quad looks very achievable today, trick may be getting a big enough dividend to make it worthwhile. The favourite the 8-SEPTEMBER RUN really should win the first leg, but throw in the main danger the 7-MINHAAJ as back up. In the second leg one of the three selections, 12-LEGIONNAIRE, 10-FASCINO, 4-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER really should win so we are actually pretty confident about getting through the first two legs. There are three main chances in the third leg, but we are going to narrow it down to the 6-SANTA ANNA LANE and 4-TOFANE and foolishly leave out the 2-ZOUTORI, mainly because we want to throw some roughies into the last leg which is where the value will come in a big open field. Main roughies of interest there are the 4-DIVINE DIOSA, 6-A PINCH OF LUCK and 16-STARELLE, and put the favourite 5-SUCCEED INDEED in but that dividend will be pretty skinny.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET
Race 2: 8-SEPTEMBER RUN, 7-MINHAAJ, 4-ITZHOT
Race 3: 12-LEGIONNAIRE, 10-FASCINO, 4-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER
Race 4: 6-SANTA ANNA LANE, 4-TOFANE, 2-ZOUTORI
Race 5: 4-DIVINE DIOSA, 5-SUCCEED INDEED, 6-A PINCH OF LUCK
Race 6: 12-SCHABAU, 2-SHARED AMBITION, 19-GOOD IDEA (emerg), 4-STEEL PRINCE
Race 7: 5-DALASAN, 3-SURPRISE BABY, 2-KINGS WILL DREAM
Race 8: 6-PERFECT JEWEL, 5-MADAM ROUGE, 3-PRETTY BRAZEN
Race 9: 17-DALGARNO (emerg), 9-THE BRUMBY, 3-ALCYONE, 11-JOHNNY GET ANGRY