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CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 18th SEPTEMBER 2010
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: WINDY, SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($100):
There were a few days in Melbourne this week when it didn’t actually rain. Still bloody cold though. The racing calendar is telling us that it is Spring Time, but it’s still scarf, beanie and mittens for the sensible punter cause unfortunately rubbing together losing tickets does not generate heat on it’s own.

Track is currently rated a GOOD(3) which is surprising, cause Melbourne has been drenched for weeks and there is still a bit of rain around. Showers and windy heading into the weekend, so you would suspect the track would end up a genuine DEAD – but it is still likely to be a lot firmer than we have had in Melbourne for the last month or so. Just keep an eye on how much rain is coming over the weekend. Likely to be quite windy on Saturday as well so watch and see what effect that has.

Rail is back to TRUE here, and generally Caulfield races genuinely when the rail is back to that position. So, probably for the first time this spring, we should actually get even racing and every horse should have it’s chance.

Underwood Stakes Day always means racing is starting to get pretty serious, big fields, the new 3YOs are about to step up, and horses are getting back onto firm ground and reaching form so everything is about to go up a step in intensity. Watch out for some form reversals back on a firmer track. There are a few boom horses going around today who are all going to start at short odds – Race 1 : 1-ALTIUS, Race 4 : 1-TOORAK TOFF, Race 6 : 10 – SO YOU THINK, Race 7 : 1-DOUBTFUL JACK, Race 8 : 7-MOUDRE, all look extremely hard to beat, but just remember these are now tough competitive fields with some depth and suspect all of these are going to start way under the odds on the tote. Hence, we have tried to find some value in the selections, cause short priced favourites really aren’t our thing. Plenty to bet on today, so let’s spread it around a little and double the betting portfolio to $100.

RESULTS : Track does race evenly, maybe just slightly tends towards on pacers and those drawn good barriers as quite a few strong finishers just fail to get there. Most of those short priced favourites got beaten, and all start horrible value on the tote. The tips have an extremely ordinary day out - and yet we manage a tidy profit in the Betting Portfolio. How does that work?

BEST BET : Race 7: 12-RESPONSE $15 WIN 1st W=$5.00 = 15 x 5 = $75
QUINELLA : Race 7: 12-RESPONSE, 1-DOUBTFUL JACK x $5
QUINELLA : Race 7: 12-RESPONSE, 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED x $5 1st 12-RESPONSE W=$5.00, 2nd 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED W=$14.90. QUINELLA = $30.90 = 30.90 X 5 = $154.50
Going to keep following this one even though it let us down last start. Two runs in have been excellent, 1st up kicked clear on inside worse going and took some effort to run down, 2nd up looked hopeless when jockey settled her too far back, but flew home and would have won in another 10M. Sure jockey will settle her a lot more forward today and should be in the finish. Take some quinellas with the other in form and fit runners as a saver.
RESULTS : Only the one collect for the day, but its a beauty. Spot the well backed winner of the feature race, and jockey is proactive, goes to the lead and pinches the race. Easy value quinella with the other race fit in form one and that's enough to put us into the black.

BEST WIN : Race 9: 4-IRISH LIGHTS $10 WIN X
Former boom 3YO filly whose form has tapered off a little bit. But does look better kept as a sprinter over the 1200M trip, good chance she has not been handling the wet tracks and should improve back on dry ground today. Has race fitness over most of these, has loomed up both starts this time in but failed to finish it off, but suspect it was because of the wet tracks. This looks suitable today and expect improvement. Maybe take the quinella with the ridiculously big even field as well as there is the chance something will ping at long odds.
RESULTS : Yet again looms up but does not finish it off. Does look like she is finished.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-HEART OF DREAMS $13 EW X
Probably can’t go wrong (how many times have punters said that?) backing this one each way. Fit, in form, hit the front last start and looked the winner, but just got run over by one nearing the line. Always peaks 3rd up, won this race last year, and will be suited back on dry ground. Utterly, totally safe, 100% guaranteed each way bet – so will probably run 4th.
RESULTS : Absolute dead set flop. Worse run of career, box seats, looks ready to ping on the turn and does nothing. Extremely disappointing.

