CAULFIELD : MEMSIE STAKES - 29th Aug 2009 Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWER OR TWO - Rail: OUT 9M Betting Portfolio ($50): Earlier this week Melbournians received warning of a major storm event. In reality, they were just warning it was actually going to rain, in case we had forgotten how the water from the sky thingy works. Weather since has been on the warm side and windy, so track is drying out nicely and will be on the improve. Shower or two forecast, but track should remain the same or improve - just watch out in case tracks ends up quite firm like it did last week at MV. Last meeting here two weeks ago with rail OUT 6M the track raced perfectly and they could win from anywhere. Should get the same today. Pretty tough program, in particular the last couple of races with big fields and lots of horses resuming, so expect some value results. Spreading the bets around a bit to try and get a collect in an even program RESULTS : Solid downpour most of morning takes the edge off the track. They scout off the rails most of the day, yet a lot of the winners stick closer to the rails so they were definitely coming too wide. Even racing otherwise. A few horses went too wide and too early to the supposedly better ground and probably lost their winning chance. BEST BET : Race 6: 3-EL SEGUNDO $15 WIN Proven WFA performer with the brilliant turn of foot to overcome what is probably going to be a slowly run WFA 1400M. Slashing run first up when not really pushed to the line, meets the favourite on much better weights terms and best form is fresh. Keen to have a bet. RESULTS : Even run, not far off them, but doesn't finish it off. BEST WIN : Race 2: 6-LEICA DING $10 WIN 4th W=$5.00 Fitter for the 2 runs in and both have been excellent, was making a lot of ground late last start. Only lightly raced with a good win/place strike rate, has form as a stayer, but looks like will be just as competitive over these shorter trips. If gets some speed on should win on form. RESULTS : Not far off them, took a little while to get clear and was on inside probably worse going. Maybe give another chance BEST EACH WAY : Race 4: 11-MOST IMMEDIATE $5EW Only had the 2 runs, hopelessly unlucky 1st start when had to change course multiple times in the straight and still finished on well. Well supported last start when battled on OK on slow track at Sandown. Back on dry track, well drawn and probably on the improve so should be in the finish at odds RESULTS : Doesn't do anything. QUINELLA : Race 5: 8# 5,6,11,12,13 x $2 = $10 Playing favourites, but 8-MISS SCARLATTI is pretty consistent, lobs on pace and is just about always in the finish. Sure to be some value in the quinella in an even field. RESULTS : Funnily run race won by rank outsider. They all scouted very wide whilst the winner cut the corner. Give 8-MISS SCARLATTI another chance who went very wide, 2nd up and was right in the finish till last 50M. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 9-JUNGLE RULER $2.50 EW 1st W=$12.20, P=$3.10 = $38.25 Can’t believe we are tipping this one, his form hasn’t been the best for a while. But he jumps and runs, doesn’t seem to be much pressure here and can be hard to run down leaders over Caulf 1400M. Meets a field of mainly 1st uppers and he might scoot along and run them off their feet. RESULTS : Nice value get out in the last. Race run as predicted, leader jumps and runs, and guess when you really don't like a horse and he still jumps out of the form guide as as the likely winner then it probably has a darn good chance. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $38.25 NET : $-11.75 The Tips: Race 1: 2-SALINAS, 8-RECORRIDO, 3-I NEED TO FLY Race 2: 6-LEICA DING, 2-PARTIVA, 4-SILENT SOPHIA Race 3: 4-DELYARA, 1-ANNESONG, 7-RED FLAIR Race 4: 11-MOST IMMEDIATE, 3-COME HITHER, 1-STARSPANGLEDBANNER Race 5: 8-MISS SCARLATTI, 6-MISS MAREN, 12-VANDALO Race 6: 3-EL SEGUNDO, 11-MIC MAC, 9-WHOBEGOTYOU Race 7: 7-COLONEL PARKER, 1-LET GO THOMMO, 4-MASKED ASSASSIN Race 8: 17-ALL CHEVAL (emerg), 9-JUNGLE RULER, 12-EXCELLTASTIC, 4-MAJESTICAL RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 2-SALINAS 1st W=$2.40 8-RECORRIDO 2nd W=$4.50 3-I NEED TO FLY Quinella : $5.30 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 6-LEICA DING 2-PARTIVA 2nd W=$5.60 4-SILENT SOPHIA RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 4-DELYARA 1-ANNESONG 7-RED FLAIR RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 11-MOST IMMEDIATE 3-COME HITHER 1-STARSPANGLEDBANNER 1st W=$4.50 RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 8-MISS SCARLATTI 6-MISS MAREN 12-VANDALO RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 3-EL SEGUNDO 11-MIC MAC 1st W=$2.80 9-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=$4.10 Quinella : $5.10 RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 7-COLONEL PARKER 1-LET GO THOMMO 4-MASKED ASSASSIN 2nd W=$12.80 RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 9-JUNGLE RULER 1st W=$12.20 *** best rough and nice value get out in last race *** 12-EXCELLTASTIC 4-MAJESTICAL RACE 6: MEMSIE STAKES 1400M GROUP 2 WFA Tips: 3-EL