FLEMINGTON : Stakes Day - 6th Nov 2004 Track: SLOW - Weather: Showers - Rail: OUT 6M Betting Portfolio ($100): Plenty of showers around and although this track has been recovering quickly during the week, doubt it has much left to give. Awful lot of persistent rain so expecting a genuinely slow track, probably even closer to heavy. Usually you want to be on the runners on on Stakes Day as the inside of the track cuts up (although there was a fast lane just a few horses off the inside on Thursday). Expecting them to come well off the fence and think twice about those who have drawn inside barriers and are going to get caught in the worse going. Just watch out though cause on a worn track with plenty of rain almost certain to be a very distinctive racing pattern. Down the straight the fastest part of the track was out past the middle on Thursday, and that should be the best going again. Its going to be fun to watch the 16 horses in the first race try and squeeze into the 3M space of the best going, much like the Sat afternoon squeeze for carparks at Chadstone. This meeting will probably get torn apart by scratchings, but still pretty keen to have a bet and there looks to be lots of nice value winners floating around. Doubling our normal stake this week and spreading our bets around a little. Best Win : Race 7: 8-GALLIC $11 WIN SCR $11 Best Each Way: Race 8: 6-MANAWA KING $20 EW *** very keen at odds *** 2nd W=$4.50, P=$2.50 = $50 Best Each Way: Race 1: 12-NUTS ABOUT JUGAH $5 EW Daily Double : (Races 6 / 8) : 2(scr),7,8,14,17,18 / 4(scr),5(scr),6,12(scr) x $1 = $24 (costs $5 with the scratchings) $19 1st 17-SKY CUDDLE W=$58.30, 2nd 8-LAD OF THE MANOR W=$6.00 / 2nd 6-MANAWA KING W=$4.50 *** We find the bolter in the first leg - and just nosed out in the 2nd of a $200 Daily Double !! *** Value quinella on the two boom apprentices in the main race : Quinella : Race 6 : 8,14 x $5 2nd 2nd 8-LAD OF THE MANOR W=$6.00 Best Rough : Race 9: 10-MODERN ERA $5 EW SCR $10 Spent : $100 Return : $90 Net : $-10 : AARRRGGHH...Scratching rips through the selections, but we find the super value winner in the main race - and just get nosed out with the best each way of the day MANAWA KING which would have covered the whole season ! The Tips: Race 1: 12-NUTS ABOUT JUGAH, 18-TRANSACT (emerg), 17-MIDNIGHT STORM (emerg), 6-LEONE CHIARA Race 2: 3-QUARTERMAN, 6-POINT MADE, 4-STRIKES BACK Race 3: 4-LIGHTNING COMMAND, 3-GALVANIZED, 12-UMBER Race 4: 5-ROKOCOKO, 3-KRASKY, 8-ROTATIONAL Race 5: 4-DANCE THE WAVES, 6-COVET THEE, 11-HOLDING Race 6: 8-LAD OF THE MANOR, 14-INFINITE GRACE, 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH Race 7: 8-GALLIC, 9-OUR SMOKING JOE, 4-PRETORIOUS Race 8: 6-MANAWA KING, 12-DANASRI, 4-ARENA VALADORA Race 9: 14-BOJACK, 10-MODERN ERA, 11-SHADOWMAKER RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 12-NUTS ABOUT JUGAH 18-TRANSACT SCR 6-LEONE CHIARA 1st W=$3.90 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 3-QUARTERMAN 6-POINT MADE 4-STRIKES BACK 3rd W=$7.10 RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 4-LIGHTNING COMMAND 3-GALVANIZED 12-UMBER RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 5-ROKOCOKO 3-KRASKY 8-ROTATIONAL SCR RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 4-DANCE THE WAVES 3rd W=$2.90 6-COVET THEE 11-HOLDING 1st W=$4.70 RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 8-LAD OF THE MANOR 2nd W=$6.00 14-INFINITE GRACE 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH SCR RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 8-GALLIC SCR 9-OUR SMOKING JOE 1st W=$2.00 4-PRETORIOUS SCR RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 6-MANAWA KING 2nd W=$4.30 12-DANASRI SCR 4-ARENA VALADORA SCR RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 14-BOJACK 3rd W=$5.50 10-MODERN ERA SCR 11-SHADOWMAKER 2nd W=$4.10 RACE 6: THE DIFFERENT SPONSOR EVERY YEAR STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 Tips: 8-LAD OF THE MANOR 2nd W=$6.00 14-INFINITE GRACE 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH SCR Others: 18, 17, 7 Pace: Leaders : 5-MISS POTENTIAL, 6-AMTRAK Handy : 1-GRAND ARMEE, 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE, 10-SILKY RED BOXER, 11-LORD MICK, 14-INFINITE GRACE, 19-TALL TIMBERS Back : 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH, 3-KING’S CHAPEL, 7-GREAT IS GREAT, 8-LAD OF THE MANOR, 12-ECONSUL, 13-LORD VOLKSRAAD, 15-BARELY A MOMENT, 16-SKEWIFF, 17-SKY CUDDLE, 18-SIR DEX Chances: 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH is a genuine tough customer who ran a huge race in the Cox Plate after a pretty soft preparation - get the impression they have been keeping him in cotton wool a little bit. Does meet the (1) 1.5kgs better off here after beating him home in the Cox Plate (even if that one was a little unlucky). A lot to like about him here - wet track should pose no problems and class galloper, drawn out to finish strongly down the middle of the track and that is what we want. Again might just find one down in the weights gets the better of him, but should be in the finish. Chance. SCR 7-GREAT IS GREAT has always shown a stack of potential and seems right on track to live up to that with last couple of runs after disappointing start to spring. Has learnt had to settle and finish off his races last couple which is going to be very useful in this race. Lightly raced, with good win strike rate and represents untapped potential with light weight in this. Probably a bit of a query on wet ground. Drawn out is a slight problem as usually does race towards the front, but does seem to have learnt how to switch off, so can drop back in this. First time at 1600M, but with his new racing style can’t see why he can run this out. Rough chance. 