CAULFIELD : UNDERWOOD STAKES - 22nd Sept 2007 Track: GOOD - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE Betting Portfolio ($50): Few showers around, but there hasn’t been decent rain in Melbourne since we last got a quaddie, and believe me, that has been a very long time indeed. Track is currently rated DEAD (4), so should stay that rating or better. Rail is back to TRUE position here, having been out 7M and 10M last two meetings. In the good old days, you would often get an on pace bias for these feature Caulfield meetings when the rail went back to the TRUE position, but really think since the track was re-done a few years ago it races extremely evenly, and probably even slightly favours those running on. One of our favourite programs, and absolutely going cross eyed and drooling in excitement over these fields, which isn’t as inappropriate as it seems when you catch public transport a lot. Stacks of chances in most races, so maybe go wide with running doubles and the like and just play for some value results and big collects. Note that we have given 4 selections in Race 5 dependent on whether the boom winner from Weds goes around again, and also provided 4 selections in Races 3 and 7 depending on which race SEAFARER ends up getting a start in. BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 5-MISS JUDGEMENT $10 EW 1st W=$10.00, P=$3.40 = $134 This one ran very well 1st up, when crossed from outside barrier here and had to work to lead, found rails and kicked and fought on well in straight. Doesn’t normally lead, but hopefully goes forward again today - even though has drawn wide again there is not as much pace and a repeat run would put her right in the finish. RESULTS : Just lovely, burns across from an outside barrier, leads, kick on the turn, everything fall into plan as predicted and we lap up some lovely odds. BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 13-DOLPHIN JO $5 EW 3rd W=$32.00, P=$6.40 = $32 Pretty competitive race, and this one has had a few chances, but fitter for the 3 runs in, has had the 2000M run this time in, and was running on well last start against these. Probably going to get overlooked in a race with a few on the way up, but drawn inside and can get a great run just behind the leaders in this. RESULTS : Does find one or two of these a bit too smart, but as we hoped, gets a cosy run just behind the speed, and fights on well for a place at nice odds. BEST EACH WAY : Race 1: 6-LISTEN HERE $5EW Take the easy option and have a bet in the smallest field of the day, this one is fit and going along well, should sit just off them and run over the top. Quite keen. RESULTS : Gets caught in speed battle and stops very quickly BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 14-BEAMING BELLA $2.50 EW Looks like she is going to start rank outsider in this field. Still a maiden, and this is a strong field, but the 3YO form is a little topsy turvy, she got shuffled back and had to swing around the whole field and come down the outside last run and still made ground. Lack of pace in this race probably not going to help, and might be one you want to back over further, so keep an eye out for her even if she does not pop up today. RESULTS : Not too far off them, runs 5th at W=$44.70, and gives her backers a bit of a thrill as she positions mid field and starts to run into it on the home turn. Worth following over more ground TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. FLEX TRIFECTA : Race 4 : 8 / 5,7,14 / 2,5,7,9,10,14 x $5 = 33.33% Top pick in Race 4 : 8-CHINCHILLA ROSE was hopelessly unlucky last start, being shuffled back along the rails down the straight. Both runs this time in have been excellent, and just needs a bit of speed here to run over the top of them. Should be plenty of value in the trifecta (especially with our roughie 14-BEAMING BELLA) so take a wide trifecta with the top pick one out to win. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $166 NET : $+116 RESULTS : Very tidy $118 profit and nice day at the office. The Tips: Race 1: 6-LISTEN HERE, 7-CONFIDENCE REEF, 3-ALLERVITE Race 2: 13-BLUE GROUSE, 10-JOEY JO JO, 1-PERMAISCUOUS Race 3: 15-SEAFARER, 12-WAS THAT YOU, 7-AMYJANE POWER, 11-STANZOUT Race 4: 8-CHINCHILLA ROSE, 7-BANTRY BAY, 14-BEAMING BELLA Race 5: 10-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 7-MARCHING, 6-PURREALIST, 11-GRAN SASSO Race 6: 11-MISS FINLAND, 3-MARASCO, 2-BLUTIGEROO Race 7: 9-BON HOFFA, 14-DR NIPANDTUCK, 19-SEAFARER (emerg), 1-UNDUE Race 8: 5-MISS JUDGEMENT, 11-JUSTE MOMENTE, 10-ZIPANESE Race 9: 13-DOLPHIN JO, 17-RED LORD (emerg), 4-MALDIVIAN, 15-THE FUZZ RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 6-LISTEN HERE 7-CONFIDENCE REEF 3-ALLERVITE 3rd W=$15.20 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 13-BLUE GROUSE 10-JOEY JO JO 1-PERMAISCUOUS RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 12-WAS THAT YOU 7-AMYJANE POWER 3rd W=$17.60 11-STANZOUT 2nd W=$2.30 RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 8-CHINCHILLA ROSE 7-BANTRY BAY 14-BEAMING BELLA RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 7-MARCHING 2nd W=$4.40 6-PURREALIST 1st W=$5.30 11-GRAN SASSO Quinella : $10.80 RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 11-MISS FINLAND 2nd W=$2.00 3-MARASCO 3rd W=$2.50 2-BLUTIGEROO RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 9-BON HOFFA 1st W=$3.90 14-DR NIPANDTUCK 19-SEAFARER RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 5-MISS JUDGEMENT 1st W=$10.00 *** BEST BET OF DAY *** 11-JUSTE MOMENTE 2nd W=$13.20 10-ZIPANESE Quinella : $68.20 *** Just lovely - THANKS ! *** RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 13-DOLPHIN JO 3rd W=$32.00, P=$6.40 *** BEST EACH WAY OF DAY *** 17-RED LORD 4-MALDIVIAN 2nd W=$2.60 RACE 6: UNDERWOOD STAKES 1800M GROUP 1 WFA Tips: 11-MISS FINLAND 2nd W=$2.00 3-MARASCO 3rd W=$2.50 2-BLUTIGEROO Others: 13,12 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 6-ROAD WORKER, 9-DANE EMPIRE Handy : 3-MARASCO, 8-RUBISCENT, 11-MISS FINLAND, 13-MASLINS BEACH Back : 1-TAWQEET, 2-BLUTIGEROO, 4-MAYBE BETTER, 5-KING OF ASHFORD, 7-ANNENKOV , 10-MASTERCRAFT, 12-ESKIMO QUEEN Chances: 2-BLUTIGEROO is going along OK, but have to admit, being our favourite horse, we did have higher expectations and really hasn’t been competitive yet this time in. Obviously better suited when he gets back in an handicap, but would’ve thought he would’ve run on into the finish in one of these WFA races by now. Usually does take a few runs to find form each time in, so would really want him to do something today. Actually have a feeling he might – up in distance, had the 3 runs in, and not sure the opposition apart from the main two is that strong. Rough chance. 3-MARASCO finally got the monkey off his back last start (and that’s a reference to him finally winning, not a comment about his former jockey). Race fit, had 3 runs in, means he is ahead in race fitness on most of his opposition here. Jockey change obviously helped, as did Flem, back to Caulfield today and interesting to see where he positions from this barrier – interesting that he sat off APACHE CAT and tracked him into the race last start – racing a lot more forward than usual. Did drop well back in Caulf Autumn runs, which means he needs luck. Might have turned the corner and could go on with it today. Ridden confidently last start was always going to run down his rival, and might do the same today. Strong chance. 3rd W=$2.50 11-MISS FINLAND was the dominant (and extra extra dominant) 3YO filly of last season, and so often they don’t go on as 4YO into open class, but she is looking like the exception. Solid win 1st up when raced wide, and plus with her is that she makes her own luck – she gets up and running and puts herself into the race – so many of her rivals need luck, rather than make it. Looks like she is going to go on with it, and could be the dominant horse this spring. Is 2nd up and up 400M and her main rival has a few more runs under his belt, but just think she is a better horse and that class is going to show through. One to beat.2nd W=$2.00 12-ESKIMO QUEEN was an eye catcher coming flying home last start at Flem 1st up. Lightly raced so is totally untapped ability and could easily go on with it. Probably prefer to see her in this class, and probably drops back a little in this and gives some good ones a head start. Little concern as obvious 3rd pick she starts under value as everyone looks for the obvious other one to back. Rough chance. 13-MASLINS BEACH is fitter for the 2 runs in, but up another 200M here today. Bit of a spruik on this one, and interesting that they went to this race today. Solid effort 1st up, then not disgraced with big step up in distance 2nd up when couldn’t get a run around the home turn. Can race forward and would be good to see her take up a position in this with only a few other on pacers. As far as something that is actually possible of causing an upset today, think this is the one, unknown quantity on the way up and if she sits handy she could go early and almost pinch this. Solid rough chance. Place: 4-MAYBE BETTER is grinding along OK and every step up in distance helps. Not too far off them in lead up runs and will poke into the placings in one of these races somewhere over the spring before returning to his real job in the handicaps. Think he would want a fast pace which looks unlikely today. Place. 