BEST WIN : Race 2: 9-ZANTELAGH $5 WIN 3rd W=$8.40
QUINELLA : Race 2: 9-ZANTELAGH, 5-CHARLIE’S QUEEN x $2
QUINELLA : Race 2: 9-ZANTELAGH, 3-SNEAKY TSU x $2
Lightly raced one who goes well here. 1st up ran on OK, but that was on unsuitable wet track and likely to improve back on a firmer track today. 2nd up, but stays at the 1400M and might run on well over the top of these in a genuinely run race.
RESULTS : Leader runs them along and runs a fast time so hard for anything to come from the back and win. This one flies home though, keep following there is a win coming soon.

QUINELLA : Race 1: 1-ALTIUS, 4-PITT STREET x $5 2nd 1-ALTIUS W=$1.90, 3rd 4-PITT STREET W=$6.60
Think this looks a stand out quinella in the first race. 1-ALTIUS is one on the way up and flying – surprised they didn’t run it in the Guineas Prelude. Is lumped with 59 kgs though, but might be something special. The 4-PITT STREET stuck on pretty well last start at MV when was wide all the way and probably should have won start before that at Geelong when jockey was cruising to the line, but didn’t see one coming through on the inside till too late.
RESULTS : Small field, 1st race of day always going to be tough for a back marker, but just thought he might have the class. Actually he races like a big slug and really needs to be forced into the finish. Can make excuses, but not convinced about him going forward.

BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 9-INTENCION $5 EW 4th W=$32.00, P=$5.80
Think this one looks way over the odds in the Guineas Prelude. Hasn’t done much wrong in 3 starts to date, stuck on well here last start, back to a dry track and up in distance should suit. Lots of back markers in this race, not much speed, so if they can settle him handy might run a race at odds. Big fella – check him out in the mounting yard if you go to the races. Currently around $26 on TAB Fixed Odds.
RESULTS : Darn it ! Gets perfect run, sneaks up on inside before the turn, presents like he is going to whoosh through and run away with it, but dies on run. Who was that goose going the early crow on the rails at Caulfield? How embarassing.

BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 13-FAIRFIELD FLAME $5 EW X
NZ import who seems to be on the up, eye catcher coming home hard here 1st up, then cruised from last past big field at Sandown mid week for a soft win. This is a tough field, but looks to be rapidly improving and obviously the Cups are a possibility. Currently around $26 on TAB Fixed Odds, but don’t think that is going to last very long.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 11-MR CHARLIE at around $5 5th W=$5.20
We are foolish enough to take on a last start impressive Flem winner. Inside barrier, likely to drop well back here and there doesn’t seem to be much speed so could easily be caught up at the back of the field whilst a few smart ones whoosh for home. There wasn’t much with form in that Flem race he won – this is much harder. Plus not very well weighted against the (6) who he meets 3.5kgs worse off. Quite a few on the up in this so suspect one of the others will be too brilliant today.
RESULTS : Actually suited by the solidly run race and runs into the race well, but giving the ones up the front too much of a lead. Looks like will go on this spring, so won't be laying him again.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
FLEXI TRIFECTA : Race 7: 1,12 / 1,4,9,11,12 / 1,4,7,9,10,11,12 ,13,14 x $5 = 8.92% 1st 12-RESPONSE W=$5.00 / 2nd 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED W=$14.90 / 3rd 10-WOORIM W=$17.60.
TRIFECTA = $575.50 = 575.50 x 0.0892 = $51.30
Stick with the main two winning chances in the main race – the 12-RESPONSE, 1-DOUBTFUL JACK. Solid value chances to the (11), and the (9), so throw them in for 2nd, and go wide for third and throw in silly running on long shots like the (7),(10), (13),(14). Big field so trifecta will blow out if anything out of the ordinary gets into the finish.
RESULTS : Trifecta in the main race ! Woo Hoo. Summed up perfectly, presented on a platter, but the dividend was a bit ordinary.

