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| CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 17th Sept 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SUNNY + FREE - Rail: OUT 10M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Weather is fining up going into the weekend and Saturday is supposed to be pretty sunny with some showers later in the day, which may not affect the racing. Expect this track will firm up and get to a genuine GOOD(3), so try and avoid those who need some give in the ground to show their best. Will be interesting to see how this track races – this being the extra free meeting slotted into the calendar. Normally the Underwood Stakes meeting the rail goes back to the TRUE position, but obviously they are saving that for next week’s Part 2. Rail out 10M is a pretty long way for a semi feature meeting, and they do have capacity fields in most races. Caulfield can often get a bit leaderish on a hard firm track with a drying day, rail is out a long way, big fields, suspect you will want to tend strongly towards those on pace and drawn good barriers – it could be quite difficult to make ground from behind. So just watch out, but you might find it is a plus to be on the speed, those dropping back might struggle to get into the race, and there might be a few hard luck stories of those back in the field in the inside trying to get out. Big fields, and we do seem to have landed on the most obvious picks in most of these races, but be wary of going too narrow today – there are plenty of winning chances in most of the races. Maybe spread win bets around in every race and throw in some value selections. RESULTS : Track races fairly evenly, probably just tends toward on pacers. Early in they day they win down the middle of the track, but once the track starts drying out they kick on the inside, but those making ground can still get into the finish. Pretty ordinary day on the punt though. Luckily it was free entry. BEST BET : Race 8: 9-DECEMBER DRAW 1st W=$1.60 TRIFECTA : Race 8 : 9 / 10, 13 / 1,3,5,7,10,13,16,18(scr) x $7 = 50% TRIFECTA : Race 8 : 9 / 1,3,5,7,10,13,16,18(scr) / 10,13 x $7 = 50% 1st 9-DECEMBER DRAW / 2nd 3-AT FIRST SIGHT W=$9.50 / 3rd 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT W=$11.40 TRI = $47.60 x 0.5 = $23.80 + $1 = $24.80 The shortest priced favourite of the day is going to be 9-DECEMBER DRAW in the Naturalism and really on form he should win and he is looking like the serious cups horse at this stage of the spring. Only beaten once now in 4 starts in Australia, rolls on pace and makes his own luck which is a big plus, is in winning form, fitter for the 2 runs in and has winning form and race fitness over his rivals here so really should win. Just wants to get moving from barrier 1 and get off the rails, and probably is better at Flemington, but hard to see him getting beaten. Not much point in backing horses in the red though so instead let’s try and grab a value trifecta in a big field which should still pay OK. There are two we are quite interested in here. 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT had no luck at all 1st up here at Caulfield and should have won, and then last start at MV completely forget the run – was caught wide all the way and made a hard and very ride run coming to the turn to try to get into the race but was running out of steam. Is one on the way up, will sit on the speed from nice barrier and be in this for a long way. 10-MY BENTLEY is one we have a bit of time for, think he is under rated, really liked the 1st up run in the Makybe Diva when burst through on the rails to hit the lead about 300M out and needs a firm dry track which he gets. Take a trifecta and rotate these two through the placings and we might be looking at a much better collect than a win bet on the favourite. RESULTS : The shortest priced favourite of the day got home. Did look a good thing, but hard to justify taking $1.60 about a horse in a capacity field of handicappers. We land the trifecta with the 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT who is coming along really nicely, but we needed something at odds to lob into the placings to add some value. Measly trifecta. BEST WIN : Race 3: 4-PUMP IT, 11-FAST BUCKS x $4 X Let’s spread win bets over two chances in the 3YO race – and we have found the value winner in the 3YO C+G races the last two meetings. The (4) is fitter for the 2 runs in, and well, we could go on for a few pages about the ride last start at MV – but just head over to bigpond racing and watch it for yourself, saves a lot of time. The (11) should have won last start when ran in behind the winner and lightly raced and might be on the improve here at odds – go back to his 1st MV run for this one and see how incredibly unlucky he was. He might be the trick to this race and is at nice odds at around $10 or better. RESULTS : Both of these get back and run on OK very wide, but were safely held. