|CAULFIELD: UNDERWOOD STAKES - 30th Sept 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have a cold snap for the weekend in Melbourne, but actually there isnít that much rain forecast with some rain around Friday, but just showers the other days. This track should stay on the firmer side, but always hard to judge how much rain is going to come. Rail goes back to TRUE for the feature meeting, after being OUT 9M here last week, so the best ground should be against the rails. We should get an even racing pattern, maybe just a slight advantage to on pacers earlier on in the day.
The feature Underwood Stakes really isnít inspiring us in the slightest, fields full of overseas imports are always hard to line up and create no betting interest for us. The key to this race is going to be the speed, or the lack of it, with the tempo looking quite slow. Likely leader is the 8-HOMESMAN, with the 1-BLACK HEART BART sitting handy (doubt they will go forward as hard as they did last time), and suspect they will ride the 9-GRUNT more forward today. Regardless there doesnít look to be much pressure up front ands suspect this is going to turn into a sprint home. Not sure where the import 7-BLAIR HOUSE lands so listen out for riding tactics, he is sure to be well supported after the stable success of last week, but not sure the slow tempo here is going to suit and always prefer to see these imports run no matter how much spruik is on them.
They seem to be taking it in turns to win the WFA races this Spring, and we are actually keen to jump onto the 5-COMINí THROUGH this week. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and the Flemington run was actually pretty good when got too far back and was coming through the field nicely towards the end of the race. Small field and slow tempo might suit, and suspect jockey Walker might position him up closer to the front here, and in a sprint home he has the turn of foot to win this. Main danger is the 8-HOMESMAN whose Australian form is pretty consistent and suspect he has a fair bit of improvement to come now he is into his second preparation. Hit the line well in the Feehan and he should go on with it this spring, and big plus is that he can lead and dictate this race. Tossing up for third, the 2-HUMIDOR who won here in the Memsie would win this race easily, the 2-HUMIDOR who ran in the Makybe Diva probably wouldnít run a place. Horse with a stack of ability on the days he has his best form, but he can have an off day. Betting markets will probably tell the story. The 9-GRUNT was probably a bit ordinary in his first two Caulfield starts, and then a totally different and dominant horse at Flemington. Back to Caulfield and out to 1800M for the first time here is the question, but rolling on the speed he really only needs to repeat his last win to win this. Overall, not a race we are keen to bet on though and probably just an each way bet on the top pick.
For the rest of the program we have a really challenging betting day ahead and think there is quite a bit of depth to some of these races and finding it hard to split a few runners in some of the races. We chopped and changed quite a few times on some of the selections here which just goes to show how even some of these races are.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-TATOOSH $4 EW
Consistent SA visitor who is fitter for the 2 runs in and fought on well last start when stepping up sharply in distance. Has been competitive in races over here before and should get the perfect run today behind three leaders who will take each other on, the (2), (3) and (8), so should pull out and present to win this race at the right time. Each way at around $6.50 in a small field early in the day.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 3-NATIVE SOLIDER $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 3-NATIVE SOLIDER, 4-GOODíNíFAST, 11-TAVISAN boxed x $3 = 100%
Sensational win here two starts back and then didnít think the run up the Flemington straight was actually that bad. He led on the outside rail, into a strong wind and really only just faded over the last 50M. Repeat of the last Caulfield win and he would probably win this race today. He has drawn wide (as he did last win), and may drift badly in the market again like he did last time here. Ridden the same way, aggressively forward, he should be able to get across from the outside barrier, and really the (11) is the only other speed in the race so those two should clear out and may even fight out the race. The (4) is the best of the closers, and even though this is quite an open race fairly confident that one of these three wins. Back the (3) each way at around $11 and take a quinella on the three main chance which should pay OK in a even field.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-SPANISH WHISPER $4 EW
Filly who is coming along nicely this preparation. Fitter for the two runs in, and really liked the run here last start when worked on the speed and actually kicked clear early in the straight but run ended and one who looks pretty smart flew past. Should be ready to win today and should get a lot of improvement out of the run here last week. Up against a short priced favourite with a boom on her, the (3), but she is up sharply to the 1400M for the 1st time, whereas this one has run here over the track and distance last start, so might be able to beat her today. Well drawn to go forward in a race where there doesnít look to be a lot of pressure up front and think she represents a great each way bet at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-COMINí THROUGH $4 EW
Keen to jump on this one today in the feature race and they seem to be taking it in turns for the WFA race this spring. Really liked the Flemington run when slowly away and took a bit of time to get used to Melbourne way of going, but finished off race really well. Suspect will settle a lot more forward today and will be suited if this turns into a sit sprint race. Each way at around $7.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 1-PRIZED ICON, 7-OCTABELLO x $3 = 300%
The (1) is a short priced favourite here and deserves to be dropping sharply in class and well weighted under these conditions against lesser rivals. Just hasnít won for a while. Suspect the (7) is going to run really well here, 4 runs in and out to the 2000M and they might fight out the finish so letís take a quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 11-SPLIT LIP $2 EW
Mare who is 1st up, but ran some great races in strong fields last spring, and had a good campaign in Adelaide over the Autumn. Off to a new stable, so maybe watch the betting market, but think she will get the race run to suit here. There is a furious speed up front in this, with 3-4 runners who can lead and some have to cross from outside barriers, and even though she is drawn wide she can drop back here and finish over the top of them which is her racing pattern. Look for value in a big, even field at around $23.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 11-I DID IT AGAIN $2.50 EW
Showed a lot of promise with 1st start win here, and hasnít quite gone on with it, but does have the ability to be a factor in this. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and just let the winner get a kick on him last start, but really finished the race off strongly under a big weight. Can box seat here in a race without a huge amount of speed and up against a lot of back markers and 1st up horses should be in the finish here. Nice rough bet at around $23.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 3-SOOTHING at around $5.50
Nothing particularly against this horse who has been racing well in Sydney and is probably suited as a drop back horse from an outside barrier with the speed on here. Just there are a lot of chances in this field and prefer to go for something at more value and does have to give weight to a lot of good up and coming horses towards the bottom of the weights. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 1: 14-ARTIES DREAMWINNER
PLACE Race 2: 7-TATOOSH
PLACE Race 6: 11-TAVISAN
PLACE Race 7: 6-SPANISH WHISPER
Jockey J.Kah has some very similar rides today and suspect all of them may be in the finish, so she might be in for a good day and deserves some more Melbourne Spring Carnival success. They all race handy and are fit and ready to go, so look good for forming the basis of the Poor Manís Quaddie. Throw in the Race 6: 11-TAVISAN as the on pacer in the Guineas Prelude who should stick on well as well and think we should give this a shake today. Looking at around $350 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 9-WAYANKA, 14-ARTIES DREAMWINNER, 2-…CLAIR CALLING
Race 2: 7-TATOOSH, 6-WAGING WAR, 4-VIOLATE
Race 3: 1-PRIZED ICON, 7-OCTABELLO, 4-AYERS ROCK
Race 4: 17-SMART COUPE (emerg), 11-SPLIT LIP, 16-GREY SHADOW, 12-OUR CROWN MISTRESS
Race 5: 11-I DID IT AGAIN, 2-BOOKER, 10-TRUE EXCELSIOR
Race 6: 3-NATIVE SOLIDER, 4-GOODíNíFAST, 11-TAVISAN
Race 7: 6-SPANISH WHISPER, 3-SMART MELODY, 2-THRILLSTER
Race 8: 5-COMINí THROUGH, 8-HOMESMAN, 9-GRUNT
Race 9: 13-ANOTHER DOLLAR, 10-FURRION, 2-LIFE LESS ORDINARY