SPENT : $100
RETURN : $280.80
NET : $+180.80

The Tips:

Race 1: 1-ALTIUS, 4-PITT STREET, 2-ECHOES OF HEAVEN
Race 2: 9-ZANTELAGH, 5-CHARLIE’S QUEEN, 3-SNEAKY TSU
Race 3: 6-ABOUT READY, 7-UXORIOUS, 3-NINE TALES
Race 4: 10-REKINDLED INTEREST, 1-TOORAK TOFF, 9-INTENCION
Race 5: 1-YOSEI, 4-RINGA RINGA ROSIE, 14-SPEED OF DARK
Race 6: 5-HEART OF DREAMS, 10-SO YOU THINK, 4-METAL BENDER
Race 7: 12-RESPONSE, 1-DOUBTFUL JACK, 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED
Race 8: 7-MOUDRE, 13-FAIRFIELD FLAME, 10-APPREHEND
Race 9: 4-IRISH LIGHTS, 7-RETURNTOSENDER, 14-AVIONICS



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-ALTIUS 2nd W=$1.90
4-PITT STREET 3rd W=$6.60
2-ECHOES OF HEAVEN

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
9-ZANTELAGH 3rd W=$8.40
5-CHARLIE’S QUEEN
3-SNEAKY TSU

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
6-ABOUT READY 3rd W=$3.30
7-UXORIOUS SCR
3-NINE TALES

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
10-REKINDLED INTEREST
1-TOORAK TOFF 2nd W=$1.90
9-INTENCION

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
1-YOSEI
4-RINGA RINGA ROSIE
14-SPEED OF DARK

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
5-HEART OF DREAMS
10-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.80
4-METAL BENDER 3rd W=$6.60


RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
12-RESPONSE 1st W=$5.00
1-DOUBTFUL JACK
11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED 2nd W=$14.90

Quinella : $30.90

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
7-MOUDRE 3rd W=$2.60
13-FAIRFIELD FLAME
10-APPREHEND

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
4-IRISH LIGHTS
7-RETURNTOSENDER
14-AVIONICS



RACE 6: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800M WFA
Tips:
5-HEART OF DREAMS
10-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.80
4-METAL BENDER 3rd W=$6.60

Others: 1, 3

Pace: EVEN
Leaders : 3-ZAVITE
Handy : 4-METAL BENDER, 5-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-RED RULER, 10-SO YOU THINK , 11-ZABRASIVE
Back : 1-SHOCKING, 2-MASTER O'REILLY, 7-BUCCELLATI, 8-LARGO LAD, 12-DARIANA

Chances:
1-SHOCKING is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who seems to have stepped up a level this spring. Previously, he was only competitive in staying handicaps, he seems to have improved and can now cut it at WFA over shorter trips as well. Ran on really well 1st up in the Liston, then dominate win coming over the top of them at Flem. However, track was strongly favouring those running on out wide that day, and he definitely goes better on a more spacious track like Flem. He has come to hand much quicker this spring than last spring, last spring he was running on well in most of his races – but something had normally grabbed a break on him and he had left it too late. Back on a firm track today but should go just as well. Plus is that he beat a few of these last start and seems to be going better than ever. Negative is that probably doesn’t go quite as well here at Caulfield, in the Herbert Power and the Coongy here last year both times he was running on well, but just took a while to wind up. Query might be in this race which can often lack speed whether something pinches a break on him and he comes home too late. Is going well though. Chance.
3-ZAVITE is a solid, on pace, handicap stayer who thrives on lots of racing. Or at least – that’s
who he used to be. The new, improved ZAVITE has come out this spring and ran two absolutely slashing runs at WFA - 1st up in the Liston he was actually the best finisher, and then 2nd up in the Makybe Diva he again made solid ground. And - what’s more – those runs were both on wet tracks when he doesn’t actually handle ! 3rd up, fitter, back on a dry track, seems to be going pretty well. You would think they would send him to the lead today, small field, not much speed – reckon he is a decent chance of an upset. Even though the 10 starts at Caulfield for 1 placing is a bit of a turn off, think he is clearly the best rough chance. Rough. 4th W=$54.10
4-METAL BENDER is a Sydney visitor coming down to try his luck for Spring Glory. Fitter for the 2 runs in, going along very well, lightly raced with a quality win strike rate. Big plus with him is that he handles all track conditions – and more importantly – he can position handy in a small field and make his own luck. Suspect he might get pretty well supported too as the first of the Sydney money comes in for spring. Solid chance. 3rd W=$6.60
5-HEART OF DREAMS has been coming along nicely, and still manages to maintain a pretty healthy win/place strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both been full of merit, ran on well in the Liston, then looked the winner in the Makybe Diva till swamped late by the (1). Both of those runs have been on wet tracks and probably goes much better back on a firmer track today. Won this race 3rd up last year, with almost identical form, and does have a habit of peaking in his 3rd run in each preparation. Seems set to be right in this race again this year. Does seem to just struggle a little once he gets to the 2000M, so this is about as far as he wants it – and probably wouldn’t want it solidly run either. Was sent out short priced favourite same track and distance in the St George here in the Autumn and had every chance to run down an outsider – and couldn’t. Placed an amazing 7 of 8 this track. But seems to be going well, dry track, about to peak, really liked how he found the front last time, can sit on speed and make his own luck and looks a solid chance today. Strong chance.
10-SO YOU THINK is probably going to be clearly the best horse in Australia by the end of the spring. His efforts to win the Cox Plate , and almost win the Emirates Stakes last year as a 3YO were astounding. Full year off, top secret throat operation done in a third world country and kept quiet, wet track, plenty of things to throw some doubt on him 1st up, so pretty solid effort to come out and win. Trainer has made it pretty clear he doesn’t really handle wet tracks, so to come out 1st up and win was pretty amazing. Even better – in the Memsie, WHOBEGOTYOU seemed to be tracking him and was ready to finish all over the top of him, yet this one kicked again. That form has held up strongly. The other thing to like about the last run was that he settled on speed, sat, and kicked clear - as early in his career he was dropping too far back, then over raced badly on the speed in the Emirates once his racing pattern had changed in the Cox Plate. Sitting and settling on speed, this horse could really be just about anything. Question is today 2nd up, and up 400M whether he might just come up a little flat – they can’t win every single week. Happy to back him for the rest of the spring, and good chance he will win today, but just feel the $1.80 on offer at the moment is a little bit short? One to beat. 1st W=$1.80