8-RUBISCENT has a bit of a spruik on him, but not sure exactly how great he is. Was unlucky last start when got badly blocked for runs, but not sure he would’ve won even if the did get clear. Form looks good through 2nd place getter from start before that, but did feel he was dying on his run that day. Interestingly, was beaten by the (9) here in Feb. Race fit and in form and should be able to sit fairly forward in this race, but make sure you get the odds you should if you are interested. Place chance. 1st W=$54.60 9-DANE EMPIRE is as tough on pace stayer when right, and does go well here. Fitter for 3 runs in, got to dictate speed and won accordingly here 2 starts back, then gave in quickly here last start in a race that was dominated by swoopers. Looks like he gets a soft lead here and could kick and look a danger in the straight, but don’t get too excited, think he gets run down. Place. Sacking: 1-TAWQEET is 2nd up, and was pretty disappointing 1st up at Flem. Does go well here, but obviously some question mark over how is going, so have to leave out today. 5-KING OF ASHFORD is 2nd up and didn’t do anything 1st up when actually started favourite. 2nd up and up 400M is an ask, does go well here, but need to wait till we see some form. No 6-ROAD WORKER is going along well in Adel, and at least is race fit and in form. Leader, and should get to bowl along OK here with only one other pace setter in this. Form is solid, and is a consistent type who has won over this distance before, but you would think the rise in class today is going to test – will probably look a chance ½ down the straight but get swamped. No 7-ANNENKOV is fitter for the 2 runs in and went along OK last start at Flem. Import, and refuse to go anywhere near these till they show some real form, so not for us. 10-MASTERCRAFT is coming off a Bendigo Class 2 win, which to us, does look like a wee bit of an increase in class. Lightly raced and showing some ability, but way out of depth here. No Summary: Probably not as strong a field as previous years, obviously looks a race in two between 11-MISS FINLAND and 3-MARASCO and with both starting very short not sure there is much interest from a betting point of view. Pace here should be even, without being overly fast, only on pacers are 6-ROAD WORKER, 9-DANE EMPIRE and they should run them along at their own tempo. Suspect on of these will kick on the home turn and give their backers a flutter of excitement, but will be run down. 11-MISS FINLAND does look like she could be the dominant horse this spring, and we haven’t had a truly stand out dominant horse for a few years now. Always worry a little bit about being 2nd up and up 400M and think that if 3-MARASCO is going to beat her this spring then today would probably be the day, with him having the extra edge in race fitness. But going to stick with the class, as think she is the better horse. Throwing 2-BLUTIGEROO for the placings, cause just think he is due to do something, and does usually take a few runs to come good. The roughie to watch out for though is 13-MASLINS BEACH who might sit just behind the speed and run a race. One to risk: 8-RUBISCENT 1st W=$54.60 Roughie: 13-MASLINS BEACH RESULTS : Ooops a daisy. That's kinda embarassing. How brave are we to talk down the odds of a 50-1 shot? How foolish do we look when that horse then gets up and causes the boilover of the season? Actually had previously thought 8-RUBISCENT was a little over rated, not actually sure he would've won his lead up run when badly blocked for runs, and wondered if he might struggle to run out a strong 1800M as did seem to be dying on his run at the end of the previous 1600M win. But just goes to show, WFA races are winnable with fit, in form handicappers, most of the field are badly out of form or just using the race as warm up runs. Still thought 11-MISS FINLAND was excellent, making so much ground, but the bubble has definitely poppped on 3-MARASCO. RACE 7: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M Tips: 9-BON HOFFA 1st W=$3.90 14-DR NIPANDTUCK 19-SEAFARER (emerg) 1-UNDUE Others: 2,7,6,10,18 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 5-JOKERS WILD, 10-MONET RULES Handy : 6-ORANGE COUNTY, 7-HERE DE ANGELS, 9-BON HOFFA, 11-FLASH TRICK, 16-BLAHNIK, 17-MURTAJILL, 19-SEAFARER, 21-ECLAIR PASSION Back : 1-UNDUE, 2-NICONERO, 3-WONDERFUL WORLD, 4-DIVINE MADONNA, 8-SASSBEE, 12-ANAMATO, 13-AT THE OASIS, 14-DR NIPANDTUCK, 15-BIRD DANCER, 18-OKAY OKY, 20-KELTAH Chances: 1-UNDUE is just about one of the best horses in Australia at the moment. Form over the last 12 months has been excellent, winning Doomben 10,000 and Oakleigh Plate and always competitive at top level. Both runs this time in have been excellent as well, tough win with big weight 1st up, and nothing wrong with effort last week in Manikato when the barrier 1 was always going to be an issue ,and once he got clear wasn’t far off. Does need it dry. Goes extremely well here, won twice and placed four from five. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in too, although does step up the 200M today. Actually has yet to win past 1350M, although only try at this distance ran close up 3rd in this same race last year carrying 53.5kgs, and his lead up form this year is actually better. Has drawn out in a big field, but not too bothered about barriers with this guy, prefer him drawn out, and he does seem to be able to run up and put himself into the finish before the home turn. Has to go in as a strong chance. 2-NICONERO is a useful type in these sort of races and he does seem to have been around forever. Another who does go well here. Fitter for the 2 runs in and like the fact that he has the 1400M run under his belt going into this. Was actually noticeable making good ground at WFA last start. Does like a strong pace on, as is a strong finisher, pace should be genuine enough today and he is well drawn to get a clear crack at them. Is better at finding trouble than end of season footballers, and this is usually one of the roughest races of the spring, so he is a prime candidate. Does have a habit of being in the finish in these sort of races, so has to be respected, and goes in as a rough chance. 2nd W=$16.50 6-ORANGE COUNTY is going along nicely and steps up to a stiffer test here today. Should be at peak now with 3 runs in and solid effort last start when ridden more forward then usual and risked being unstuck by tear away on pacer. 4 times winner this distance, and twice at this track. Have a feeling he prefers just a little give in the ground, so would prefer the track to stay Dead. Perfectly drawn and should be able to sit just behind the speed in this and put himself into the race. Fit, in form, well drawn, last start winner, has to go in as a solid chance, have slight reservations about him having the class to win this. 7-HERE DE ANGELS finally tasted defeat last start to end his unbeaten career. Did show a little bit of fight, looming up like he was going to be in the finish, but did fade. Some talk that the rails (where he was) were off last week at MV, so that run might be partially excusable. Solid win here before that sitting off fast speed. 3rd up and up 200M and it is the 1400M today that is the real test. 1st try at the distance, and not sure if he is just a straight out sprinter who only just gets 1200M. Drawn out a little and think he is going to get a good sit on the speed here. Wouldn’t be surprised if he kicks to the lead ½ way down the straight. Has started even money favourite at just about every run so far, the odds on offer today are going to be a career record, so think he is worth considering. Chance. 9-BON HOFFA is absolutely flying and looks the one to beat here. Fitter for 2 runs in and both have been wins that were full of merit. Swooped wide off a fast pace 1st up here, then really liked the way he seemed to be extending away from them at the finish last start at Flem. Drawn an inside barrier and would like to see him up just behind the speed here as this race often contains hard luck stories. Showed in the Autumn he can race closer to the speed, and over further today should be able to position forward. Does pay the price for winning in terms of weights against those coming through last run. Does look the one to beat, but would want odds that reflect the size of the field and ability of his opposition today. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.90 14-DR NIPANDTUCK really seems to have turned the corner and thought last 2 runs were fantastic. Was finishing all over the top of the best sprinters here 2 starts back – just wouldn’t go straight, and coming home with a rush again last start at Group 1 WFA. Best form is over the 1400M – placed 5 from 6. Definitely at best on wet ground, but has run well last 2 on dry as well. Put in a great series of runs in mid 2006 and showed a lot of potential, form has been just OK since then, but really seems to have got back to best last 6 months – now run 6 placings in a row. Interesting to see how they ride him from barrier 1 – you would think dropping back here is going to be asking for trouble, interesting to note that in 2 x 1400M placings over winter he actually raced on the speed. Probably is a better horse ridden back though. Just looks well weighted here, gets a whopping 5kgs from the (1) who he beat home last start, and will start better odds. Definite chance. 