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CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 20th Sept 2008

Track: GOOD (3) - Weather: SHOWER OR TWO - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50): Been a nice sunny dry week and there are showers forecast going into the weekend, but this should at best just take the edge off the track which should remain relatively firm track come Saturday race day. Rail goes back to the TRUE here after being OUT 11M, OUT 8M and OUT 4M last 3 meetings. In previous years, these feature race days at Caulfield with the rail back to TRUE usually favoured on pacers, but since the track was redeveloped a few years back it tends to race very evenly and maybe even favour those running on (that’s our theory anyway, so watch out). So feel safe to bet, every horse should have its chance. This is always a great program with highly competitive fields, with lots of chances. Betting advice is to spread win bets around in a race, usually there is plenty of value so you can back more than one horse in a race. RESULTS : Bit more rain come than expected and track a DEAD(4), but probably worse than that. Early races were dominated by on pacers, though some of this may have been tempo related, and later part of the program they came off the rail and favoured those finishing on out wide. Frustrating day on the punt with a swag load of 2nds throughout the tips and selected bets. BEST BET : Race 1: 2-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS $15 WIN 2nd W=$4.40 Extremely honest and under rated type who is fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent. Poked through on rails at MV to run home strongly, then ran on very well at Flem at start in higher quality race when hampered by outside barrier. Can race handy if required in small field if there is no speed. RESULTS : Beaten by one who leads all the way, loomed up and not far off them. Keep following, maybe just needs a race with a bit more pace. BEST BET : Race 4: 5-ROMNEYA $10 WIN 2nd W=$3.10 Racing extremely well, hit the lead early at Flem and fought on well against the males. Back to females only here, and like that she has the 1400M run, which her rivals do not. Should be able to sit on the speed and make her own luck here. RESULTS : Certainity beaten !. Gets shuffled back from outside barrier and leader skips away, she comes through the pace to finish with a flourish and makes up six lengths on winners in last 200M. Should've won. Good filly and keep on following her. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 18-MANGONUI (emerg) $5 EW SCR $10 This is a bit of a silly race, with the majority of the field 1st up so might as well go for one at odds. This one is drawn nice, excellent run first up when had to wait and swing across the whole field and was coming home hard. Still fairly lightly raced and record isn’t that bad at all and might get forgotten down at the bottom of the field if it gets a run and start way over the odds. DAILY DOUBLE : (Races 7,9) 7,9 / 4,5 x $2.50 = $10 9-ORANGE COUNTY 1st W=$6.90/ 4-LIGHT VISION 2nd W=$6.00 Last leg Race 9 look a race in two - numbers (4) and (5) who seem to be developing a bit of a rivalry. Should be some value through the Daily Double with the tough feature race, and we think the 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART, 7-ORANGE COUNTY stick out in that race, so double them up. RESULTS : Nice try - narrow the main race down to 2 chances only and find the winner, just couldn't quite nab the 2nd leg. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. Race 7 : Flexi Trifecta : 7,9 / 4,5,7,9,12,17,20 / 4,5,7,9,12,17,20 x $5 = 8.33% 9-ORANGE COUNTY 1ST W=$6.90 / - / - Trifecta should pay OK in the main race, so take the two best winning chances with the value place chances and keep your fingers crossed the dividend blows out. If the (20) doesn’t get a run add in the (18). RESULTS : Find the winner, but not the place getters, trifecta only pays $340 anyways SPENT : $50 RETURN : $10 NET : $-40

The Tips: Race 1: 2-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS, 4-HIFALUTIN, 9-ROYALE HARMONY Race 2: 9-DUAL HEMISPHERE, 7-INDITE, 13-ESTEE Race 3: 18-MANGONUI (emerg), 10-KING JOHANNES, 12-ROCKPECKER, 4-SEA BATTLE Race 4: 5-ROMNEYA, 7-ORTENSIA, 2-SUGAR BABE Race 5: 10-TIME THIEF, 6-LORD TAVISTOCK, 2-ROCKDALE Race 6: 4-MALDIVIAN, 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 10-LITTORIO Race 7: 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART, 7-ORANGE COUNTY, 17-DORABELLA Race 8: 11-BENATAR, 15-VIVACIOUS SPIRIT, 13-PRINCESS MARIZZA Race 9: 5-GALLOPIN, 4-LIGHT VISION, 3-GUYNO

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 2-SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS 2nd W=$4.40 4-HIFALUTIN 9-ROYALE HARMONY

