CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 10th OCT 2009 Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLEAR - Rail: TRUE Betting Portfolio ($100): The racing purists can tell you how Derby Day is the best racing day of the year, but personally Caulfield Guineas is our favourite meeting. Between the MV races Fri night, the Caulfield Guineas meeting on the Saturday and the Cranbourne Cup on the Sunday it’s about the best punting weekend on the calendar. Been topsy-turvy weather this week in Melbourne, lovely sunshine one minute, squalls and hail the next. Weather is supposed to be clear going into Saturday, and track has already improved to GOOD. Rail is TRUE here, was out 14M last time. Caulfield is just about the fairest racing surface in Melbourne these days so expect fair racing all round. Fantastic program with intriguing main race with lots of up and comers, plus a capacity Toorak field. Sure to be value about whichever ones you like, so think multiple win bets on your picks in each race is the betting plan for today. Lots to bet on and lots of free bets to use up so doubling the Betting Portfolio to $100 again. RESULTS : Fantastic days racing and plenty of healthy dividends. Track is on the firmer side, and races evenly, probably just tending towards on pacers. Most winners lead or make runs close to the rail, very hard to make ground more than 2-3 horses out. Betting Portfolio bombs out, but plenty of nice winners in the tips. BEST WIN : Race 7: 6-TRUSTING $20 WIN Lots of potential stars going into the feature, but still pretty keen on this one. Always want to get on the strongest finisher from the Guineas Prelude, and the one dropping in weight and he ticks both those boxes. Really flew home in that race, extra 200M should suit and the runners on often win this race. Suspect he will fly down the middle over the top of them. Keen to bet. RESULTS : Not suited by on pacers tracks, but does nothing anyway. BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 5-CAPECOVER $20 EW Fitter for the 4 runs in and ready to win. Here 2 starts back was finishing on nicely, then last start at MV dropped out last from inside barrier, help up for runs, still was at tail of field on home turn and flew home – misjudged ride by jockey. Jockey has already said going to ride him more forward today from another inside barrier. Should have a lot of improvement having had the 2500M run this time in, most of these are still stepping up in distance and has some class about him – won the Queen Elizabeth last spring and probably should’ve won the SAAB Quality as well. Tough race and big field but good each way bet. RESULTS : Does nothing BEST WIN : Race 2: 7-LA ROCKET, 12-NINE TALES $7.50 (SCR) WIN $7.50 Have something on both of these in an even 2nd race, the (7) should get the lead here, is a bit of pressure up front, but wants the firm going which he is going to get. Hard to run down when leading on dry tracks. The (12) is fitter for the 2 runs in and has loomed up in previous runs and think he is ready to win. Both at nice odds. RESULTS : The (7) doesn't lead, threatens on home turn but dies on run. The (12) is SCR and runs the day after at Cranbourne and wins. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 15-CLOCKED $5 EW Focus is going to be on the two stand out favourites in this race the (2) and (4), and one of them probably wins. However, suspect the rest of the field are going to get out to generous odds, this one had no luck at MV 2 starts back, then fair effort when led and kicked in straight here last start over 1400M. Drop back in distance probably suits and should sit just behind plenty of speed here from inside barrier so might poke through into the finish at big odds. RESULTS : Does nothing QUINELLA : Race 6 : 8-RAHEEB # 2,5,7,13,16 x $2 = $10 In a tough even Toorak 8-RAHEEB looks the safest way to go, will make his own luck on the speed and like the way he extended away from them last start. There will be value in the quinella, so anchor him and throw in some roughies and hope for a result. RESULTS : Leads most of the way and just dies on his run in the last 50M when swamped. Suspect he doesn't run a strong 1600M. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5: 6-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.90 Probably a bit ambitious taking on the favourite in the WFA feature who is just about the best horse in Australia at the moment, but still not totally convinced he is going to step up to take that title. Drops back, needs luck, small field will at least mean he gets clear run, but not much speed in this and this race has had a horror stretch for short priced favourites over the last 5 years for that exact reason. Tends to start very short on the tote (suspect he will come up around $2.20), the (7) in this beat him home here last start under the same conditions and is going to start better odds. Just thought he was entitled to run over the top of them last start and he didn’t. Almost certainly in the placings, just not quite convinced that he is the stand out WFAer in a year that they have been very even. RESULTS : Yes it was very ambitious and 6-WHOBEGOTYOU thumbs his nose at us as he cruises to victory. Still think it was worth a shot - great ride by the jockey won the race, poor ride on this main competition. