|CAULFIELD: UNDERWOOD STAKES Ė 26th September 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
We have serious rain forecast heading into the weekend, with large falls for Friday night and some rain again on Saturday. Caulfield has raced pretty fairly this spring, and they could win on-speed or running on out wide here last week. This week the rail is OUT 6M for this meeting, and although the track is a GOOD(4) it will almost certainly end up worse side of soft, and they are likely to be coming off the rails in the straight, so donít be scared of backing horses drawn out and running on later in the day.
We have a smallish field for the feature Underwood Stakes and plenty of well-known names going around. Key here is going to be the speed, and there doesnít look to be much with only the old timers 1-GAILO CHOP and 3-TRAP FOR FOOLS going forward with not much pressure up front, the 4-LEVENDI sitting handy, and maybe the 8-HARBOUR VIEWS sitting more forward this week in the run.
Going through the field, old-timer 1-GAILO CHOP is a well-known leader who has pretty impressive track and distance starts, his last three runs Caulfield 1800M has been a 3rd in this race last year, previous to that a win in the Peter Young Stakes the year before and another placing in this race in 2018. He has been struggling with injuries though and only had the 3 runs this year. Didnít do much first up, just plugged away at Flemington, but he didnít lead either there and worth noting he ran 3rd in this race last year off the same preparation and a fairly ordinary 1st up run in the same race. Excellent wet track form, but he did have several trials leading into his spring campaign last year and suspect he is still going to need a run or to find his form this time in. The 2-HUMIDOR surprised with his first up win, the speed and pressure on did suit, as did the firm track. We have a big query on him on a genuinely wet track, all the soft track form in his stats are back in NZ in 2016. On his best form he would beat these, and a run on out wide track pattern may suit, but suspect the race got set up for him at MV and want to see him again before getting on. The 3-TRAP FOR FOOLS is a tough on-pace leader, but really needs a dry track to show his best. Will go forward here and does have the benefit of trials which his Victorian rivals donít have due to covid restrictions but still want to see him have the run before getting on. The 4-LEVENDI has been struggling with injury for some time now, will probably go forward and sit handy, but needs to show some form before being considered. The 5-SO SI BON is an interesting runner, he is very one-paced so a bit of rain and wind actually seems to suit him as it slows down the other horses as he tends to grind home. Fitter for the 3 runs in and he actually hit the line pretty well in the Makybe Diva last start against most of these. He did run 4th in an Australian Cup over 2000M, but prefer him over a mile, and suspect WFA 1800M probably finds him out today but he is a rough chance on his form and suited in the likely wet conditions.
The 6-MR QUICKIE has a bundle a talent and has won 9 from 21 and to be honest donít think we have ever backed him Ė he tends to win brilliantly or do nothing and is a very hot and cold horse. Flashed home really well 1st up, and up 400M here today and onto a genuine wet track is going to be the question mark. Worth noting he won 9 of his first 13 starts and has managed 3 x 2nd and 1 x 3rd in the eight starts since, although they have all been at the top level. He will be suited if they are coming off the rails and running on late so maybe watch the betting market, there isnít much depth to this race so it is a race he could pinch flashing home late. The 7-THE CHOSEN ONE really surprised with his first up win, he carried 61 kgs and was quite dominant and he hasnít normally been a fresh horse. He handles it wet and is going to be suited if there is a lot of rain and wind and this turns into a slog and is some blow out chance here. The 8-HARBOUR VIEWS has always had big wraps on him and has his eyes set on the Cox Plate this spring. Wet track is no issue for him and like that he probably goes forward here and just sits off a moderate tempo, so he can put himself first into the race and maybe even pinch this on the home turn. Surprised about the odds on offer here and think he is a genuine chance to beat the favourite in this if it is a sit and sprint finish. The 9-ARCADIA QUEEN has been struggling with a few issues, loomed up nicely in the Lawrence first up, and then chased hard at Flemington coming off a lay-off and will have a lot of improvement off that run. Up 400M though and might need the run and largely unknown on wet ground, just wonder if it may take a bit off her finishing burst, and think she is under the odds at the moment so prefer to risk her here. The 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT looks like being the pin-up horse of the spring heading towards the Melbourne Cup, everyone saw the massive first up effort when he was caught wide the whole way and was only beaten by one with match fitness. Wet track no drama and he can probably settle mid-field here and not drop well back and he is clearly the one to beat. Have to say suspect he is a big track horse and not sure Caulfield is going to be totally suitable, and especially not if the tempo is not genuine, but the tough conditions should play back in his favour. So donít actually think he is a sure thing and he is very skinny odds but definitely the one to beat.