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 9-DUAL HEMISPHERE 7-INDITE 13-ESTEE

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 10-KING JOHANNES 12-ROCKPECKER 3rd W=$11.10 4-SEA BATTLE 2nd W=$7.70

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 5-ROMNEYA 2nd W=$3.10 7-ORTENSIA 1st W=$3.80 2-SUGAR BABE 3rd W=$3.60 Quinella : $6.10 Trifecta : $29.00

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 10-TIME THIEF 2nd W=$4.00 6-LORD TAVISTOCK 2-ROCKDALE

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 4-MALDIVIAN 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER 1st W=$1.50 10-LITTORIO 3rd W=$41.90, P=$5.90

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART 7-ORANGE COUNTY 1st W=$6.90 17-DORABELLA

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 11-BENATAR 2nd W=$8.60 15-VIVACIOUS SPIRIT 1st W=$6.80 13-PRINCESS MARIZZA Quinella : $28.50

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 5-GALLOPIN 4-LIGHT VISION 2nd W=$6.00 3-GUYNO

RACE 6: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800M WFA

Tips: 4-MALDIVIAN 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER 1st W=$1.50 10-LITTORIO 3rd W=$41.90, P=$5.90

Others: Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 4-MALDIVIAN Handy : 3-TEARS I CRY, 5-THE FUZZ, 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 11-INDIO GLORIOSO, 12-ZARITA Back : 1-POMPEII RULER, 2-DOURO VALLEY, 6-VIEWED, 8-KIBBUTZ, 9-LIGHT FANTASTIC, 10-LITTORIO, 13-RIVA SAN Chances: 4-MALDIVIAN seems to have come back to racing as good as ever this spring and do get the feeling he is about to really hit peak form. Fitter for the 3 runs in, best form is at Caulfield, and proven in class and distance. Fought on extremely well 1st up, then kicked here 2nd up and the superstar (7) really had to pull out everything to come out and run him down. Look a sure thing last start at MV, pace was pretty fierce, did get exposed and had to come early, but didn’t find that much in the straight, was probably a little disappointing even allowing for excuses. Still, he is proven over the distance, should lead and roll and dictate this race and think he is a genuine threat to the HUSSLER. Strong chance. 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER is fast becoming a brand name (we are still waiting patiently by the mail box for the cap by the way). Totally dominant 3YO who went the extra yard and won against open company, so much smarter than your average 3YO. Sight hiccup 1st up this time in when coming off minor injury and plenty of excuses, back to form here 2 starts back when really pricked back ears and got down and dirty and chased hard to run down the (4), then was explosive winning at Flem. Has proven himself as a 4YO in open company, which so many “star” 3YOs fail to do, but he is a league above. Still sure he won’t be as dominate against the open grades as he was as a 3YO - he is beatable, not infallible even. Test comes today as he starts to go over the longer trips. Interesting to note trainer raised the possibility this week of him being ridden to the lead sometime this spring (not today though). Today is another test though, but he is yet to flunk a grade. Obviously one to beat. 1st W=$1.50 9-LIGHT FANTASTIC started the spring with a bang and caught the HUSSLER napping, or on an off day, or whilst he wasn’t looking. Got left behind in the dust last start at Flem when may have raced a little flat - 1st up win was a gut buster on a wet track on a fast pace, so maybe that’s why he was a little flat 2nd up. Will be ridden quietly back in the field with cover and wait for a finishing burst. Think that is part of the problem, is likely to be standing the (7) a start in his races and not sure he will be able to come from behind again and get past him. Still you should see an improved effort here and he won’t be far away, will even probably loom up as a winning threat when he goes to make his run ½ way down the straight. Don’t think he will be beaten as far as he was last time, just watch out he does not blow out to silly odds. Rough chance 10-LITTORIO has always threatened to hit the big time, but never quite got there. Excellent spring 3YO season when was obviously still a little immature, and competitive through the Autumn 3YO classics. Really liked the 1st up run, once he got out he lengthened and come home with a bit of gusto. Probably prefer at Flem on the bigger track, but if he keeps on improving (and should be suited by the extra distance here today) and repeats the run of last start think he is a blow out chance here. Rough chance. 3rd W=$41.90, P=$5.90 Place: 5-THE FUZZ is another who is probably under rated, took lots of hard racing to find form last spring, but come out in Autumn and again this time in and ran excellent races over shorter trips fresh. Unlucky not to win last start and they really can do amazing things with photo shop these days as did look like he had got there. Should be able to position forward here and will probably run a bit of a race, so worth a place chance. 