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-SIMPLY PUT $5 WIN X 5th W=$15.40 QUINELLA : Race 4 : 4-SIMPLY PUT # 1,6,7,10,15 x $2 = $10 X - 1st 7-ZUBBAYA W=$5.90 Very consistent type who is just about always in the finish and will be fitter for the 2 runs in and right at peak today. Placed 3 from 3 this track and distance and firm tracks are her go. There are a few that can go forward here, she normally does race handy, but guess you would want to see her just sitting off the speed and getting a clear run into the race – which is pretty much what she did last start here. Instead of backing each way, let’s try the quinella trick again, which worked a treat last year, but this year we keep running frustrating 3rds. Throw in some value runners in the quinella, mainly focussing around those on pace or well drawn. Solid each way bet though and the $13 currently on offer look good to us. RESULTS : Lobs in a perfect on pace position and the on pacers fight out this race so a little disappointing to only run 5th. Suspect she might just struggle to run out a strong 1400M BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 2-WILANDER $4EW X This one has some ability, but was off the scene for a long, long while due to injury. 1st up run at Flem was excellent, was in the race for the long way behind some smart ones, and only faded over the last 100M or so. 2nd up at MV it was the day it was a dynamite leaders track where all the winners came along the rails, he was caught wide and wider all the way and just totally forget this run. Inside barrier here, can jump and run and lead and probably not that much that is going to take him on in this. Taking on trust a bit coming off a bad run, but seriously like $17 currently on offer with TAB fixed odds against a field that isn’t that strong. RESULTS : Jumps to the lead like we wanted, but was struggling around the home turn and dropped out to last, so obviously something not right. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2 :8-PANIPIQUE at around $4.00 1st W=$3.20 Asking for trouble taking on a Moody runner, we know, but despite having a bit of ability this one has had two runs in and both have been on the ordinary side. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and probably not much in the way of competition today will have us a little nervous (especially considering how often these are winning), but just not quite sure of how well she is going and prefer to let her run today. Suspect she will start favourite on the tote in this due to the money from the Moody cheer squad and think represents poor value. Risking. RESULTS : Oh dear - there goes another one. We were asking for trouble - and we got trouble. That's 4 Lay of the Days getting up in 6 weeks which is beyond embarrassing. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP PLACE BET Race 4: 4-SIMPLY PUT X 5th W=$15.40 Race 7: 7-GLASS HARMONIUM X 4th W=$5.80 Race 8: 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 3rd W=$11.40 Race 9: 15-ANABAA’S LEGACY X x $5 =$5 OK so this seemed to work just fine last week, so we might as well try the same formula. All Up Place bet on 4 horses, so the dividends from one race go into the next and we need all 4 of them to run a place to collect. Going to be a bit tougher this week with much bigger fields – but also looking at a bigger collect. Again let’s go with race fit on pace horses with possible on pace bias. Good luck ! RESULTS : The first few all get great runs on the speed, but not good enough to get into the finish. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $24.80 NET : $-25.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 5-OAMARU ROSE, 8-EASTWARD, 7-PLATELET Race 2: 2-WILANDER, 3-BUDRIGUEZ, 1-GRAND DUELS Race 3: 4-PUMP IT, 11-FAST BUCKS, 8-SALTER Race 4: 4-SIMPLY PUT, 7-ZUBBAYA, 15-HI BELLE Race 5: 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE, 17-UTAH SAINTS (emerg), 11-BERRINGAMA, 12-ROCKPECKER Race 6: 8-HALLOWELL BELLE, 4-CELEBRITY GIRL, 15-CLASSIC ELLE (emerg), 13-CRUCIAL Race 7: 7-GLASS HARMONIUM, 3-HEART OF DREAMS, 9-PLAYING GOD Race 8: 9-DECEMBER DRAW, 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT, 10-MY BENTLEY Race 9: 15-ANABAA’S LEGACY, 7-VALENTINE MISS, 12-MISS OCTOPUSSY, |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-OAMARU ROSE 8-EASTWARD 7-PLATELET 3rd W=$9.50 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-WILANDER 3-BUDRIGUEZ SCR 1-GRAND DUELS 3rd W=$13.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-PUMP IT 11-FAST BUCKS 8-SALTER 2nd W=$8.40 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SIMPLY PUT 7-ZUBBAYA 1st W=$5.90 15-HI BELLE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE 3rd W=$2.40 17-UTAH SAINTS 1st W=$5.50 11-BERRINGAMA |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-HALLOWELL BELLE 2nd W=$2.70 4-CELEBRITY GIRL 15-CLASSIC ELLE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-GLASS HARMONIUM 3-HEART OF DREAMS 9-PLAYING GOD |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DECEMBER DRAW 1st W=$1.60 13-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 3rd W=$11.40 10-MY BENTLEY |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-ANABAA’S LEGACY 7-VALENTINE MISS 2nd W=$8.60 12-MISS OCTOPUSSY |
| RACE 7: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800M WFA |
| Tips: 7-GLASS HARMONIUM 3-HEART OF DREAMS 9-PLAYING GOD |