Place:
11-ZABRASIVE is a lightly raced stayer on the rise and hopefully is in for a big spring otherwise the Win Zabrasive website is going to have to find another angle to pitch. Actually interesting that his spring program is spelt out already because of the TAB competition – what happens if he is a late scratching one day and they need to change his program? Why doesn’t he appear as trained by the TAB in the form guide? His 1st up run was pretty good, he sat on the speed and kicked a little on the home turn. Probably better back on the dry today, lightly raced with a lot of upside so probably won’t take much racing to get to his best. Suspect he might settle a little further back today as they want him to settle and run a trip. He could actually run better than expected – just he is running into a few good ones today. Place.

Sacking:
2-MASTER O'REILLY is a solid WFA stayer who has made a niche out of flashing home late in WFA races to run 3rd or 4th. And yes – he has still has not won a race since 2007 Caulfield Cup - we are counting. Simply does not handle it wet but was forced to run in the Makybe Diva else spring campaign was going to drop too far behind. Firmer track today is definitely going to suit. Another who probably goes better at Flem rather than Caulfield. Did nothing 2nd up in this race last year – and that was coming off a slashing 3rd 1st up in the Makybe Diva. Wait till he hits Flem, 2000M and a firm track – and then, maybe, just maybe, sneak him into a First Four. No
6-RED RULER is fitter for the 2 runs in and is better back to a dry track today, but has had a million chances in these sort of races and just isn’t up to the grade. Definitely not.
7-BUCCELLATI is an overseas visitor who has done a fair bit of travelling in his day. Impossible to line these types up, did absolutely nothing 1st up in the Memsie – though was backed in from $150 to $100, so someone must have had a $50 note in their pocket that they didn’t feel particularly attached to. Will probably need it longer, and slower, and in a different hemisphere to show best. Wait and see.
8-LARGO LAD is a big bugger who does have some ability on his day – but never quite lived up to the hype. His fresh form is actually pretty good, so wasn’t that big of a surprise to see him loping down the middle of the track 1st up at Flem to win – especially seeing the track was favouring runners on. Another who is probably better off at Flem. Interestingly he has yet to win past 1600M – and has had plenty of tries, so maybe he doesn’t actually stay?,. There is always a chance that he could finally step up this spring – but suspect he will drop out and struggle to make much ground in this class. Prefer to see.
9-MOATIZE SCR
12-DARIANA is one of Bart’s heading towards Cup party time who ran on OK 1st up. Lightly raced and obviously still plenty to come with this one, just she is a dead set drop out and run on type and hard to win against a quality WFA field using those tactics. Passing. 2nd W=$28.00

