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| CAULFIELD: UNDERWOOD STAKES - 22nd Sept 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Just a few showers heading into the weekend for Caulfield, but then looks like it is going to clear up and should be bright and sunny for chasing the kids around the lawns at Caulfield on family free day. Track should the better side of DEAD with chance of an upgrade and just be wary if it is a bright sunny day and the track dries quickly as often the inside tends to dry out quicker and favour those racing on the speed. Last meeting here the rail was OUT 6M and on a drying day the on pacers did win most of the races, they could run on OK, but backmarkers only really figured in a few races where they went really fast. Just be a little wary of the racing pattern here and watch the first few races closely – putting out a warning that we might get a distinct racing pattern this week. Normally the Rupert Clarke Stakes is run on rail TRUE as a feature meeting, but with the meeting split this year , this week the rail is OUT 9M and they will probably go back to TRUE next week. Big fields, rail well out, suspect barriers and on pacers are going to be really important and it might be hard for the backmarkers to get into the finish. That’s the theory anyways – wait and see. Really tough program here with some big even fields and happy to spread win bets around on a few runners in each race as a betting strategy or back a few each way at odds. There are a few lightly raced, heavily hyped short odds horses going around today, mainly Race 2: 5-COMMITTED and Race 6: 8-COMMANDING JEWEL, but they are going into much more competitive races, against lots of up and comers coming through maidens who can suddenly improve, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them get beaten. Managed to find quite a few value runners in the selections and happy to run with small bets on these. An each way bet on the top pick in each race should keep things ticking over for the day. Even though we are sinking fast in the betting portfolio this spring let’s double up this week cause think there will be some nice quinellas as well. RESULTS: Track plays pretty evenly, though the leaders do stick on pretty well in most races even though they come off the rails. The tips and the betting portfolio continue to struggle. How long is it to the Sandown Classic again and the end of spring ? BEST BET: Race 7: 1-MANIGHAR $15 WIN X DAILY DOUBLE : Races 7,9 : 1 / 6,10,12,14(scr) x $2.50 = $10 SCR $2.50 The favourite should be really hard to beat in the Underwood Stakes. Came home with a flying burst 1st up after being held up for a considerable distance and actually looked like he had got there on the line. Whilst fresh he has a pretty decent finishing sprint and should be able to beat these. Main question is how short he is going to start, probably around $2.50, though would prefer $2.70 to $3.00. So back him straight out and try to get some more value for money with a Daily Double into Race 9 which is a wide open affair. In that race, the (12) is going along well and is going to get a perfect on pace sit from the barrier, the (6) has a heap of ability when right, the (10) has really strong form lines in Adel – should lead, just concerned may be taken on now the (17) is in the field, and the (14) might be an upset chance at odds. RESULTS: 1-MANGIHAR gets extremely well back into what was probably pretty silly odds - starting a ludicrous $1.90 on the tote when they jumped. Ouch. That is a bit silly. Loomed like he was going to go bang around the 200M but just ran out of puff. Slightly disappointing, but still think the run was pretty good and he will be around the money this spring. Just not at $1.90 again hopefully. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 14-LIVIGNO, 11-INSTINCTION $5 EW X QUINELLA : Race 5 : 4,6,9,11,14 x $1 boxed = $10 1st 9-VEEWAP W=$5.80, 2nd 4-TESTASCANA W=$15.00 Quinella = $35.60 Think there are two great each way chances at over $10 in this race. The (14) is fitter for the 3 runs in and is a lightly raced one showing a bit of ability. Not disgraced down the straight last start in a very strong race, maybe just want to go forward from outside barrier here, but is always competitive. The (11) we have backed before and happy to give another chance to, should go forward here and often wins at odds. 1st up went to run into the race and just floundered on the heavy going, 2nd up went to run into it on the inside of the straight and they hit a breeze that was like a brick wall whilst those with cover out wide fought out the finish. Good chance both of these are going to figure in the finish and happy to back both at odds. Throw in a box quinella as well. RESULTS: The each way bets never figure, but get back something on the quinella with 9-VEEWAP living up to his lead up runs this time in and finally saluting the judge. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 12-STREETS AWAY $7.50EW X QUINELLA : Race 8 : 4,7,10,12,13 x $1 boxed = $10 3rd 10-EXCEPTIONALLY W=$13.70 Very big even Naturalism Stakes as always and suspect this one is going to get forgotten and get out to good odds on the tote. The trick to this race is that most of the field are still early in their preparations and stepping up in distance, or drop well back in the run. Doesn’t look like there is all that much speed here and this one is race fit, in form and should make his own luck on the speed whilst some of the bigger names are still searching for runs back in the field. Quite like the run here last start – raced on speed and they went very fast up front that day, still kicked to the lead about 200M out but was swamped on the line by the swoopers, but did well to hold on for 3rd. Strong 2000M might be a slight query but suspect is going to be right in the finish at the business end of the race. Currently around $12, but suspect will get out to much better odds on the tote on the day with support for some more high profile runners. Again big fields, so throw in a box quinella and hope for a value collect. RESULTS: Gets a decent run on the speed, but is a beaten horse on the turn. Does look to struggle at the distance. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-PROPER MADAM $4 EW X QUINELLA: Race 6: 9-PROPER MADAM, 6-BLOOMINGDALE MISS x $3 X QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-BLOOMINGDALE MISS # 2,5,8,13 x $1 = $4 X / 2nd 8-COMMANDING JEWEL 2nd W=$3.40 Think this one is worth a shot at odds in the Guineas Prelude. Nice win here a few starts back, got lost up in Sydney and was finishing on really well down the straight against most of these last start. Extra distance is going to suit, and out to the 1400M today as a strong finisher in a race where suspect someone of these are not going to run the trip. Currently around $15 and worth something each way. The main danger here is the (6) who is the only one with 1400M form in this field, likely to get good run on the speed and save with her in the quinellas. Value here if the short priced favourite the (8) doesn’t live up to expectations and quite a few of these were promising runs through the Flemington race. RESULTS: Both are disappointing and never a factor. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-PLANET VOYAGE at around $5 3rd W=$3.50 This is a very even 1000M scamper with lots of form lines and just suspect this one is going to start favourite and just wonder if he is a wet tracker. Been consistent over winter, coming off a break, but drawn barrier 1 and few here are going to cross and burn to the lead and think he will need some luck to get clear. Good chance something coming off a maiden will suddenly improve so happy to risk this one today. RESULTS: Things were looking a little dicey when in the morning when there were a whopping 5 scratchings. Jumped and led on inside but just worn down by one at the end. Close call. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 14-BONARIA $2.50 EW SCR $5 If you are looking for a get out in the last, might as well have something each way on this one at around $26. She has been racing really well, two Caulfield wins on wet tracks were impressive, then finished on well when got too far back on a leader’s track here two starts back. Last start at Flem she pulled out wide and early in the straight into that ferocious head win and really fought on very well to the line. Back in distance and the inside barrier is going to make it tricky as she drops back, but she is can get a run through the field she is worth a shot at odds. RESULT: RETURN SPENT: $100 RETURN: $43.10 NET: $-56.90 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-CHIVVY, 1-SHOPAHOLIC, 9-TRANQUERA Race 2: 8-HVASSTAN, 1-ESCADO, 13-SULLEN ART Race 3: 5-MAURY, 6-CRYSTAL WEB, 12-FORMIDABLE Race 4: 2-KULGRINDA, 1-CANALI, 8-HOT SPIN Race 5: 14-LIVIGNO, 11-INSTINCTION, 9-VEEWAP Race 6: 9-PROPER MADAM, 6-BLOOMINGDALE MISS, 13-SPITFIRE LADY Race 7: 1-MANIGHAR, 11-ILLO, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED Race 8: 12-STREETS AWAY, 10-EXCEPTIONALLY, 4-SHEWAN Race 