8-LAD OF THE MANOR is another up and comer on the way up with no weight in this. Drawn wide, but that should be no problem as can drop out and settle out the back of the field. Won 9 from 11 and still to miss a place. Ridden hard and forward at Caulfield with weight and came undone, and then absolutely stunning win in the Waterford Crystal last start - the leaders around the home turn filled the placings - whilst he came from last and went past the whole field in a flash. Handles it wet. Interestingly they have take off regular jockey to put on boom apprentice. Probably not the strongest race last start, but can’t get over how impressive the win was and he is the one we want to be on in this. 2nd W=$6.00 14-INFINITE GRACE is a very consistent on pacer who is probably going to get caught out wide on the speed from her barrier. Gets a very nice 4kgs weight turn around from the (5) from last week (beaten 3/4L) so should beat her home here today. Even better meets the (4) 3kgs better for just whisker from Caulfield. One of the few in this that genuinely loves it wet, very light weight, yet to be unplaced at the 1600M and placed 5 from 6 at Flem puts her right in this. Extremely well weighted in this. Boom apprentice on board probably due for big success. Probably would like to see her get some cover, as is she races on the speed out wide but is a genuine chance. 17-SKY CUDDLE is well drawn and ran a huge race from outside barrier last week on leader’s track. Gets nice weight drop from last couple of runs and should be fitter for 3 runs in and building up to a win. Strong finisher who could just provide the boilover in this. Class is the test, but genuine rough chance.1st 17-SKY CUDDLE W=$58.30 ** We push for the upset winner ! *** 18-SIR DEX raced forward last start against his normal racing pattern of dropping back. Should be ready to produce now with 3 runs off a long break and showed super finish to win on Derby Day here this track and distance last year. Likely to improve the most of the ones in the finish last start. Strong finisher and another genuine rough chance with no weight. Place: 1-GRAND ARMEE slaughtered them here last week in the Mackinnon where he was in a total different world to his opposition. Track did favour on pacers, and did not get any pressure in the lead, but this is how he runs his best races - dominating the speed and given nothing else a chance. Missed start slightly in Cox Plate and was unlucky on the day. Probably has to sit just off the speed here from a middle barrier, but that should mean he gets to the middle of the track and the best going. Handicap conditions in this is of course the query - can carry the weight, but the concern is more about having to give so much weight to the up and comers. *** We sack the favourite - who flops *** Slight concern is the wet going as well, can handle it, but noticeable that he was scratched from the Epsom to avoid the wet track - probably not quite at best in the going. Think those two factors together will see him in the finish, but getting nosed out by one or two on the day. This track is going to be very wet, and there are just so many solid chances down the bottom of the weights almost certain one of them will beat him. Prefer place. 3-KING’S CHAPEL has drawn very wide in this, but has been going along pretty well in his lead up runs. Did make some ground in the Cox Plate and fair effort in the Yalumba when only just behind them. Drop back to the 1600M here definitely suits as probably not quite running out the 2000M. Actually meets the (1) 2kgs better off from the Cox Plate (beaten 1.5L), 2.5kgs better off from the Yalumba (beaten 1.9L) and 3kgs better off from the George Main (beaten a whisker) so been nothing between them last 3 starts and weights today makes them even closer. Unfortunately though he doesn’t handle wet tracks, so place chance is best at the moment, elevating chances if track dries out for some reason. 11-LORD MICK ran a respectable race last start - does meet the (8) 1kgs better off. Well drawn and races handy so can get a nice sit on the considerable speed in this. Goes well on wet tracks and represents a value place chance in this. 16-SKEWIFF has been a new and improved mare this spring - form has been outstanding and never imagined she would be competitive in these sort of races as used to be a straight out sprinter. Absolutely slaughtered them here 3 starts back, then made good ground at Caulfield when gave the leaders too big a start. Was still making ground last start when again just got a little too far back. Another with a big weight drop into this (meets the (5) 4.5kgs better for 1.4L defeat last week). Barrier 1 is a problem as want to get out to the middle of the track, and don’t think she is quite at her best on wet tracks, despite having won on them in the past. That, along with 1600M probably being as far as she wants mean she has a few things stacked against her and is just a rough chance only. 3rd W=$14.50 Sacking: 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE has drawn the inside (not likely to be the place to be) and she does race on pace so likely to get caught in the worse part of the track. Bit of a bizarre choice to go for the Cox Plate, but win at Caulfield before that was excellent when held up for runs and showed some class to get up and win. Badly weighted against the (14) from that run though. Right in the finish in the Sydney feature mile before that on a similarly wet track. Handles it wet. Take out Cox Plate run and her form would be excellent for this. Still yet to win past 1400M and think you need a super tough miler to win this race - and think caught in the wrong part of the track she might just struggle to finish this off. Passing. 