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MOONEE VALLEY : MANIKATO STAKES - 25th SEPT 2009
Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: STORMS - Rail: OUT 2M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Rain. Rain. Rain. Rainy Melbourne. Feels like the first time in years we are going to have a seriously rain affected track for a major spring meeting. Solid rain most of Thurs, more rain and even thunderstorms for Fri night so suspect this track is going to be a genuine SLOW. Do your wet track form.

This is the first time we have covered this meeting. In general, MV night meetings are great for having a play bet. The track is just about always a dynamite leaders track (especially if the rail is out). The
outsider or 2nd outsider of the field just about always gets into the finish – probably because the depth of the fields is usually very minimal. TAB phone betting closes at 9pm which is just plain silly. Remember where you parked your car cause that car park gets damm dark. Bit hard to have a serious bet, but for playing for some value night meetings are great fun.

This meeting of course has more depth to it. Rail is only OUT 2M, normally the further the rail goes out at MV the more the leaders win by. Probably even racing with the rail only out a little, but just watch out - often night racing does favour on pacers. The wet track might favour on pacers too. This meeting last year was a dynamite leaders track which saw CEFALU lead all the way in the JRA Cup at 100-1, though WHOBEGOTYOU did manage to win the Bill Stutt Stakes from well back. However, last year they made the mistake of having a meeting on the Weds before with the rail out 7M and moved it back to the 3M which probably caused the problem. This year, rail was TRUE for last meeting two weeks ago. So bearing all that in mind, should probably get even racing, but be wary
just in case on pacers are advantaged again.

Probably going to be quite a few short priced favourites tonight, so going to be hard to find some value. Going to just have a few win bets, maybe take all up win bets with a few of the favourites in other races.

RESULTS : Track comes up a genuine slow and fierce competitive racing most of the night. Many races they tended to wind up too early and too wide and those winning were normally closer to the rails biding their time.

BEST BET : Race 7: 7-AVENUE $10 WIN 1st W=$3.00 = 10 x 3 = $30
QUADRELLA : 1,10 / 4,5,6,7,13 / 7 / 3,6,11,12 x $10 = 25% 1st 1-CARRARA 1st W=$1.70 / 3rd 6-NICCONI W=$4.30 / 1st 7-AVENUE W=$3.00 / -
Major spruik before last run when led and nabbed on the line by a good one that has won since. On pacer who will sit on the speed here and should go on with it. Probably starts short, around $2.50, lets back it to win and take a quadrella with it one out. Might still be some value in the quadrella, take two in the 1st leg just in case the short price favourite gets beaten, load up chances in 2nd and last legs in case there is an upset.
RESULTS : Get better odds than expected, jumps and leads and never looks like getting beaten. Couldn't collect the quaddie as well, but had the right approach.

BEST WIN : Race 3: 3-RUNNING RIOT $10 WIN 2nd W=$3.80
Dropping back in class and has been not far off them last 3 runs. Last win was here and goes well on wet tracks.
RESULTS : Sits just behind space but has every chance.

BEST WIN : Race 4: 11-EXCELLTASTIC $10 WIN 1st W=$4.20 = 10 x 4.2 = $42
Fitter for the 2 runs in which have both been good. Should sit just behind the speed here. Last start went wide and early and stuck on very well in the finish.
RESULTS : Goes for home early, kicks and never in doubt. Nice win.

QUINELLA : Race 5: 1-CARRARA, 10-MY AMICI x $5 1st 1-CARRARA 1st W=$1.70
Short priced favourite in Race 5 should win, just watch out for the leader the (10) who might pinch it and seems to be nice odds.
RESULTS : Short priced one was lucky to win, other pick doesn't lead and doesn't do much.

LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 8 : 14-SHOCKING 3rd W=$4.60
Put in a Shocking run last start when favourite. On the way to the Cups and will probably still do something this spring. 1st up run was OK, flopped 2nd up which wasn’t a huge surprise - he drops back, needs speed on, needs them to be running on and most of all think he really needs a big track as he takes time to wind up. Lay him tonight, get on him when he gets to a bigger track.
RESULTS : Got too far back, but runs on well late and is now worth following. Probably wins next time out on a big track.


TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
ALL UP PLACE BET x $5
Race 3: 3-RUNNING RIOT 2nd W=$3.80, P=$1.60
Race 4: 11-EXCELLTASTIC 1st W=$4.20, P=$1.70
Race 5: 10-MY AMICI
Race 6: 4-TURFFONTEIN
Taking some insurance here in case our win bets don’t get up. Think there are two good value rough chances tonight Race 5: 10-MY AMICI and Race 6: 4-TURFFONTEIN, so take them all up and hopefully will be running for a nice collect into the last leg.
RESULTS : Start off OK, but our two roughies don't do much.

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $72
NET : $+22

The Tips:

Race 1: 1-CERBERUS GAL, 9-STATUS SYMBOL, 8-SHE COMMANDS
Race 2: 7-SET TO POUNCE, 1-COMMON INTEREST, 5-ORINOCO
Race 3: 3-RUNNING RIOT, 4-SPARKLING SATINE, 9-KEEPING SCORE
Race 4: 11-EXCELLTASTIC, 9-LA ROCKET, 2-TEARS I CRY
Race 5: 1-CARRARA, 10-MY AMICI, 8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE
Race 6: 7-MIC MAC, 5-LUCKY SECRET,4-TURFFONTEIN
Race 7: 7-AVENUE, 8-LUCE DEL MARE, 6-MISS BELLEZZA
Race 8: 11-MACKNUCKLE, 3-JOLLE’S SHINJU, 6-YOUNG CENTAUR


RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-CERBERUS GAL
9-STATUS SYMBOL 2nd W=$9.70
8-SHE COMMANDS 3rd W=$46.40 *** nice value place getter ***

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
7-SET TO POUNCE 2nd W=$3.80
1-COMMON INTEREST 1st W=$1.90
5-ORINOCO 3rd W=$6.40

Quinella : $3.60
Trifecta : $19.70

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
3-RUNNING RIOT 2nd W=$3.80
4-SPARKLING SATINE 1st W=$4.50
9-KEEPING SCORE

Quinella : $3.60

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
11-EXCELLTASTIC 1st W=$4.20 *** best win ****
9-LA ROCKET SCR
2-TEARS I CRY

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
1-CARRARA 1st W=$1.70
10-MY AMICI
8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE 3rd W=$7.50

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
7-MIC MAC
5-LUCKY SECRET
4-TURFFONTEIN

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
7-AVENUE 1st W=$3.00 *** best bet of day ***
8-LUCE DEL MARE
6-MISS BELLEZZA

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
11-MACKNUCKLE
3-JOLLE’S SHINJU
6-YOUNG CENTAUR




RACE 5: BILL STUTT STAKES 1600M GROUP 2 3YO
Tips:
1-CARRARA 1st W=$1.70
10-MY AMICI
8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE 3rd W=$7.50

Others: 4

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 10-MY AMICI
Handy : 1-CARRARA, 4-STAR SCREAM , 7-POINT PAIN
Back : 2-EXTRA ZERO, 3-UMANUGGET, 6-RED COLOSSUS, 8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE, 9-ROSE DARMORE