9: 12-TOTAL ATTRACTION, 6-SOFT SAND, 14-BONARIA |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-CHIVVY 1-SHOPAHOLIC 3rd W=$3.00 9-TRANQUERA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-HVASSTAN 1st W=$4.20 1-ESCADO 13-SULLEN ART |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MAURY 6-CRYSTAL WEB 12-FORMIDABLE SCR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-KULGRINDA 2nd W=$2.90 1-CANALI 3rd W=$12.20 8-HOT SPIN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-LIVIGNO 11-INSTINCTION 9-VEEWAP 1st W=$5.80 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-PROPER MADAM 6-BLOOMINGDALE MISS 13-SPITFIRE LADY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MANIGHAR 11-ILLO 14-SOUTHERN SPEED |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-STREETS AWAY 10-EXCEPTIONALLY 3rd W=$13.70 4-SHEWAN |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-TOTAL ATTRACTION 6-SOFT SAND 14-BONARIA SCR |
| RACE 7: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800m WFA |
| Tips: 1-MANIGHAR 11-ILLO 14-SOUTHERN SPEED |
| Others: 13, 3 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 4-VOILA ICI Handy : 7-DRUNKEN SAILOR, 8-DECEMBER DRAW, 9-MAWINGO, 11-ILLO Back : 1-MANIGHAR, 2-WINCHESTER, 3-SINCERO, 5-MALUCKYDAY, 6-NIWOT, 10-SANAGAS, 12-ZABEELIONAIRE, 13-OCEAN PARK Chances: 1-MANIGHAR is one we have a huge opinion of, and as we said last time we just cannot believe the extreme makeover he has been through. We had great fun potting him as a plodding, one paced stayer in the last few Cups, he always loomed like he was going to be a threat and then just ground away for a 4th to 6th. Extremely one paced. So when he came out 1st up at Caulfield in Feb and went whoosh we really had to pinch ourselves and give a few hefty slaps around the face to bring us back to reality. Huge Autumn campaign and a totally different horse trained in Australia. Hopelessly unlucky 1st up this spring in the Makybe Diva, got lots of cover back in the field, but was held up for a run for ages and when he got clear he flew home and looked like he had won. Somehow, somehow, 14-SOUTHERN SPEED just happened to push her head down hard on the line – even her jockey thought she had been beaten. We are pretty sure 1-MANIGHAR has his eyes shut in the photo and they should have deleted it and taken it again. Anyway. Should have won 1st up, drawn a nice outside barrier here to race in space and run into the race here and definitely the one to beat. Guess the only question mark may be if they are running on OK and if there is any speed – really doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all. But if he repeats his first up run from the Autumn he really should win this. One to beat. 3-SINCERO is coming off a sensational sit and sprint win here in the Memsie a few weeks ago. Heap of ability and has a pretty impressive win strike rate. Didn’t really do much in Melbourne last spring, but has been set for Melbourne races this year and that makes a huge difference. Drawn out and probably drops back here. Didn’t really fire in Melbourne last spring over these sort of distances , but likely he wasn’t at his best. Distance is probably the question mark, having not really figured in his runs past 1600M. Worth noting that HAPPY TRAILS won last week so the form lines look strong. Just strikes us more of a sit, sprint type, and they should go along fairly slowly here, suspect if one of the overseas horses took off and made it a solidly run race he might come unstuck. Has to be around the finish based on last run, think this field is a fair bit tougher though and just get the feeling he was primed to go 1st up. Chance. 11-ILLO is … wait, wait .. it is actually less work to say which ones are local than comment on all the imports come locals. Has had two preparations in Australia now so should feel right at home and can put his feet up on the good table Nikolic style and make himself comfy. First Australian preparation was pretty good, liked the run in the MV Cup when he at least raced handy and put himself into the race. Then given no chance in Melbourne Cup when jockey seemed to think he was riding MIGHT AND POWER again as he burnt them along in the lead. 1st up and 2nd up in the Autumn he put in some good runs here before struggling for the rest of his campaign. 1st up run this Spring wasn’t much but had a very big weight, and happy to give him another chance today. OK barrier and can race handy if required and that is the big plus here. Like that he has form over the Caulfield 1800M against this lot. Think if there is to be a boil over he is most likely and worth a rough chance in this. Rough. 