| Others: 14, 5, 6, 15 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 7-GLASS HARMONIUM Handy : 3-HEART OF DREAMS (wide), 5-MIDAS TOUCH, 8-LION TAMER, 12-BRAZILIAN PULSE, 14-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 2-MASTER O'REILLY, 4-MALUCKYDAY, 6-PRECEDENCE, 9-PLAYING GOD , 10-RIGHT OF REFUSAL, 11-SHAMROCKER, 13-SCARLETT LADY, 15-SOUTHERN SPEED Chances: 3-HEART OF DREAMS is as honest as they come, and a dry track, Caulfield, WFA, and distances less than 2000M are his bread and butter. Placed an impressive 10 from 12 starts here at Caulfield, and placed 3 from 4 this track and distance, including two wins. Won the St George Stakes this track and distance here in the Autumn when a short priced favourite, 7th in this race last year when his spring campaign ended so probably had something go wrong, 2nd in the St George in 2010 when a beaten short priced favourite and won this race in 2009. Normally he takes two runs to find his best each time in and a lot was made of his poor fresh form 1st up when he started in the Memsie, but he put in a really solid run and fought the race out all the way down the straight against one that is looking like the spring star this year. Normally though he has had 2 runs in going into the Caulfield 1800M races, except the year he was a beaten short priced favourite in the St George, so maybe only niggling question is coming into this race 2nd up this time in. Drawn out, but you would think they would go forward in a field with not much speed, and good chance the track will favour on pacers. However, there is a chance he might get caught out wide. Sure to be in the finish as always, just got a niggling feeling he probably finds one better here, so maybe prefer the place – but almost certain to be thereabouts. Chance, but probably prefer place. 5-MIDAS TOUCH is one of the Williams international runners who seems to be running into form, but these ones have been a bit of a dubious betting proposition over the last couple of years and mixed their form a fair bit. Fitter for the 2 runs in, nice run last start when lobbed right on the speed, with cover and fought the race out nicely to the line. Inside barrier here is a big plus, can go forward again, good chance the on pacers will be suited, the extra distance should suit so should be right in the finish here. Fought on pretty well last start, but more in a sloggy finish way rather than a finishing burst, so maybe just wonder if he has the brilliance for a sit and sprint WFA race? Would probably prefer a solid tempo and tough staying test. Guess just want to see him once more and see he can hold his form, and you would think probably more of a Flemington horse, but is a genuine winning chance based on last run. Chance. 3rd W=$10.30 7-GLASS HARMONIUM is an import who did everything right during the QLD winter carnival, held his form and was genuinely competitive in every start. Huge plus with this one is that he races handy, so he goes forward and lobs on the speed and makes his own luck. 1st up run in the Makybe Diva was excellent and has put the writing on the wall that he is going to be a major player this spring. Worth noting he was well supported there too. It was quite windy that day at Flemington, most of the winners had cover or came from the tail of the field, and this one was caught 3 wide into the breeze and still fought it out the length of the straight – even holding off the (9) who loomed like he was going to go straight past him. Think that was a super effort and stamped him as one to follow this spring. Should go forward here again, won’t be that much pressure up front and looks the one to beat for us. One to beat. 4th W=$5.80 9-PLAYING GOD is another we think is going to be a major player this spring and his runs at Flemington in the Autumn in the Australian Cup and Australian Guineas were excellent. Big loping type, who needs to drop back, stretch out and run on down the middle of the track, and is definitely heading for better things this spring. Loomed up like he was going to be the winner last start in the Makybe Diva, but just seemed to die on his run 2nd up. Like that he has had the 2 runs in and most of his rivals are 2nd up into this. Drawn out, he probably drops well back here, so you would want to watch the early races and make sure they can run on OK if you want to back him with any confidence. They don’t normally go that hard in these sort of races, he is going to drop well back, and he screams that he is a Flemington horse so he might have a few things against him here today. But hard , firm dry track will suit and he is one on the up so is a strong chance in this. Strong chance. 14-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN is at the cross roads today and it will be fascinating to see what she can pull out here. If you scroll back to the Liston Stakes form guide we gave her a bit of a canning, these 3YO fillies so rarely go on, she does have a bit of ability and it was a fairly week field, but still – to be backed into favouritism against WHOBEGOTYOU, when she had never won or competed against that class of race was pure insanity. On paper, she totally looked to have the Makybe Diva at her mercy 2nd up, but we really could not have her again at those sort of odds - $1.85 favourite. From memory when MISS FINLAND was actually winning these sort of races you could still get better odds than that about her. Obviously some AAA rated US investment firm has wisely decided she is the answer to get them out of their subprime hole. Anyway back to the form guide. 