|FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 1st October 2022|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Fine sunny weather heading into the weekend and we should get a GOOD(4) track and maybe even getting onto the firmer side with fine weather forecast. Rail is OUT 9M and we should get even racing, down the straight the middle to outside will be the better going (though they probably stick closer to the inside in the 2YO race). There is a fair bit to bet on today and most of these races have plenty of winning chance so we are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio and have a bet in most of the races.
Turnbull Stakes Preview
For the feature Turnbull Stakes, we have a race strangely devoid of top liners this year, considering the likes of WINX, VERRY ELLEEGANT, SUNLINE, NORTHERLY, ELVSTROEM has all won this race in the last 20 years this year it does look more like a Coogny Handicap than a Group 1 2000M heading into spring. Worth noting that no horse has won this race from barrier 10 or higher in the last 15 years (not sure how many fields had more than 10 runners, but most would have), so barriers may be important here in a big even field. Large field, these are a very even lot, so will be a good betting race and weights and penalties are going to come into play without a stand out class horse in the field. The speed looks to be Sydney visitor 1-KNIGHTS ORDER leading, from the 4-PROFONDO and 6-SMOKINí ROMANS sitting handy and there really doesnít seem to be much speed outside of that, so those well drawn and sitting near the lead are probably the way to go here.
Runner by runner comments:
1-KNIGHTS ORDER is a proven front runner stayer who seems to have come back in career best form this time in with a first up win on a very heavy track and a good on-speed effort last start. Probably is better on a wet track and ends up with top weight here and probably better suited in a handicap though this isnít the strongest race. Drawn wide and likely to lead, but canít see there being much pressure up front here. Likely to find one better today, but form is better than most of these and is probably over the odds at $34 so a good roughie for exotics and shouldnít be far off in the finish.
2-DUAIS is a serious Cups contender searching for a dry track and fitter and ready to do something now with two runs in and up in distance. Well drawn and can race more handy from a good barrier here today and did win the Australian Cup last run this track and distance. Strong chance in this, maybe question is if she might need one more run and hard to evaluate her form this time in. Winning chance but not really value at $5 at the moment.
3-NUMERIAN SCR to race in Sydney.
4-PROFONDO has a fair bit of ability and his form this time in isnít as bad as it looks on paper. Definitely needs the dry track here today, he showed some fight first two runs this time in when contesting the finish both times around 200M out, and then forgive last start when he made a run early closest to the inside in the worse going and stopped on the run. Well drawn and can race handy here, he has more class than most of these and last time he struck a good track he won the Spring Champion in Sydney over 2000M this time last year. He has been contesting tougher races than these, behind ZAAKI and ANAMOE. Strong chance here.
5-GREAT HOUSE is a genuine staying type who ran a great race 1st up here carrying a big weight and has run some great races in feature staying events. Drawn wide and likely to drop back, question might be if just needs one more run to peak this time in and probably better with a bit more give in the ground.
6-SMOKINí ROMANS is a tough gritty stayer who seems to be improving with racing and has got himself into the Caulfield Cup with last start win. Did have plus of a low weight and wet track last start and got to control the speed, he can probably go forward here again today from a good barrier without much early work. Capable on dry tracks, maybe would prefer some rain against these but form is good enough to be competitive here and looks a genuine chance. Not well weighted against the (12) though who meets him 7kgs better off for a 1 length last start defeat.
7-MILFORD is the rank outsider and has drawn an outside barrier. Did nothing 1st up and probably will need the run here today, can go forward sometimes in the run, but barrier probably means has to drop back today and give these a big start off a slow speed.
8-INSPIRATION GIRL maintains an excellent win strike rate from previous WA form, but these colours have had a shocking time so far this spring. Fought on well to the line behind a classy winner last start, dry track suits and probably normally races at a higher level than many of these. Maybe would want to see them go forward here from an outsider barrier and take a position and probably a winning chance if they do so, so watch for riding tactics here.
9-CHAPADA maintains an atrocious strike rate of 3 wins from 36 starts and seems to have a habit of looming into the race with a strong run looking like the winner only to not finish it off. Did run 3rd in this race last year at $101 (that was third up and off worse form than he has shown this year), and 3rd in the Australian Cup last year at $41. Quite astonishing that he has placed 6/9 this distance and 7/11 at Flemington as he doesnít seem that genuine a horse. So dry track and Flemington 2000M are very big ticks for him here and that last run was pretty good. He does tend to like the speed on though and not sure he gets it today. Will probably run top 4 again, so a must for exotics, but hard to get enthused about his chances.