18-OKAY OKY is one we have a bit of time for, and no surprise to seem him darting home strongly through the field 1st up. 2nd up and up 300M into this is a bit of a challenge, but is extremely well weighted from that run, meeting the (1) 5kgs better and the (6) 3.5kgs better. Yet to be unplaced in 4 tries this distance. Does drop back and need a decent pace on, from a middle barrier today would be nice to see him sitting around midfield. If you want a roughie to throw into the mix think he is the one, weights and form look good and we have yet to see the best of this one. Rough chance. 19-SEAFARER is a lightly raced one who created a huge impression winning last start. Awful lot to like if he gets a start, lightly raced, on the way up, fitter for 2 runs in, had the run over the 1400M, drawn well, sits on the speed. Definitely goes in as a chance if gains a run. Place: 4-DIVINE MADONNA has one of the best finishing bursts in Australia. Dry track suits and extremely wide barrier not really an issue as does like to drop out and finish over the top of them. 2nd up here and up 200M. Loomed up 1st up, and does meet the (9) a handy 3kgs better off from last start. Not sure she is at her best at this track, prefer her somewhere larger like Flem. Also not sure, despite the big field, they are going to go quick enough for her in this race. Suspect she will get out and wind up, but be running on behind the placings when it is all over. Too good to rule out, but probably prefer to give her a miss today. Place only. 10-MONET RULES has a pretty tough run out wide in the Manikato. Got a very soft lead for an over flattering all the way win before that on preferable wet ground. Chances would definitely improve with rain. Has a pretty impressive win strike rate. Again, it’s the 1400M here today that could be the issue. However, think he might get a good run in this, sitting wide, but on the speed, so will put himself into this at the top of the straight. Last bit is the question though, especially in this class on a dry track. Throw in as a rough chance at some odds. 15-BIRD DANCER has been racing very consistently – placed 7 of last 9. Always drops a fair way back, so does need a bit of luck, and large field today will make that an extra bit difficult. Snuck up on the inside of the (6) last start and almost pinched it, form has been good in races where the fields have either been small or haven’t been the strongest. Consistent when right and is often running on in these sort of races. Worth throwing into multiples for a placing to add some value, but place is best against this lot. Sacking: 3-WONDERFUL WORLD is back to Caulfield, the only place he has shown any form for a while. Must like the pies here or something. Was something special in this two wins here last spring, but hasn’t really shown anything in this two runs back this time in. Should be better suited today, but drawn inside and likely to drop well back and need a stack of luck. Had almost a year break since last spring, and really not interested till he shows some form. No 3rd W=$12.70 5-JOKERS WILD is an on pacer who has drawn a dead set horror barrier here. Very well travelled racing in VIC/SA/NSW and NZ over the last year. OK effort 1st up when not too far off them in NZ Group 1 1400M. Best remembered for run here back in Autumn Guineas when got up on the inside of MISS FINLAND and looked like he was going to upstage her. Does look an dead set on pacer, so has to either stay out wide on the speed or work really hard to find the fence. Just looks too tough at this stage. No 8-SASSBEE is coming off an Adel listed win with a big weight. Fitter for the 3 runs in and the run over the distance appeals. Probably drifts back a little in this. Consistent type, and form is OK, just feel this class is a little hot for him so passing. 