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA : Race 5: 5-BAUGHURST, 7-HEART OF DREAMS x $5 2nd 7-HEART OF DREAMS W=$3.60 Let’s take the cheeky quinella in the WFA race and hope the leader pinches it and the favourite flops. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $7.50 NET : $-92.50 The Tips: Race 1: 7-KING PULSE, 5-ORINOCO, 1-RUSSIAN HEART Race 2: 7-LA ROCKET, 12-NINE TALES, 6-ARCH SYMBOL Race 3: 2-ROSTOVA, 4-AVENUE, 15-CLOCKED Race 4: 7-MORGAN DOLLAR, 3-LUCKY SECRET, 11-WANTED Race 5: 5-BAUGHURST, 7-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-WHOBEGOTYOU Race 6: 8-RAHEEB, 2-BLACK PIRANHA, 7-CHASM Race 7: 6-TRUSTING, 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER, 7-SO YOU THINK Race 8: 5-CAPECOVER, 4-YOUNG CENTAUR, 13-SHOCKING Race 9: 14-OUR LONA, 9-TOOTSIE, 16-ABOUT READY RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 7-KING PULSE 1st W=$2.70 5-ORINOCO 1-RUSSIAN HEART RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 7-LA ROCKET 12-NINE TALES SCR 6-ARCH SYMBOL RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 2-ROSTOVA 4-AVENUE 1st W=$2.30 15-CLOCKED RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 7-MORGAN DOLLAR 3-LUCKY SECRET 1st W=$4.50 11-WANTED 3rd W=$4.80 RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 5-BAUGHURST 7-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$3.60 6-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.90 Quinella : $1.90 *** woo hoo *** RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 8-RAHEEB 2-BLACK PIRANHA 7-CHASM RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 6-TRUSTING 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER 1st W=$12.60 *** we find the one in the Guineas most forgot about *** 7-SO YOU THINK RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 5-CAPECOVER 4-YOUNG CENTAUR 13-SHOCKING 2nd W=$4.30 RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 14-OUR LONA 1st W=$30.70 *** HELLO ! How is that for a last race get out bet ?? *** 9-TOOTSIE 2nd W=$7.40 16-ABOUT READY Quinella : $108.20 *** rather nice way to end the day *** Daily Double : Races 7,9 : 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER / 14-OUR LONA = $345.20 RACE 5: YALUMBA STAKES 2000M GROUP 1 WFA Tips: 5-BAUGHURST 7-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$3.60 6-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.90 Quinella : $1.90 *** woo hoo *** Others: 3,1 Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders : 5-BAUGHURST Handy : 2-VISION AND POWER, 4-DOURO VALLEY, 7-HEART OF DREAMS, 8-ZARITA Back : 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 3-NOM DU JEU, 6-WHOBEGOTYOU Chances: 3-NOM DU JEU is on a cups path and put in a huge run in last year’s Caulfield Cup to come from miles back to run 2nd. Been lightly raced since then and obviously they are having a serious crack at the Cups again this year. Fitter for the 2 runs in and good run last start on bog track when took a while to get warm but was winding up with gusto at the end of the race. Placed 4 from 5 at the 2000M. Really does drop a long way out of his ground though so would want a solid tempo in this which is unlikely. More a staying type. Rough. 5-BAUGHURST is a tough honest stayer on his day, who had a bumper spring 2008, but since then has been sticking to the top class WFA races and probably struggling just a little bit. Fitter for the 4 runs in and looks ready to do something now. Wasn’t far off them at Flem last start when didn’t get much room at all over the last 100M so probably a little unlucky – did race on speed and on pacers were favoured that day though. Exposed when went forward wide and early start before at that Caulf. He can probably go forward here and get a pretty easy lead. This is probably his best chance to win at WFA, small field, he can dictate the pace and think he is about ready to show something. Rough chance. 6-WHOBEGOTYOU is one we are still not quite sure about. Is he going to be an out and out champion, step up and take the title of Best Horse in Australia (which is currently vacant), or is he going to continue to run frustrating placings ? Faced his D day at MV in the Feehan and stepped up – had absolutely everything in his favour that day, blinkers on, MV, up in distance and really like the way he extended and ran into the race – looked like he had turned the corner and was going to go on with it. Then last start he was beaten here in a crowded finish, wasn’t beaten by much, but just felt like he had every chance and if he was really that good he should have just finished over the top of them ? Guess he was backing up, and wasn’t beaten that much, but still ? Small field and no speed doesn’t suit, needs speed on. Big plus is Oliver is back on board – he was on board in the Feehan when we saw a different horse. Is he just a miler and a bit flat over these longer trips? Not sure. Is going to start pretty short here and really should win if he is the horse he is supposed to be. Strong chance, not sure want to go backing him today at short odds though. 