Chances:
1-CARRARA is racing in peak form. 1st up here was caught wide and won with something in hand. 2nd up carried a massive weight, went forward and made his own luck and managed to hold them off. On pacers were advantaged that day, and Flem 1400M always tends towards on pacers, but still, was giving the rest of the field 4kgs+ and still managed to beat them. Looks extremely well suited under these weight conditions today. Wet track winner, yet to miss a place in 7 starts. Small field here, on pacer, at MV under lights which is often an on pacers track. Pretty hard to fault. Going to start very, very short only query is up 200M again, but looks to have these covered. Hard to beat. 1st W=$1.70
4-STAR SCREAM was very well backed last start and rewarded punters with nice on pace win. Did fail at only start on wet track. There isn’t much depth here apart from the top weight so camping on pace and on the basis on last start win he looks a likely place getter. Not sure he can beat the topweight though. Rough.
8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE is one of 3 coming through the Adel race. Plus with them is that they have had the 1600M run this time in, against most of these that are stepping up in distance. Absolutely flew home in tough competitive race last start when dropped well back from outsider barrier in big field. Suspect will race more handy tonight. Largely unknown on wet ground. Represents the new form line – and think the (1) has the Melb runners covered on form so the Adel runners are the only dangers. Chance. 3rd W=$7.50
10-MY AMICI is another coming through the Adel race. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has had the 1600M run and should still have more improvement coming off that run. They ran along quickly last start which set it up for the backmarkers. Has been around the money most starts, looks the only leader here and will dictate this race. Genuine rough chance, and only danger to the (1) we can see. Be wary of this one – may cause the upset, especially if on pacers are winning.

Place:
3-UMANUGGET is fitter for the 2 runs in and stuck on OK behind the (1) here 1st up. Does met that one 1.5kgs worse off and was comfortably beaten by it. 2nd up here we ranked it as Lay of the Day – opened favourite but drifted, dropped well back in small field and only just got going very, very late. Did have to carry big weight that day, so meets the (4) a whopping 4.5 kgs better off. Has won on wet ground. Think he will probably go a little better tonight, extra distance should suit, wet track is OK and looked last start like he is just a grinding one, so slogging 1600M probably is his go. Should be running on. Place
6-RED COLOSSUS has had only the 2 starts but is showing some potential. Winner on wet ground 1st up, then wasn’t far off them at Flem. Blinkers go on and represents unknown quantity on the up. Watch market to see if stable likes him?. Does meet the (1) 4kgs worse off though from last run. Likely improver – might drop back as well in small field though with not much speed. Place.

Sacking:
2-EXTRA ZERO is 2nd up and up 400M onto a wet track which is probably a challenge. Extra distance should suit but you would think probably needs this run as well. No 2nd W=$11.20
5-RIVER'S LANE is fitter for the 3 runs in over in Adel, but is still stepping up 400M to the mile here. Has been carrying weight over there and going OK. 1st time past 1200M, never been on a wet track, probably drops back in small field and doubtful form is good enough for this. Seems like a strange preparation going into this race. Passing. 4th W=$60.60
7-POINT PAIN is fitter for the 2 runs in, and was outclassed down the straight last start. Up 400M here. Can race handy ?. Probably watch market to see if stable thinks he has any chance, but probably prefer to let run.
9-ROSE DARMORE wasn’t really in the market last start and run accordingly. Has had the 5 runs in now and last two has been disappointing over these longer trips so a bit hard to make a case for her over 1600M again tonight. Others have more improvement. No

Summary: Small field for this race and the topweight is going to start very, very short. Should win – in form, extremely well weighted, on pacer. Just depends if there is any upside to those who have had only had a few starts and might suddenly improve, so maybe watch the betting moves.

In a small field 10-MY AMICI looks the leader and should be able to dictate the speed here. Note Oliver is also on board so if the race is up for pinching he will be able to do it. 1-CARRARA should sit right on the speed and put himself into the finish. The (1) really should win, is going to start very short though. Just watch out though if on pacers are winning cause think the 10-MY AMICI is a genuine upset chance, should be fitter for the 1600M run should lead easily and dictate. So if you are the type who backs short priced favourites definitely have a saver on the (10) and take both in the quadrella. Else take the quinella or back the better value one each way. 8-MISS WITH ATTITUDE the other chance if they are running on OK, think the (1) has the Melbourne runners well and truly covered.

One to risk:
Roughie: 10-MY AMICI
The Key : Small field – watch the leader

RESULTS : A more genuine pace than expected and our roughie doesn't get anywhere near the lead and does nothing. Short priced favourite 1-CARRARA extremely lucky to win in narrow photo finish. Likely to struggle in the Caulfield Guineas on that run. 2nd place getter 2-EXTRA ZERO still plenty of improvement to come and worth following.

