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MOONEE VALLEY : DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 12th SEPT 2009
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: DAMM NICE - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($100):
Nice sunny and windy weather heading into the weekend and this track will definitely be on the improve. Last meeting here 3 weeks ago the track dried out considerably and became quite firm. Chance that might happen again today.

Generally when the rail is TRUE at MV the track favours those running on, swooping off the camber on the home turn and it can be hard for leaders to win. Most of the first half of this program looks a total trap and staying well away, last half looks very competitive and good betting races. Doubling up to $100 again as think there are some nice value runners in the 2nd half of the program.

RESULTS : Warm 30 degrees in Melbourne (WOO HOO !!) and track dries out - a few trainers scratch their horses to protect them. Solid tempo in most races and strong gusting winds makes it very hard for leaders to stick on in the straight. Rail TRUE at MV normally tends towards those running on anyway.

BEST BET : Race 7: 10-WHOBEGOTYOU $30 WIN 1st W=$2.20 = 30 x 2.2 = $66
Today is the day for this one to stand up and prove himself a major spring player. Extra distance should suit, genuine speed, should be able to run on and get over the top of them. Should win - unless of course he just runs another placing.
RESULTS : Totally different horse today with blinkers on - lets down off a slow place, runs into the race strongly and really like the way he put himself into the race and extended around the home bend. Going to be very hard to beat in anything he contests this spring and happy to follow him with confidence from now on.

BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 1-TYPHOON ZED
QUINELLA : RACE 6 : 1#3,5,8 x $5 = $15 - / 1st 3-NICCONI 1st W=$2.90, 2nd 9-MORGAN DOLLAR W=$20.70, 3rd 5-SECRET FLYER W=$3.70
Very consistent on pace top class sprinter who does seem to start over the odds a lot of the time. Should sit just behind speed here, as long as he can get out should be in the finish. Might find one better, but should be value in the quinella in an even betting race.
RESULTS : Ah yes....the wonders of the punt. The one we take in the qunella sits in a perfect position but doesn't finish off the race. The three with take as the others run the trifecta ($130.50)

BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 13-BETTY’S BELLE $12.50 EW
Really liked the run of this one last start here – drew wide, worked to the lead and crossed over, had another one go early and come up on it’s outside, but still stuck on well for 3rd. Bit of speed here again, but drawn to sit outside the speed, should be able to take a sit and should be in the finish.
RESULTS : Doesn't go forward and never a factor

BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 2-PARTIVA $7.50 EW SCR $15
Been racing very well and only just nabbed on line last start when had to come off rails and left a sitting duck for something running on. Fit, in form, will lob on speed here which isn’t fast and should stick on pretty well at nice odds.

BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 13-MR PAPARAZZI $5 EW
Fitter for 3 runs in, lightly raced and led and clicked clear last start at Caulfield. Think that was a sign he is ready to show something. Is a leader and there is a fair bit of speed here (5),(8), but he if gets to the lead will prove hard to run down.
RESULTS : Leads on a day when leaders aren't really sticking on and quite a few go forward here. Still think he is worth following once he gets into a race with an easy lead.

LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 1: 1-UMANUGGET 6th W=$3.70
First race of the day in small field, giving most of the field 5kgs or more, 2nd up and up in distance 300M. Not much depth in this field, but you would think something at the bottom of the weights would step up.
RESULTS : Opens up a clear favourite, continues to drift, still starts favourite with the bookies. Drops back and never looks like running into the race. Nice lay.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUINELLA : Race 3: 13-BETTY’S BELLE, 9-TAKE ALL OF ME x $5 - / 3rd 9-TAKE ALL OF ME W=$9.20
Quite like our each way bet in Race 3, but there is another one which will probably start OK odds which you should have something on – the 9-TAKE ALL OF ME. She dropped back from outside barrier last start and never really given a chance, but ran on pretty well. Only lightly raced and showing a bit of potential and should be suited running on here off solid speed. Nice value quinella.