1st W=$1.90 7-HEART OF DREAMS proved his doubters (including his trainer) wrong last start when he showed he could be a WFA distance winner – else he was heading back to the handicap miles. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has finished on nicely in all of them and is doing everything right this time in. Did get good cover and run at the right time in the Underwood. That was 1800M, was a bit sceptical about him over the longer trips – still some doubt – the 2000M today will answer the question definitely. There is a chance he is on the up and can go on with it. Did beat home the (6) last start and still isn’t going to start favourite today. In small field he can sit just off the speed, he will probably be ahead of the (6), probably not going to be a true 2000M staying test so think he has a lot of things in his favour today. Actually probably prefer to be on him rather the (6) who is favourite. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.60 Place: 1-MASTER O'REILLY had a bit of a temperature last week so couldn’t come out and play. Strong finisher who tends to flash home more often than not in WFA races these days. Both runs this time in have been excellent, flew home at Flem and was working home nicely 2nd up along the rails in the Underwood when wasn’t beaten far. Hasn’t won a race in 14 starts since his 2007 Caulfield Cup win. Guess it really depends how big of a set back he had last week. Backmarker who prefers speed on and there seems to be no speed in the race at all. But think he is going along OK, should be fitter now and can run over the top of them on his best. Rough chance.4th W=$11.20 8-ZARITA finally got back in the winners circle with very determined win at MV 2 starts ago. Flopped badly here in the Underwood, but did pull up lame on the firm track. Watch how firm track gets here today – she really needs some give to show best. Jockey has claimed he has found the trick to her now as she was a long time out of the winner’s stall (but was competing in the top class races). The trick might be she needs it weaker !. Small field can cause upsets so wouldn’t rule her out but do find her a little hard to follow. Prefer place. Sacking: 2-VISION AND POWER found an absolute purple patch of form over the Syd autumn when he managed to win 6 races. Wining 6 races in a career is plenty for most horses, 6 in one season is pretty tidy work indeed. 4 runs this time in and hasn’t really shown that much, been thereabouts but hasn’t really threatened. Is probably much better on a wet track. Can race handy if required and in a small field here probably sits up on the speed. Not sure this field is all that great so guess some small chance, but prefer to wait till he shows some more form. Maybe rough chance if track ends up with genuine give in it. Passing. 4th W=$18.90 4-DOURO VALLEY is a genuine stayer on his day, not really suited at WFA, but did win this race last year in a small field when jockey took the initiative, sent him to the lead and pinched it at long odds. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but hasn’t done much in either – form coming into win in this race last year wasn’t much better though. Drier the better for this one. Even though he won this race last year don’t think he is going well enough at the moment and have to pass till he shows some form. Summary: Often get a small field in this race and often get a short priced favourite. The favourites did have a pretty good record during the 1990s, but there have been quite a few shorties go down in this race last 5 years or so . 2008 - POMPEII RULER 2nd at W=$2.10 on the tote 2007 – MISS FINLAND 2nd at W=$1.50 2006 – EL SEGUNDO 3rd at W=$1.40 2004 – STARCRAFT 3rd at W=$2.40 Ouch ! Then look at the winners : 2008 – DOURO VALLEY – led 2007 – MALDIVIAN – led 2006 – CASUAL PASS – sat behind leader and got up on inside? 2004 – MUMMIFY – led. Anyone see a pattern? Small field, no speed, think 5-BAUGHURST is the most obvious leader here. Probably 2-VISION AND POWER, 4-DOURO VALLEY sitting just behind him. There has been nothing between the WFAers this year and they have been taking it in turns to win races, and often they have been blanket finishes. For us jury is still out on 6-WHOBEGOTYOU, probably is the best horse in Australia at the moment, but really needs to go on and take that extra step – he may just be another in a very even bunch. Considering this race has claimed some pretty big scalps in the last couple of years, and they were probably going better than him think that is cause for concern. Not keen to back the favourite, (especially not < $2.60) not going to be overly surprised if he wins, but going to think outside the square a bit here. Let’s be a little cheeky and go for 5-BAUGHURST on top at odds. Quite likely he can go forward here and let’s hope the connections have the same idea. Seems to be about ready to fire and this is probably his best chance to win at WFA. 7-HEART OF DREAMS is going along pretty well, needs to show he can run the 2000M, but will be ahead of his main rival in the run, and beat him home last start – and starts better odds than him today. Would prefer to be on him than the favourite. 