13-OCEAN PARK is a handy NZ visitor who we will call local so it evens up the numbers a bit. Impressive record over in NZ then struck a wet track at first Australian start which spoilt his record. Did drop well back in two Australian runs, have to admit not sure if that is his normal racing pattern or not. Very impressive win /place strike rate, looks to have a load of untapped potential and race fit and in winning form unlike so many of these. Draw a nice barrier so guess would be nice to be positioned mid field rather than out the back. Almost certain to get some support so watch the market. Chance. 1st W=$6.30 14-SOUTHERN SPEED is one of the few proudly flying the Australian flag – literally – all over her silks. Tough mare who has been one of the most consistent horses in Australia at the top level over the last year. Just seemed a little dour last spring, but competitive every start during the Autumn at this level and has the big bonus here of 3 runs in against those 1st or 2nd up – so one run ahead of most of these. Race fitness and form on her side. Caulfield record is good, but the 1-MANIGHAR normally has her measure and she was probably lucky to beat him home last start when jockey took the initiative , rode her more forward and pinched a break on them. Certain to be thereabouts, hard to see her beating the (1) though. Chance. 4th W=$8.00 Place: 4-VOILA ICI is another import who went OK 1st up in the Memsie, showing a bit of speed early before running out of puff. Should have a lot of improvement coming off that run and these imports so often improve quickly at odds when stepped up in distance. Just so hard to tell when that improvement is going to happen. Not much speed here and you would think he might go forward again here and likely to stick on OK. Watch the racing pattern advice on the day. Likely to improve and should be thereabouts, too early to get enthused though about carrying our money so prefer place. Place. 2nd W=$41.20 7-DRUNKEN SAILOR is another import come local who didn’t really fire in his two Cup campaigns when trained overseas. Showed a bit in his first Australian trained campaign, competitive in staying handicaps but really not flying all that high, although guess he wasn’t very far behind these in the BMW in the Autumn. Put in an OK run with a big weight 1st up last time in over this track and distance which is a promising sign. Does seem a bit one paced though, needs speed on and needs distance. Inside barrier, can probably race a bit closer to the speed here than most of these and inside might be the best going. Really you are just guessing with the majority of these so if you want to throw one at 50-1 in to your trifectas might as well be this one. Rough place. 8-DECEMBER DRAW was one of the stars of last spring and showed a real WFA turn of foot. His wins were impressive, as he really knuckled down and chased hard a few times. Got badly injured when a short priced favourite in last year’s Caulfield Cup and has spent the last year lazing on the couch watching daytimes soaps recuperating. Firmer track suits. Was reported to be working very well coming into his 1st up run which was OK – he settled and was competitive and just lacked race fitness when asked to go. Question is how quickly can he get back to the top ? Drawn out, but likely to settle a lot handier than most of these and has a better sprint than most of these. You would think he will probably improve a fair bit today, probably be thereabouts but not quite at his top, and then you can back him next start. Place.3rd W=$18.20 Sacking: 2-WINCHESTER is an imported product, and as always these ones are just about impossible to line up. Most normally take a run or two and go a bit ordinary, and then one day suddenly spring into form at odds – but its nigh on impossible to work out when that is going to be. He is an 8YO, he has had close to a year off so prefer to let run. No 5-MALUCKYDAY is one of the few decent local stayers we have, trying to get back into it after a long injury lay off. Absolutely sensational spring in 2010 and looked to be the next star in Australian racing, but didn’t go on with it in the Autumn and has struggled with aches and pains ever since. Long lay- off and promising run 1st up when made a little ground, but you would think they would be taking him along pretty slowly and he will probably need a few runs. Inside barrier, will drop back, needs speed on to show his best and that is unlikely. Passing. 