11-FLASH TRICK ran a nice race at odds 1st up down the straight on unsuitable dry ground, and meets the (9) 2.5 kgs better from that run. 2nd up and up 200M. Another who has drawn a bad barrier and think that poses a problem here – best runs are sitting forward just off the speed, and is going to get caught very wide here if he does that. Else drop well back and hope for luck. Chances increase with any rain. Has proven himself in these sort of races before, but ready to risk him today, even with good 1st up run. 12-ANAMATO lived in her stable mates shadow most of her career, but is pretty handy type. Tough type who does answer a challenge and does go well here. Amazing performance to go to the US and run well, that was only 2 months ago, so probably still has plenty of duty free booze still in stock. Drawn out, and suspect drops well back here. Impossible to know how she is going to go 1st up, really best to watch the market, but these overseas trips can take a lot out of horses, so prefer to see how she goes here today. 13-AT THE OASIS is 2nd up coming off an upset 1st up win against a short priced favourite. 2nd up and up 200M. Handy miler on his day, but does get well back in his races and from an insider barrier is going to have nowhere to go. Looks way out of depth in this. No 16-BLAHNIK is an Adel visitor fitter for the 2 runs in. 1st up beat home VORMISTA, so that form line looks strong, Did come over last spring, but showed no form, but does look to be going better this time in. Yet to place in 3 starts here, and probably prefer him to show something in Melbourne before being an realistic betting option. No 17-MURTAJILL is a boom 3YO who really hasn’t lived up to the hype this time in. Do need to be wary of the front running 3YOs with no weight in this race, 4 x 3YOs have won this race in the last 10 years. However, they have all been coming off last start wins, and to be honest, this one just doesn’t seem to be going well enough at all. Started short priced favourite when struck a little trouble 1st up, but not enough to excuse the run, and didn’t show much last start. Up to the 1400M here is a concern also. Drawn wide and generally races forward so going to have to work a lot. Doesn’t seem to be going well enough at all. No 20-KELTAH is an Adel visitor, drawn out who has a handy win/place strike rate. Placed last 8 starts, but barrier and class likely to be a real test in this and passing. 21-ECLAIR PASSION went down a short priced favourite 1st up. 2nd up and up 200M is always a bit of an ask, but is well drawn and does like to race on the speed. Probably some rough chance if gets a run with the light weight, but assuming at the moment won’t make the field. Summary: This race is always hotly contested, huge field, so likely to be big multiples for those who are brave enough to have a stab. Often with the big field there is a lot of interference in this race, especially those trying to get runs along the rails. This is a quality race though, and as difficult as it is to line all these up, think it is worth remembering that 6 out of the last 8 winners won their lead up run going into this – it’s a hot contest, and you need to be in peak of form to win it. Pace here should be genuine, big field usually means they go along quickly, 5-JOKERS WILD and 10-MONET RULES will have to try and cross from outside barriers, but not all that much pace inside them. A lot depends on whether the two emergencies get a run - 19-SEAFARER, 21-ECLAIR PASSION both can go forward from inside barriers and increase the temp in this race. Sticking with the winning form here and that is 9-BON HOFFA, last start win was very impressive – would prefer if he was drawn out a little further though as could get stuck on inside rail. Just as keen on 14-DR NIPANDTUCK who is in peak form, if he had drawn out would have been a clear top pick in this – no idea where they go from barrier 1. 19-SEAFARER the emergency to watch out for, is going to get perfect on pace run in this if gets into the field, and 1-UNDUE should be in the finish again. Best of the roughies is 2-NICONERO who is drawn out to get a clear run, and often bobs up in those sort of races, absolutely not a horse we follow, but punting senses are tingling that he is well placed to do something today. Extremely tough race as always. One to risk: 17-MURTAJILL Roughie: 2-NICONERO , 18-OKAY OKY 2nd W=$16.50, P=$4.50 RESULTS : Actually summed a pretty tough race up pretty accurately. 9-BON HOFFA goes on his winning way, and shows the importance of being in career best form going into this race - was just a matter of him getting a clear run. The roughie 2-NICONERO pops his head into the finish of one of these feature 1400M/1600M races again. 7-HERE DE ANGELS kicks to the lead 1/2 way down the straight (as predicted) but gets run down, and 4-DIVINE MADONNA runs on too far behind the place getters (as predicted).

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