6-WHOBEGOTYOU sure to be running on and probably places, suspect he will start very short on the tote as he often does ($2.20 or so). Don’t think that is value. He needs to win today to show he is the top WFA horse at the moment. Actually think the quinella 5-BAUGHURST, 7-HEART OF DREAMS looks rather appealing. One to risk: 6-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.90 Roughie: 3-NOM DU JEU The Key: Small field, no speed RESULTS : Bit ambitious taking on the short priced favourite and 6-WHOBEGOTYOU thumbs his nose at us as he cruises to victory. Pro-active ride by Oliver saw him win again. Not the best of rides on 7-HEART OF DREAMS and suspect there is not going to be much between them in the Cox Plate. Shouldn't have been giving the favourite a head start around the home turn and does well to run on against track pattern to narrow the margin for 2nd. RACE 6: TOORAK HANDICAP 1600M GROUP 1 Tips: 8-RAHEEB 2-BLACK PIRANHA 7-CHASM Others: 5,13,16,15,18 Pace: SOLID Leaders : Handy : 3-KING MUFHASA, 4-MENTALITY, 8-RAHEEB, 9-MAGICAL PEARL, 11-GALLICA, 14-TEARS I CRY, 16-ALL AMERICAN, 17-PILLAR OF HERCULES, 18-ALLEZ WONDER Back : 1-RACING TO WIN, 2-BLACK PIRANHA, 5-ROCK KINGDOM, 6-GOLD SALUTE, 7-CHASM, 12-STICKPIN, 13-RAFFAELLO, 15-FAMOUS ROMAN Chances: 2-BLACK PIRANHA is another Sydney visitor who should have a lot of improvement left in him after 2 runs in and stepping up to the 1600M last start. Both runs this time in have been good. Been in a purple patch of form and hardly missed a place in several preparations and 15 starts. 1st time in Melbourne but strong finisher who is going to be suited in this sort of race. Chance. 5-ROCK KINGDOM is going along nicely, 6 wins and 5 placings from 14 starts. Tough on pace effort on bog track in the Epsom last week when only just held on. Backing up off that tough run within a week though must be a query? Drawn outside too means probably has to drop back here else face being trapped wide. In form and looks to have some upside so have to respect, just not sure barrier and 7 day back up are ideal. Chance.3rd W=$13.50 7-CHASM just seems to have tapered off compared to this time last year where he was flying through the grades and looked like he could be anything. 3 runs in and should be peaking, 1st up run was excellent when raced forward against normal pattern, 2nd up here he had the right run to come right into the race but didn’t produce and again didn’t do much last start at Flem. Was racing handy through last preparation but think he is better ridden cold. Was lumped with 59kgs last start so gets very nice weight drop into this. On best form right in this and probably have to respect the weight drop, his 3 runs this time in has been OK. Think he might improve today. Chance. 8-RAHEEB has been racing very well this time in. Looked a bit lost along outside rail 1st up, 2nd up was running a clear 2nd over 200M out in the Group 1, but died on run, last start jockey did the right thing and went forward from outside barrier in a race with little speed on a track that was favouring on pacers. Even allowing for that really like the way he extended and was running away from them on the line. Can race handy and has drawn an inside barrier and a lot of the main chances here are drawn badly. Finished a fast finishing 5th in this race last year when wasn’t going anywhere near as well. Stable even put him into the Cox Plate last year so obviously they had an opinion of him. Slight concern is the 6 runs over the 1600M for only the 2 placings, but really like the win last start and he is going to get the run of the race here. Go well. 4th W=$5.40 13-RAFFAELLO seems to have improved a fair bit over the last year which is surprising for a 5YO. Storming win from last 1st up, 2nd up dropped a long, long way out of ground and the race was a bit muddled up because of the chaos at the start. Came home extremely well there. Gets into this extremely light weight. Is 3rd up though, had a 5 week break between 1st and 2nd up runs and up in distance again into a tough 1600M which is a slight concern. More of a concern is a drop back horse drawn barrier 1 in a big field, probably get stuck for runs back in the field. Again he is going far too well to dismiss, if he drew out a little would just about rate him on top so goes in as a chance, just a few reservations. 