|CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 29th September 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Just a few showers heading into the weekend and that really shouldnít be enough to affect the track. Rail goes OUT 6M, compared to the OUT 3M here last week where although they could run on and win early it was quite noticeable later in the day the winners were all coming on pace and from inside barriers. Even though we have had some traffic and the rail goes out a bit, suspect that is likely to be the racing pattern again so watch out closely for those who suit the form profile. Keep a close eye on it as many of the runners we like today are back markers.
In the feature Underwood Stakes we have to try and work out if the surprise last start winner 7-GATTING is going to do it all again, or just had a day in the sun at Flemington the other week. There is definitely a lot more pressure up front today than that race, with the 2-GAILO CHOP and 6-TRAP FOR FOOLS leading, and 7-GATTING, 8-HOMESMAN 9-YUCATAN (unlikely runner?) and maybe 1-HARTNELL sitting behind them.
Think you have to put the 8-HOMESMAN on top here, he won this race last year coming off a 2nd in the Feehan and goes into this yearís race coming off a impressive last start win in the same race. Drawn out, will go forward, there is plenty of speed so he should sit just behind the leaders and get a clear run into the race when it counts. The $2.70 is a bit on the short side, but he is definitely the one to beat. The main danger, and one we are keen to back today is the 4-HUMIDOR, fitter for the 2 runs in, will appreciate the rise in distance, and as long as they are running on OK he is going to love the speed up front here which finally allows him to drop back and run on late. He ran 3rd in this race last year and hasnít been suited in his two runs this time in, which were both on speed dominated. Respect the 12-THE CHOSEN ONE who was even 1st up and probably has a lot more upside than most of these in terms of we donít know exactly where he sits in the pecking order as the new 4YO on the scene at WFA. Stable has an amazing record in this race, having won it 3 times in the last 8 years, with LION TAMER (2011), ITĒS A DUNDEEL (2013) and BONNEVAL (2017), all with 4YOs. In fact, six out of the last ten winners of this race have been 4YOs and there arenít normally that many in this race, so definitely keep him safe. The 1-HARTNELL has been in the top four in these sort of races pretty much every start for the last few years, he has been held up for runs on the inside first two starts this time in, and then just got too far back last start and made good ground late. He is going great, just seems to maybe have lost a length and bit worried about him drawing (1) again especially with a lot of on-pacers dropping back in his lap, but cannot knock his form. Best roughie is probably the 11-SUPER TITUS, forget the race here last week which was a mess and he may have a race fitness edge on some of this. In terms of punting strategy, we will probably have something each way on the (4) and try and snare an exotic around the others.
If you have a look back at last weekís preview although we didnít find the winners there was plenty of value in the horses spotted in the form previews. This is very tricky program, there looks to be a bit of depth and variety to these fields and think there is a good chance of some value winners today (not necessarily the ones we pick, just in general). Confusing the form is that we have multiple double acceptors across the weekend so you have to work out who is going to race where. We are assuming Race 1: 1-OCEANEX, 4-SOMETHING SILVER and Race 7:9-YUCATAN are racing MV Friday night, and not sure if Race 3:8-DR DRILL is going to race at Rosehill Saturday, so will put an extra selection in that race. We are going to double up to $100 today, mainly because there are a lot of keen betting races so we need to spread the bets around a fair bit.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 6-MISSILE MANTRA $10 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 6: 10-SNAPDANCER $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-SNAPDANCER#1,2,6,7,13 x $5 = 100%
We are not sure if this one is just teasing us, or has just been really unlucky. Both runs this time in have been identical, caught up inside horses at the back of the field and running home late. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, there should be enough speed on in a big field, and has drawn out to drop back and run on late. Just needs the racing pattern to suit. Realistically she is the sort of horse who will win, or not run a place, so letís back straight out at around $5 and save on the value runner here the 10-SNAPDANCER who has done nothing wrong in her career to date, will race on speed from a good barrier and put herself into the finish. Add in a quinella anchoring with the classy 1-LYRE, the 2-TENLEY who was good from back last start, the 6-MISSILE MANTRA, the consistent 7-ST EDWARDS CROWN, and the other value runner the 13-SAONE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-VASSILATOR $5 EW
Horse who career stats donít look the best, but he really is a bit particular and needs a mile, a dry track and to be outside horses and running on late. Fitter for the 3 runs in and he has been cramped for room a few times inside horses and hasnít been beaten far. This looks a much more suitable race today, again we just need them to be running on OK though. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 1-MAHAMEDEIS $5 EW
This one is lumped at the top of the weights here and giving away 4-5kgs to most of the field, but think you just have to trust his form which is excellent. Both runs this time in have been eye catchers finishing on strongly late and ran at place at WFA last start. Likely to drop back from inside barrier here, but he just seems to be flying and keen to get on at around $9. The 2-ROX THE CASTLE is also flying and will get a soft lead here, so a lot is going to depend on the racing pattern, but just be wary he is up in weights and meets the 9-TRAVIMYFRIEND significantly worse off at weights for a narrow defeat.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 12-EXPRESS PASS $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 12-EXPRESS PASS#3-DALASAN, 14-SHOTMAKER x $5 = 250%
QUINELLA: Race 5: 12-EXPRESS PASS#7,9,16 x $3 = 100%
Has done very little wrong in career to date and is a back marker who flies home late. Was making good ground out wide last start down the straight at Flemington and you would think out to the 1400M will suit. Drawn out, but is going to drop back anyway and there does seem to be a fair bit of pressure up front in this race so again we just need to hope the racing pattern allows them to run on OK. Back each way at around $10, and save on a quinella with the classy 3-DALASAN who is going to be hard to beat as favourite on speed, and the value runner the 14-SHOTMAKER who although is a maiden looks ready to do something, is fitter for the 2 runs in and will get a cosy on speed run. Play again in a quinella with some outsiders, the 7-CREATOR who was good last start and will run the trip, the consistent on speed 9-THE HOLY ONE at odds, and the unknown quality the Adelaide visitor the 16-DEFIANT DANCER.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 15-MR EXCLUSIVE $7.50 EW
Under rated performer who looks to have landed into a very suitable race here. Raced very consistently over winter, and has had a break, but won a recent barrier trial so should be pretty forward. Most of all we just like where he is going to position here, there is little speed up front, he should be able to cross and sit just behind the lead and present at the right time. Looks a really solid each way bet at around $11 and maybe longer on the day if the money comes for the spruik horses.