Summary: Bit of a yes and no type field – there are probably 5 or so with solid winning chances and the rest you can put a line through straight away. Smallish field, and the Caulfield 1800M trip has thrown up some funny results in recent years (thinking RUBISCENT winning this race in 2007, and LA ROCKET winning the St George here back in the Autumn). Just a funny distance, sort of a middle ground run for a lot of these before they really peak, which probably leaves them a little vulnerable.

For a small field the pace should probably be OK - you would think they would try their luck today and send 3-ZAVITE to lead to set a solid tempo, but 4-METAL BENDER, 5-HEART OF DREAMS, 10-SO YOU THINK can all settle handy to the speed. You would think it is going to be pretty hard for anything coming from behind to win this – these three are all in top form, will race on speed and make their own luck, so you would think one of them will win.

Going to put 5-HEART OF DREAMS on top – looks ready to peak 3rd up, won this race last year, excels at Caulfield, back on a dry track. Really like the way he hit the front about 100M out last start. Probably just doesn’t want them to go too fast though as suspect at a solidly run trip. Would prefer to be on him at around $7 than take the $1.80 or so currently on offer about 10-SO YOU THINK who does look the one to beat, possibly going to be the best horse in Australia, but seems way under the odds to us. Maybe $1.80 if he was proven the best horse in Australia and had won a few Cox Plates. 4-METAL BENDER again going well on speed and a solid chance. Just going around the 1-SHOCKING a bit who around Caulfield might just give these a bit too much of a head start – suspect one of them will kick and he will come home too late. 3-ZAVITE the best rough, and if he rolls on the speed he could give you a run for your money.

One to risk: 8-LARGO LAD
Roughie: 3-ZAVITE 4th W=$54.10

The Key: Stick to the quality in form on pace horses.

RESULTS : 10-SO YOU THINK goes on his winning way and does look like finally we are going to have a stand out best horse in Australia. Probably won't to beaten again this spring, hopefully he can stay sound and keep going for a few years. Nice run from Bart's other one 12-DARIANA and 1-SHOCKING just wasn't comfortable around Caulfield - again they broke away from him before he got warm. Solid run, back him when he gets back to Flemington.

RACE 7: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M
Tips:
12-RESPONSE 1st W=$5.00
1-DOUBTFUL JACK
11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED 2nd W=$14.90

Quinella : $30.90
Others: 9,4

Pace: SOLID
Leaders : 5-JUNGLE RULER, 16-GATHERING
Handy : 1-DOUBTFUL JACK, 3-LA ROCKET, 4-RIGHTFULLY YOURS, 12-RESPONSE, 15-SISTER MADLY
Back : 2-GOLD SALUTE, 6-KIDNAPPED, 7-PINNACLES , 8-RAFFAELLO, 9-BELTROIS, 10-WOORIM, 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED, 13-DELAYEDREACTION, 14-ELECTROMOTIVE, 17-WE'RE GONNA ROCK