So comes down here to the one we tip to play it safe, or the one we would probably back. The 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT is definitely the one to beat and top pick, likely to go on to do incredible things this spring, but actually think 2nd up, up 400M, into a small field with stop/start tempo and around Caulfield which might not be his best track he is actually beatable and wouldnít be taking the $2 odds on offer. The one we want to back here is definitely the 8-HARBOUR VIEWS at the $13 on offer, think he should be clear second favourite here, and will go forward and sit handy and get the perfect run into this and just loves it wet. The 6-MR QUICKIE for third as the small field and likely off rails racing pattern will suit him flashing home late. Best roughie is the 7-THE CHOSEN ONE who surprised with his excellent 1st up win and is suited in a tough slog. Probably not a great betting race because of the short priced favourite but will definitely be having something each way on the second pick and expect those odds to shorten considerably come race time.
Pretty good betting program and we have some small fields where the favourites will probably win and some big fields were there seems to be a stack of value. Note we are assuming that Race 4: 6-BROOKLYN HUSTLE, 7-ALFA ORO, Race 6: 2-CHERRY TORTONI, Race 9: 13-REALM OF FLOWERS are all going around at MV Friday night. Watch out for old timer 15-LORD DURANTE having his 100th start in the last race at $126, he has actually ran first 5 in 3 of his last 4 city Saturday runs. We are going to double up to $100 today mainly because we think the quaddie is worth a shot. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 3-RUNSON $10 WIN
This tip looks a bit funny looking at the original fields, but both the 6-BROOKLYN HUSTLE, 7-ALFA ORO are entered for MV Friday night which takes the top two chances out of the field and leaves us with a field of only 6. Quite strange that they are running 7-ALFA ORO in a MV night 955M race rather than a Saturday listed race, but assume there is a master plan there. Anyway in a small field, nearly all of the rivals are first up and this one just loves to jump and run to a long clear lead and should be able to do that easily today and going to be hard to run down. Currently around $8, but odds will be closer to $4 once scratchings come out and think he can run them off their feet here with race fitness.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 4-FLYING AWARD $10 WIN
Talented 3YO on the way up and super impressive here last start when flew from the back of the field to just miss in a blanket finish. Win before that at Flemington was even more impressive coming from last on the turn. Scratched from the Bill Stutt Stakes Friday night to be kept for this (and his main rival the 2-CHERRY TORTONI is going around in that race instead). He is likely to drop back again and we are slightly concerned there isnít much pressure up front in this race, but assume the racing pattern will favour those running on late and he looks to be a class horse on the rise. Back straight out at around $5 in an open field.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 16-GHODELEINE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 16-GHODELEINE#7,11,14,17 x $4 = 100%
One we have been following this spring and she looks to be a staying mare on the way up. Fitter for the two runs in which have both been excellent, stuck on really well on speed behind a smart one at Sandown, and then hit the line well at MV last start. Jockey Kah on board is in flying form, and although she is drawn very, very wide there is a fair bit of speed in this and assume she can follow one across and settle in the first half of the field and extra distance should suit. Back each way at around $14 and there are some very nice quinellas to be found here anchoring with the leader the 17-LORD BOUZERON who might repeat his previous win here running along in front, the 7-SKYMAN who was flying before last start flop and lets forgive that run, the 11-DONíT DOUBT DORY who is a lightly raced stayer on the rise and will be on-speed from a good barrier and the roughie 14-IRISH FLAME who is fitter for the 3 runs in and has raced pretty well at long odds last few starts.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-LETZBEGLAM $7 EW
Fairly open edition of the Thousand Guineas Prelude and it is quite noticeable there doesnít seem to be that much pressure up front in this race. This one was super impressive winning here in a Blue Diamond Prelude (maybe she is a Prelude specialist!). First up run was good down the straight when fought on well on-speed and drawn well and going forward here think she will give you a pretty good run for your money at around $13.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-HARBOUR VIEWS $5 WIN $10 PLACE
Although the potential super star the short priced 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT is the one to beat in the feature Underwood Stakes, this is actually the one we want to back, so cheating a little and backing the second pick each way. Loves it wet, has the class to win this, will position on-speed and coming off a good 1st up run and think he is well over the odds at around $14 and the $3 the place looks very tempting instead of backing a short priced favourite.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-TRIED AND TIRED $2.50 EW
Pretty silly second race so you might as well look for something at odds. This one is fitter for the 3 runs in and fought on pretty well on-speed at Cranbourne last start on a swoopers track. Handles it wet and whilst hasnít really been up to city class for a while, he looks to get a pretty good run here on speed from a good barrier and will probably stick on OK in the straight so maybe something each way at around $31.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 12-EXASPERATE $6 EW
We want to launch into a roughie in the last race and we have been following this one for a while and he is much underrated. His recent form has been excellent last few campaigns, particularly over 1600M and at Caulfield (5 starts, yet to miss a place). Fitter for the 2 runs in, worked home well 1st up here, and then he gave the feature races a crack last start so better suited dropping back in class. Likes to drop back and run on and looks to be good speed here and although drawn inside they will probably be splitting across the track at the end of the day and the gap should come. Up against some pretty talented types, but think he is a good value roughie in the last race at around $35.
