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| CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 20th Sept 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Few showers around going into the weekend but this track should stay pretty firm and it is noticeable that they seem to be happy to run with GOOD(3) tracks this spring, whereas previously we would get them watered to be a DEAD(4) leading into race day. We have had quite a few GOOD tracks in the last few months which is quite unusual. Rail is OUT 9M, last meeting here it was OUT 6M, and the racing pattern was pretty even, though the on pacers did seem to feature in most races. Rail out, dry track suspect on pace is where you will want to be and keep an eye out for a distinctive racing pattern today. Even though there are quite firm favourites in most of these races, and we have picked some of them, think there is a bit of depth and evenness to these fields, so sure to be plenty of double figure winners if you can spot them. As usual we have put an extra runner in the selections where we have tipped an emergency in case they don’t get a run. Remember it is free entry and free family entertainment at Caulfield today if you want to head trackside. RESULTS: Track comes up quite firm and it is a bit windy, and the inside does seem to be the worse going by far. Most winners run on late or come out wide and a few who kick on the turn and would normally be in the finish at Caulfield don't even make it into the placings. Some very even fields and most races have quite a few horses to follow out of them. Tips go really well with the Bet Bet and Best Win winning and the Best Each Way just getting bobbed out. BEST BET: Race 9: 5-TRUST IN A GUST $10 WIN 1st W=$2.00 = $20 Super consistent type who has won 7 and placed 12 from 14 and punters love him, he just keeps racing consistently and putting himself into the finish. Still getting into his races quite reasonably weighted. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both have been excellent, won 1st up and only just missed in the photo 2nd up. Drawn an inside barrier here, not much speed at all in this race, will probably go forward and track is likely to favour those on speed. Looks really had to beat and doesn’t seem to have much in the way of opposition here, only question is going to be how short he starts – would like around $3, currently around $2.60. RESULTS: A few scratchings and solid support means this one starts very short indeed, but never looked like getting beaten. BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-FORETELLER $7 WIN 1st W=$5.70 = $39.90 BEST WIN: Race 7: 9-STIPULATE $3 WIN X Sticking with the 2-FORETELLER in the feature race and happy to back him again. Two runs this time in have been excellent, fair enough he doesn’t win quite as often as he should, but as long as they are winning running on OK and jockey takes a bit more initiative with the ride this week think he is the one to beat. Back him straight out at around $5 and put a saver bet on the main danger the up and coming 9-STIPULATE at around $6.50 RESULTS: Track favours those running on and 2-FORETELLER settles a lot more forward this week - and guess what - he wins! Really had the best form by far going into this race and still think he is very underestimated, even by his stable. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-A TIME FOR JULIA $5 WIN 2nd W=$6.50 QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-A TIME FOR JULIA, 7-SHAMAL WIND x $3 2nd 4-A TIME FOR JULIA W=$6.50, 3rd 7-SHAMAL WIND W=$6.20 QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-A TIME FOR JULIA, 12-FOREVER LOVED x $2 2nd 4-A TIME FOR JULIA W=$6.50, X Another very consistent horse who has been placed 5 from 6 this track and 5 from 7 this distance. Good effort 1st up in what is looking a very strong form race and was right in the finish there. Should have more improvement to come, and should be able to sit just off the speed here and put herself into the finish and she looks a safe each way bet. Back straight out, and search for more value with the quinellas, with the (7) who was good 1st up and just needs some speed to drag her into the race and the value runner here the (12) who was really good late 1st up. Other chances to the (1) and (13), but let’s just stick with these ones and try for a more substantial collect. Each way at around $6. RESULTS: Looks the winner most of the way down the straight - and only gets bobbed out on the line. Miss out as we didn't bet each way, but 2nd and 3rd in a close finish and not far off. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 17-PRECIOUS GEM (emerg) $4 EW SCR $8 We are going to have to cross our figures and hope this one gets into the field as 2nd emergency. Last run here was huge, dropped back from rank outside barrier, was last on the turn and stormed home and only just missed. Winner from that race has won again last week at Flemington and form lines are looking strong. Should be plenty of improvement to come with the 2 runs in, and although up in class here, the last run was seriously good. Drawn a better barrier today and you would think she will settle a lot closer to the speed. Looks a solid each way bet at around $8 – main issue is going to be her getting in the field, but if she doesn’t watch out where she runs next and follow her. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-LET’S MAKE A DEAL $2.50 EW X She has only won 2 from 20 and her winning strike rate is starting to look a little ordinary, but she keeps contesting races at the highest level so doesn’t often get into a winnable race. Fitter for the 2 runs in and fought on well here last start in the Heatherlie and liked the run. Really unlucky here last year in the Herbert Power when she almost fell 1st time out of the straight and still only got beaten < 2 lengths. Form over staying trips last spring was pretty good. This is a quite an even field, and suspect she is going to get forgotten and get out to good odds here and if they settle her forward in a race with not much speed think she is likely to be in the finish at around $14 , but you might get closer to $20 on the tote on the day. RESULTS: This poor thing just continues to have no luck in her races. She was forced three wide early on, looked gone in the straight, but started coming again and was slowly building momentum - and the run closed on her. Surely her luck has to change sometime soon? QUINELLA: Race 1: 1-BULLPIT, 3-ZELETTO x $2 X, 3rd 3-ZELETTO W=$1.70 Just a warm up bet in the first where there is a short priced favourite in the (3) who should probably win, but is going to start very, very short. 1st race of the day, over the 1000M and think if something jumps and leads here they might be hard to run down. Most likely that is the (1) so let’s take a warm up quinella in the first. RESULTS: Well we got that half right - just picked the wrong leader. Third pick 6-ROUGH JUSTICE jumps and leads all the way at W=$27.70 and the favourite is pretty disappointing. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 8-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN at around $5.50 X 5th W=$8.50 Big, even field here and really this race has come up extremely strong for a BM90 with lots of winning chances. This one has won 3 on end, but they have all been on tracks with some give in them and strikes a firm track today which may not be her preferred going. Jockey won race last start by going forward early, but previously she has dropped well back and needed speed on, and dropping back in distance here too just wonder if she might drop back and give something on speed too big a start in this. Prefer to back others today. RESULTS: Drifts in betting, but actually works home pretty well and not far off them in the finish. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 5: QUINELLA: 5,7,10,16,17(scr) boxed x $5 = 50% SCR $2 2nd 5-SUAVITO W=$5.60 Good chance something at odds will get into the finish in a big field in Race 5. We have already had an each way bet on the (17) who is 2nd emergency and also like the (16) leading here at odds who is the other emergency. Box them up in quinella with the super talented 5-SUAVITO and a few other chances and hope for a collect. Substitute in the (6) as the other value runner if one of the emergencies don’t get a run. RESULTS: Unfortunately our emergency doesn't get into the field, and we didn't find the value winner 11-STAR FASHION W=$17.60 SPENT: $50 RETURN: $69.90 NET: $+19.90 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-BULLPIT, 3-ZELETTO, 6-ROUGH JUSTICE Race 2: 5-WAR POINT, 12-JUSTAWAY, 8-BREATH OF LIFE Race 3: 6-ANATINA, 10-RYKER, 7-RIFLEMAN Race 4: 3-FONTEIN RUBY, 9-PICKIN’ TIME, 17-SHOW US YOUR TATTS (emerg), 15-TASTE OF MONEY Race 5: 17-PRECIOUS GEM(emerg), 5-SUAVITO, 16-MEZERAY MISS (emerg), 7-MEMBER’S JOY Race 6: 1-SPILLWAY, 10-LET’S MAKE A DEAL, 3-ENTIRELY PLATINUM Race 7: 2-FORETELLER, 9-STIPULATE, 7-STAR ROLLING Race 8: 4-A TIME FOR JULIA, 7-SHAMAL WIND, 12-FOREVER LOVED Race 9: 5-TRUST IN A GUST, 10-PIN YOUR HOPES, 16-CAUTHEN |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BULLPIT 3-ZELETTO 3rd W=$1.70 6-ROUGH JUSTICE 1st W=$27.70 *** Nice value winner in the selections *** |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-WAR POINT 3rd W=$4.40 12-JUSTAWAY 8-BREATH OF LIFE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ANATINA 2nd W=$2.40 10-RYKER 7-RIFLEMAN 3rd W=$6.50 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-FONTEIN RUBY 9-PICKIN’ TIME 2nd W=$5.20 15-TASTE OF MONEY |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SUAVITO 2nd W=$5.60 16-MEZERAY MISS (emerg) 7-MEMBER’S JOY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SPILLWAY 10-LET’S MAKE A DEAL 3-ENTIRELY PLATINUM 2nd W=$8.10 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-FORETELLER 1st W=$5.70 *** Best Win Bet Of The Day *** 9-STIPULATE 7-STAR ROLLING |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-A TIME FOR JULIA 2nd W=$6.50 7-SHAMAL WIND 3rd W=$6.20 12-FOREVER LOVED |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-TRUST IN A GUST 1st W=$2.00 *** Best Bet Of The Day *** 10-PIN YOUR HOPES 16-CAUTHEN |
| RACE 7: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800M WFA |
| Tips: 2-FORETELLER 1st W=$5.70 9-STIPULATE 7-STAR ROLLING |