SPENT : $100
RETURN : $81
NET : $-19

The Tips:

Race 1: 6-DIAMONDCOWBOY, 3-SIR EXCELLENCE, 7-KINETICS
Race 2: 8-KELTARA, 3-QUICK BLUSH, 6-MIRACULOUS MISS
Race 3: 13-BETTY’S BELLE, 9-TAKE ALL OF ME, 4-JAALIPPY
Race 4: 2-PASS ME BY, 8-COURTNEY, 13-PERGOLA
Race 5: 5-EAGLE FALLS, 1-MASKED ASSASSIN, 10-LUCKY THUNDER
Race 6: 1-TYPHOON ZED, 5-SECRET FLYER, 3-NICCONI
Race 7: 10-WHOBEGOTYOU, 2-EL SEGUNDO, 1-EFFICIENT
Race 8: 2-PARTIVA, 4-MISS MAREN, 14-MARCHELLE BELLE
Race 9: 13-MR PAPARAZZI, 3-SANDHILL PRINCE, 4-SHOCKING

RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
6-DIAMONDCOWBOY
3-SIR EXCELLENCE
7-KINETICS


RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
8-KELTARA
3-QUICK BLUSH
6-MIRACULOUS MISS 3rd W=$6.50

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
13-BETTY’S BELLE
9-TAKE ALL OF ME 3rd W=$9.20
4-JAALIPPY 2nd W=$4.50

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
2-PASS ME BY 2nd W=$1.70
8-COURTNEY
13-PERGOLA 1st W=$14.20 *** nice value winner ***

Quinella : $13.70

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
5-EAGLE FALLS 1st W=$1.80
1-MASKED ASSASSIN
10-LUCKY THUNDER

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
1-TYPHOON ZED
5-SECRET FLYER 3rd W=$3.70
3-NICCONI 1st W=$2.90

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
10-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$2.20 *** best bet ***
2-EL SEGUNDO
1-EFFICIENT SCR

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
2-PARTIVA SCR
4-MISS MAREN
14-MARCHELLE BELLE

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
13-MR PAPARAZZI
3-SANDHILL PRINCE
4-SHOCKING


RACE 6: MCEWEN STAKES GROUP 3 1000M WFA
Tips:
1-TYPHOON ZED
5-SECRET FLYER 3rd W=$3.70
3-NICCONI 1st W=$2.90

Others: 2

Pace: EXTREMELY FAST
Leaders : 7-I AM INVINCIBLE, 10-MRS WATERS
Handy : 1-TYPHOON ZED, 2-LUCKY SECRET, 4-HERE DE ANGELS, 8-MORGAN DOLLAR
Back : 3-NICCONI, 5-SECRET FLYER , 6-WILANDER

Chances:
1-TYPHOON ZED is a dead set honest top class sprinter who you can back with confidence when right. Better suited over 1000M/1100M as only just gets 1200M. 1000M here at a very solid tempo will suit. Fitter for the 2 runs in, should be at peak today and sits handy in the run which is always a plus. Suited under the WFA conditions and won the Manikato this day last year. Solid each way chance.
2-LUCKY SECRET is a whopping 7 times winner this track and just loves dear old MV. Jump and run sprinter who usually goes well fresh and has been running impressive times in track work leading up to this. Won this day last year in weaker race over 1000M . Very impressive win strike rate, but has failed to run out a race a few times when looked a dead set winner (Oakleigh Plate 2009, Schillaci Stakes 2008). Stack of talent, but a lot of his wins have been easy kills when either leading or setting outside the leader. Just wonder how he is going to go today with a frantic early speed in this meaning he is going to have to run down a few. Watch the market, often this guy starts very short and obviously too good to ignore. Chance. SCR
3-NICCONI is lightly raced and looks largely untapped so could go right on with things this spring. Trainer has always had a high opinion of this one. Won open class Group1 sprint as a 3YO during Syd autumn. Does drop back, but the speed on here is going to suit him running on. Should go well fresh and probably watch the market for support. Chance. 1st W=$2.90
5-SECRET FLYER is one of our favourite horses at the moment. He has pulled off several breath taking wins over the last year and is one on the up. Win here last start was sensational – must have been giving the leader 5L on the home turn and came with perfectly timed run. Fit and in form which is a plus. Barrier is the big question mark here. Last start drew outside barrier so knew the jockey could come around them on the home turn – and even then the run was perfectly timed – if he was held up even for a millisecond he would not have got there. Barrier 1 today looks a major issue. They are going to go fast which will suit the runners on, but going to take a genius ride to come around the field and not get held up looking for runs. This guy is flying, and on the up, so can’t totally write off but very concerned about the barrier. Chance. 3rd W=$3.70