Chances:
1-DOUBTFUL JACK has been absolutely flying over winter – won 5 of last 6 runs and not only won but seriously thrashed his rivals. His little purple patch of form at Flem last 4 runs has been astounding – won by 4.3L, 5.5L, 6.5L and 3.3L – not just winning but absolutely smashing them. Can’t recall a horse doing that four starts in a row by those sorts of margins. And one of those wins was the Winter Championship final which is always a pretty hotly contested race. Definitely loves his wet tracks. Won with ease down the straight last start. Guess there are a few things here – he is away from Flem to Caulfield, he is onto a firmer track, and he finally gets lumped with some weight and he is contesting Group 1 for the 1st time. Doubt Caulfield is going to be much trouble, he camps on the speed and makes his own luck – should get a nice run from middle barrier today. Drier track might slow him down a little. Weight and Group 1 company should even it out a bit more though. Normally you would want to get on these in form, up and comers contesting Group 1s for the 1st time and with no weight – he has got lumped with top weight first time in. The race he won down the straight last start has been the form race for this race for the last few years. Going extremely well, he could really be anything at this stage, and will give this a solid shake. Question is will he be value in a big, tough competitive field? Probably prefer to back something at value odds, suspect he is going to start stifling odds on the tote ( < $2.50 ?) and be no value. Probably worth backing over $3.20 or so. One to beat.
4-RIGHTFULLY YOURS has always shown talent and best runs tend to be fresh, and 3 times winner this track. Think trainer said he doesn’t quite get a mile so they are going to keep him to shorter trips this time in. Always had perfect sit on the speed 1st up and never looked like losing over an unsuitable 1100M trip. Is 2nd up and up 300M into a tough competitive Group 1 which may be an ask. But loves Caulfield, in winning form, can sit with cover just behind the speed and has the talent to be in the finish here. Chance.
9-BELTROIS is a lightly raced one with a good win/place strike rate and might sneak into this field without much attention and get out to good odds. 3rd up, fitter for the 2 runs in and both runs down the straight have been really good – making solid late ground. They were both Group 3 races, has been competitive at Group 1 before with a 4th in the Goodwood. Query is out to the 1400M for the 1st time, and might end up back in the field as is drawn out a bit. But, fit , in form, lightly raced, last start place getter, all things to look for in this race so goes in as best rough chance. Rough.
11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED is only lightly raced and is going along well. 3rd up and fitter for the 2 runs in, though you would probably say was lucky to beat the (12) last start at Flem. Firmer track will suit. Has proven herself in mares and fillies Group 2 company, and competitive over 1600M and further so won’t mind if this is solidly run. Perfect barrier, she can sit just off the speed, lightly raced, fit and in form and at bottom of weights so lot to like about this one. Probably still just prefer the (12) – but all the focus might be on that one, so if there is too much discrepancy in the odds between them then definitely put something on this one. Chance. 2nd W=$14.90
12-RESPONSE is one we have been following this spring and does look to be on the way up. Fitter for the 2 runs in – both of which have been excellent. 1st up, she scooted clear on the inside which was by far the worse going and took some solid efforts to run her down. Last start the jockey just seemed to leave the run too late, she was giving them a hopeless start at the 200M and it was amazing that she even got that close – and she would’ve won in another 10M. Only the 7 starts, plenty of upside and she might be a little untapped. Last 5 runs all been in Group races. Perfect barrier, she can position handy and make her own luck – expect to see her right up just behind the speed today and sure jockey will be keen to make amends for missing out last start. Strong chance. 1st W=$5.00


Place:
7-PINNACLES has become a bit costly to follow, especially after flopping when $3.20 fav at Flem 3 starts back. Didn’t do much last 2 starts, but maybe he is struggling to run out the 1600M and is better off back in distance? Wet track form does look good, and did run 3rd in a Doncaster on a heavy track – however worth nothing that most of his wins have been on dead/good tracks and his heavy track wins were both 1st up over sprint tips – might actually go better back on top of the ground? Drawn out, will drop back, no one is going to pay attention to him today, they will run along here and he will run on – think he is great, wild blow out chance running on for trifectas and first fours so put him in for a place. Place.
10-WOORIM is down from QLD and actually 1st up run wasn’t too bad – ran on well from back in the field and didn’t get much room in running. Won 3 on end before that in QLD so obviously has some ability. Placed 7 from 9 over the 1400M. 2nd up and up 200M and looks like back to the firm track is going to suit. Interestingly it still paid up for the Cox Plate so stable must have some hope for this one. Main problem is a drop back horse, and has drawn barrier 2 in a big field so is going to need a stack of luck to come through the field, else go around all of them. Still, suspect they are going to run along in this and runners on should be suited. Throw in for a rough place chance. 3rd W=$17.60
15-SISTER MADLY is a talented Sydney mare who has drawn nicely in this. 2nd up and up 300M into a tough competitive Group 1. Was kept to being a sprinter last prep with solid placings in Group 1 and Group 2 sprints. Was probably past her best when bought down here for the Thousand Guineas last year. But does look like stable have decided she is a sprinter. Drawn nicely, will sit on the speed, just wonder how she is going to go over a tough, competitive 1400M trip – prefer those running on looking for further. Suspect she is going to look likely at the top of the straight but something is going to run over the top of her. Place best. 4th W=$14.70