SEGUNDO 11-MIC MAC 1st W=$2.80 9-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=$4.10 Quinella : $5.10 Others: 7 Pace: VERY SLOW Leaders : 11-MIC MAC Handy : 3-EL SEGUNDO, 5-VALEDICTUM, 6-ORANGE COUNTY, 7-SEA BATTLE, 12-ZARITA Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 2-VIEWED, 4-FIUMICINO, 8-BAUGHURST, 9-WHOBEGOTYOU, 10-VON COSTA DE HERO Chances: 3-EL SEGUNDO has been nursed through injury and returned with an absolutely slashing run 1st up when he was flying home with serious intent and wasn’t really pushed out to the line. Gave the short priced favourite here, the (11) a whopping 8kgs that day and was only beaten a little over 1L. Meets it 7.5 kgs better here which is a huge turn around. Normally does drop well back in his races, drawn nicely here and severe lack of speed in this so wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit around mid field. Won this in 2006, and 4th in 2007 off very similar form. His fresh form is usually his best, his first couple of runs each time in are usually his best and has been known to hit flat spots later in his campaign. From memory has struggled on really firm track before ? . Think he is right in this, on weights, class WFA horse with sprint to win this from behind, and on a repeat of 1st up run, and with his good fresh form think he is a strong winning chance. 7-SEA BATTLE is a pretty honest and versatile 1400M to 1600M horse with still a bit of upside about him. He can race on pace, or drop back. Had the full year off since a golden Spring 2008 – 5 starts for 2 wins, 2 seconds and a fourth, and his Toorak performance when fourth and given a very hard run on the speed was outstanding. Nominated for Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate so he could step up another level this time in. Bit hard to know how forward he is going to be 1st up, but stable is having a purple patch and dominated last meeting here. Probably better in handicaps – then again most of these are. From barrier 1 is capable of going forward in a muddling run race so might do something here. Rough chance. 9-WHOBEGOTYOU was the dominant 3YO of last spring who carried on with some useful form over the Syd Autumn. 2nd up here, stays at the 1400M after good 1st up run here in Liston when he was just dying on his run on the line. Class performer, current top pick for Cox Plate, but remains to be seen if he can be as dominant as he was in his 3YO spring season. Did measure up to open class during Syd autumn. Main concern is his racing pattern – last start he was suited when JUNGLE RULER strung them along and made it a fast staying 1400M so he could run on. Today is going to be a muddling 1400M WFA race with little or no speed which is not going to suit. Dropping back just means he is not going to win as many as he should - often going to be unlucky, running on too late, giving a class on pace one too much of a head start, or finding trouble. Might step out today and prove he is going to be dominant this spring, or may run on too late again. Just got a niggling tingling in the punter senses that he may turn into one of those with huge talent who just ran on too late - so end up in the placings without winning and sucking a lot of our hard earned money. So obviously a solid chance in this, but probably going to take him on a little because of his racing pattern. Chance with strong reservations. 2nd W=$4.10 11-MIC MAC is the potential star on the rise and could go right to the top this spring. Though, have to say, assumption is that he is already there which might be an early call. Won 6 from 7 with only failure in Syd at end of last campaign. Big plus with this one is that he is an on pacer with a brilliant turn of foot, drawn well, muddling speed in this and should lead, dictate the speed and sprint clear on these you would think. Easy win 1st up when won with something in hand, but does meet the (3) far worse off on weights. Often these WFA races are won by on pace sprint types so this race does look to be all his IF he is up to the class. And that is the question. Cause has he really beaten that much so far? No doubt has the potential, deserves to start favourite, but think he is starting under the odds with all the hype. This is his first time at WFA in open class, if he lives up to the potential he wins, but just make sure you are getting the odds on his form and not his potential. Strong chance – not sure he is value though. 1st W=$2.80 Place: 2-VIEWED is last year’s Melb Cup winner who went along OK in 4 runs during the Syd Autumn. Did mix form before Cup win, Syd form was nice and consistent though so might actually be competitive in some of the lead up races this year. Fresh form is OK, normally runs on fresh and apart from the two obvious picks there isn’t much depth to this field. Prob does prefer a little give in the ground, even allowing for Cup win on dry track. Likely to drop back and little to no speed here, but will probably be working home OK and more scope than some of these so rough place chance. 