|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 2nd October 2021|
|Track: SOFT(6) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
We have a fair bit of rain going into the weekend, with a few showers around on Saturday and we should get a genuine wet track. Rail is OUT 9M, and expect them to be coming off the rails here in the straight and racing pattern will probably favour those running on out wide and late. Down the straight they probably come middle to outside and it might be an advantage to be drawn out wide.
In the feature Turnbull Stakes, there are quite a few runners with very little chance, and a few top liners going head to head in a very lopsided race. Remember this is set weights and penalties and not WFA which means the genuine WFA performers have to give weight to other horses and that does mean those down in the weights sometimes have an advantage. There is a distinct lack of speed here, but assume the 9-MOUNT POPPA will go forward and lead, from the 3-INCENTIVISE and maybe the 8-COLETTE ridden more positively today, with the 7-PERSAN sitting handy, and super mare 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT probably doesnít settle too far back today. One important note, if you look through the list of winners in this race over the last 20 years it has invariably been a runners-on race.
The 1-SIR DRAGONET is the reigning Cox Plate winner who ran a lot better than the market expected 1st up when he loomed into the race nicely at odds. Better on wet ground, better over 2000M and better on a big track so plenty to like here. Did take a few runs in to find best form last preparation but he seems to be a lot more forward this time in. Drawn out and will be suited running home late down the middle of the track and looks a strong winning chance here, but does have to give weight to the whole field which may be the issue here. The 2-EXPLOSIVE JACK managed to cross state borders last year to win the TAS, ATC and SA Derby, and only just failed to add in QLD Ė and never had to quarantine once. Still waiting to see how far he goes on this spring after such a busy autumn, but he worked home really well 1st up along the rails so, so far so good. Proven on wet ground, inside draw again maybe not ideal especially in what may be a muddling speed race, and because of his extensive Derby collection probably doesnít look that well weighted against these, but rough place chance. The 3-INCENTIVISE could be one of the stars of the spring coming off sensational QLD winter form. Measured up here in the Makybe Diva and jockey gave him rave reviews after the race saying there was plenty of improvement to come. Has won his last 7 races now and to be honest this is the sort of race where the winning streak could come to an end. Will go forward and sit behind a slow speed, he probably hits the lead early in the straight here, and whilst he has been able to run away from them in QLD on-speed, just suspect he is going to be vulnerable here late for something coming down the middle of the track. Strong winning chance, not sure he is a great betting proposition though. The 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT is a straight out champion with a huge will to win, well exposed that she is better on wet ground and bigger tracks and gets much to suit today, especially with her late run on running pattern. She will probably settle a lot closer in the run today, and whilst the (3) will probably lead early in the straight, good chance she could run him down late. The 5-JOHNNY GET ANGRY runs his best races here at Flemington and is last yearís VRC Derby winner coming off an injury lay off. Been taking it easy this time in, and finally stepping up in distance to a suitable trip today, but outclassed against these.
The 6-CHAPADA is a ridiculously frustrating non-winner, who can often loom into the race like the winner and still get beaten. Drops back and needs a fast speed to run on late, 1st up run was pretty good in a bunched finish, 2nd up he was losing ground late. Better on dry ground so unlikely to figure here but maybe a rough exotic chance based on the placed 6 from 10 at the track and 5 from 7 at the distance form stats. The 7-PERSAN was flying through the grades last year as part of a super tough staying campaign that ended with him running a huge race in the Melbourne Cup. Given a soft winter campaign to try and qualify for the Cup, and just simply wasnít at this best. Given another break and his 1st up run was really good when he loomed up like the winner, but got bogged down with his big weight. Still suspect he may be better with hard racing like he was last spring, but think that 1st up run showed plenty of promise and camped on the speed here with a weight advantage he is probably the best rough chance in this race. Just a shame he is meeting three top liners, else think he would be a genuine upset chance here. The 8-COLETTE is one we have had an eye on all spring, and did get tempted to dabble in early Caulfield Cup markets as she looks a likely type. Two runs this time in have been excellent, both times dropping too far back over shorter trips in races where those up front fought out the finish and coming home hard and late in eye catching runs. Both of those runs were on unsuitable firm tracks and she gets her preferred wet track today, Oliver can probably be more positive today and worth noting she did race handy in her successful Sydney campaign earlier this year. She looks extremely well suited here with the weight pull off the more established performers and a solid winning chance. Note vet check for a likely foot abscess Friday afternoon which is a major concern. The 9-MOUNT POPPA is a spring target stayer still doing warm up laps over shorter distances, wasnít too far off these last start and does get the best of the weight pulls out of that race. Still going to need more distance and a few runs to show his best. The 10-YOUNG WERTHER got thrown into the VRC Derby last year as favourite at only his 3rd start and ran extremely well, worked his way through the staying 3YO races over autumn and was competitive in most of them. Stuck on really well 1st up here and has a definite preference for big tracks. No issues with the wet track and he will probably be the one working home best late, maybe just needs one more run but not hopeless either.