QUADDIE: Races 6,7,8,9: 4,5,6,8,9 / 1,4,6 / 8,10 / 4,9,12 x $15 = 16.67%
We want to have a crack at the quaddie today as think there looks to be some value, although it means doubling up on some of our bets. Even though we have the 4-FLYING AWARD as best win bet of the day, it is an open field in the first leg so throw in the 6-BARTLEY, 9-SAVANNAH CLOUD, 8-AYSAR and 5-AMISH BOY as well to try and make sure we get on the scoreboard at least. The Fillies Prelude looks open but the 1-LETZBEGLAM on-speed, the 6-PERSONAL who was really good down the straight last start and the promising Adelaide visitor 4-INSTANT CELEBRITY look the main chances. Think it is worth throwing in one other runner in your quaddies in the Underwood away from the short priced favourite the 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT and that is where the value will come, so add in main danger the 8-HARBOUR VIEWS. Load of value in the last leg where the favourite the 9-JUNIPAL will be hard to beat, but the 12-EXASPERATE is a great value roughie as is the leader the 4-INVERLOCH who is very hard to run down when right.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 8-NONCONFORMIST at around $3.50
Very promising type and actually a horse we want to follow this spring. Ran on well 1st up, but 2nd up, up 300M, had a set back and missed a run so had a month off, and entering a tough competitive field here at the end of the day. Does have talent and capable of winning, but just think represents really poor value in this field. Probably worth noting three lay of the days have already won this spring, but we will keep putting them out there.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy a luxury yacht so we can sail to Queensland.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 5,8,10,11,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have landed a few decent quinellas this spring and really five horse box quinellas are a pretty easy way to go. We have already tipped the 8-TRIED AND TIRED as best roughie here, the 15-RICH HIPS is hard to beat and racing well, the 11-CLEAN ACHEEVA will go forward and might run a race at odds, the 5-JITTERY JACK will be better suited back on wet ground and will forgive the last run and the 10-POWER SCHEME has a bit of ability and could do something first up. Looks a messy betting race so letís try for a value quinella.
Race 1: 2-HOW WOMANTIC, 8-GOLDEN HALO, 7-PINYIN
Race 2: 8-TRIED AND TIRED, 15-RICH HIPS, 11-CLEAN ACHEEVA
Race 3: 16-GHODELEINE, 17-LORD BOUZERON, 7-SKYMAN
Race 4: 3-RUNSON, 4-CORUSCATE, 8-STREET ICON
Race 5: 7-WINDSTORM, 9-ADELAIDE ACE, 5-BUFFALO RIVER
Race 6: 4-FLYING AWARD, 6-BARTLEY, 9-SAVANNAH CLOUD
Race 7: 1-LETZBEGLAM, 6-PERSONAL, 4-INSTANT CELEBRITY
Race 8: 10-RUSSIAN CAMELOT, 8-HARBOUR VIEWS, 6-MR QUICKIE
Race 9: 12-EXASPERATE, 9-JUNIPAL, 4-INVERLOCH