| Others: 10,6 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 6-LIDARI Handy: 1-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-SUPER COOL, 7-STAR ROLLING Back: 2-FORETELLER, 4-THE OFFER, 5-CRACKERJACK KING, 8-THOUGHT WORTHY, 9-STIPULATE, 10-SILENT ACHIEVER Chances: 2-FORETELLER is one of our favourite horses, think he is rather under rated, though lots of people like to tag him as a non-winner. Racing pattern doesn’t help, dropping well back and running on late always means you are going to get beaten more times than you win. Fitter for the 2 runs in - and they have both been excellent. Always finds the 1400M too short 1st up and he was coming home really well late in the Lawrence, and was really given no chance at all in the Dato Tan, dropping out to last in a race with a tear away leader means no hope. Ran on really well there and really if he settled one pair closer think he would have gone close to winning. Lack of speed here and small field is against him, but sheesh, would really like to see him ridden just a little closer – think it would make all the difference. Form is better than most of these, has genuine WFA form, dry track suits, extra distance suits, think there is plenty to like about him today. Just needs some speed on, or for them to be winning running on. Strong chance. 1st W=$5.70 7-STAR ROLLING has always had a huge spruik on him and looked like he was going to live up to them this spring with a solid 1st up WFA Lawrence win. Probably slightly disappointing in the Dato Tan when he had to track the tear away leader and he did struggle to keep up coming into the straight. Slower tempo here will suit and his best form is rolling on the speed which should happen here. Fitter for the 2 runs in and worth noting he was very close up in the St George/Peter Young in the Autumn at this track and distance, and that his best form does seem to be at Caulfield. Will race on speed and good chance this track will favour on pacers today. Still only the 13 starts, won half of them and think this sort of race is very winnable. Guess you could push for a stronger chance for those who beat him home in the Dato Tan, but think the tempo and track here will suit him more. Strong chance. 9-STIPULATE seems to be on a rapid upwards improvement and you have to respect those sort of horses as often they just keep on winning early in the spring. Yet another import, but at least he has shown some form in Australia. Really liked the 1st up win here in the Heatherlie and the form out of that races looks solid, but really like the way he came from off them, went past them and won by a clear margin – that was a sign of a horse going places. Needs to get some wins on the board to make the fields for the bigger races, and stable has obviously decided this is a winnable race – and they are probably right. He is a handicapper, but this isn’t a very strong WFA field at all. Interesting that they put his stable mate who has been going OK at WFA into the handicap, and this one into this race. Likely to drop back, and lack of speed in this race will be against, but if they are running on OK think he is a solid chance in this. Might be on the up and don’t underestimate. Chance. 10-SILENT ACHIEVER is probably one of the best WFA horses going around in Australia, and there really isn’t any depth at all in the WFA races this spring with no clear stand out performer. Hit peak form during the Sydney Autumn, and is capable on all types of going, in fact her dry track form is the best. She wasn’t far off all of the best races in Melbourne last spring, wasn’t far off at all and didn’t have the best of luck a few times – but never actually got into the finish of a race. Worth noting she has yet to place in 4 runs at Caulfield, but again they have all been at the top level and she hasn’t been that far away. Eye catching run 1st up when was making good ground. 2nd up and up 400M here and wasn’t beaten far in this race last year off a Memsie run when she had no luck at all. She is definitely the one to beat here, and probably has more class than these, just a little concerned she hasn’t really shown her best form in many of her Melbourne runs. Starts favourite here and think she is under the odds, not saying she can’t win, just not sure she represents value. Chance. Place: 1-HAPPY TRAILS is a genuine WFA performer these days and was unlucky not to win the Cox Plate last year. Genuine WFA performer in a race which really doesn’t have an awful lot of WFA talent in it. Given close to a full year off after Cox Plate last year, and his two runs back have been OK, but a bit lacklustre. He normally hits form a little quicker than this, but maybe is taking longer since he had the longer lay off? Hasn’t raced since the Memsie, where only just held ground and didn’t have much in the way of betting support. Fitter for the 2 runs in, out to the 1800M today, off only two 1200M/1400M runs in. Dry track is a big plus for this one, and you would think he would sit just on the speed here in a race with not much pace. Ran a pretty solid 4th, not beaten far at all in this race last year against a much stronger field, and his two lead up runs last year probably weren’t that much better. Weaker field this year and if he improves he is in with a chance, but you just get the impression he might need one more run this time in. Place only. 2nd W=$10.80 4-THE OFFER is the current Melbourne Cup favourite and sure to have plenty of improvement to come this spring. Solid run 1st up when made good ground, loved how the jockey jumped off and said how good he felt and how he wished the Melbourne Cup was tomorrow – seeing in that race the (2) came from lengths behind him and went straight past him that would make that one a Cup certainty then? Always been more of a handicapper, though this is hardly a vintage WFA field, and does probably prefer a bit of give in the ground so the firm track today is probably a bit of an issue, as is the lack of speed in this race. Lightly raced, good win strike rate and sure to be featuring in a big race this spring., but still only place at best in this sort of race. Place. 