16-ALL AMERICAN is a bit hard to follow but puts in a good run now and then. Fitter for the 3 runs in, 1st up run was excellent in a smart field, then got totally lost 2nd up down the straight when jockey switched sides after the start and left him exposed. Actually ran on pretty well here in Group 1 and wasn’t beaten that far. Has drawn nicely, a lot of these aren’t, and he can race handy if required so is going to get a pretty good run into this. Still suspect he is better as a sprinter than a miler. Too hard to follow but think he represents the best silly rough chance here as will get run of the race. Rough. Place: 6-GOLD SALUTE is one on the up and 1st up run down the straight was fantastic when led clearly most of the way on inside rail but was collared by group of them on faster outside rail. Well backed favourite when SCR in chaos at barrier in the Rupert Clarke, then funnily enough drifted like nothing to start better odds in meeting here a few Sundays back – and duly won. Tough conditions that day, windy, wet, he had considerable weight, he got a good sit behind them as they came out wide, but still a tough win. Quality horse. He is versatile too – he can go forward or drop back. Drawn a horror barrier here and really think he has to drop back today – there are also a few drawn inside him who have the same choice so if they all went forward would really create huge pressure up front and they would bring each other undone. 3rd up and up 200M and some of these have had the 1600M run going into this. Don’t really want to take him on as think he is one on the up and they can win against the odds, but think he has a fair bit against him today. Prefer place 2nd W=$9.00 11-GALLICA is the tough on pace staying 3YO F of last season who to be honest often get over done travelling around from state to state in the Autumn and just don’t come up in the spring in open class. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up run in open WFA class showed a fair bit of promise, but did little last start. Another who is drawn wide and probably has to go forward here. Lightly weighted and bit of an unknown quantity in this class – we can’t really tell if she has come up this time around, let alone if she has come up and is up to the class. Some rough chance should she reproduce her old form. 15-FAMOUS ROMAN was our red hot tip last week and did absolutely nothing – did pull up with an elevated heart rate, so should probably be resting in bed rather than going around again. Is a drop back horse and was a on pacers track last week. First two runs this time in were excellent and he loomed up quite menacingly here in the Group 1 2 starts back. Well drawn and at bottom of weights. Often when horses put in a bad run everyone drops off them and they start at long, long odds the next start – suspect that might happen here. Still concerned about last run, but speed on here will suit, drawn well and on Rupert Clarke run would probably be right in this. Rough chance. 18-ALLEZ WONDER showed some staying form as a 3YOF with a placing in the VRC Oaks. Normally drops well back but they changed tactics to go forward and MV last start and it worked so suspect they probably ride her handy again from nice barrier. Most of these have had numerous cracks at these feature miles, at least she is new on the scene so represents an unknown quantity. Probably have to respect as some sort of chance. Rough only 1st W=$42.10 *** we gave it some sort of chance, but one of many *** Sacking: 1-RACING TO WIN is the well credentialed Sydneysider who gets whacked with a considerable top weight in this. Should be at peak with 3 runs in now, and think there was some talk of going to the Cox Plate initially? But that might have been put aside after dead set shocker last start when even money favourite. Only ever had one start in Melb when flopped when favourite in 2006 Cox Plate. Lumped big weight to win 2 starts back. Guess you need to always allow them one bad run and they have progressed with Melb campaign so obviously trainer isn’t too fussed about it. Maybe watch the market and see how much support he gets. Will drop back which is OK in these feature miles, but always reluctant to get on top weights in these races, coming off bad run in Syd and yet to prove himself in Melb happy to leave out today. Passing 3-KING MUFHASA is a NZ visitor who earns the title KING to distinguish himself from the local Australian MUFASA who did race through a spring carnival and is currently in peak form on the highly prestigious Kalgoorlie circuit. Smart performer, 11 wins from 25 starts, fitter for the 2 runs in. 1st up run good, flopped when favourite on a slow track 2nd up. They have booked Oliver so obviously keen to produce something. Did race in Syd over the Autumn and can race on speed. Obviously the flop run last start didn’t worry the stable who have bought him over. Draw wide though – does he normally go forward? Either has to drop back and work to go forward. 1st time in Aus, coming off a dud run think watch the market and probably let him run anyway and just see how he lines up. No 4-MENTALITY is another visitor who have managed to score the top half of this field. Won 1st up this time in when led, then hasn’t done much in 3 runs since. Usually races on pace and drawn out a little so they either need to work and go forward or drop back. Interesting to note he has yet to show up in 3 starts here or 5 starts in Melb. Form not the best at the moment and passing. 