10-ALEGRON did have a pretty impressive 3YO season with a VRC Derby placing, ATC Derby placing, sterling VRC St Leger win and catastrophic SA Derby. Fitter for the two runs back and surprised he was $20 in last start win in Sydney. Flemington and dry track suits and sure jockey Oliver will want to make amends for that SA ride. Probably has more upside than most of these and looks a top level stayer. Looks well weighted into this and pretty hard to beat. SCRATCHED.
11-YOUNG WERTHER hasnít really quite gone on from his 3YO season when he started a well-supported favourite in the VRC Derby, but he has been raced quite sparingly and did run 2nd in this race last year. Definitely a Flemington horse, and ran a pretty good race here 1st up with a big weight poking through on the inside of runners on a wet track. Firm track suits and he does strike a winnable race here so would be keeping a close eye on the market. Inside barrier a slight issue as he is likely drop back and not sure they are going to go that quickly here and just suspect he might need one more run coming off close to a year break, but does get a nice weight drop into this race, so have to rate a chance.
12-GOLD TRIP is current race favourite and has had a bit of a controversial career, but both runs this time in have been excellent, especially tough on-speed effort last start at Caulfield carrying a big weight. Looks very well weighted under the conditions here. Can probably race handy here with not much speed on, maybe just the firm track might be the question mark, but he does look ready to win and the hardest to beat in this.
13-CRYSTAL PEGASUS is fitter for the two runs in but has been struggling on very heavy tracks so might improve back on firmer ground today. Impressive 5 wins from 8 starts over the 2000M and maintains a good career win strike rate and is actually unbeaten at Flemington. Well drawn, probably drops back but looks a good value roughie who might improve into this.
14-LUNCIES is a tough stayer who actually ran pretty well 1st up over 1600M. Probably better with some give in the ground and might drop back along the inside here and need luck in a big field, but also probably doesnít deserve to be $91 in betting so a long shot roughie exotics.
15-MAXIMAL is a Sydney visitor who has only the one win, and didnít do much 1st up. Does tend to drop well back in his races and market odds are probably more reflective of his international form, think want to see him do more in Australia before getting on.
16-SUREFIRE is a Sydney visitor who is race fit and in winning form this time in, and like that he has had the three runs in and the 2000M run to have a fitness edge over many of them here. Battled on well last start behind a smart one and looks really well suited in this race.
17-HEZASHOCKA has been racing well at a lower level and really grinds away into the finish. Fought on well here last start in a race where those fighting out the finish all came from well back in the field on the turn. May be better on a wet track and main issue is likely to drop well back here from an outside barrier, but he is racing well.
Summary- Really even field here and pretty tough to line these up and one of the few races where you would say probably any of these could win. But the key factors are going to be the dry track and the lack of speed, so going to put the 4-PROFONDO on top here who has been looking for the right race to show his true ability and can jump and sit handy here and show a turn of foot at the right time, the 16-SUREFIRE again with good Sydney form and 2000M fit and the favourite the 12-GOLD TRIP. Suspect we are going to get some roughies into the finish though, so watch out for the 1-KNIGHTS ORDER leading and the 13-CRYSTAL PEGASUS back onto a dry track. Punting plan is to back the top pick each way at $10 and box up a wide quinella with some roughies likely to get into the finish.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 2-SUMATRA $10 WIN
Looks a pretty open race on paper, but the 3YO fillies out to 1600M and you want to be on a strong finisher normally in this race. This one is fitter for the two runs in which have both been great and was really good in tough conditions last start at Caulfield coming from last on the home turn and working past the whole field, except for the impressive winner who had already grabbed a break on her. Looks the one to beat in this and happy to back straight out at around $6 (with a little something on roughie 7-STREET DELIGHT below).