4th W=$29.40 6-ORANGE COUNTY is fitter for the 3 runs in and has the edge in race fitness on most of these. Right up to these in feature 1400M races, struggles at the 1600M, probably better in handicaps than in WFA events. Worked home nicely in 1st two runs this time in, then got hopelessly cramped for room last start and should’ve finished a lot closer. Don’t think he could’ve won though, just been amongst the placings. 6 times winner this distance. Prefers a little bit of give in the ground – just be wary of how much this track dries out. Also, as we unfortunately pointed out last start (when we backed him), his best form is when making runs down the middle of the track, and he can find trouble from inside barriers – which he did. . Drawn inside today, likely muddling pace, might struggle to get clear again. Note jockey change though. Just think against these at WFA although he is going along OK and has race fitness place is best option. 10-VON COSTA DE HERO is a worthy contender for the Most Frustrating Horse Of The Year title. Stack of ability, ambles out of the barriers all the time, drops back, runs on late. Repeat as required. Not much luck 1st up carrying weight when dropped out again, had plenty to give, but had to switch around the whole field and run on. 2nd up and up 200M into this. Has been competitive at this level before with excellent (and of course unlucky) 1st up placing in Group 2 sprint last Jan. Can just see the same thing happening here again, will drop back, will be a muddling pace, probably runs on OK but going to be giving some of these too much of a start. Solid place chance though and definitely put in trifectas and first fours as 1st up run was pretty good. Place. Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the 2007 Melb Cup winner who has been raced very sparingly since. Just the 4 runs in the 2 years since then, only got 2 runs in last spring campaign before being injured, and the usual brief appearance during autumn for a jog trot around the track this year. 6 starts 1st for duck egg – another duck egg – more duck eggs, and likely to need this run. No 4-FIUMICINO is a Syd stayer whose best form is on wet ground and is 1st up here today – with little or no fresh form to recommend it. No. 5-VALEDICTUM has had a bit of a break since his Dubai holiday where he made the trip worth while. Honest 1400M – 1600M handicapper who is not suited at WFA. Was quite unlucky in a few of the feature 1400M-1600M races last spring where he got too far out of his ground and flew home. Can pull out a run fresh – best chance would be if he pressed forward here and sat up on the speed, but has been dropping far too far back and making it too hard for himself in a lot of his runs. Prefer to risk. 8-BAUGHURST is an honest stayer who had a ripper of a Spring in 2008, being competitive in pretty much everything he ran in. Tried to step up another level in the Autumn and didn’t quite make it as a Group WFA horse. At WFA level, 1st up over 1400M probably will need the run here. No 12-ZARITA ran on OK 1st up here over 1400M when did settle back further than expected from wide barrier. Solid on pace staying mare when right, contested all the top races over the last year but hasn’t really done enough to recommend her since her 3YO days. Probably races a lot handier here today, but wait till she finds some real form. No. 3rd W=$39.60 Summary: These early WFA races are often run at a muddling speed, so you want to look towards the on pacers, or those with the WFA brilliant burst of speed. Back markers are going to struggle in this race. Doesn’t seem to be any pace here at all - 11-MIC MAC probably leads or sits right on the speed and is likely to be very hard to run down when he sprints from the front. Maybe 7-SEA BATTLE, 12-ZARITA can go forward, but that’s about it . Despite the slow speed, quite keen on the proven WFAer with the brilliant finish 3-EL SEGUNDO. Is taking it slowly back from injury, but 1st up run was sensational, comes into this really well off at weights from that race, best form is fresh and loves Caulfield. Can see the 11-MIC MAC sitting on the slow pace, kicking clear in the straight and 3-EL SEGUNDO coming out and running him down. Obvious danger is the (11), just get the feeling he is going to start very very short on the tote and prefer to take what seems like generous odds about the proven performer. 9-WHOBEGOTYOU the other obvious pick, but think his racing style is going to mean he will be running on too late if this is a slowly run race. Quite keen to have a bash at the top pick at over each way odds. One to risk: 6-ORANGE COUNTY Roughie: 7-SEA BATTLE The Key :Muddling speed in WFA races RESULTS : Pretty strong win by 11-MIC MAC, sits up on lead off the rails, does get some pressure, but kicks and finds. Still not sure he is going to run out 1600M though. 9-WHOBEGOTYOU runs on strongly and probably turns the tables next start over more distance, or on a wider track. Still bit concerned he is going to spend most of the spring running on late into the placings and not win as many as he should. Very solid fresh run from 2-VIEWED who goes forward early and adds value to the First Four.

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