Cold, windy and miserable week in Melbourne, but weather is fining up for the weekend just in time for a great racing program at Flemington. Wind has dried the track out and they plan to irrigate Friday night, so there should be some give early on, but expect this track to dry out during the day. Genuine firm track by the second half of the program and if this track does get on the firmer sider expect it to be an advantage on-speed and closer to the rails. Straight has raced really evenly last couple of meetings and that makes the straight races super tough especially in big fields.
Sensational race card today with plenty of interest and plenty of competitive fields with some depth means we should see some value results and big exotics. There are horses like Race 1 15-TITAN OF CHOICE at $100, Race 8: 8-YOUNG WERTHER at $150 and Race 9: 11-SUPERAZI at $200 who aren’t actually hopeless, which is pretty rare to have those odds about horses that actually normally go OK. Can make arguments for plenty of horses in these fields and it’s a challenging betting day so we have to take a stance and have an opinion on most of these races. Some of the favourites here has just got far too short in highly competitive fields.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 4-OPTIONS $5 WIN
Normally we don’t like betting in this race with the 3YOs stepping up in distance for the first time and often they can improve rapidly out to a suitable distance. But really like how this one is going, good strong finishing wins first two starts and then knocked sideways half way down the straight here last start and still right in a three way finish and that form looks strong. Nice sit here and running over the top of them late, keen to back straight out at around $5.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 1-TENTYRIS $5 WIN
Under-rated colt who just missed the bob to win the Blue Diamond and still started good each-way odds when winning the start after in Sydney. Proven down the straight, given a soft jump out when looked to be moving really well and these Godolphin runners seem to be going extremely well at the moment. Can sit handy here and may unleash late. Back straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-YUM $4 EW, QUINELLA 2,3,4,9 boxed x $3 = 50%
Super impressive win at Caulfield last start weaving through the field off a strong tempo and interesting to see how far this one can go this spring in the 3YO filly races. Looks to be a strong tempo here again and she should be able to run out the 1600M strongly based off last run. Back each way at around $6 and box up in a quinella with the watch horse the 9-MATING CALL who was really good at Sandown last week and is looking for the distance, the 3-SPICY LU proven over the trip and 2-ZANY GIRL who was also good last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-STAR PATROL $4 EW, QUINELLA 1,11,12,13,17 boxed x $5 = 50%
Open sprint race down the straight, but this one looks primed for this race today. Injury prone sprinter who has a sensational Flemington straight rack record and was well in the market last start when resuming off a long break and fought the finish out well. Looks to get a clear lead down the outside rail which is also a plus and should have plenty of improvement to come off the last run. Back each way at around $7 and always worth taking a wide box quinella in the straight races with the flying 17-LA FRACAS going up in class, the 12-PAYLINE who looks ready to do something now off two runs this time in, the 1-WAR MACHINE who needs to be ready to fire first-up and throw in a super roughie here in the 11-SUPERAZI at $100 (was $200 last night), off a good trial and ran a pretty impressive 5th in the Newmarket here first-up in the Autumn when he should have finished closer and has only missed the place once when first-up.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-GRAND PIERRO $2 EW
Stayer who is building nicely this spring, dropped too far back two starts ago at Caulfield when chased hard and passed the pack at the back of the field, and then nice run into the race last start at long odds. He loves firm tracks and getting out to the 2400M and should be ready to do something now with the three runs this time in. Good barrier 1 horse too, hopefully he can take a sit on-speed here in a big field and make the most of the good barrier and he has a nice turn of foot to take gaps (but noted that he can sometimes finish on his runs late). Nice rough chance here at $34.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 8-YOUNG WERTHER $1 WIN $2 PLACE
Let us try and make a case for a $150 shot in the feature race. He has always been a Flemington 2000M+ and a dry track horse, he has been competitive in this race before (5th last year on an unsuitable wet track, 3rd in 2022) and he is ready to do something now this time in off two runs in. Was closing late really well here last start and probably wins in a few more strides and not much between him and the 10-GOLDEN PATH there, and that one in turn was right in the finish in the Underwood Stakes against one of the top-liners here in the 3-SIR DELIUS. Realistically he does need one or more of the top-liners to flop here to be in the finish, but there are plenty of staying types who are only going fair in this and he will almost certainly beat most of them home. So pretty good Top 5 chance at odds if you play same-race multis and not impossible he runs into the finish here at monster odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 10-VON HAUKE $2 EW
One with ability on his day but he has been scratched a few times recently and needs a dry track and a long Flemington straight. Fitter for the two runs in and was an eye catcher last start at Sandown when he got too far back and came flying home late. Have to acknowledge his last ten starts are 0-0-0 and he will need to settle more handy today but he just looks ready to do something at around $15.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 15-GILDED WATER at around $2.30
Highly promising imported stayer who is going to be hard to beat and can go forward and control the speed here, but think the market has got a bit ahead of themselves here. Easy win last start, but not sure he has been beating that much in last few runs and we are heading into a capacity staying field here with plenty of proven staying type. Definitely the one to beat and has the best form, but not interested in these odds.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole heap of Show Bags.