6-NIWOT is a capable handicap stayer doing his warm up runs for targets later in the spring. Didn’t show much 1st up. Drawn out here and likely to drop well back, normally take a few runs to strike form and really need 2000M and big tracks. Later. 9-MAWINGO was a major flop 1st up when he did race back in the field getting plenty of cover from a strong head wind, was pulled out rather early and wide and into the breeze but really made no ground at any stage. Blinkers go off – so maybe he couldn’t see he was supposed to be competitive ? Another import who showed a fair bit during Autumn in his first Australian campaign, but he looks more like a 2000/2400M horse than some of these dead set stayers. Had won two trials leading into the 1st up run so really should have been pretty forward. Drawn a nice barrier and he can race handy if required. Almost certainly improves today, but extremely difficult to back with any confidence coming off a flop and have to let run today. No 10-SANAGAS is another import, this one trained by Bart who has decided that if you can’t beat them – then buy them. No support 1st up and didn’t show much. Lightly raced so you would think still has a bit to come and capable of improving rapidly if any good. Drawn inside, and likely to be at the back of a dawdling field on the turn, so would need an awful lot of luck to figure. Really can’t do much with these till they suddenly improve one day at 50-1 and squash your trifecta. Passing. 12-ZABEELIONAIRE is a 3YO classic winner going into his 4YO season and it is always very hit and miss as to which of these go on – if you don’t believe us check out INDUNA’s form. Firm track suits, back marker who needs the speed on which is unlikely here. Not much in the way of support 1st up and didn’t show much, so really have to wait to he shows some form to see how he is going to measure up now he is against the oldies. Passing. Summary: It is a bit funny doing the form for these WFA races at the moment, it is just import after import after import. Can also make it a little tricky to bet with any confidence – so often these imports can very suddenly improve off poor runs as they step up in distance and you can’t really tell when it is going to happen. Pace here should be slow to even, there isn’t much speed to speak of but one or two of the imports/locals should roll along and just depends how fast they want to go. 4-VOILA ICI most likely leader based on his last run and 7-DRUNKEN SAILOR, 11-ILLO should settle handy. This field is stacked with drop back run on types so think it might be important to be up near the speed here, or at very least have that WFA turn of foot that can quickly put you into a race. On form, 1-MANIGHAR really should win this and think he is going to be a very major player this spring. Competitive in everything in the Autumn, huge run 1st up when flying home and should have won and he has a really nice turn of foot when fresh. Might even go better at Caulfield based on his dazzling 1st up win here in the Autumn. Should win – probably would just want odds a bit closer to $3 though. Might go for a roughie for 2nd, just think 11-ILLO might put in a run here, can race on speed (hopefully-someone have a word to Bart), not much pressure up front, drawn to go forward, inside of the track might be better and he mixed it with these in his 1st few runs in the Autumn, capable of improving off his 1st up run this time in – so the $60 really looks way over the odds for a horse proven against this class. Might have a nibble – just taking on trust cause can’t really get overly enthused about his 1st up run. 14-SOUTHERN SPEED the obvious other danger, big plus of having a few runs in on these, just hard to see her beating home the (1) from last start. Solid chances to the 3-SINCERO , 13-OCEAN PARK who will be sure to have their supporters. Not overly keen to bet, depends what odds the (1) comes up, else just a play bet on the (11) at odds. One to risk: 9-MAWINGO Roughie: 11-ILLO The Key: Sit, sprint, handy, turn of foot. RESULTS: 1-MANIGHAR gets into an incredibly silly $1.90 on the tote, looms up like the winner but just fails to finish it off. May have just needed that run as well. Impressive win by the NZer 13-OCEAN PARK, but really like the place getters. 4-VOILA ICI led and kicked and looked to almost pinch the race and plenty to improvement to come over further distances. 8-DECEMBER DRAW right back into form now after injury and definitely back him next start. |
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