Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the Turnbull Stakes 03/10/2026.
Rain. Rain. Rain. Occasional earthquakes. Extreme amount of rain heading into the weekend, which is really unusual for a Turnbull Stakes which is more often than not run on a GOOD(3) track. Even given the great drainage at Flemington we are heading to an extremely rain affected HEAVY track here, and the real kicker here is yet more rain forecast for Saturday race day, so the track is not going to get any chance to improve. We may even end up having to postpone, which is pretty much unheard of for Flemington. Rail OUT 9M, but they will be coming to the middle of the track and the racing pattern will favour strong finishing wet trackers coming out wide. Down the straight middle to outside also like to be the better ground.
Going to be tricky punting program, because we will be on a deteriorating track and also likely to be quite a few scratchings so we will refresh the form and tips Saturday morning before posting. Despite the bigger fields and the tough conditions it does look like a favourites day today and can’t knock most of the favs, especially those with proven class. Plenty at odds though who could run into the placings, so might be a day for exotics with the favourite to win and roughies to place.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 3-PROFLIGATE $5 WIN
Been building up nicely all spring and looks the one to beat today. Eye-catcher first-up and then gave too much of a head start to an all the way winner last start. Up in distance to 1600M suits and should run the trip out strongly. Unknown on heavy only slight query. Maybe just settles a bit more forward here over the longer trip and looks the one to beat on form this time in. Back straight out at around $4 and those looks pretty good odds who one on the way up.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 15-GOLD MEDALLIST $4 EW
Lightly raced with a good win strike rate and she should be ready to do something today peaking off the two runs this time in, which have both been competitive. Flemington 1400M, well drawn, will settle just behind a solid tempo here and get the run of the race. Proven on heavy tracks and 1400M form is excellent. Looks a good value each way bet at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 11-OVER EXCITED $4 EW
QUINELLA 11-OVER EXCITED#6,8,9,10 x $2 = 50%
Up and coming 3YO filly who we were keen to take on here last start when favourite and up in class off an impressive maiden win, and we were darn lucky there was one class filly in the race to beat her home. Those two cleared out from the rest of the field. Further improvement to come, proven down the straight, proven in the wet and suspect she is going to go on with it today. Each way at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite who will get a soft lead the 10-NATURAL FLING, the 6-BUGGSY at odds who was really good here last start and proven on heavy ground, and some roughies in the 9-POCKETFULLOFCASH off a good trial and the strong finishing 8-DOUBT TIME drawn wide.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-BERKELEY SQUARE $4 EW
Tough old campaigner who needs a few runs in each time to find his best, loves wet tracks and loves distance and loves Flemington. Perfect match! Did run into the race last start wide and early and faded on the run, but has been thereabouts each time this campaign and looks ready to do something today with everything to suit. Each way at around $11 and expect this one to shorten come race time.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 3,8,16,17 boxed x $3 = 50%
Wide open straight race early on in the day and let’s take a box quinella on the 16-QUEEN CHRISTINE who will lead here and might not get much pressure and loves it wet, the 17-IVAN’S HERO at odds drawn wide which may be the best going, the 3-MOBY DICK who strikes a winnable straight track race today on a favourable wet track and the 8-ALERO drawn wide. Simple value quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 13-NOTIFIED $1.50 EW
Even field of 3YOs stepping up in distance and this is always a tough race to line up. This one may be the value runner, was really unlucky here in the winter and then first-up just seemed a little flat footed and was starting to wind up nicely late. Out to 1800M is big plus, wet track is definitely a query but worth something each way at odds of $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 12-SHE'S A HUSTLER $2 EW
We think this mare may go on to feature this spring and be interesting to see what she does in the Turnbull today. Was hitting the line nicely last start, excellent win strike rate, proven on heavy ground and she fights her races out strongly. Capable of causing the upset today if she is forward enough, if not she is likely to be one to follow next start. Each way at around $16.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-DE BERGERAC $2 EW