Place:
6-WILANDER was SCR from the lead up run to this – not sure why? Does he have a note from his parents ? Drawn out and probably sits back a little in this – can’t see him going forward and getting caught in speed battle. Thing to like about him is that he can sit off the speed and get a clear run into this. Think he probably finds one better, but solid place chance based on where he will sit in the run.
8-MORGAN DOLLAR normally goes best fresh and can run along at a very fast speed. Bit of a surprise that he ended up dropping back 1st up and running on OK from behind. Suspect he will race a bit more forward today. The (5) came from behind and went past him pretty easily last start. Last run was OK though, this track and distance, and drawn out so will get a solid crack at them. Suspect will find one better, but solid place chance and probably going to start over the odds. Rough. 2nd W=$20.70
10-MRS WATERS is a favourite of ours, who just jumps and runs. She goes damm quick. She runs 995M and no further. She starts good odds just about every start. Great entertainment value for your punting dollar cause she will always give you a show at least. Kicked clear here last start and looked the winner – poor thing – probably deserved to win. Took a phenomenal effort from the (5) to run her down. Lead by 5L start before at Sand over 1000M. They are riding her very hard out of the barriers and will be a fierce contest as to who can jump and lead between her and the (7), but our money is still on this one. She is damm quick. Rail TRUE today is against her as normally makes it hard for leaders, this race is probably a little tougher and probably a little more pressure up front. But reckon she still probably finishes First Four – she always starts over the odds so make sure you put her in for the place. Place.

Sacking:
4-HERE DE ANGELS is a jump and run type who is best on dry tracks. Tried as a sprinter miler last spring which didn’t quite work out and much better left as a sprinter. Form has tapered off a bit over last year, but change of stable looks like they are starting to work him out. Few barrier trials to get him right before fair 1st up effort with weight. He is proving a bit of a problem at the barriers these days which is a major concern. Will he miss the start ? Drawn inside, lots of speed here, he is going to get shuffled back on the rails and think that is going to bring him undone here. Happy to pass 4th W=$12.40
7-I AM INVINCIBLE is an up and down type who has a few injury problems. 4 weeks ago they were talking about taking on American sprint races – assume that bubble has burst after flop in the Blecthingly. Drop back to 1000M suits – extremely speedy and will go to the front here. Won feature sprint in Adel leading all the way. Actually missed start 1st up then railed through and kicked to win. Had a freshen since last start flop when fav – but really gave in far too quickly in that run. Bit undecided about him. Going to be plenty of pressure up front here and our rule is back them off good runs, drop them off bad runs. Happy to take him on in this tough sprint field and probably under some question marks. Risking.
9-TEASING is a Syd sprinter who is fit and in winning form. Does drop well back in his runs though, think that spells danger dropping back in distance to 1000M, around tight MV circuit and 1st time Melb way of going. Prefer to risk. SCR

Summary: Fascinating tactical race, not sure it’s a great betting race. They should go pretty fast here,
7-I AM INVINCIBLE, 10-MRS WATERS in a competition to see who can get the lead. Suspect 10-MRS WATERS will be ridden very aggressively out of the barriers, put pressure on the (7) and even maybe cross onto the rails.

Whatever you back your chances will probably be decided after the first 50M as to where everything settles. Always prefer to be drawn middle to outside in these MV sprints as can be difficult to get off rails if drawn inside (although rail is TRUE and its mainly a problem when the rail is out). Rail TRUE and furious pace should suit those sitting back off speed in clear running and finishing on. Having said that, think 1-TYPHOON ZED appeals here at each way odds. Should sit just off speed. He is proven time and time again at this level and seems to be a little under rated – always seems to start at back able odds. Has drawn inside so want him sitting outside one – not on the rails. 5-SECRET FLYER far too good to leave out, if he drew outside would be clear top pick and solid bet, going to take something special from the jockey from barrier 1. 3-NICCONI the one on the way up, running on, just a matter of how ready he is 1st up. Great race to watch, probably just a little something each way on the top pick.

One to risk: 7-I AM INVINCIBLE
Roughie: 8-MORGAN DOLLAR 2nd W=$20.70
The Key : First 50M – where will they settle ?

