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MOONEE VALLEY : FUTURE STARS SPRINT - 22nd Aug 2009
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN – BRING IN THE WASHING - Rail: OUT 4M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Note that this meeting used to be McEwen Stakes Day, but looks like that race has been moved to Manikato Stakes Day in a couple of weeks time. So we have done the detailed form for the Future Stars Sprint which probably looks the most interesting race on the program.

Weather has been jolly nice in Melbourne most of this week, but some decent rain forecast for Fri. Probably clears by Sat, but should get a track with a bit of give in it. Last time they raced at MV track was OUT 7M and the rails were a bit off. Often rail out at MV can favour those racing on pace so as always watch the early races, and bet informed. Try to avoid those with inside barriers that will drop back in the run, they never get out at MV with the rail out.

Not overly enthused about this program, lots of big even fields and lots of out of form or resuming horses.

RESULTS : Actually looks like the McEwen has been moved to Feehan Stakes Day and the Manikato has been moved to the Stutts Stakes Night Meeting. Do try and keep up. Rain doesn't really come and get a pretty firm track. Even racing, they can win from behind if they have the class, but always a tendency towards on pacers at MV when the rail is out. Lots of short priced favourites so not much value, but lots of horses on the up.

BEST BET : Race 6: 8-BONINDI $20 WIN 2nd W=$2.90
On pacer who is racing in peak form. Has fought on very well last two starts. Drop back to 1500M suits, drawn to jump and get rails and lead here. Some pressure up front, but around MV think he should kick and win this.
RESULTS : Started way too short on the tote, much better with bookies. Most of the other on pacers got scratched but the emergency got into the field who was also an on pacer and won. Honest and in the finish as always, but jockey did elect to take a sit and feel he is best bowling along in front.

BEST EACH WAY : Race 2: 5-GALLILEO’S DAUGHTER $5 EW
Doesn’t win that often, but fitter for the 2 runs in and like the way it ran along in front last start. If they take it to the lead here think she will be hard to run down.
RESULTS : Didn't go to the lead and didn't go much. Bit of a non winner


QUINELLA : Race 8: 2-EAGLE FALLS, 9-TOLKA ROCK x $5
QUINELLA : Race 8: 2-EAGLE FALLS, 3-SIGNOR SOCKS x $5 1st 2-EAGLES FALLS W=$2.20, 2nd 3-SIGNOR SOCKS W=$16.40 QUINELLA = $14.30 x $5 = $71.50
The (2) is the class horse in the last and is on it’s way to better things this spring. Should account for this field, has drawn slightly wide though. Take it with the two on pacers just in case the barrier brings him undone.
RESULTS : One of the one pacers sticks on at nice odds and the class horse wins. Nice quinella.

BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 13-COSTALOTS $2.50 EW SCR $5
Just having a bit of a play bet here, in a field of plodding stayers. This one has had 4 runs in off a year break, should just about be ready to show something. Place strike rate OK before that. Rank outsider of the field, but not like the rest are any good so have a play bet.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
Race 7 : First Four : 3 / 2,11 / 1(scr),6,8,10 / 2,11 x $2.50 = 31.25 %
Race 7 : First Four : 3 / 1(scr),6,8,10 / 2,11 / 2,11 x $2.50 = 31.25% 1st 3-SECRET FLYER W=$2.40 / 2nd 10-MRS WATERS W=$17.40 / 3rd 2-MORGAN DOLLAR W=$3.30 / -
The sprinter on the up should win the main race (3), suspect the (2) and the (11) will be in the finish, so rotate some first fours with others popping into the finish.
RESULTS : Right in theory and gave the First Four a decent shake for a small outlay. Pays a healthy $600, so 30% of more for $5 would've been a very nice return.

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $76.50
NET : $+26.50


The Tips:

Race 1: 1-BLACK CAVIAR, 3-MAKA ENA, 4-ORBITING BELLE
Race 2: 5-GALLILEO’S DAUGHTER, 12-PRAY FOR ME, 10-CAMEO MINX
Race 3: 4-PASS ME BY, 5-BETWIXT, 13-COSTALOTS
Race 4: 4-NICASTRO, 1-CARRARA, 6-CABEZA
Race 5: 5-LA GOULUE, 9-SWEET SVENGALI, 10-BETTY’S BELLE
Race 6: 8-BONINDI, 10-ALL CHEVAL, 11-TEST EDITION
Race 7: 3-SECRET FLYER, 2-MORGAN DOLLAR,11-ROAD TO DUNDEE
Race 8: 2-EAGLE FALLS, 9-TOLKA ROCK, 3-SIGNOR SOCKS

RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$ 1.10 **** WOO HOO **
3-MAKA ENA SCR
4-ORBITING BELLE 3rd W=$11.20

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
5-GALLILEO’S DAUGHTER
12-PRAY FOR ME 2nd W=$9.10
10-CAMEO MINX SCR

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
4-PASS ME BY 1st W=$2.50
5-BETWIXT
13-COSTALOTS SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
4-NICASTRO 3rd W=$5.80
1-CARRARA 1st W=$1.80
6-CABEZA

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
5-LA GOULUE
9-SWEET SVENGALI
10-BETTY’S BELLE 3rd W=$8.10

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
8-BONINDI 2nd W=$2.90
10-ALL CHEVAL SCR
11-TEST EDITION

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
3-SECRET FLYER 1st W=$2.40
2-MORGAN DOLLAR 3rd W=$3.30
11-ROAD TO DUNDEE

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
2-EAGLE FALLS 1st W=$2.20
9-TOLKA ROCK
3-SIGNOR SOCKS 2nd W=$16.40

Quinella : $14.30


RACE 7: FUTURE STARTS SPRINT 1000M
Tips:
3-SECRET FLYER 1st W=$2.40
2-MORGAN DOLLAR 3rd W=$3.30
11-ROAD TO DUNDEE

Others:

Pace: VERY FAST
Leaders : 1-WILANDER, 2-MORGAN DOLLAR, 9-DEVIL MAY CARE, 10-MRS WATERS
Handy : 5-BRAIDED GENERAL, 7-TULLY DREAMER, 8-UNCLE IVAN,
Back : 3-SECRET FLYER, 4-SHREWD RHYTHM, 6-DR NIPANDTUCK, 11-ROAD TO DUNDEE

Chances:
2-MORGAN DOLLAR has won 3 from 6 over the 1000M and is probably best at this distance and is also best fresh. Last two fresh runs has finished 4th in an Oakleigh Plate and 4th in a Group 2 sprint – both over 1100M. Today over the 1000M probably suits better. Ran 2nd in this race last year on a slow track. He is another that just jumps and runs, over 1000M and fresh suit and when right he does have a stack of talent. Definitely goes in as a solid chance.3rd W=$3.30
3-SECRET FLYER stepped up to another level last time in with some truly dominant wins and didn’t have the best of luck when he stepped into the top grade in the Newmarket. Has won his last 2 starts at MV, back in Dec he overcame a dynamite leader’s track to win over 1200M, and here again over 1000M in Feb he stalked the leader and slaughtered them. Yet to miss a place at MV. Suspect he is going to be competitive in the top sprint races this time in and plus with this guy is that he sits off the speed and runs on. Seems to be plenty of speed here, he is drawn out which is actually good so he can sit off them and make a clear run at them. One to beat. 1st W=$2.40
11-ROAD TO DUNDEE is under rated and should be fitter for the 2 runs this time in. Last start at Caulfield is much much better than it looks on form, she was sitting beside a wall of horses with plenty to give, but just never got out. Placed 3 from 4 this track, does drop back, but just loves these fast run sprints as normally finishing on well. For some reason often takes narrow gaps and comes flying home on inside. Drawn out today though, will be able to sit off them and finish on. Should be fitter, ready to win and best rough chance here. Rough.

Place:
1-WILANDER is an above average jump and run sprinter who fails to run out the longer sprint trips, so the 1000M here is ideal. Has to carry decent top weight here under this weight scale, but has been competitive in much harder races than this. 1st up last time in wasn’t far off at all in the Group 1 Lightning. Query is the top weight, on pacer drawn wide, in a race with lots of speed so is probably going to get caught wide. Will be thereabouts, maybe just prefer place. SCR
6-DR NIPANDTUCK is an old timer who is pretty handy on his day. Best form has always been as a miler, was switched back to being a sprinter and went along OK, but has been recently tried over the mile again and been competitive. Well known superior wet tracker early on in his career. Had a solid 6 months off the scene and probably deserved a decent rest. Normally goes well fresh (placed 3 from 4). Did nothing 1st up in this race last year, but that was after a period of below normal form. Was actually quite unlucky and should have won this race when flying home when it was run at Caulf in 2007, and put in another sterling run the start after when 3rd in the Manikato that year. Will drop back and get speed to suit here. Doubt he can win, and may be past his best, but probably worth throwing in for some value in the First Four.
8-UNCLE IVAN is pretty consistent and generally goes along OK, placed 12 from 18. Nice honest sit on pace sprinter who is probably looking forward to the night racing resuming where he will have some easy pickings. Had a freshen since wet track flop last start. Felt he only won cause he was in the right place at the right time start before that at Caulfield. OK barrier, sits handy, honest and will probably be thereabouts, just looks outclassed by a few going around here. Place.
10-MRS WATERS is a dear old favourite of ours and have had some good collects on her as she does tend to start at nice odds a lot of the time. She jumps and runs – damm fast – damm damm fast. Seriously – fast. She just bolts. Good on wet tracks. Only gets 1000M and no further – and even then she will be stopping on the line. Last start at Sand she just bolted and lead them around the turn by a good 6L, which is pretty impressive in a 1000M race. Drawn inside here, she gets the rails and will just bolt. She does tend to come unstuck if she gets any pressure up front, and you would think the (1),(2)-especially, and the (9) are going to take her on. She will probably give you a good run for your money though, though suspect she will fade badly over the last 50M and get swamped. Throw in for a place chance. 2nd W=$17.40