This is an unusual race to line up, with clear class horses in form at the top of the market, and early spring stayers ready to improve at the bottom, and not actually sure the price difference should be so great between some of these. The 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT was super tough to win this race last year on a dry track, and she just knows how to win. Wet track suits, small field means not as many traffic issues and she seems to be getting better and better with more racing after having a few quirks earlier on in her career. She looks the one to beat and will have the advantage of coming home outside her main danger the 3-INCENTIVISE which is likely to be the racing pattern and a big plus. Definite chance to the 3-INCENTIVISE, but suspect he gets left vulnerable here for something coming home late, but who knows he might just dash away from them early in the straight like his QLD wins and keep on rising through the grades. Initially we were planning to push strongly for the 8-COLETTE as the one to cause the upset today, as she does seem ready to do something on a favourable wet track, but think she has been well spotted in the market with few genuine chances in this and looming vet check is a major concern. So instead we will put in the 7-PERSAN for third at odds, his form last spring was sensational, and really liked his first up run here with weight so he might be heading back to his best. He will settle handy and fight this race out for the length of the straight and might actually be capable of causing the upset in this. Respect for the 1-SIR DRAGONET. Betting strategy is to take some exotics with 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT to win and 7-PERSAN to place and going to have something each way on the 7-PERSAN as the value roughie in this.
Some large and very even fields today, so this looks a sensational value betting program. There looks to be lots of great long shots and suspect there will be plenty of value place getters and winners so might be a good day to chase wide exotics for big dividends. Also plenty to bet on in Sydney so this does look like a busy day on the couch punting. We are going to double up the suggested Betting Portfolio to $100 and mix up the bet types and have a bet in most races, not because we are overly confident, but mainly because we think there is a lot of value around and a good chance to have a crack at a few at odds and see how we go. As always please bet responsibly, and remember you donít have to bet big to win big, you just take a bet that is going to pay big.
BEST BET: Race 4: 1-ZOUTORI $12 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 1-ZOUTORI, 3-KEMALPASA x $3 = 300%
Classy straight track sprinter who has measured up to much better opposition than these. Four time winner this track and distance and ran on well late here 1st up behind a few of these and meets both the (2) and (6) 3kgs better off. Sure to have improved off that run, wider and late will probably be the racing pattern today and looks the one to beat here at around $3.50. Back straight out and really he should win, but be wary of the other straight track specialist the 3-KEMALPASA who might lead and kick with little pressure up front here so save on a quinella just in case.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 1-INGRATIATING, 12-GIMME PAR
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 1,12 / 1,12 / 3,4,5,8 / 3,4,5,7,8,10 x $5 = 12.5%
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 1,12 / 3,4,5,8 / 1,12 / 3,4,5,7,8,10 x $5 = 12.5%
RUNNING DOUBLE: Race 5: 1,12 / 3,8,9,10,13 x $10 = 100%
We are going to something a bit different here and play with some exotics, a First Four and a Running Double around the 1-INGRATIATING, 12-GIMME PAR who both look great winning chances down the straight. The 1-INGRATIATING is a classy drop back sprinter who looked the winner here last start but maybe just finished on his run 2nd up, and the 12-GIMME PAR has been racing really well finishing off late off fast speeds and is proven down the straight. So we are going to take two bets, one a First Four anchoring them in the placings and hoping something at value like the 5-RANVEER or 8-KALLOS gets into the placings, and also a running double into a swag of value long shots in the mares races such as the 8-ECUMENICAL, 10-SNICKERDOODLEDANDY and 13-BARBIEíS FOX. This is basically a super charged Wonder Bet as we couldnít squeeze it into a $5 outlay and looking at some nice dividends if one of these bets lands.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 2-CELESTIAL FURY $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 2,3,4,5,9 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have the Super Impose Stakes, where a whole heap of 3YOs head out to 1800M from a swag of different form lines marked as the worse race to bet in every spring. Lots of different form lines, lots of horses improving as they step up in distance and impossible to line them up and have a serious bet so need to look for some value runners. The 2-CELESTIAL FURY is fitter for the 2 runs in, was a winner here at his first start, and was working home nicely here last start in a race where the two leaders fought out the race and on-pacers dominated (3 x $100 shots placed in the last three races on-speed on that day!). Better for the 1800M run and drawn wide to run on down the middle of the track so looks a nice each way bet at around $15. Box up a value quinella with the 4-FOOTLIGHTS who was very disappointing here last start, but super unlucky the start before so give one more chance, the impressive last start winner 5-EURO DANDY, the 3-CHARACTER leading a group of stayers, and the 9-TURN IT UP TOMMMY who might improve at this track and distance considering the stableís success in this sort of races.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-ADELE AMOUR $6 EW