RESULTS : Furious speed and the on pacers fails to stick on. Poor old 10-MRS WATERS was being ridden aggresively to the lead when she lost balance for a stride and that was the end of her hopes. Class win by the 3-NICCONI 1st up and stable has a very high opinion of this one. 8-MORGAN DOLLAR starts way over the odds.

RACE 7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES 1600M GROUP 2 WFA
Tips:
10-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$2.20
2-EL SEGUNDO
1-EFFICIENT SCR

Others:

Pace: SOLID – SET BY LEADER
Leaders : 13-JOLIE'S SHINJU (JPN), 11-MIC MAC
Handy : 4-TEARS I CRY, 5-SEA BATTLE, 7-MAJESTICAL, 8-MAGICAL PEARL
Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 2-EL SEGUNDO, 3-ZIPPING, 6-BAUGHURST, 9-DANDAAD, 10-WHOBEGOTYOU, 12-PRECEDENCE

Chances:
2-EL SEGUNDO is a top line WFAer who won the Cox Plate here in 2007. Been fighting aches and pains last couple of years, but absolutely slashing run 1st up with huge weight down the straight. Raced a bit flat 2nd up in the Memsie, but still not beaten very far behind most of these. Won this race in 2007 off a 3rd in the Aurie Star and a 4th in the Memsie - so form this year really isn’t much different. Solid tempo should suit. Definite chance – those who beat him home last start probably will do so again, but if he finds his best form would win this. Chance.
10-WHOBEGOTYOU is either going to be the stand out star of the spring or cause punters to loose much loved hair follicles. As we pointed out last start, his racing style means he just doesn’t win his fair share of races – he either hits leader’s tracks, or drops too far back in slowly run races, or strikes trouble trying to get through big fields. Fitter for the 2 runs in, has ran on nicely in both runs and for us today is actually his D day. Fitter, extra distance, MV rail TRUE should favour runners on, solid tempo – everything is set up for him today. He should win. Unbeaten at this track. Blinkers go on today. Stand out bet here and should win – needs to prove himself a top liner today and not just a runner on. If he doesn’t win this, would avoid him for the rest of the spring. One to beat. 1st W=$2.20

Place:
1-EFFICIENT is the 2007 Cup winner who is getting greyer by the day – just like the author. Already lined up a cosy retirement job as a clerk of the course. Been raced very sparingly since – last spring got cut short due to injury. Normally takes a few runs to find best, but raced very forward first up in the Memsie for a pretty nice 5th against most of these. Normally has been taken along very slowly to peak in Nov, just wonder if coming to the end of his racing he is more tuned up this time in. Solid tempo here will suit. Bit of an unknown quantity – if he was ready and firing he is good enough to beat this lot. Will be running on and probably the best roughie in this race. SCR
7-MAJESTICAL is one on the up who will win a good race this spring. Fitter for 2 runs in and expect a lot of improvement today. Good run 1st up down the straight, then let’s forgive 2nd up run (bad 2nd up runs are always allowed, poking your fingers into an opponent’s face to find pressure points is NOT). Probably positions mid field here and will appreciate the genuine tempo. Doubt he is good enough to win this, but probably a silly one to throw in for trifectas for first fours if you it is a juicy dividend you seek. Rough place.
9-DANDAAD is a stayer who was running on OK at the end of Sand 1400M 1st up. Outclassed against these under these conditions and needs a staying trip. Having said that, pace on will suit, 1st up run was OK so throw him in for the silly first fours as rank outsider.
11-MIC MAC has won 7 from 8 and keeps stepping up to the challenges set to him. Won easily 1st up down the straight and pretty solid win 2nd up when was taken on early around the home turn, but fought on and sprinted clear on them. Was always going to be suited last start in sit sprint 1400M WFA race. Today is the big test – only defeat has been over 1600M and is he going to run the longer trips? and keep going to the Cox Plate? On pacer who is probably going to have to drag the field up to the tear away leader (13) in this. Going to make it a very tough 1600M first time, he is a query at the distance and there are plenty who finished behind him last start who are going to be relishing the speed and the trip. Probably shouldn’t take on one that is on the up, and in winning form, but it’s all about taking a punt and think he is a risk today. Risking and prefer place. 2nd W=$3.30
13-JOLIE'S SHINJU (JPN) is the mystery visitor from Singapore who has come over here early for the Cox Plate for a few warm up laps. Which is a great idea and means they are serious about tackling that race. Almost impossible to line up and from a punting point of view we avoid OS horses like the plague – no point betting on an unknown Wait till they have had a run and let them prove themselves under Aus conditions. Silly us has better things to do than follow Singapore form so totally an unknown – except that she leads. And is a horse – we think. Seems to have beaten home same horses last 3 runs and JABAL TARIK was OK when he raced down under, but no star. Watch market, though suspect she will start over the odds as does seem to be some scepticism over her form. Place only as should lead easily in this and dictate the race if she wants. 3rd W=$9.40