Sacking:
2-GOLD SALUTE is a talented horse on his day and stable have been trying to grab him a prized Group 1 for a fair while now. Was favourite in this race last year when was declared a non runner after denied a fair start. Just by comparison to the (1) he had also won the Winter Championship last year, but only by 1L, and from memory was well backed in this to start about $3.50 fav before being declared a non runner. Best form is over the 1400M, handles all conditions, solid runs when unlucky in both the Toorak and Emirates Stakes last year. Fresh form is OK too. Does have a history of playing up at the barriers though. 2nd up and up 400M seems an ask today, going into a tough competitive Group 1. Showed no speed at all 1st up over the 1000M, but seemed to get going again at the very end. Actually prefer to let him run today, can just see him being at the back of this field again and struggling for luck as is often the case. Passing.
3-LA ROCKET has always been a consistent, dry track on pacer, but out did himself when would you believe it he won the St George here at WFA over 1800M in the Autumn. Definitely best on dry tracks – even a little rain would be off putting, so if the track starts to deteriorate pass over this one. 2nd up, but staying at the 1400M, and probably have to forgive poor 1st up run on unsuitable slow ground – especially as stuck to the inside which was the worse going. Tough ride from barrier 1 today – don’t think will have the speed to kick up on the inside and hold them all off in a capacity field, so might have to be ridden off the speed? Best runs are firm dry ground, rolling on the speed and just can’t see that happening today. Passing.
5-JUNGLE RULER seems to keep his best form for the Caulfield 1400M and wet tracks. Can mix his form, but he seems to be back in form again now – led all the way here 2 starts back and solid effort last start at Flem on a track that was favouring runners on when only grabbed in the last 50M. 12 times a winner over the 1400M, and 5 times this track and distance ! Wow. Contested this race last year and didn’t do much – with less weight. Few things against him today – outside barrier means he will have to work to the lead, track which is likely to be firmer than he likes it, and think he struggles in this class. The time to back him (we have worked this out now), is when he rolls to the lead in fields with lots of horses that are 1st or 2nd up, so he runs them along and has race fitness on his side. Passing today.
6-KIDNAPPED was a boom 3YO last spring wining the spring tail end feature 3YO races. Added a Derby to the trophy cabinet over the winter, so probably being set for more staying races this time in (though not entered for any? Maybe the feature miles?). Lightly raced and you would think could pull out a run fresh – but actually his fresh form is a bit ordinary. Prefer race fit ones in tough competitive Group 1 – think it is incredibly hard to win this race 1st up. They will probably run along though so he might finish it off OK. Passing.
8-RAFFAELLO is back with his old trainer again after a stint with the foster parents. Has always had ability, just a bit hard to catch the right day to get on him. 1st up in this, probably a bit more of a stayer these days, a bit older and wiser so might need the run fresh. Last spring he came out and won 1st up over the 1200M and in this he ran on very well to run 3rd and was a little unlucky not to win. That was when he was placed with a different trainer and he normally doesn’t show that much form fresh. Again will be running on from outside barrier, but prefer to pass today.
13-DELAYEDREACTION is an honest Caulfield 1400M-1600M horse who is probably a little out of his depth in this, although did place in the Group 3 Victoria Hcp same track and distance in the Autumn. Placed 4 from 6 Caulfield and 4 from 5 Caulfield 1400M. 3rd up and has done nothing both runs this time in – but they have been on unsuitable wet ground so expect improvement today back on top of the track. Pretty honest and consistent when right and strong finisher who will like the pace on here, just this is a little too tough. No
14-ELECTROMOTIVE is a all or nothing sort of horse – and normally it’s nothing. 2nd up here and up 300M is an ask, but did finish off very well 1st up on unsuitable slow track – doesn’t go through the wet at all. Dry here is a big plus. Drop back type who is suited by outside barrier and fast pace here. Just not sure he is a Group 1 horse – RVL form is telling us 9 Group and Listed runs for one measly third so that doesn’t look very good at all. Likely to be running on strongly – probably for about 5th or 6th. No
16-GATHERING is a tough on pace 2000M type who might need a wet track to be a threat against these. Drawn nicely to roll forward, but there should be plenty of pressure from the outside here. Didn’t do much during the Sydney Autumn – out of interest how does a horse that has form that reads 7095 end up running a $3.30 fav at his next start ? Went pretty well during his spring 3YO season, but just grinds away and don’t think has the brilliance to win this. No
17-WE'RE GONNA ROCK is a lightly raced untapped one who was probably lucky to get into the field. Think stable were planning to give him a few country runs to get his ratings up so he wouldn’t get balloted out of these sort of races. So now that he is in the field sure they will want to grab the chance. Big ungainly type who wants a big track and solid pace. Looked like a world beater in 1st start win at Flem last Dec – but you look back it and was only a field of 5 – over 1000M. Then didn’t even go around the corner when $1.55 favourite and pulled up last at a night meeting at MV (ouch !) – was a very strange placement which came crashing down badly. Won 1st up at Geelong this time in – the synthetic track is pretty tight which probably didn’t suit, but he didn’t slaughter them. Did little down the straight last start when unsuited on wet ground. Stable has massive opinion on him, he is untapped, but really what has he done? Will be suited at bottom of the weights, back on dry track and running on off fast pace, but massively, massively under the odds and probably going to get solid backing. The horses he beat at Geel would be 200-1 in this field – he is going to be closer to 10-1. And just on form without the media or stable push for him he would be 100-1 at least. Might step up, does obviously have ability, but we are going to wait till he shows it. Happy to risk.