5-MISS POTENTIAL led them up and bought down the wonder filly here last week, when she did get to dictate terms in front, and doubt she is going to get that sort of run in this race. Does have wet track form, but ran a shocker in the Epsom under similar conditions. Badly weighted against the (14) and the (16) from last week. Can just see there being a lot of pressure up front in this race and want to be on the runners on - guessing she will be the first one beaten. Passing. 6-AMTRAK has been racing in great form and does seem one on the way up. Has been up the whole spring and you wonder how much is left in the tank. Handles it wet and does meet the (7) 1.5kgs better for last start defeat. Very consistent type who has only missed the place once in 10 starts. First time at the 1600M and that seems a bit problem to us as he doesn’t seem that strong at the end of his races. On pacer, drawn inside and likely to get caught in the worse going as well. Ready to risk in this. 9-ST BASIL is a well drawn, strong finisher and showed a return to form with eye catching finish in the Salinger here last week - was actually quite unlucky hooked out the back trying to get a run and probably should have been right in the finish. Flew past a lot of smart ones last week on a track that was favouring on pacers. Winner on a slow track, but doubt he is at his best on wet ground. Coming into this with just the 2 x 1200M runs in might find him struggling at the end of a tough 1600M and prepared to risk him in this. 10-SILKY RED BOXER hasn’t done much in this 2 runs in Australia and looks safely held based on that. 12-ECONSUL won the Caulfield Guineas easily when he did get a dream run through the field, and then did nothing in the sprint last week. Drawn out and form before feature win was just OK. Form from the Caulfield Guineas has been unimpressive to say the least and prepared to let him run. 13-LORD VOLKSRAAD has been consistently unlucky for several seasons now and now seems to have just moved onto being consistently bad. Did make some ground late last start, shocker at Caulfield start before. OK in the wet, but has had plenty of chances even when going much better. No 15-BARELY A MOMENT was very disappointing in the AAMI Vase and hit the lead with dream run in the Caulfield Guineas and still failed to hold on (suspect he was one run short). Form before that was fine, but the 3YO form has not really stacked up this year. Well drawn and strong finisher suited in this, but well known that he does not really handle wet tracks and going against him because of that. No 19-TALL TIMBERS has not lived up to the hype this time in and switched back to the shorter distances as a consolation. Has been thereabouts this time in, without really showing enough to consider in this. No Summary: Always a great betting race and seems a very high standard field this year with the established stars at the top of the weights and lots of promising up and comers down the bottom of the weights. Generally always want to be on the strong finishers in the feature miles which are normally run at a hectic pace in big fields, and track just about always favours runners on at the end of a busy week. Fascinating race, and very strong field this year. Suspect there will be a lot of speed in this -5-MISS POTENTIAL, 6-AMTRAK pushing forward, but then we have 1-GRAND ARMEE likely to be applying pressure along with 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE, 11-LORD MICK, 14-INFINITE GRACE. Definitely want to be on something finishing strongly out the middle of the track, and just think there are way too many up and coming horses at the bottom of the weights in this and one of them is going to run over the top of the stars up the top of the weights. So going for 8-LAD OF THE MANOR off super impressive win last week, but not much between him and the incredibly well weighted 14-INFINITE GRACE . The honest 2-FIELDS OF OMAGH should be thereabouts. Good rough chances to 17-SKY CUDDLE and 18-SIR DEX if they get a start. Could be a great news story with the potential of the two boom apprentices (Ryan, Shinn) fighting out this race. One to risk: 5-MISS POTENTIAL Roughie: 17-SKY CUDDLE 1st W=$58.30, 18-SIR DEX Results : Huge result ! We sum up the race correctly and the light weight chances swamp the finish. Mega value winner in SKY CUDDLE which we gave a solid chance to. LAD OF THE MANOR only beaten by his wide barrier, and SIR DEX was extremely unlucky blocked for runs over the last 100M. Made a killing on this race - hope you did to.

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