12-ZARITA is an very honest on pace staying mare. Fitter for the 2 runs in and stuck on OK against the HUSSLER last start. Good thing with her is that she makes her own luck, sits on speed and puts herself into her races. Can’t see her beating the (7) on last run, was clearly licked. Place Sacking: 1-POMPEII RULER was flagged for great things, maybe even leadership of the Liberal party, before injury set him back at start of last spring. Been nursed along, and great effort to even get him back to the track. Even more amazing effort when he flew home first up against quality opposition to remind everyone that on best form he has the potential to actually be the best. Trainer is getting him fit via racing, as can’t take much hard work. Exposed 3 wide on a furious pace last start and was disappointing, but this probably exposed his lack of hard race fitness. Note jockey change too. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to some form, but probably need to let him run after disappointing last start. 2nd W=$13.40 2-DOURO VALLEY is a more than capable stayer on his day. 2nd up and up 400M and proven that he is out of his depth at WFA, yet alone against the superstars. Will probably run on enough to maintain interest for later in the spring. No 3-TEARS I CRY is probably a little under rated.1st up run was actually quite good, with big weight got set alight early and deep and wasn’t beaten that far. Actually wasn’t that surprised when he popped up in the finish last start at long odds, that was an excellent run as well, and came home strongly out wide. Probably does go best at MV though. Up to the 1800M today is the question, likely to be suspect at the trip, especially at WFA against this sort of opposition. Probably race more handy today in this field, and won’t be far off them, but wait for the right race. No 6-VIEWED is a staying type doing some warm up laps. 2nd up and up 400M, didn’t do much 1st up and not in this class and weight scale. No 8-KIBBUTZ is last year’s VRC Derby winner who has been very disappointing this spring. Didn’t get going at all in slow ground 1st up, then cut back to inside at Flem, but still failed to run on. Form is very disappointing, should appreciate the extra distance and might need racing, but suspect he has not come up and steering well clear till he shows some form. No 11-INDIO GLORIOSO is an ARG import who might be better off sticking to soccer. Can’t have till shows some form, only interest is that he did set the pace last start at Flem, so might go up and put some pressure on the (4), but will probably sit outside him. No 13-RIVA SAN is a staying mare who can be a little hard to catch. 2nd up and up 200M and fair enough effort 1st up, but hard to see her beating home any of those who finished in front of her that day who are also going to have just as much improvement to come. No Summary: Going to be a great race, and today we get a partial answer for the burning question of the spring : is the 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER going to stay? Don’t think this race is over by any means. After the Memsie was actually quite keen to get on 4-MALDIVIAN today - on that day he led, kicked against the fence in the straight (which was the worse going), and really 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER had to pull out everything to prick back the ears and run him down - and only a long neck in it. Today same track and conditions, 4-MALDIVIAN is the one proven and suited over more ground, don’t think there is going to be much between them at all. If 4-MALDIVIAN hadn’t been slightly disappointing last week and 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER hadn’t blown then off the track in the Makybe Diva, would be backing 4-MALDIVIAN with some confidence. 4-MALDIVIAN should cross and lead here, think they will make sure they ride him to the front after coming unstuck last week. 11-INDIO GLORIOSO probably comes up and sits on his outside, and 3-TEARS I CRY, 5-THE FUZZ, 12-ZARITA all capable of sitting handy. Actually think 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER might end up standing the leader more of a start than expected, and not just be stalking on his outside. Think 4-MALDIVIAN will give a pretty decent kick in the straight too. Just not much between them last two meetings, so not sure there should be so much between them in the odds today. So yes, we are going to do it - tipping 4-MALDIVIAN ! from 7-WEEKEND HUSSLER and 10-LITTORIO the blow out chance. One to risk: 8-KIBBUTZ Roughie: 10-LITTORIO 3rd W=$41.90, P=$5.90 RESULTS : The HUSSLER goes on his winning way. Have to admit we went the early crow and let out a very embarassing "GO MAL" when 4-MALDIVIAN kicked clear on the home turn - and stopped dead in his tracks about 50M later. Not sure how he is going , trainer keeps saying he needs hard racing, but that's two starts in a row now that he has been asked to go for home - and hasn't found much. Ready to drop off. The HUSSLER runs out the 1800M no trouble, and gets the perfect stalking position all the way. Going to be near impossible to beat whilst he keeps drawing good barriers. Huge run again from 1-POMPEII RULER who is going to get a lot of improvement from that run - you would think he is going to be a pretty genuine chance of beaten the superstar next start. We found the value roughie in 10-LITTORIO 3rd W=$41.90, P=$5.90