RACE 6: MANIKATO STAKES 1200M GROUP 1 WFA
Tips:
7-MIC MAC
5-LUCKY SECRET
4-TURFFONTEIN

Others: 13, 6

Pace: EVEN ONLY
Leaders : 5-LUCKY SECRET, 9-SWIFT ALLIANCE
Handy : 1-APACHE CAT, 4-TURFFONTEIN, 7-MIC MAC, 8-SOLO FLYER, 11-RUSSETING
Back : 2-DUPORTH, 3-DANLEIGH, 6-NICCONI, 10-SECRET FLYER, 12-PHELAN READY, 13-WANTED

Chances:
4-TURFFONTEIN was probably helped by the debacle at the start in his Group 1 victory last week. Still he has been consistently around in these types of races over the last year and he is a honest trier. Ran a ripper race in Group1 sprint down the straight last spring when swooped and looked the winner. Probably is at best over slightly longer though. Definitely needs some give in the ground and wet track is a big bonus for him. He can race mid field, has drawn out to get a clear run, is fit and in form – think he is going to run a race again here and put him in as a strong chance.
5-LUCKY SECRET was super impressive in grinding home to win last week in Syd. Carried a big weight, was drifting out on the wrong leg the other way of going and still nailed it on the line. Big win. That was a mad dash trip after being scratched here two weeks ago when track was too firm. Won 7 from 8 here and 5 from 5 this track and distance. There is actually not that much speed here and think that suits him – a lot of his wins have been easy kills camped on the pace, but given the right race he will always win it. Can throw the race away when looks the winner if he strikes the lead too early. Think he is going to get this race run to suit tonight. Go well.
6-NICCONI could be a boom sprinter on the rise. Stable has a very high opinion of him and he seemed to live up to that opinion with swooshing win from well back 1st up here. Is 2nd up and up 200M. Only concern might be that with not much speed in this race they go slow up front and pinch a winning break on him – especially if the track is favouring leaders. Could be something special (actually he has been compared to SPECIAL), so has to go in, got slight reservations might not get race run to suit tonight though. Chance. 3rd W=$4.30
7-MIC MAC has been wisely dropped back to the sprints after finding one better when tried over more ground. Won 7 from 9, stack of ability Obvious question mark is how he handles the drop back from 1600M to 1200M, which is a fair challenge, especially in just two weeks. But think because he is an on pace type he should be fine. There is not much speed here, and think he should still be able to take a forward position. Unknown on genuine wet ground. Looks like he is going to start around the $5 mark and think that is pretty appealing. Strong chance.
13-WANTED is the other 3YO with no weight and worthy of consideration in this field. 2nd up, but stays at the 1200M and 1st up run was pretty good when made boom filly work for it down the straight. Might be a query on wet ground. Will probably sit back off these and might need some luck to get into the finish. But no weight and really liked the 1st up run so goes in as a genuine chance. 4th W=$25.30

Place:
1-APACHE CAT is a proven champion spinter who would still probably beat these on his best. Proven on wet ground which is a plus and drawn out – think he is best racing on pace and out in space - means he will get a clear crack at them. First up form is pretty good – 4 wins and two placings from 8 first up runs. BUT he has managed to put in some poor runs over the last 18 months – and they have always just about been his fresh runs. His last 3 fresh runs have been, 8th – when $2 fav, 9th when $4.80 and 3rd when $3 fav – and he has placed every other start since apart from his fresh runs. Has had a good trial this time in, so that might make a difference. 1200M probably suits, he seems to get left a bit flat footed these days over shorter trips. Probably too good to say he can’t win, but suspect he might lack some dash 1st up again tonight and prefer place only.
9-SWIFT ALLIANCE is another sprinter on the up and now won last 4 starts straight (which does probably mean he is due to lose). Strong win down the straight last start when he probably came down the faster outside rail, but the inside seemed to be well ahead in the last 100M so was a decent performance to run them down. Has won on wet ground and can race handy – might even be the leader here as can’t see anything drawn inside him going forward. Is gradually going through his classes and taking that one extra step up today. Just got a feeling he is due to loose and is probably going to happen when he steps up to stronger grades. Will be thereabouts, elevate if leaders are winning as he probably leads here, else prefer place chance.
10-SECRET FLYER is a favourite of ours and put in a huge performance to win 1st up. Difference 2nd up was that he drew an inside barrier and dropped a lot further back – still finished on very well, but had given the others too much of a head start. Yet to be unplaced this track. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Looks like he handles wet ground OK – but only runs have been in very weak grade. Drawn inside here again is a challenge – doesn’t seem to be much speed up front here and can see him struggling to get a clear run. Prefer place.