QUINELLA: Race 1 5,10,11,14,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
Nothing wrong with boxing up quinellas in these straight races and sure to be plenty of value here in a big field. The 10-STOLI BOLI looks the one to beat and deserves a win, the 5-CAPPER THIRTYNINE was used up to lead last start and will get a softer run here, the 11-PRINCESS QUE might be hard to run down leading closer to the inside, the 14-ACID WASH might do something first-up and super roughie the 15-TITAN OF CHOICE goes in at $100, he can be a bit erratic, but did run a place at odds first-up down the straight last time in.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,11,12,16,17 / 3,7 / 1,11,12,13,17 / 3,9,10,11 x $20 = 10%
Need to be a bit bold here and hope the short-priced favourite gets beaten in the first leg, take a stance in the feature race and open-up for some value in the last two legs.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8 TURNBULL STAKES 2000M GROUP 1
Normally a great betting race and plenty to ponder this year in this field. As always this race mixes up the form a little under the set weights and penalties weight conditions, so gives those who are not quite competitive at WFA a chance to make amends. Seems to be a real lack of speed in this race and the 10-GOLDEN PATH looks the clear leader in this, from the 3-SIR DELIUS likely going forward from an outside barrier and the 8-YOUNG WERTHER sitting closer to the speed up in distance and maybe the 12-DEAKIN or the 14-RIVER OF STARS pushing forward. Doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front, so just keep an eye out if the track dries out and favours those on-speed by this race.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-ANTINO has a stack of ability on his day, but is one we struggle to catch. Famous for taking off early and making a long run around them so be interesting to see when they pull out these tactics this preparation. Two runs in have been even and he looks ready to do something today. We just suspect against the top level WFA horses he tends to find one better and he actually ends up top weight in this field today. Would watch the market on this one – he definitely has the ability to win this and don’t let us put you off but we just prefer to back others here. Risking.
2-LAND LEGEND has had the three runs in and looks to be getting out to a suitable distance and running into form. Worked home well last start and looks to be working nicely towards a Caulfield Cup where he ran a great race last year. Dry track suits as does out to the 2000M. Probably drops back from an outside barrier here and he would want the speed on and a track where they can run on and win, which he may not get. Will be running on well late, but maybe not today giving weight to many of these. No.
3-SIR DELIUS is the potential boom horse of the spring, chased hard to just miss 1st up and then was headed at Caulfield in the Underwood and fought back bravely to win against a smart one. Been right in the finish at every Australian start which is rare for an international import and suggests he has a stack of class. Big Flemington track and 2000M should suit and looks extremely hard to beat here. Likely jockey will go forward here from an outside barrier and get the run of the race off a slow tempo. Strong chance.
4-VIA SISTINA is close to unbeatable at her best, and big tracks and 2000M are a big plus. Won this race last year in a strong form race before thrashing them in the Cox Plate. Won 9 times and placed 13/14 over the 2000M. Wasn’t suited by the dawdling tempo last start and only just held on to win the start before, so there hasn’t been much between her and the stablemate the (7) this time in. Drawn inside barrier might be a little tricky here if they go slow, think she likes to get some clear running. She does seems a little more vulnerable this time in. Definitely hard to beat, main issue is that she starts pretty poor betting value most starts so you aren’t going to make a fortunate backing her. Be interesting to see if punters back her into the red again here. Strong chance.
5-MOIRA is fitter for the three runs in and those runs have all been fair, without really standing out. Only just missed at MV, but then only just ground away to the finish in the Underwood. Another who should be suited up in distance and to a bigger track and she is probably aiming for better things this spring but not quite sure where she lines up against these at the moment and prefer to see. No
6-HALF YOURS looks to be a promising stayer on the way up and started ridiculously short odds at Caulfield in the Naturalism, but won like the odds suggested running away from them. Showed he could handle a firm track there and looks to get a pretty good run here from an inside barrier and has shown he can take gaps with a quick turn of foot. Look for him to be ridden forward just behind the speed here. Up in class again, but this is the sort of race an up and comer can win so have to respect this one. Chance.
7-AELIANA looks to be going places this spring and both runs back have been full of promise, she almost ran down the (4) first-up and battled along with her behind the slow tempo last start. She probably held the stable-mate last start and many think there isn’t much between them this time in – but she is double the odds of that one today. Out to 2000M should suit and like the way she chased hard last start so definitely a strong chance here. She probably gets out first whilst the (4) is still looking for runs so actually prefer he over the stable-mate. Strong chance.