RACE 7: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES 1400M GROUP 1

Tips: 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART 7-ORANGE COUNTY 1st W=$6.90 17-DORABELLA

Others: 20,5,12,4 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART, 19-KINGDA KA (emerg) Handy : 4-RUBISCENT, 5-VALEDICTUM, 7-ORANGE COUNTY, 10-HERE DE ANGELS, 12-MARCHING, 15-TURFFONTEIN, 16-FRIDAY CREEK, 17-DORABELLA, 18-J'ADANE, 20-SOUND JOURNEY (emerg) Back : 1-NICONERO, 2-BON HOFFA, 3-SWICK, 6-ALEXANDER OF HALES, 8-ESKIMO QUEEN, 11-OUR SMOKING JOE, 13-STICKPIN, 14-SERIOUS SPEED, 21-PILLAR OF HERCULES (emerg), 22-AZTEC SMYTZER (emerg) Chances: 5-VALEDICTUM is a gutsy galloper who just keeps coming up and staying competitive in these sorts of races. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up run was excellent, when beaten less than a length and was hampered by horses not racing straight. Then off to Syd, so think we can forgive that run, 2nd up and up 200 and other way of going was a fair enough effort. Can race on speed if required, and think his best races are ridden like that. Has drawn an outside barrier though, so probably forced to drop well back or race wide here, neither of which are desirable. But think his form is OK going into this and he is a genuine chance. 7-ORANGE COUNTY looks primed to run a race here, fitter for the 2 runs in , both of which have been excellent, and was unlucky not to win last start when was really diving on the line. 3rd up and up 200M again coming off runs of 1000M and 1200M. Little bit of rain about a huge help cause he does need just a tiny bit of give in the ground to show best. 5 times winners the 1400M and loves the distance. Probably would’ve preferred him having the 1400M run coming into this though. Big plus here is the weights - only a nostril between him and the (2) last start and meets that one 1.5kgs better off today. Definite chance. 1st W=$6.90 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART is a tough, consistent on pacer who looks set to run a big race here. Fitter for the 2 runs in, had the run over the 1400M, 1st up led and ran a huge race, 2nd up onto a heavy track in Sydney and run is good enough under the circumstances. Won feature 1400M race here during Autumn and can easily do it again. Despite big field does not seem to be a lot of pace in this race and should be able to take his time to go forward and dictate this race. Will make his own luck whilst a lot of his rivals are waiting for runs back in the field. Strong chance, quite keen to bet. 17-DORABELLA is fitter for the 2 runs in and like that she has had the 1400M run leading into this, which many of her rivals have not. Was a spread finish last start, but she probably should’ve won, she couldn’t get out for most of the straight. Has drawn wide, but suspect they will push forward here. Hard to line up how good she is against Aus. form and looks like she is going to start over the odds. Think she is the roughie to watch out for here, in form, race fit and light weight. 20-SOUND JOURNEY (emerg) is fitter for the 2 runs in and big bonus of the run over the 1400M. Made good ground 1st up, and then started absolutely ridiculous odds 2nd up - mainly cause no one could find anything else to bet on in the race, rather than him deserving to be even money. Lightly raced, knows how to win, no weight, fitter for the 2 runs in, think he is an excellent chance if he gets into the field - especially as lot of punters who got burnt last start might steer away. Drawn wide and does race handy, so might get caught out, but think he is a solid rough chance into this. Go well. SCR Place: 2-BON HOFFA won this race last year, when he really motored home down the middle of the track to reel in some that had kicked clear. Top line performer who went astray during the Autumn after apparently not liking his horse flu injection (or maybe he was just wanting sympathy so he could get some more horsey lollipops - who knows?). Eye catching win tearing and dodging through field down the straight last start, and he won that race going into this last year as well. Looks like he is back in form. Last year though he did have the 2 runs going into this, this year just the one. Does tend to drop back in his races, strong finishing burst, but the (2) barrier is a bit of a worry here. This race is often very competitive, big field, and lots of interference and hard luck stories, so bit concerned about him getting stuck on the rails. Last win was good, so cannot entirely dismiss, but preferring a place up in distance here. 2nd W=$5.20 4-RUBISCENT caused a boil over on this day last year when beat MISS FINLAND at 50-1 in the Underwood Stakes, by getting to sit on leader and kick clear. Best form is fresh, and at Caulfield, and think he is best suited around the 1400M-1600M trip and does struggle over much further (despite the win last year). Drawn well and can sit up on the speed and make his own luck which is a big plus. Thought the 1st up run was a little disappointing, was expecting more, even if it was in WFA company. Bit hard to back with confidence after that run, but think with barrier and on his best he is a rough chance, so worth throwing into trifectas and first fours. Rough. 