|CAULFIELD: UNDERWOOD STAKES - 1st Oct 2017|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
The feature Caulfield meeting is on Sunday this week. There are a few showers around heading into the weekend, but nothing that should really affect this track and it should come up quite firm. Most importantly, don’t forget Daylight Savings starts this Sunday too.
The rail goes back to TRUE here and we should get even racing. Generally though in nearly every meeting this spring we have had racing patterns favouring on pacers on firm tracks with not much rain around and suspect the same thing will happen here again today. This is a strange betting program, there are 3-4 races with near unbackable short priced favourites, and then a few races that are total raffles that you don’t probably want to touch, unless it is with a very, long punting stick. We have gone pretty rough in some of those races with the top picks. Plenty of good horses to watch run though and a few with a real buzz about them will mean exciting racing.
In the feature Underwood Stakes, the favourite the 1-HARTNELL is obviously the one to beat and on best form will easily cover these, but that flat run last start is a slight concern. Actually keen to push for the up and coming 9-SAMOVARE here, improving with every run, and was really good here last week when chased hard. The 3-GAILO CHOP can go to the lead here and might run better than expected and have to respect the 8-BONNEVAL off an impressive first up win in a messy race. Pretty keen to have something each way on 9-SAMOVARE though as the main bet of the day.
We are going to double up the Betting Portfolio this week, despite the mounting losses as there is a fair bit of value around today.
BEST WIN : Race 8: 14-MR SNEAKY $7.50 WIN
BEST WIN : Race 8: 4-TOSEN STARDOM $7.50 WIN
Really even feature race in the Rupert Clarke with lots of light weight, winning chances, but we are pretty keen to back these two straight out to win. The (14) was really good pouncing to win 1st up and then just couldn’t quite run down the leader last start, but should be fitter for the run and looks well suited here from a good barrier, sitting and pouncing again. The (4) was a really good run in the Memsie, (note he finished better than HUMIDOR), and should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Drawn out, but blinkers go on first time here is an important gear change and should be suited by the fast speed in this. It is a bit tricky to line this race up, as the 6-CHARMED HARMONY has been scratched before on firm tracks and totally changes the speed map if he runs or not. In a tough race keen to back these two straight out at around $8.50 and $6.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 15-MAGIC CONSOL $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 15-MAGIC CONSOL#1,4,8,17,19 x $5 = 100%
Really consistent type who looks well suited into this race. Consistently around the money and simply doesn’t run out the 2000M and must better suited back to this distance. Take out the 2 x 2000M runs and has been in the finish last 4 starts in this distance range. Drawn well, and will sit handy and get a perfect run here and should present at the right time in the straight. Open race with plenty of chances, so back each way at around $12 and as often in the finish is a good horse to anchor in a quinella with the other main chances.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-LIMESTONE $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-LIMESTONE, 1-CATCHY x $3 = 400%
QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-LIMESTONE, 8-SHE’S SO HIGH x $1 = 100%
The favourite the super classy 1-CATCHY is obviously the one to beat in this race, but there may not be as much between these two as there seems. Hardly anything between them back here in the Autumn in the Blue Diamond Prelude. Fitter for the two runs in, was finishing off nicely at MV and then was running into the finish strongly at Flemington when clipped heels and fell. The fall is a concern as horses can lose form and confidence, but if she comes back OK think she can challenge the favourite here. Nicely drawn to sit on them here and looks like the 1400M will suit and think she is worth an each way bet at around $9.50 to upset the favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 7-MALIBU STYLE $5 EW
Again a very open race to end the day, but there doesn’t actually seem to be a lot of speed here and a lot of the main chances are drop back horses who are drawn badly. This one is fitter for the two runs in and held on OK here last start in a race dominated by swoopers. Drawn inside, will race on speed here and might kick nicely in the straight if they don’t go too hard in front in this. Each way at around $14.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 4-OZI CHOICE $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 2,4,9,10,18 boxed x $5 = 50%
The first race is beyond ridiculous, but the (4) is fit and in form and has been racing well and looks over the odds at around $19. Should go forward from an outside barrier and is normally in the finish. We have gone a bit silly in the tips with a few roughies like the 10-TRIBAL WISDOM, so box up a quinella just in case and not really a race for any sort of serious bet.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 6-DIVINE CHILLS $3 EW
We keep wanting to back this one, but the trainer keeps scratching her because of firm tracks and probably a good chance that is going to happen again. Last two runs have been excellent, made a looping run into the huge head wind the day the races were cancelled here, and then held up for runs coming to the turn at MV and finished on well late. Drawn out, but can sit handy, and is fit and in form and looks nicely suited in this race. Just needs to actually start to be a chance. Rough at around $23 and seems well over the odds based on good form.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 9-SAMOVARE $5 WIN $15 PLACE
This mare has been going great this spring and seems to be one on the way up. Improving as the distances increase and really like the way she sat handy and chased hard here last start. Up in class to WFA, but she is one on the improve and like that she has the 2000M run over her rivals here. In a small field, she can box seat again and wouldn’t be surprised if she caused a boilover here – she looks to be a very good horse in the making. This is actually our main bet of the day. We are keen to back her each way over the favourite at around $21, with more the place and looks a very solid place bet at around $4.20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 12-BADAJOZ at around $5
Sydney sprinter who has been racing in good form up there, but has yet to win in Melbourne from 6 starts, despite winning 5 from 19 overall. Drawn well and is fit and in form, but suspect is better with some give in the ground and prefer others in a big, even field.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 4,14 / 3,4,5,14,16 / 3,4,5,6,14,15,16 x $5 = 12.5%
Trifecta in the feature race should pay well with a very even betting market. Anchor the two main winning chances the 14-MR SNEAKY, 4-TOSEN STARDOM to win, put the main dangers in for second with some value around 5-GRANDE ROSSO and 16-LAND OF PLENTY and plonk some roughies in for third for a dividend blow out.
Race 1: 4-OZI CHOICE, 18-BATTLECAMP (emerg), 10-TRIBAL WISDOM, 2-PORTION CONTROL
Race 2: 6-DIVINE CHILLS, 5-QUILISTA, 11-SELENIA
Race 3: 1-HARDHAM, 3-PABLO’S EXPRESS, 2-LYCURGUS
Race 4: 15-MAGIC CONSOL, 4-AMOVATIO, 19-DODGING BULLETS (emerg), 8-COOL CHAP
Race 5: 3-LIMESTONE, 1-CATCHY, 8-SHE’S SO HIGH
Race 6: 3-ROYAL SYMPHONY, 8-ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE, 6-KEMENTARI
Race 7: 1-HARTNELL, 9-SAMOVARE, 3-GAILO CHOP
Race 8: 14-MR SNEAKY, 4-TOSEN STARDOM, 5-GRANDE ROSSO
Race 9: 7-MALIBU STYLE, 13-RICH CHARM, 11-SHAF