9-MAGICAL PEARL is a consistent Adel performer who went OK at WFA last start and almost beat home the pride of Singapore who had come to steal our Cox Plate. Was stepping up in distance there so should improve on that run. Well drawn and he can race handy. More of a worry is the 3 starts over 1600M for 0-0-0, was beaten a far margin last start, and whilst not far off in his other two runs don’t think he was that strong at the end of the 1600M. Not sure he is quite up to this class. Passing 10-PINNACLES SCR 12-STICKPIN is a very hard horse to follow and hasn’t won since Jan 2008, despite being in many finishes. Loomed up here 2 starts back and looked like he was finally going to break through but didn’t finish it off. Then came out and put in huge run in Group 1 when was finishing on well at long odds. Does often have to carry weight and will get in with the lightest weight he has carried for a long time in this. 1st try over the 1600M, but did win over 1500M at Sandown back in 2006. Trip is probably a query. Another who has drawn very wide, think he has to drop back in this and would never everything to go right to be a factor. Light weight is tempting though. 14-TEARS I CRY hasn’t really done anything since his upset Group 1 win in the Emirates Stakes in 2007. Just slight teasing glimpses of form this time in – but they have been well beaten 4ths in weaker races. Drawn well and can race handy so maybe worth a chance in a first four if you are wanting a $100,000 collect, otherwise happy to let him run against these. 17-PILLAR OF HERCULES is fitter for the 3 runs in but only won 2 from 22 now – actually 22 starts for 2-2-2- - is that lucky ? Did run 3rd in this race last year, when his form was just slightly better. Nice barrier. Not going well enough, 7 starts over the distance for 1 placing and outclassed in these races. No Summary: Fantastic ! Back to the glory days of the Toorak with a capacity field and lots of value. Been smallish fields in this event for most of the last decade (from memory) so great to get a tough even 1600M feature again. Extremely even field here – but can raise question marks about many of them so think plan would be to go with the ones with the least convictions and queries. Despite there being no genuine leaders in a big field the speed should be quite genuine, 3-KING MUFHASA (has to cross from outside barrier), 4-MENTALITY will go forward, 8-RAHEEB, 9-MAGICAL PEARL sitting behind them, then there are a swag of them drawn wide who have to make the choice whether to go forward or drop back - 11-GALLICA, 5-ROCK KINGDOM, 6-GOLD SALUTE. In these feature miles want something that has had the 1600M run (or 2 x 1400M runs), preferably a strong finisher, who can get some cover in the run. Think we can knock the chances of many of these on that basis. 8-RAHEEB sticks out as the safest way to go to us, drawn well, can race handy, really liked last win and seems to be on the up. Needs to prove he can run a strong 1600M but should get run of race here. 2-BLACK PIRANHA extremely consistent and drawn to run into this again. Just got a feeling 7-CHASM is going to do something today with the lighter weight, drawn out and ridden a bit more quietly. Wide open betting race and huge multiples are likely. One to risk: Roughie: 16-ALL AMERICAN The Key: Barriers – lot of on pacers are drawn wide RESULTS : Upset winner gets cruisy run from nice barrier from behind the speed and pounces at the right time. Long shots seem to regularly win these feature miles and they are always at the bottom of the weights, drawn a good barrier, lightly raced and contesting a feature mile for the 1st time. Really believe to win these tough competitive feature miles you need 2 x 1400M runs led in, or a 1600M run and not be stepping up in distance. 6-GOLD SALUTE solid and honest for 2nd from outside barrier - probably wins the next feature mile. 8-RAHEEB gets a fairly easy lead and kicks in the straight, considering on pacers were winning and he died on run last 50M think he just struggles to run out a strong 1600M. RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS 1600M GROUP 1 3YO Tips: 6-TRUSTING 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER 1st W=$12.60 *** we find the one in the Guineas most forgot about *** 7-SO YOU THINK Others: 1, 8 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 2-MANHATTAN RAIN, 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER Handy : 1-DENMAN, 3-TICKETS, 4-CARRARA, 9-NICASTRO Back : 6-TRUSTING, 7-SO YOU THINK, 8-EXTRA ZERO, 10-RIVER'S LANE, 11-ECLAIR FASTPASS Chances: 1-DENMAN is the star of Sydney town coming into this with lots and lots of Number 1’s next to this name. Papa LONHRO won this race and will be watching on and cheering from the grandstand like a typically overly enthusiastic parent at his kid’s sports carnival. Has now won his last 6 runs, and plus is that he can take up a handy position so can make his own luck in a small field with not much speed. Query is that he has been up since June, so how much more he has to give this spring ? and how much improvement his rivals will have ? Going to start a short priced favourite here and deservedly so. Has to loose sometime, and coming to the end of a preparation in a feature race is as good a time as any. Has come from Melbourne originally so no fears this way of going. Last start he did look like he was going to get run down, but found something again. Looks the one to beat, and would be a shoe in any normal year but as you have probably heard this field is the strongest line up for a while in this race. Strong chance, short odds though in smart field and probably preferring to be on others for value. 