QUINELLA: Race 8: boxed 1,2,10,11,14 x $5 = 50%
This is an extremely tricky race to line up with plenty of promising horses 1st up, so the betting market will be the best guide. Safest way is to just box up a quinella, with the 11-HAUNTED who should get a good run behind the speed, the two class horses at the top of the weights the 1-SPIRIT OF VALOUR and 2-BRAVE SONG, the in form 14-PARSIFAL, and just throw in a random roughie the 10-TELEPLAY who more ability than the $40 odds suggest.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-FILL THE FLUTE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 9-VICTORY KINGDOM, 8-FILL THE FLUTE x $2
Speedster who was good 1st up when burnt to the lead, was pressured and stuck on well along the inside which might not have been the best going. Career stats are actually pretty good and comes into this race well with the claim. Things are also starting to fall into place with the other likely leader the (3) being scratched. So what we want to see if for them to burn forward here from an outside barrier, you can often jump and run and just keep going from these Caulfield sprint starts and wouldnít be surprised if she does something today at around $20. Very keen rough bet, and save on the quinella with the promising 9-VICTORY KINGDOM who is probably going to be better than most of these, just not sure about dropping back in distance here.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 4-HUMIDOR $2.50 EW
Proven WFA performer who should be fitter for the two runs in where he has dropped back in on speed dominated races. Probably isnít showing quite as much as previous preparations just yet, but could be ready to improve today out to a longer distance, with more speed up front. Just need them to be running on OK. Something on at about $20.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 6: 3-FLIT at around $4.
Classy back marker who is drawn wide and will need to run on late, but there are also plenty who will need to do the same here and think the others in blue like the (1) and (2) should be shorter odds then her as they have good solid Melbourne form. This is a deep race with plenty of winning chances so suspect something will be better then her on the day and happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into enough to aid the mission to Mars.
$5 ALL UP:
PLACE: Race 1: 11-ROOM TO RHYME
PLACE: Race 2: 8-FILL THE FLUTE
PLACE: Race 4: 9-TRAVIMYFRIEND
PLACE: Race 9: 15-MR EXCLUSIVE
Back to the old trusty Poor Manís Quaddie and we really need to land one of these soon or just give them up. Plenty of value with the fit and in form leader the 11-ROOM TO RHYME in a race with little depth if the favourites are scratched, and happy to roll into the speedster 8-FILL THE FLUTE leading in Race 2. The 9-TRAVIMYFRIEND prefers it wet but is going to roll on speed here with little pressure so should be in the finish, and come home on the under rated 15-MR EXCLUSIVE in the last. Whilst these may not win, they shouldnít be far off the finish and looking at a tidy $1000 if they run a place (dividends will decrease if the favoured runners drop out of the first leg).
Race 1: 11-ROOM TO RHYME, 3-PIERROCITY, 6-ANNARBOR
Race 2: 9-VICTORY KINGDOM, 8-FILL THE FLUTE, 5-PETRELLE
Race 3: 8-DR DRILL, 5-VASSILATOR, 14-STAROUZ, 11-ROYAL ACE
Race 4: 1-MAHAMEDEIS, 2-ROX THE CASTLE, 9-TRAVIMYFRIEND
Race 5: 12-EXPRESS PASS, 3-DALASAN, 14-SHOTMAKER
Race 6: 6-MISSILE MANTRA, 10-SNAPDANCER, 1-LYRE
Race 7: 8-HOMESMAN, 4-HUMIDOR, 12-THE CHOSEN ONE.
Race 8: 11-HAUNTED, 1-SPIRIT OF VALOR, 2-BRAVE SONG
Race 9: 15-MR EXCLUSIVE, 20-JUMBO OZAKI (emerg), 7-TARWIN, 11-AIGUILETTE