Sacking:
2-DUPORTH is a Syd visitor 1st up, who was tried over the mile as a 3YO, but seemed to go better as a sprinter over the winter. Probably a query on wet ground on previous form. Does drop a fair way out of ground and suspect reverse way of going, under lights, in a field with actually not that much speed is going to give these too much of a head start. No
3-DANLEIGH is a consistent Syd sprinter who is probably better on wet ground. 1st up here, has had two barrier trials as a warm up. Placed 4 from 6 1st up – but yet to win one- and trying to win a Group 1 1st up here. Main problem here is barrier 1 – is a drop back horse, even though this is a sprint there isn’t that much speed so can’t see them really running along so doubt he is going to get out from the inside. No 1st W=$17.10
8-SOLO FLYER is a Syd visitor who normally goes pretty well fresh and started last campaign with 3 wins on the trot. Can race forward and should be sitting up near the lead here. Wet ground does look a query though and not quite sure he is up to this lot. Passing.
11-RUSSETING is a QLD visitor 1st up who managed a Group 1 win over the winter. 5 times winner at 1200M. Can race handy, but think some others are quicker than her, and has drawn inside and can see her being stuck on the fence just behind the leader here. Looks OK on wet tracks. 1st up, other way of going, MV, night, wet track, Group 1 sprint, just too many challenges for our liking. Passing.
12-PHELAN READY was a controversial scratching behind the barriers last week at Caulfield so this is a catch up race. Probably not an ideal preparation. Always have to be wary of the 3YOs with no weights in these sprint races. Ran on well 1st up, then flopped 2nd up and up in distance which is always allowed. Freshened since then – but was supposed to run in the 1400M Guineas Prelude last week. Does drop out of his ground and can see him giving these too big a start. No 2nd W=$17.30

Summary: Should be a pretty competitive betting race with quite a few chances. Doesn’t seem to be that much speed for a 1200M race – probably 9-SWIFT ALLIANCE leading with 5-LUCKY SECRET camped just outside it (and he does love that spot at MV), 7-MIC MAC, 8-SOLO FLYER sitting behind these. Just be wary if the track is favouring on pacers or not, either way, suspect those racing on the speed here are going to pinch this and the back markers will be running on too late.

Despite the drop in distance happy to go 7-MIC MAC on top here and think he represents value around the $5 mark. Should be able to sit on, or just behind the speed and might show he really is better as a sprinter. 5-LUCKY SECRET was a monster win last start, loves MV, and think he sits just 1 outside the leader here and he loves racing in that position – almost certainly hits the lead just before the turn and goes for home. 4-TURFFONTEIN seems to be way over the odds – currently $26 on Fixed Odds for a last start Group1 winner and wet tracker – looks a great rough chance to us. Happy to bet around these three in a even field with value.

One to risk: 1-APACHE CAT #RED 6th W=$4.80
Roughie: 4-TURFFONTEIN
The Key : Not much speed for a 1200M race.

RESULTS : Pretty much a total wipeout. They end up going pretty fast, then 5-LUCKY SECRET goes for home around the 700M mark and winds them all up. Blanket finish, poor 13-WANTED hit the lead about 100M out and looked the winner and still only ended up fourth as they were swamped on the line. Those in the finish stayed back and bided their time and got runs through the field. Huge run from 6-NICCONI who was always well back, 2nd up and up in distance - will win next start. Worth following 4-TURFFONTEIN as well who was knocked over twice in the last 250M and still only 2L away from them.
 
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