Summary: Always a tough competitive field in this Group 1. Interesting to note that only 3 horses in the last 20 years have carried more than 56kgs to win this race – although the limit has probably gone up in that time, but never let the facts get in the way of a good racing statistic. This year might be an exception almost half the field have 57kgs or more.

The other thing to note is that it is last start winners or place getters that normally win this race. Last 10 years – 6 last start winners, 2 last start place getters. Think it is really hard to win this race 1st up, and you need to be in peak form in a tough competitive 1400M Group 1. The Bobbie Lewis has been the form race recently, all of which bodes very well for the 1-DOUBTFUL JACK. Last start winners – the (1), (4), (11), (16), last start place getters the (5), (9), (12), (15), base your trifectas and first fours around these, there is always value in the multiples in this race.

Big field and race is normally run at a fast speed, so this race is often won by horses running on down the middle of the track. Always a lot of hard luck stories and interference in this race as well, so if you are really lucky might be yours that gets put through the fence around the home turn. This year should be no exception – pace should be solid 5-JUNGLE RULER needs to work across from the outside barrier to cross the other leaders 16-GATHERING, 3-LA ROCKET, he tends to go steady in the lead these days – not really burn along. Plenty who can sit handy 1-DOUBTFUL JACK, , 4-RIGHTFULLY YOURS, 12-RESPONSE, 15-SISTER MADLY and the pressure will go on before the turn.

Good chance something will finish on strongly down the middle of the track to win this, but we are going to stick with 12-RESPONSE who seems to be a mare on the up and two runs this time in have both been excellent – she should have won last start. 1-DOUBTFUL JACK is the obviously danger and looks hard to beat, absolutely flying, just be wary how short he starts on the tote though. The value runner here is going to be the 11-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED whose form is just as good as the (12) but suspect might start double the odds. Best rough is 9-BELTROIS and work trifectas and first fours around these and going wide for 3rd and 4th throwing in silly ones like the (7) and the (10) for a bit of zing into your multiples.

One to risk: 17-WE'RE GONNA ROCK 5th W=$9.40
Roughie: 9-BELTROIS

The Key: Need to be in form – winner or last start place getter.

RESULTS : We are spot on in the tricky main race of the day , pushing the Winner ($5), Quinella ($30.90), Trifecta ($575) and even the First Four ($6752). Great ride by Williams on the winner who takes some initiative and scoots to the lead. 1-DOUBTFUL JACK very disappointing away from Flem and onto a dry track - had the perfect run. 10-WOORIM is the one to follow going on, looks like could be a spring contender in the feature mile races. Still think 17-WE'RE GONNA ROCK is vastly over rated, should have started 100-1 on form, solid effort to run 5th though.