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER is another who is going along extremely well but is going to get out to nice odds in this field. Won his 1st two runs this time in style, then strong effort in McNeil when best ground was out wide and he led and held off the rest of the field. Everyone was doubting him going over further in the Guineas Prelude, but he put in a huge run – he over raced early and threw his head around, then was held up early on in the straight when he had plenty to give and finished off the run very nicely when he got clear. Wasn’t beaten far at all, and was giving weight to his rivals. Drawn barrier 1 in a small field think he can lead and try and pinch this – there isn’t much speed here and free-rolling in front think he is a genuine chance. Have to say though this race isn’t traditionally won by leaders. But like the way he is going, like the small field and like the odds on offer. Chance.1st W=$12.60 6-TRUSTING is the other boom Sydney 3YO who seems to be on the way to much greater things. Has met the (1) before in Sydney and was beaten by him. Won in open class 3 starts back which is a great sign as normally these 3YOs just stick to their own kind. Backmarker who does need luck and a solid pace, but it is back markers who normally win this race. Smaller field and slower pace this year are probably a little against, normally this race is a tough run 1600M that favours runners on. But really liked his run in the Guineas Prelude and that is more often than not the form race for this. He absolutely flew home that day and would have won in another stride. Will give them a start here but suspect he is going to run over the top of them down the middle of the track and be the dominant 3YO this spring. Strong chance 7-SO YOU THINK was heading towards the Spring Champion 2000M last weekend in Syd but trainer has switched him back in distance to this race, to the surprise of many people. Does this young upstart Bart know what he is doing? Only the 3 runs, stack of potential. Runners on often win this race, he will drop back, but another who looks to have the class to win this. In a normal year dropping back in distance to a tough 1600M would probably be a big plus. He is untapped talent though. Watch the market on this one, he may get backed. Chance. 8-EXTRA ZERO is going along OK and he probably has the most improvement to come out of any in this field. Should be much fitter now after the 2 runs in, didn’t do much down the straight 1st up, but last start when 2nd up, up 400M he gave the short priced favourite one hell of a scare at MV when he railed through on the inside and looked like he was going to go over the top of him. Carried equal top weight that start and should get a lot of improvement out of that run. Pretty sure he will beat home the (4) with improvement from last start and think he is by far the best outsider in this race. Has placed both tries at the 1600M so far. Rough chance, even in this strong field and suspect he is going to get out to very attractive odds on the tote. 4th W=$27.20 Place: 4-CARRARA has won 3 form 3 this time in in Melbourne and looks to be going along well. Funny thing is though will still start long odds in this because of the strength of the field. Does look unusual – has won 3 in a row, in town, carrying top weight every time – and is still going to start over $20 !!!. Any other year would probably be right in the market. Can race on pace, is in form, and has been giving his rivals weight and beating them Got to dictate race at Flem with big weight and strong effort to win. Thought he was going to get beaten for sure in the Bill Stutt and think he was lucky just to stick his head down at the right time to win – and he has gone OK on wet tracks before so that shouldn’t have been a problem that night. Guess the question is whether he is going to run out a strong 1600M ? Does look a little unlikely on last run. Everyone has gone rather cold on him and is starting to look value in this race. Prefer place chance, still hard to believe the odds on a in form winner suited at the set weights and sure he won’t be far off in the finish, so definitely goes in for trifectas and first fours. 