Super consistent down the Flemington straight with excellent track and distance stats. Ready to do something now with the two runs this time in and was finishing on strongly last start when just gave them a bit too much of a head start. Ran a really good race here at the end of Cup week on the dreadful track and think he is a bit under-rated coming into this race – his straight track form is just about the best in the field. Great rough chance at around $13. Would rate him on top if not for the really well weighted 15-SKYBIRD, but that one can be a bit hit and miss.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-THE NEXT EPISODE at around $3
Talented type well in the market here and proven on heavy ground, but there isn’t as much between these as the betting market suggests and we have a few horses going around at $100 who actually go quite well. Very quiet jump out leading into this, but is up against the two who dashed away in that jump out and spaced the field and not sure want to get on the short odds here. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a Flemington Fortune
EARLY QUAD: Races 3,4,5,6: 2,3,4,6,13/ 3 / 7,9,15 / 6,10,11 x $5 = 11.11%
Should be some value in the Early Quad and we are happy to go one out on our best bet Race 4: 3-PROFLIGATE in the second leg. Go wide in an open first leg and hope for something away from the favourites in the later legs and throw some more into the last leg if you can afford it.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,10,11,12,17 / 2,11,12,13 / 3,10,15 / 1,5,11,15 x $20 = 8.33%
Good chance most of the later favourites win, but nice dividend if something away from the obvious gets into one of the legs in even field. Take a few away from the favourite in the feature races as there are some nice $10 chances there who are quite capable of causing the upset.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M SET WEIGHTS
For the Turnbull Stakes we have a good mix of proven WFA horses and quality stayers heading towards Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and up and coming stayers are always a live chance in this race because of the set weights scale, rather than WFA. So don’t write off the staying types in the slightest when doing the form.
Safe to assume this race is going to run on a very rain affected track and the winner will be coming home hard late down the middle of the track. Looking through the list of winners this race is often won by a strong finisher regardless of track conditions, e.g. LITTORIO, EFFICIENT, ZIPPING, GREEN MOON, GOLD TRIP, VIA SISTINA to name just a few.
Hard to judge the speed here, lots of drop back staying types in this race, so you would think today is the day they let the 3-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN bowl to the lead and keep rolling and if they do that he is likely to run a race today. The 2-SIR DELIUS likely to get the perfect run into the race here, the 5-AELIANA sitting handy and apart from there really little to no pressure up front, but the conditions may make it a solid staying test regardless.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-HALF YOURS was all the rage last spring when he was the up and comer and landed both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Showed he was a genuine contender with a strong finish in this race last year. Form over QLD winter was barely a pass, with a few less than vigorous rides not really helping the cause. Question is what sort of horse are we going to see this spring? Got dropped when they sprinted here last start but lengthened to the line nicely late, worth noting he finished alongside the 12-SHE’S A HUSTLER and meets that one 2kgs worse off today. Wet track is no drama and is probably a plus. Like the wide barrier draw here, dropping out and finishing strongly down the middle of the track. Watch the market today, suspicion is that he probably still needs one more run, but likely to be running on into the finish here and be thereabouts. Prefer place.
2-SIR DELIUS stamped himself as a pretty serious racehorse winning this race last year, before the vet ruled him out for the rest of the spring where he was likely to be a major contender. Nice autumn campaign where he knocked off an undefeated horse and showed his best with a few runs in when he got out to the 2000M. Well in the market first-up here in the Makybe Diva, he was left a little flat-footed when the classy winner sprinted clear but fought the race out well to the line. Definitely improvement to come off that and suited up to the 2000M here. Heavy track form is overseas. More versatile than many of these and he can settle forward in the run so the race is pretty much his to lose here. Short-priced favourite and obviously the one to beat, but not unbeatable here – he is probably still vulnerable early on in his campaign here in tough conditions. Strong chance.
3-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN is best when allowed to free range along up on the speed and his Flemington form is excellent (won 3 from 6) and twice over the 2000M. Fitter for the two runs in and we should see his best today. Soft track form is good, but may be a query in the heavy going. Inside barrier and he is the most likely leader here with little pressure up front, so surely today would be the day to let him stride along in front? Listen out for riding tactics, the odds seem generous because he is quite capable of winning this on his best form if he is ridden to a clear lead in tough conditions. Rough.