Sacking:
3-ZIPPING is a consistent old timer who we think is still a bit under rated – often been finishing on too late in many feature races. Win in the Sandown Classic last year was simply outstanding. 1st up today and 1st up in this race last year he ran on OK for 7th. 1st up form is much better than the stats indicate – pretty much every time he has been finishing on very strongly. Has won twice here, but have to admit always thought he was much better off at bigger tracks like Flem and Sand – don’t think he is at his best at MV. Happy to let run today.
4-TEARS I CRY will always be remembered for the 100-1 Emirates Stakes win in 2007. Form hasn’t been the best since then and had had some chopping and changing of trainers with the owner taking over the reigns. Fitter for the 2 runs in and stuck on well last start over 1400M. Can probably go forward here today. Never really been up to the top WFA company though and outclassed against these. No
5-SEA BATTLE had a full year on the beach having a well deserved rest after a bumper spring campaign last year. Very consistent when right, can race on speed or drop back and heap of ability. Wasn’t disgraced against these first up and stable has already had a pretty impressive spring. 2nd up today. Does meet most of those who beat him home in the Memsie and thought the 1st up run was a tad disappointing – did expect he would do more. Prefer to wait till he proves himself in this class or finds form. No
6-BAUGHURST is a very consistent handicapper who stepped up a level during the Autumn and went OK. 1st up effort was just fair. Probably drops back today from outside barrier. Extra distance will suit, but think he is out of his depth at WFA against these and wait till he finds form and gets back to a more suitable race. No
8-MAGICAL PEARL is a fit in form one over from Adel, with a good winning strike rate. Always like to respect fit in form ones in these early WFA races as often the big names can be a little under done. Won in pretty nice time last start over 1400M with big weight. Has failed (not by much) in both tries over the 1600M and you do wonder if the 1600M is as far as he wants. 1600M, in top WFA company, racing on pace and having to drag in the tear away leader almost certainly finds him out. No 4th W=$19.90
12-PRECEDENCE is lightly raced Cummings stayer who didn’t do much 1st up and is way outclassed in this. No

Summary: Looks an intriguing race and a lot of questions about the Cox Plate are going to be answered today. Is the Singapore form any good ? Will 11-MIC MAC run out these longer trips ?
Is 10-WHOBEGOTYOU going to be a winner or a runner on ? And where did we park the car cause buggered if we can find it.

Obvious leader here is 13-JOLIE'S SHINJU (JPN) with OS jockey on board and history tells us just about anything can happen in those circumstances. 11-MIC MAC and 8-MAGICAL PEARL will be racing handy behind her and will have to come out to bring the field up to her.

Today really is D Day for 10-WHOBEGOTYOU. We are a bit worried he is just going to be running on late and unlucky all spring, but think today he has a lot in his favour (solid pace, 1600M, unbeaten here, rail TRUE favours runners on). Should win – if he can’t win today doubt he will be worth following for the rest of the spring. Unless you like collecting on place dividends ? Don’t underestimate 2-EL SEGUNDO who will also be suited and has won this race before with similar form lines. 1-EFFICIENT is the smoky , that 1st up run was maybe a sign he is going to be competitive in these races. Quite happy to take on 11-MIC MAC in a solidly run 1600M against these, think the runners on will have his measure today – might kick clear on the home turn and look the winner, but expect the swoopers to run him down. Keen to bet.

One to risk: 11-MIC MAC
Roughie: 1-EFFICIENT SCR
The Key : 1600M race run at a solid tempo.

RESULTS : Slowly run race but top pick is a totally different horse today with the blinkers on. Let down and put himself into the race quickly and ran away like a class horse. As everyone suspected t 11-MIC MAC finds one better over the mile. 2-EL SEGUNDO runs on well too late.
 
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