8-YOUNG WERTHER is running into form with two runs this time in and they have both been promising and he was hitting the line strongly here last start to just miss. His best form is at Flemington and on dry tracks, so he looks to be pretty well suited here. Ran 5th in this race last year on an unsuitable wet track in a pretty strong field, and finished 3rd in this race in 2022. Will need to go forward here from an outside barrier and would need a positive ride from the jockey, but if he settles just behind the speed here he is monster rough chance at $150. Likely to find one or two better but considering his form in this race and conditions to suit, there is a good chance he will run in the first 4-5 and we can play same race multis these days. Stupid odds about this one up against half the field of stayers warming-up, so have a little something on just in case. Rough chance.
9-ADELAIDE RIVER is fitter for the three runs in and fought out the finish strongly last start against a smart one. Possibly could go forward here. Looks to be running into form off a long break, but hasn’t managed to win yet in Australia. Last run was excellent and the first two gapped the rest but up again in class here and prefer to see run. Maybe rough place chance on-speed.
10-GOLDEN PATH looks to be very promising and has been handling stepping up in class and distance every start this time in and been right in the finish each time. Was right in the finish behind two top-liners in the Underwood last start and was fighting on strongly on the line. Gets a 3kgs weight pull against the (3) from last start. Seems to be in career best form and gets a very favourable set up here – can lead on a moderate tempo. Strong rough chance in this and don’t underestimate this one against the top liners.
11-MIDDLE EARTH doesn’t seem to have really gone on after impressive first start win in Australia. Big weights and slowly building up this spring and looking for distance and a solidly run tempo. Hasn’t done enough to be interested this time in, but will probably run well looking for longer races later in the spring. Not today.
12-DEAKIN is another stayer stepping up in distance towards spring majors. Can go forward if required, but suspect they will probably still ride him quietly from an outside barrier here today. Going through the warm-up races and looking till he gets out past 2000M for a solid staying type. Passing.
13-ZARDOZI is turning into a bit of an enigma, she keeps racing well and putting in good runs in top level races, but she hasn’t managed to win a race for a while now. First-up run was excellent when she made good ground late, and then only just fair in the Underwood. Suited under these weight conditions with only 53 kgs and likely to get a good run from an inside barrier – and she has run some good races here at Flemington slicing through with inside runs before. May prefer tracks with some give in them? She seems over the odds here at $34 and some rough chance here. Rough.
14-RIVER OF STARS has been fair in two runs this time in and is yet another stayer warming up for spring targets. Likely to be ridden quiet here again as building up fitness and distance and look for this one later in the spring. No
Summary:
Should be a great betting race with not much between the top three class horses here being 3-SIR DELIUS, 7-AELIANA and 4-VIA SISTINA. The 3-SIR DELIUS has impressed both runs this time in and was a super tough effort to fight back and win last start, so if they go forward today he looks very hard to beat with improvement to come. Prefer the 7-AELIANA over the stablemate as the main danger, she is double the odds and has matched it with her both starts this time in and probably even gone a little better and might get out into clear running before her stablemate gets out from her inside barrier. For a bit of novelty and to be a little different, we are going to put the $150 roughie 8-YOUNG WERTHER in for third, mainly so we can have something on him in the Betting Portfolio, but given that he is running into form and loves a dry track Flemington and 2000M and is up against a lot of stayers doing warm up runs good chance he almost certainly runs into the Top 5 or so and beats most of these home so he is a good one for same-race multis at long odds. Respect for the 10-GOLDEN PATH as the fit in-form and on-speed runner here as the other value chance who wasn’t beaten far at all by the (3) last start. Will be backing the top two horses to win and playing with some long shot same race multis with the two outsiders to run top 5.
Race 1: 10-STOLI BOLI, 5-CAPPER THIRTYNINE, 11-PRINCESS QUE
Race 2: EARLY 2YO RACE. STUCK IN SHOW TRAFFIC
Race 3: 4-OPTIONS, 2-MIEWA, 8-CROWN OF RUSSIA
Race 4: 4-YUM, 9-MATING CALL, 3-SPICY LU,
Race 5: 4-ON DISPLAY, 6-MISS ARIA, 2-MIRAVAL ROSE
Race 6: 1-TENTYRIS, 4-LEGACY BOUND, 8-MY GLADIOLA
Race 7: 11-GRAND PIERRO, 2-REVELARE, 17-BUR DUBAI
Race 8: 3-SIR DELIUS, 7-AELIANA, 8-YOUNG WERTHER
Race 9: 13-STAR PATROL, 17-LA FRACAS, 12-PAYLINE
Race 10: 9-MEDIA WORLD, 10-VON HAUKE, 3-CAFÉ MILLENIUM