6-LIDARI is one that we can’t quite work out where he fits in. Sometimes he leads, sometimes he drops well back, sometimes he is a stayer, sometimes he is a 1400M to 1600M horse. Even though he is nominated for the Cups get the impression he is better off over a mile. Fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been good, just off the placings. The big plus with this one is that he can sit handy – or even lead, and he did pinch the Blamey over the Autumn by leading all the way. Listen out for riding tactics here, if they say they are going to lead and the track is favouring on pacers – and suspect they might, he is right in this race and elevate his chances. Best form is on dry tracks and should put himself into the race here. Looks very well suited in this if they lead. Against him is that he has been beaten by these his last two starts so good chance that might happen again. Rough chance. 4th W=$11.10 Sacking: 3-SUPER COOL looked like the next big thing after a stellar 3YO season, but just didn’t come back into any form at all last spring. Given the full year off to get his act together. Two runs back this spring and really, can’t tell much at all. Firm track suits, fitter for the 2 runs in, but hasn’t had anything at all in the way of betting support this time in and really does seem everyone is steering well clear of him till he strikes some form again. Would go close in this on best form, but his best form does seem to have been left long behind. No. 5-CRACKERJACK KING is a lightly raced 7YO import who has set lofty expectations for himself based on his flashy name alone. Had two years off before the run down the Flemington straight 1st up, and then hard to get enthused about Dato Tan run. Stable is on fire this spring, but still have to wait and see how this guy lines up down here as hasn’t done anything to get excited about so far in Australia. No. 3rd W=$32.60 8-THOUGHT WORTHY is another lightly raced import who has yet to show much in his two Australian runs and they have both been in much weaker handicaps so hard to see him figuring here. Stable runners can improve suddenly over ground, but they are also known to sell them on quickly if they don’t make the grade - so watch out for the discounted sale in the car park after the race. Have to wait till he strikes form before getting on, worth noting he did go forward last start, but suspect he will probably settle back today. No. Summary: Some of the early WFA races in the spring can be on the weaker side, but normally come Underwood Stakes Day you get a pretty solid and competitive WFA field. This field does appear to be on the weaker side and there is a really lack of a stand out WFA horse at the moment. Smallish and fairly lack lustre field and as is often the case in these races there doesn’t seem to be much speed at all. Suspect they will run to the lead today with the 6-LIDARI and he will be hard to run down if the on pacers are winning, and really only 7-STAR ROLLING sitting off him as the only other on pacer. Despite all that (and we are so totally playing favourites) we are going to stick with the 2-FORETELLER here. Does have a habit of always running on too late, but as long as they are winning running on from behind OK today, and it is not a leaders track think he is the one to beat here. Hopefully they might settle him a little closer? Fitter for the 2 runs in, extra distance suits, and both of his runs this time in have been excellent, up against many going around here. 9-STIPULATE the main danger, really liked the last win and don’t want to under estimate one on a rapid improve, but he will also need them to be winning running on OK. Out of the on pacers, think you want to give 7-STAR ROLLING another chance, especially back to Caulfield. 10-SILENT ACHIEVER the other obvious danger, but don’t think she represents value. Happy to back to top two picks here, and maybe take them in quinellas with the (7) in a pretty even field. One to risk: 4-THE OFFER 9th W=$10.80 Roughie: 1-HAPPY TRAILS 2nd W=$10.80 The Key: Weak field for a Group1 WFA RESULTS: Track plays towards the runners on and 2-FORETELLER actually settles more forward for once - and that makes all the difference and he wins. Spot on in the preview with the Best Roughie 1-HAPPY TRAILS running 2nd, and 10-SILENT ACHIEVER probably a little disappointing. Still think you want to keep following the winner this spring and 1-HAPPY TRAILS probably the most improvement to come out of this race. |
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