Looks to be a very even field for the Edward Manifold this year for the 3YO fillies, and whilst the 2-ELUSIVE EXPRESS was excellent running on late last start and looks the one to beat, donít think she is much value at $3. The 5-ADELE AMOUR surprised when she jumped and led all the way to win at long odds 1st up this time in at Sandown, but she beat a smart one that day who has since won very impressively and is heading to the VRC Oaks. She fought very hard behind that one again last start. We have a big field here, but she will jump and sit on-speed from a perfect barrier and make her own luck, and she is coming through very strong form lines so should give you a pretty good run here at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-TRALEE ROSE $6 EW
Extremely promising stayer who is aiming for the Melbourne Cup and impressed with a few easy as you like wins over summer. Fitter for the 2 runs back in and she has been competitive in both of them, jumping and sitting on-speed and should be ready to do something today out to the 2500M and back to Flemington. She just seems to be more forward than most of these, and in better form. Outside barrier is a concern, but she is a go forward type so hopefully the jockey can slowly work his way across the field and settle in the first few. Back each way at around $7, and note we are also having something each way on a roughie in this race, and also a box quinella in the Wonder Bet in a big even field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 13-BARBIEíS FOX $3 WIN, $4 PLACE
There are some really good odds about some pretty decent horses in the Group 2 mares race. This one has been super consistent, trying her best in every race, and they have been riding her forward. She has drawn wide today and hoping they ride her back as she has a big finishing burst down the outside when ridden like that. She is also much better on tracks with some give in them which she gets today and probably a favourable racing pattern. Had a let-up into last run so plenty of improvement to come off that and you are getting $81 here about a horse that has run top 4 in the city at her last 5 starts which is pretty amazing odds. Definitely worth a dabble at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-PERSAN $4 EW
We have two short priced favorites in the feature Turnbull Stakes who look likely to fight the finish out, but have a feeling this one might run a race today at odds. Impressed through the spring last year with his staying performances, and just didnít come up earlier in the year. Really liked the run 1st up when the loomed into the race like the winner at odds with a big weight, and he should camp on speed here with some give in the ground and fight out this finish pretty well at $21. Back to his best form he is some chance of an upset in this.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 15-THE GOOD FIGHT $3 EW
Tough wet track stayer who ran some really good races here over winter. Ran last week in the Mornington Cup on an unsuitable firm track and he ran into the race nicely on the turn as the widest runner, but just quite didnít finish it off. Back to a bigger track here and give in the ground on a wet track expect to see some improvement, and he loves a big field and solid staying tempo and runs out these sorts of trips down the middle of the track, so he is worth something each way at the long odds of $67
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 8-GUNSTOCK at around $3
As we said in the Race 2 bets, this is often an awful race to bet on with a stack of different form lines and 3YOs stepping out to the 1800M for the first time. This one was good winning 1st up, was wide all the way and does look to have ability, but you simply donít want to back the favourite in a race like this, especially not at $3 and prefer to go looking for value.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into an international holiday to an exotic overseas location e.g. Tasmania
Race 8: QUINELLA: 8,9,12,13,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have already backed the 13-TRALEE ROSE each way and the 15-THE GOOD FIGHT as a roughie, but letís also take a wide quinella in a very open race. The 12-REALM OF FLOWERS is a very promising stayer who might do something on wet ground out to 2500M, the 8-PORT GUILLAUME is an import who ran well last start and might improve again up in distance and the 9-MIAMI BOUND is a horse we normally ignore, but think she just wants a wet track and she is actually unbeaten at this distance (despite not wining that often) and placed 5 from 8 at Flemington so might also do something at odds.
Races 6,7,8,9: 2,3,7,8,9,10,13,16 / 4 / 8,9,12,13,15 / 1,9,13,14 = 12.5%
This is an extremely tricky quaddie as apart from the main race the other legs are wide open, so we punters will need help if there is an upset in the Turnbull Stakes. Even though the 9-ANNAVISTO is the one to beat in the first leg, load up with value runners like the 8-ECUMENICAL, 10-SNICKERDOODLEDANDY, 13-BARBIEíS FOX, 16-LOVE SENSATION and go wide in a very open race. Think we are pretty safe to anchor the champion mare in the second leg 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT and that gives us flexibility to go wide again in the third leg. Just hope we get some value somewhere and come home on the 14-JUST FOLK, 13-MR TIPLA, 9-TAVIDANCE and 1-AYSAR in a tricky last leg.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. GET DOUBLE VAXXED
Race 2: 2-CELESTIAL FURY, 4-FOOTLIGHTS, 5-EURO DANDY
Race 3: 5-ADELE AMOUR, 2-ELUSIVE EXPRESS, 12-GLINT OF HOPE
Race 4: 1-ZOUTORI, 3-KEMALPASA, 6-AWAY GAME
Race 5: 1-INGRATIATING, 12-GIMME PAR, 5-RANVEER
Race 6: 9-ANNAVISTO, 8-ECUMENCIAL, 13-BARBIEíS FOX
Race 7: 4-VERRY ELLEEGANT, 3-INCENTIVISE, 7-PERSAN
Race 8: 13-TRALEE ROSE, 12-REALM OF FLOWERS, 15-THE GOOD FIGHT
Race 9: 14-JUST FOLK, 13-MR TIPLA, 9-TAVIDANCE