1st up she was held up for a while in the pack and came on well when clear, but was never going to win even with a clear run. 2nd up was expected she would lob on the speed in a slowly run race and have the race at her mercy – she did the 1st bit, but really didn’t find much at the end of the race. She was thereabouts, so run was acceptable, but obviously disappointing. Guess she was only beaten 2 L and that was her 2nd up run, so her form is still pretty good. Fitter for the 2 runs in, has a few gear changes today and will lob right on the speed from a good barrier so again she should put herself into the race. Definitely a winning chance, interesting to see if punters give her once more chance on the tote – suspect they will so will start under the odds. Our guess is $2.50 or under on the tote. She will be thereabouts again, we suspect she is not going to measure up though – but have to give her a chance. Chance. Place: 6-PRECEDENCE is a stayer of Bart’s who best form is on dry tracks and ran on pretty well 1st up in the Memsie Stakes. Can still do a few things wrong in his races, but has always shown a fair bit of ability. Did run 2nd here in the St George in the Autumn 2nd up, behind the (3), and not beaten far in the Australian Cup so he is probably not hopeless here. Note that he does have blinkers again and seem to remember stable do think he would be a much better horse with them, but he from memory he did over race wearing them last time they were tried ? Extra distance will suit, can sit off them and run on late, maybe not a wining chance but shouldn’t be far off the placings, and 1st up run was encouraging. Place. 8-LION TAMER is the Derby winner who has had the full year off back home in NZ and went along OK 1st up over the 1400M there. 2nd up and out to 1800M here, drawn well, he can race handy if required and should get a pretty good run here. Just always a bit hard to guess how these classic winning 3YOs are going to go on in their 4YO season against open company. The question mark with this one is if he needs some rain about to really be at his top?, he does look like his best runs in Australia has been on rain affected tracks. Track should come up pretty firm here, he has a bit of ability though so maybe keep an eye on the betting market to see if he gets any support. Rough. 1st W=$13.50 15-SOUTHERN SPEED is another 3YO filly who showed a fair bit of form during the Autumn, but again just have to wait and see if she measures up in her 4YO season. Has an exciting finish on her, but does drop back and means she needs the breaks to go her way. Best taken to the outside to run on in a fast run race – but is that how this race is going to be run ? Fitter for the 3 runs in this spring, 1st two were very ordinary, but glimmer of hope with last start 4th when she was making good ground at the end of the race behind 3 very smart ones and wasn’t beaten that far. Drawn out, will drop back, likes the firm track, about to run into form – as long as they are running on OK she represents a good value place chance in this and maybe even a rough wining chance. Rough 2nd W=$28.90 Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the former Melbourne Cup winner resuming from a 2 year break to write his best selling memoirs. Tended to mix his form last couple of campaigns when racing and stable never seems to have their runners primed to go 1st up, they all seemed focussed on Lloyd’s Melbourne Cup obsession/addiction. No fresh form as such, best form has always been at Flemington and you suspect they will be taking him easy going into this and not wanting to test him too much. No 2-MASTER O'REILLY is doing a fantastic job in racking up numbers of starts without a win since the 2007 Caulfield Cup and is pretty confident of clocking up number 28 today. Dry track suits, definitely needs it firm to show best, and has put in a big run or two at WFA over the years, but normally it is just a flashy 3rd or 4th, and most of those performances have been at Flemington. Did nothing last spring and given a full year off to rest his ageing bones. Sent back to original trainer in the bush too. Failed to give a yelp 1st up, and they could run on OK that day so hard to get enthused about his chances here. No 4-MALUCKYDAY is one we are a bit dubious about, though there seems to be plenty who are still willing to push him. He was an absolute sensation last spring when on an upward spiral and won a tough hard run Lexus, before outstanding effort to beat all but the international in an equally tough Melbourne Cup. Really looked like being the outstanding stayer in the country at that stage and actually expected he would come back in the Autumn and be a top notch WFA horse. Apart from his 1st up run in the Autumn, when he ran on really well, he struggled when well supported in his next 2 runs and really did very little. Dry track definitely suits today. Really didn’t give much of a yelp 1st up in Sydney and hard to get a gauge on how he is really going. Likely to drop back here, and think we have to avoid him till he shows some genuine form again. No SCR 10-RIGHT OF REFUSAL is another staying 3YO going into his 4YO season and he only won the B grade 3YO races so can’t get too enthused about him. Actually wasn’t beaten very far at all 1st up here, but it was a blanket finish that day with about 10 across the track so not sure about the form. WFA is going to be the question mark here, drops well back and unlikely to be a factor in this. No 11-SHAMROCKER is one to keep an eye on this spring, not often you get 3YO classic winning fillies who have beaten the males on multiple occasions. So many 3YO F just don’t go on in their 4YO season, but the ones who do often have form against the males. Firm, dry track is a big plus for her, but she is definitely a big track horse and has Flemington stamped all over her (which is not the dodgy night club stamp on her wrist from last night). 