2nd W=$16.40 Sacking: 2-MANHATTAN RAIN is another Sydneysider whose trainer absolutely raves about him. On the Gai adjusted scale that means he goes along OK. Trainer bought him to Melbourne and straight out declared him to the prettiest and best 3YO in the kingdom. Then he trialled really badly at Flemington and they didn’t even start him in the Danehill Stakes a few weeks back. Produced here in the Guineas Prelude, raced on speed and went OK, interesting to note he drifted in the betting though. Was giving weight in that race so meets his rivals better on weights here. Wasn’t actually beaten that far, but think they had him well covered on the line. Small field and on pace should suit. This is a very tough, competitive 1600M though and think you need to be right at the top of your game to win it. With a set back and question mark doubt that he is. Trying to win this 2nd up off a interrupted preparation just doesn’t seem ideal and happy to risk him today. No 3rd W=$8.50 3-TICKETS should be at this peak now with the 3 runs in. Just OK runs 1st two runs this spring when had to give weight to his rivals, then finally put it all together at Flem. Don’t think much of that win at all though - the track was favouring on pacers, he got the perfect trail just off the speed, in a much weaker field than this and he only just got up. Guess all you can do is win though. Don’t think he is going well enough. No 9-NICASTRO is another who is going along pretty well and in any normal year would be right in the market. Been around the money in each of the 4 starts this time in, win last start here on a slow track with big weight in extremely tough gale force squally conditions was pretty impressive – looked like another one had him covered, but he dug in and found something. Can race on pace in small field. Tough customer who will stick on. Problem is though he has met the (4) and the (5),(6) before, with considerable weight advantages and not been able to beat them home – so extremely hard to see him doing it here at set weights. Probably won’t be far off though. 10-RIVER'S LANE is over from Adel and ran home OK in the Bill Stutt. Was stepping up from 1200M to 1600M that night so should improve on the run. That was a promising run as 1st try past 1200M so looks like can run out the mile. Only won 1 from 10 and few here that are flying. But well held that night by two that aren’t even really considered a chance here so looks outclassed in this. No 11-ECLAIR FASTPASS has the best name in the field by a mile, which should be a prize along with the strapper’s award. Going along OK, but had every chance last start and only just ground away and don’t even think the winner of that race is much chance in this. No Summary: This really looks a stand out classic race – normally we get a capacity field in this race, but smaller field this year and it’s all quality, quality, quality – which is a shame cause we are a quantity, quantity, quantity person ! Looks like the strongest Caulfield Guineas for quite some time and there are 3-4 here who could be anything. 5 last start winners, and 8 last start place getters in a field of 11 is pretty decent going. Normally, big field, high pressure race, favours those running on and those who can run a tough 1600M. Winner normally comes running on down the middle of the track. Smaller field this year, and there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed so think the on pacers will have their chance this year if they are good enough. Guineas Prelude is the form line we normally like to follow into this, follow those who had to carry weight over their rivals and who finished on the strongest in that race. Caulfield races very evenly these days, and even think when the rail is TRUE is slightly favours on pacers. Pace should only be even here, likely leaders look 2-MANHATTAN RAIN, 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER with 1-DENMAN, 4-CARRARA, 9-NICASTRO sitting off them. They are trying to get 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER to settle to run the 1600M, but the lead is his if he wants it, and considering he over raced badly last start wonder if they just don’t send him to lead and try to pinch this – it is definitely there for the taking if he is good enough. Pretty keen on 6-TRUSTING in this, runners on normally win this race, he just wants some genuine speed as he will give them a start. Has shown signs he is going to be the dominant 3YO this spring and suspect he will come out and run them down. Otherwise, 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER looks good value, huge and unlucky run last start and chance he can get his own way on the speed. 7-SO YOU THINK should be finishing on as well and watch the market for support. Just going around 1-DENMAN a little, not saying he cannot win, just not sure we want to take short odds in a field with a lot of untapped potential. 8-EXTRA ZERO the roughie for the multiples. One to risk: 2-MANHATTAN RAIN 3rd W=$8.50 Roughie: 8-EXTRA ZERO The Key: Strong tough 1600M won by runners on RESULTS : Although this race is normally a strong tough 1600M won by runners on we did give the winner 5-STARSPANGLEDBANNER 1st W=$12.60 a good chance this year tearing away in the lead in a small field. Great value with all the focus on the others. Was a great ride and a great front running win. Major casualties in the field behind him as is always the case with thise race - don't believe the hype - do the form !! 7-SO YOU THINK the one to follow going towards the Derby.

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