Sacking:
4-SHREWD RHYTHM was tried in some of the major 3YOs mile races, but seems to be kept to being a sprinter these days. Lost all form for a long while till last preparation. Seems to handle it wet if the rain persists. May be rejuvenated, and may go on with it, but does drop back normally in his races, has drawn towards the inside and suspect over 1000M first up he will be running on – but probably too late. Happy to risk.
5-BRAIDED GENERAL is 2nd up and finished on very well at Sand last start. Does often race forward so listen out to see if they reveal what he is going to do today from barrier 1. Only within 1kg of some much better performed types, so doesn’t look well suited under this weight scale. He has been running in restricted races, those above him have been running in Group level sprints. From barrier 1 – if he drops back over the 1000M at MV then won’t get through then field, if he presses forward he is really going to have to work as quite a bit of speed drawn outside. Leaving out. 4th W=$15.20
7-TULLY DREAMER to be honest is nothing special, though sure his mum still loves him. Last start after a freshen up did nothing on a very wet track. Placed 3 from 4 this track and distance. Will sit handy from a good barrier here so might bob into a place, but think this sort of race is out of his depth. No
9-DEVIL MAY CARE is a jump and run sprinter who probably gets caught up in speed battle up front here. Has race fitness on her side, again only in restricted races, so think she is outclassed going into this. Passing.


Summary: Normally this is the McEwen Stakes, but that seems to have been moved to Manikato Stakes Day just to be confusing. So it is the pretend McEwen Stakes, most of these horses would’ve been going around in the McEwen Stakes if it was run today, which it isn’t. Or is it ?

Actually doesn’t look a bad betting race, think you can think through how this race is going to be run. A lot of these have been running in weaker class races, so stick to those that are up to the top class sprints.

MV 1000M is a tricky course, definitely don’t want to draw an inside barrier and drop back cause never going to get a crack at them. If you are on pace, probably want to draw middle to outside so you can sit in space and get a clear run. Backmarkers want to draw wide, so can sit back and loop around them.

Seems to be abundant speed here, which of course is not surprising considering it is a sprint race. 10-MRS WATERS should jump, get the rails and bolt to the lead, 2-MORGAN DOLLAR normally goes very fast fresh and will cross and apply pressure, 9-DEVIL MAY CARE will go forward. Can see 1-WILANDER getting caught wide on the speed from his barrier and happy to risk him. Think this sets it up for a backmarkers, who is also the horse with the most upside in this race being 3-SECRET FLYER. Drawn out to get a clear crack at them coming around the field, and his wins last time in were really quite dominant. Is a sprinter on the rise. 2-MORGAN DOLLAR should stick on, on pace and definitely watch out for 11-ROAD TO DUNDEE as the best roughie, again with speed on, fitter and unlucky last start she should be coming home hard. Keen to bet.

One to risk: 1-WILANDER
Roughie: 11-ROAD TO DUNDEE
The Key : Abundant speed, watch for the quality backmarkers drawn wide.

RESULTS : Big pat on the back for Turf Deli, and big blow of our own trumpet. We summed the race up perfectly, not just finding the winner but thinking through how the race would be run - and getting it right (for once !). Class win by the favourite who really had to pull out something special around the home turn - and did. Class sprinter on the rise and great ride by the jockey. Some money to be made on First Fours around the two main chances, always exciting to see 10-MRS WATERS tearing away in the lead. Really a pretty outstanding win by 3-SECRET FLYER though - how many lengths was he giving the leader around the turn ?
 
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