12-MARCHING is a pretty consistent on pacer on his day, and well drawn here pretty much automatically puts him into the race. 2nd up and up 200M and 1st up run was just fair. Pretty consistent when strikes form and expecting some improvement today. Will probably find one better, but definitely put in as a value chance for trifectas and first fours, shouldn’t be too far off them. 14-SERIOUS SPEED ran a decent race 1st up down the straight. Drop back horse with a huge finishing burst, whose win in the 1000 Guineas here last year was very impressive. Accounted herself well during Sydney autumn, but think she is best on a dry track and this way of going. Nice light weight and powerful finishing burst should make her a factor here. Does tend to drop a long way back though, so likely to be trailing the field on the rails and need an awful lot of luck to get clear. Suspect she will put in a run today, so maybe a place chance. 15-TURFFONTEIN is probably a little under rated and don’t think we have seen the best of this one yet. Tends to drop back and grind home , but from OK barrier suspect he will race in the first half of the field here. Nice run 1st up in tough competitive race, well weighted into this against the (18), and extra distance should suit, but is going into this tough test 2nd up and up 300M in distance, which is a challenge. Prefer to let run, but shouldn’t be that far off them, so worth thinking about for a place.3rd W=$12.50 18-J'ADANE has only won the once, but keeps threatening in major races. 2nd up and up 300M into this is an ask, but did run home well 1st up in good company. Drawn in and has shown she can race handy so might sit just behind the leaders here. Does meet the (15) 2kgs worse off from last start and was beaten home by it, so not well weighted here. Bit hard to enthuse about the winning strike rate, but she is just about always about in these sort of races so worth a place bet. Sacking: 1-NICONERO is pretty consistent in these type of races and is usually never far off. Ran 2nd in this race last year, when came with a strong finish and even protested against the winner the (2), which looked rather ambitious. Does have a fascinating habit of finding trouble in his races too, so lucky he never visits night clubs with off season football players, but is just about always running on. Last year he ran 2nd coming off 2 good lead up runs, including one in the Memsie. Had the 2 runs in again this year, solid effort when 3rd on a heavy track first up, then failed badly when 2nd up and short priced favourite and had heart irregularity. Drawn outside here, think concern is he will probably drop well back and be standing these a start, so safe to assume something racing mid field or better will get a kick on him and he won’t be able to run them down. Coming off a bad run maybe just want to see him go around today. 3-SWICK is a dedicated straight Flem 1200M professional, so good to see him branching out here - let’s just hope he doesn’t get lost on the way to the course. Pretty eye catching run first up when making solid ground over the last 100M back on the middle of the course. Did win over 1400M Group 3 at Sandown a few years back. Likely to drop back here, tough competitive field, 2nd up and up 200M, just think Flem 1200M is his thing, and would have to be at absolute peak to be a factor here. Happy to risk. 6-ALEXANDER OF HALES is an import who is still peering at the map and looking for directions to the casino. Not much to report about 1st up run and have to wait till he shows some form. No 8-ESKIMO QUEEN returns to the scene of her lay down and play dead routine on last Caulfield Cup day. Never really picked up from that last spring, and mixed form a little during Autumn. Generally does pull out a run fresh, especially over this trip. Wining 1st up over 1400M in this sort of race though looks a pretty big ask. Will probably run on and be thereabouts, but happy to pass on. 10-HERE DE ANGELS is well drawn and should be fitter for 2 runs in, 1st up run didn’t get going on wet track, 2nd up run back to form and right in the finish. Firmish track here today will suit. Set pace in this race last year and kicked well clear on the home turn and went for home - and look home - but got run down. Should go forward today but probably be ridden a little quieter - or a lot quieter if they watch last year’s video. Up 200M in distance again here. Seriously suspect at this distance, think he only just gets 1200M - and then only around a bend and not down the straight. Ridden quietly sitting just off speed might show a sight again and look threatening in the straight, but pretty sure he gets runs down regardless of what he does, so happy to risk. 11-OUR SMOKING JOE has ability on his day, but didn’t really step up during the Autumn - was thereabouts, but didn’t really put himself into the finish. Now been 2.5 years since he won a race which is a real worry, but guess he has been contesting all the top line events. These days tends to need the run fresh and happy to let him run - especially dropping back from outside barrier. 