4-COSMIC CRUSADER is a WA proven WFA horse who has definitely shown he is up to Melbourne Spring Campaign level, being right in the finish of each of his four runs over here this spring. Excellent wet soft track form. Went more forward last start and he actually wasn’t suited by the very firm track at Caulfield. Out to 2000M for the first time here and has never struck a heavy track and this track is going to be worse side of heavy most likely. Interesting there has been a pretty decent market move for him and he is right in the betting market here. Did clearly beat home the rest of the field last start. Has the right form to be in the finish here, but just get the feeling 2000M at Melbourne Spring Carnival level probably sees him in the finish, but beaten by one or two better. Prefer place.
5-AELIANA is highly rated but does seem to spend a lot of her races chasing hard late behind other horses. Fitter for the two runs in, and small field and slow tempo didn’t suit last start, she needs a strong staying contest off a genuine tempo –does she get that today? She is capable of settling more forward, that has usually been in smaller fields but today would be the perfect time to do that with little pressure up front. Competitive 6th in this race last year when she was well in the market. Inside draw means she may be in the worse going. If there is one out of the favoured runners that we would only be luke-warm on it would be her, she is well in the market here but she was competitive without being outstanding last spring. Prefer place.
6-ASTERIX looks to be building nicely this spring, worked home well first-up and then presented into the race last start when looked like he ran out of fitness late. Heavy track form is earlier in career over in NZ. Using this as a launch pad to spring staying targets and he may be a factor later in the spring. Would love to see them go forward here, he is starting to run into form this spring and is a dour staying type so not impossible he runs in the finish here at odds. Rough place.
7-ZAHRANN is an import who seems to have adjusted to local racing extremely well and looks a very progressive international horse. Eye catcher at first Australian run and then hit the line well first-up this time in, before a strong win off a solid tempo last start at Caulfield. Looks a stayer on the way up. Beaten here on a wet track mid-year but was ridden more forward that day and was right in the finish so heavy track should be OK. Inside barrier might be an issue here, the winner will almost certainly come down the middle the track in this race. Did carry 3kgs less than the (13) last start and today has to carry 1.5 kgs more so that’s a pretty decent turnaround. Definitely one on the way up though and they can overcome weight disadvantages as they improve so wouldn’t write this one off. Chance.
8-OHOPE WINS was the ATC Oaks winner as a 3YO and always a bit hit and miss which of the staying classic 3YO winners go on the next season. Another slowly building into a spring staying campaign and she hasn’t been suited in two runs this time in over shorter trips. Racing pattern is to drop straight out to the back of the field. Need to wait till she shows some form this time in. No
9-MIDDLE EARTH is more the dour staying type who has been a bit hard to catch but managed to run into form late last spring and place in a Melbourne Cup and he handled wet tracks over the QLD winter. Always takes a few runs in each time and up to distance to find his best form, and should be just about ready to do something today off two runs this time in. Big track suits. A tough staying slog would suit this one, still not sure how much speed we are going to get here though. Prefer others against this level. No
10-SOUL OF SPAIN SCRATCHED
11-BUCKAROO has been a bit of a frustrating horse to follow (and even more so last start when we got the colours mixed up between him and BIRDMAN!! - idiot). Building nicely into the spring as he normally does, and both runs this time in have been full of merit and he probably didn’t like the very firm track at Caulfield. Second in this race in 2024 behind VIA SISTINA, and he has actually never won over 2000M, but was also only just nosed out in a Cox Plate. Has loomed up to win these feature races a few times but been beaten by pretty smart ones each time. Good barrier, ready to fire, strong over 2000M, will be finishing on strongly down the middle of the track which should be the place to be, but he hasn’t won for over two years now. Famously beaten by 2-SIR DELIUS in the Underwood Stakes last year and worth noting he gets 4kgs off that one today. Not winning for two years may actually end up a big plus here – he gets into this race with 55kgs, and he is a proven WFA horse getting a weight pull off the other WFA horses. Going to give him one more chance today. Chance.