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 13-FORTUNATE KISS $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 13-FORTUNATE KISS, 11-PRIDE OF JENNI, 10-MEGAMEA boxed x $6 = 200%
Well documented how unfortunate this one has been time and time again and true to form last start she ran into a dead-end just as she was about to launch into the finish. Career record does look pretty average, but she really should have won and placed a few more times and she does have ability. Fitter for the two runs in, drawn well, maybe we will see a more positive ride from jockey here to box seat and maybe today the breaks come her way? Back each way at around $10, and there is a good value quinella here with the leader the 11-PRIDE OF JENNI and the very consistent 10-MEGAMEA who also had no luck last start and stormed home late.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-LUNAR FLARE $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,4,8,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
Strong finishing stayer who is fitter for the 3 runs in and each of them has been excellent and she has been an eye catcher making ground late each time. Flemington suits, maybe a little bit more give in the ground would be better, but looks ready to win and the trick might just be getting a clear run from the inside barrier as she is best ridden with a long winding run down the outside of them. Back each way at around $9 and box a quinella with the 2-VOW AND DECLARE who might be ready to return to form, the 14-TEAM CAPTAIN who is a good roughie at $25 and might be ready to show form this time in, and the solid staying 4-DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR. Main bet of the day.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-PROFONDO $7 EW
Talented type who has been struggling on wet tracks up in Sydney, and likely to get the run of the race here on-speed off a moderate speed. Does have ability and really would want to see it today, but think he has found the right race here and is a good each way bet at around $10. Additional quinella with roughies down in the Wonder Bet below.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-ROCHíNíHORSE $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 6-ROCHíNíHORSE#5-KEMALPASA, 13-SWATS THAT x $5 = 250%
Talented sprinter who surprised with her Newmarket Group 1 win, but looks ready to win again off her great run here last start when was coming back strongly on the line. Fitter for the two runs in and seems to be a dry track Flemington straight strong finishing specialists so looks a good each way bet today at around $7. Confident quinella with the tough on-speed straight specialist 5-KEMALPASA, and the 13-SWATS THAT who always seems to be running on late in these races without winning.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 11-MR EXCLUSIVE $2.50 EW
Just a little something in this race up against the short priced favourite the 7-VISINARI who will be hard to beat, but this one often just lobs on-speed and sticks on well and so looks over the odds at $41 in a small field where he can box-seat in the run.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 7-STREET DELIGHT $2.50 EW
We are going to stick with this roughie and the run at Sandown last Sunday wasnít too bad when she was snagged out to the back of the field from a wide barrier and worked through the field well to the line. Start before she kicked clear early in the straight at Sandown before finishing on the run. Should be fitter for the two runs in and drawn well to go forward here today again and she might actually run a race here at massive odds of $61.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 12-BERARDINO $2.50 EW
Looks a promising stayer and he chased the 4-ARTZINO home at Sandown two starts back, before running in the cyclone Guineas Prelude and he was actually running into the race before the turn there before getting bogged down. Back to firm track suits, and there is probably not as much between him and the (4) as the betting suggests, so worth an each way bet at $16.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 10-INTREPRETATION at around $4
Even field of stayers and this one has gone OK in his two runs this time in, but not sure he has gone well enough to be a clear favourite in this race. More being priced because of international form, but donít think he is any value in this field and prefer to let run.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Flemington Cup Week luncheon.
QUINELLA; Race 7: 1,4,12,13,16 boxed x $5
Wide open feature race and the Sydney siders the 4-PROFONDO and 16-SUREFIRE look likely to be in the finish, as does the favourite 12-GOLD TRIP, but there are two good roughies in the 1-KNIGHTS ORDER leading and the 13-CRYSTAL PEGASUS back to a dry track so letís try for a value quinella result.
Races 6,7,8,9: 2,4,8,14 / 1,4,12,13,16 / 5,6,13 / 1,4,7,12 x $20 = 8.33%
Looks a pretty tricky quaddie, but we should be able to get through the first leg with some value in an even race and the feature race is wide open so that should open the quaddie dividend up nicely. Most confident leg is the third leg which you can narrow down to just 6-ROCHíNíHORSE, 5-KEMALPASA, 13-SWATS THAT and hard to be confident in the last leg with lots of improving horses up in distance.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. GRAB A SHOW BAG.
Race 2: 7-VISINARI, 11-MR EXCLUSIVE, 9-THE GARDEN
Race 3: 2-SUMATRA, 8-TYPHOON TITMUS, 7-STREET DELIGHT
Race 4: 13-FORTUNATE KISS, 11-PRIDE OF JENNI, 10-MEGAMEA
Race 5: 5-BUENOS NOCHES, 3-GIGA KICK, 9-ZOU SENSATION
Race 6: 8-LUNAR FLARE, 2-VOW AND DECLARE, 14-TEAM CAPTAIN
Race 7: 4-PROFONDO, 16-SUREFIRE, 12-GOLD TRIP
Race 8: 6-ROCHíNíHORSE, 5-KEMALPASA, 13-SWATS THAT
Race 9: 1-MR MAESTRO, 12-BERARDINO, 4-ARTZINO