13-STICKPIN is a horse we simply cannot catch, and not sure we want to, sneakily suspect he is rather over rated. 2nd up and up 200M and honest enough run 1st up down the straight against many of these, when did strike some trouble. Drawn out probably sees him drop back. Just think he is out of his depth in this class and happy to leave out. 16-FRIDAY CREEK is fitter for the 2 runs in, just they haven’t been that great. Raced up on the speed 1st up and didn’t show much, but wet track probably did not suit, then didn’t show anything down the straight. Drawn OK, and can race handy so will make own luck. Dry track and the 1400M around a bend probably suits more, so might see some improvement here, but can’t have on current form. No 19-KINGDA KA (emerg) is 1st up but had the 2 barrier trials leading into this so should be fairly forward. Still on the rise and plenty of improvement to come, so have to respect going into this. Can push forward too, and has inside barrier, so is going to change the complexion of this race a fair bit if he gets into the field. Just think it is hard to win over 1400M 1st up, even harder for on pacers to do it, usually they just need a run or two to get them race fit. Passing. 21-PILLAR OF HERCULES (emerg) is fitter for the 2 runs in and will certainly appreciate the extra distance. Runs over the shorter trips have been good enough to consider here, and drawn nice barrier to make his own luck. Just seems a little one paced, needs to roll on the speed and keep rolling, bit uncertain about him in big fields, having the zip to take runs. Unlikely to get a run anyway, unless his old mate Tony pulls a few strings. Passing 22-AZTEC SMYTZER (emerg) is 4th emergency which is like being 20th in line for the throne. Not much point really, unless they want to remake classic comedies like King Ralph. Fitter for 2 runs in and runs on well on his day, but won’t get a run, and out of depth if he does. Summary: Seems to be standard now that we have 4 emergencies for every race, which must make it very crowded on the interchange bench. This race is always very competitive, big fields, and always produces a swag of hard luck stories with horse being interfered with, or blocked for runs, or not being able to get a bet on before they jumped, etc. Looking back through past winners it really sticks out how many won their lead up race going into this - tough contest, you really need to be in peak form to win it. In which case you would just about plonk the house on 2-BON HOFFA being the only last start winner in this field. So in doing the form, wanting to stick to those who have shown last start form, who have had the run over the 1400M, who can race handy and make their own luck in the big field. Not impossible that one of the others is going to pull out a blistering run, but prefer to stick to those who meet these criteria. Despite big field, think the pace will be genuine without being overly fast, 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART should lead, more pressure if 19-KINGDA KA (emerg) gets a run, with 4-RUBISCENT, 10-HERE DE ANGELS, 16-FRIDAY CREEK, 17-DORABELLA pressing up behind the leader. Happy to back the leader 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART despite the big field, he is a tough on pacer and two runs in have been good and ready to do something here today - think he will kick in the straight and be in this for a long way. 7-ORANGE COUNTY is the obvious danger and think these two stick out and happy to have something on both of them. For rough chances, look to those with 2 runs in and the 1400M run, so its 17-DORABELLA, 20-SOUND JOURNEY (emerg). Big field, so probably worth attacking a flexi trifecta or first four for a dividend. Suggestion is to play around with 9-GOTTA HAVE HEART, 7-ORANGE COUNTY as the winning chances, and for place look to 17-DORABELLA, 20-SOUND JOURNEY (emerg) as the value runners to blow out the dividend, along with 5-VALEDICTUM, 4-RUBISCENT, 12-MARCHING as one of these is likely to race on pace and bob up. One to risk: 10-HERE DE ANGELS Roughie: 17-DORABELLA, 20-SOUND JOURNEY (emerg) RESULTS : Tough race, but we were confident about our two picks, and found the convincing winner 9-ORANGE COUNTY, who wins by a margin. No problem with 2-BON HOFFA from his inside barrier - ends up coming down the outside of the track - widest of all ! No luck for 18-J'ADANE who gets sandwiched and dragged back through the field from inside barrier. Huge run 5-VALEDICTUM wide all the way from outside barrier.