12-SHE'S A HUSTLER was a run we really liked in the Makybe Diva, she was hitting the line strongly first-up. Consistent at this level over QLD winter, and her form end of last spring was top notch, tough win the Sandown Classic at WFA and really like the Matriarch run where she chased and closed hard against a tear away leader and winner there. That run was on a Flemington heavy track which is going to be very similar to today. Lightly raced, impressive win strike rate and looks to be a horse on the rise. She is heading towards a Caulfield Cup and this is the best form reference for that race and pretty sure she runs a race today and is right in the finish. Just not clear how forward she is, one more run this time in she would be clear top pick in this. Strong chance.
13-SAINT GEORGE has been racing very consistently this time in and excellent record at the 2000M and probably better off at Flemington as well. Drawn wide, but he likes to sit out the back and run on strongly down the middle of the track which is the likely racing pattern regardless. Genuine wet track may be an issue? He has race fitness over many of these, many of his rivals here are early on in their campaigns and he has been up and running this spring and that fitness edge may be important under the conditions. Given his track and distance stats and his current form this is a winnable race for him, especially under this weight scale. Chance.
14-DEAKIN is fitter for the two runs in which have both been decent and last run was probably better than it looks as he stuck to the inside to make his runs which was the worse going. Decent effort in this race last year as well to finish 6th before heading to the Caulfield Cup, which he will likely do again this year. Not sure about him on genuine heavy ground. Drawn wide, but can go forward here and this race is a bit short on speed and tempo. He is more a solid staying 2400M type so he would want a genuine staying tempo. Probably held at this level but he won’t be far off the finish again. No. SCRATCHED.
15-KINGS VALLEY is a middle of the road stayer who has already qualified for the Caulfield Cup off his Mornington Cup win earlier this year, so they can take it slow this time in and head for that race. Has started ridiculously long odds every start this time in, worked nicely into the finish last start off a wide run and should be ready to do something today with the three runs this time in. Another who is an unknown on a very heavy track. He is going to start ridiculous odds again today at $100 and he is actually ready to run a race so not impossible that he runs into the top four here and worth throwing into wider exotics. Rough place.
Summary:
The 2-SIR DELIUS is obviously the one to beat here, but would prefer a dry track and a solid tempo, and this is likely to end up a messy race in very messy conditions. He also probably isn’t at his peak yet this spring so he is definitely vulnerable here, but class probably sees him through in this. So he goes on top, but the one we really want to back is the progressive stayer the 12-SHE'S A HUSTLER, really like the way she is shaping up this spring and go back and watch the Matriarch run last spring on a Flemington heavy track – she didn’t win, but she fought out the race so strongly. Heading towards the Caulfield Cup and she is likely to stamp herself as a genuine contender today. Going to stick with the 11-BUCKAROO as the WFA horse who doesn’t have to carry the WFA weight as the third pick and respect for the fit and in-form 13-SAINT GEORGE. Probably an interest bet on the $10 plus chances in what is probably a more even race than the betting market is suggesting.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. FLEMINGTON FORTUNE TIME
Race 2: 16-QUEEN CHRISTINE, 17-IVAN’S HERO, 3-MOBY DICK
Race 3: 6-ICY YOU, 2-LEPOLO, 13-NOTIFIED
Race 4: 3-PROFLIGATE, 5-PORTINARI, 14-JOELY
Race 5: 15-GOLD MEDALLIST, 7-GOLD COAST BELLE, 9-STYLISH
Race 6: 11-OVER EXCITED, 10-NATURAL FLING, 6-BUGGSY
Race 7: 2-BERKELEY SQUARE, 17-THINK GIANT, 12-MR MONACO
Race 8: 2-SIR DELIUS, 12-SHE'S A HUSTLER, 11-BUCKAROO
Race 9: 15-SKYBIRD, 10-DE BERGERAC, 3-ARKANSAW KID
Race 10: 11-TEN COMMANDMENTS, 15-HOME RULE, 5-COTE ATLANTIQUE