1st up effort was OK, without being that attention grabbing, but worth noting she did win the Australian Guineas 2nd up last Autumn. Happy to leave her out today, but suspect she will run on pretty well, but maybe just prefer one more run and to wait till she gets back to Flemington till we get on. Passing. 12-BRAZILIAN PULSE was the dominant 3YO filly of the spring, but these ones so often don’t go on and there is a long list of flops for these types in these sorts of races. 3YO spring season was outstanding, tough gritty on pace wins and she was a class above her rivals. Just faltered a little during the Autumn in Sydney, but was still very competitive. 2 runs this time in though have been super ordinary so obviously there is a very big question mark over her going on this spring and if she is going to come up ? She has had excuses though, 1st up she hit the side of the barriers when jumping away, and 2nd up she did go forward and drop out very quickly so you do have to wonder if there is some underlying problem there. She has drawn well and will race handy so will get a pretty good run here, but you just can’t have her on form. If she was to suddenly find some form she would probably be a rough place chance, so maybe if you want a monster trifecta or first four collect throw her in towards the tail end and embark on some ambitious box ticking, but other than that no much interest. No 13-SCARLETT LADY is a highly rated NZ visitor who was the dominant 3YO filly during the QLD winter. Went unbeaten last campaign, 6 wins on end, rising in class each time which is a huge performance. Went OK 1st up to be thereabouts in what did seem to be a very strong race on paper – most of the horses competing in that NZ race had been competitive over here at some stage. She does drop well back in her races, and again that is the question, drawn well so would be good to see her race midfield or better, but just so hard to be giving good horses a start in these sort of races. Have to watch the market, suspect she will get a fair bit of support, but just prefer to see these 3YOF going around in open class in the 4YO year before getting too excited, just cause their record over the last 5 years or so really is pretty ordinary. Prefer to watch. Summary: Normal WFA race for this time of the year, lots of these just having warm up runs, most of the field drops back, and it is always a big , big positive for those who can race on the speed in these races. Burning question, as it is every year, is how the 3YOs are going to measure up in their 4YO season, particularly the 4YO mares who have had a very poor record in recent years (see Liston Stakes form guide for more information). Field of 15, and don’t think there is much between many of these, so don’t be surprised if we get a value winner in this. Don’t go too narrow in the quaddie, there is a real chance of a collect here in a very even field. Pace as is often the case in these WFA races is pretty slow. 7-GLASS HARMONIUM looks the obviously leader and should be in this race for very long way, probably 14-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN sitting just off him, and 3-HEART OF DREAMS (wide) with 5-MIDAS TOUCH, 8-LION TAMER, 12-BRAZILIAN PULSE the next in line. Doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front though, and with the rail OUT 10M that doesn’t leave much room in a field of 15 horses to make their runs, so a bit dubious about those that are going to drop back here. Pretty keen on 7-GLASS HARMONIUM here, really looks the safest way in a wide open field, lobbing on the speed, 1st up run was excellent when caught wide and looks the one to beat for us. Have to respect the super consistent 3-HEART OF DREAMS, just needs to get across from the outside barrier OK, but he is proven in these sort of races – and most of these are not. 9-PLAYING GOD should have plenty of improvement from last start and if this race was at Flemington would probably rate him on top – just a question of if they can run on OK ? But plenty of chances and don’t fall into the trap of going too narrow in this. Got a sneaky feeling that 15-SOUTHERN SPEED might do something here for those wanting a value runner. Tricky race and probably best to spread win bets out over a few of them. One to risk: 4-MALUCKYDAY SCR Roughie: 15-SOUTHERN SPEED 2nd W=$28.90 The Key: Will the 4YO mares measure up this year or not ? RESULTS : Very topsy-turvy WFA form this year. 8-LION TAMER, 2nd up and coming off a trans tasman trip steps up and does look like the NZ form is going to be very, very strong this year. Huge run from our roughie 15-SOUTHERN SPEED 2nd W=$28.90, who was a little unlucky as she was flushed out and had to make a run very early and kicked clear early in the straight. 5-MIDAS TOUCH lobs on speed and sticks on really well again - seems to be very one paced, but big track and some distance and he is going to be right in some big races this year. 14-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN flops again which really wasn't a surprise. 9-PLAYING GOD looms up like he is going to win again - and just doesn't finish it off. Ready to drop off him now as he has done that quite a few times. |
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