MOONEE VALLEY: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 11TH SEPTEMEBER 2010 Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE Betting Portfolio ($50): Finally the weather has started to warm up a bit in Melbourne this week, but there is still plenty of rain about. Absolute stack of rain in the last month, and still a few showers heading into the weekend, so whilst this track probably won’t deteriorate any further, probably not much chance it is going to get better than the current SLOW(6) – a genuine wet track. Last meeting here with the Rail OUT 4M was a dynamite leader’s track with all the winners either leading or coming through on the rails. Rail goes back to the TRUE today, which means there is 4M of protected ground that has not been raced on for a while which is probably going to be the best going. However, normally when the rail goes back to the TRUE at MV it normally favours the runners on coming home swooping on the camber on the turn. So hopefully, we should get even racing and every horse should have it’s chance – maybe just tend slightly towards the runners on. Not a great program to have a bet on – Races 1,4,5 are wide open with lots of 1st up runners and will probably see something come out at long odds and win 1st up. Race 2 is a shocker. So that really leaves only the last 4 races that are worth having a serious bet on . RESULTS : You need to be on the ball to be a punter these days. As warned track did strongly favour those running on out wide, to the extent that no-one wanted to lead in the main race. No - you go first. No - YOU go first. Read the racing pattern correctly so tips went extremely well - 4 winners on top and a nice roughie in the selections. BEST BET : Race 7: 5-SHOOT OUT $15 WIN X 3rd W=$2.70 Form horse of the spring, who seemed to hit a flat spot around the turn last start and the first two home grabbed a break on him, but was coming home hard. Increase in distance will suit, just have to close our eyes and hope he gets around the tight turn at MV OK. Pretty confident he will run over the top of them though. RESULTS : Was never going to win the way the race was run - he ended up behind the speed on the inside, which was totally the wrong spot to be. Poor tactical ride by the jockey. But he did race like a stayer wanting distance and a big roomy track. BEST WIN : Race 9: 14-SPACECRAFT $10 WIN 1st W=$1.90 = $1.90 x 10 = $19 Talented type who might go onto better things this spring. Has been very well handled, was put away after fantastic run in the AAMI Vase last spring and that might pay dividends this spring. Fitter for the 2 runs in, one on the up, just concern is might start a little short – probably want $4 or better. RESULTS : Got backed and backed and backed and started at ridiculous odds - far too short. Dominant win though, covering ground out wide always had race in his keeping. He is on the up and going extremely well. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-AVIENUS $5 EW 1st W=$11.00, P=$3.50 = 14.5 x 5 = $72.50 Very consistent type who has hit a pretty strong field here, but she deserves a crack at this type of race. Maintains an excellent win/place strike rate, but should be a lot of improvement still to come after stepping up in distance rapidly 2nd run from a let up last start. Always tries hard, there is not much speed here and she can race handy if required. One of the classier ones might beat her home, but think she is worth something each way at around $15. RESULTS : Simply lovely - it dosn't get much better than sitting on a 10-1 shot, who is camped effortslessly on a tear away leader, whilst the rest of the field is lagging 6 lengths behind. Never in doubt and great ride by the jockey. We like this horse ! QUINELLA : Race 4: 3-BIG SPIRIT # 9,10,11(scr),12,14 x $2 = $10 X $2 SCR - / 1st 12-VENUS WORLD W=$34.70 This one is racing very well, has been up a while, but is holding his form. Forgive Caulfield run 2 starts back when up in class and stuck to inside on worse going. Drawn out, can go forward and sit in plenty of space on speed – always like them to be in clear running over the sprint trips at MV – too easy to get squashed back on the rails in big fields. Should be in the finish, but chance something at odds will come out and run a slashing run fresh, so quinellas with some value chances seem to be the way to go. RESULTS : Actually not far off a collect here - we found the value winner in the quinella, and these two looked likely running the quinella on the home turn, but the (3) faded badly on the worse going on the inside. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 1 : 4-ROADTRAIN at around $5 X W=$5.30 Winner of three from three, but last two have been on Geelong synthetic track (boring!), at shorts odds and not overly convincing. Faces biggest challenge here today. Open field, lots on the improve, striking a wet track for the first time – our pet theory at the moment is that you don’t back Geelong synthetic track winners on wet tracks. Drawn wide and will need luck. RESULTS : Starts 2nd fav in the field, out the back and never looks likely. Easy lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FLEXI QUADRELLA : 1,3,7 / 5 / 1,5,7,8,14 / 6,8,14 x $5 = 11.11% 1st 3-HAY LIST W=$2.30 / 3rd 5-SHOOT OUT W=$2.70 / 1st 8-AVIENUS W=$11.00 / 1st 14-SPACECRAFT W=$1.90 There might actually be some value in the quadrella today, cause there is a chance of an upset in Races 6 and 8 and most people will go narrow in those legs – so go against the norm and hope for a result. Take the three selections 1,3,7 in the 1st leg – a little worried about the 1-REWARD FOR EFFORT who is the likely favourite but might get boxed in from inside barrier and bit of a doubt on a wet track, so will be value if it gets beaten. Happy to go one out on 5-SHOOT OUT in the main race. Everyone will be going narrow in the 3rd leg with 5-GHOSTMILK, but this is a pretty strong even field, so throw in those that are 1600M race fit, and come home on the 3 selections in the last. RESULTS : Quaddie didn't pay much, but we weren't far off - just bought undone by our anti WHOBEGOTYOU crusade. We found the value winner in the 3rd leg, actually the 5 selections in that race covered the Quinella ($94), the Trifecta ($1072) and the First Four ($3527). Hate it when that happens. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $93.50 NET : $+43.50 The Tips: Race 1: 5-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT, 2-SERVANT, 7-PITT STREET Race 2: 3-CRABS, 7-WHY DO YOU ASK, 1-KERDEM Race 3: 6-CRISTALLO, 1-DUTCHY’S LASS, 3-PARISIAN SUNRISE Race 4: 3-BIG SPIRIT, 14-MISS CHATTER, 12-VENUS WORLD Race 5: 2-ELUSIVE TOUCH, 8-TRUE PERSUASION, 3-VEEWAP Race 6: 3-HAY LIST, 7-ROSTOVA, 1-REWARD FOR EFFORT Race 7: 5-SHOOT OUT, 4-PRECEDENCE, 8-TYPHOON TRACY Race 8: 8-AVIENUS, 5-GHOSTMILK, 1-LADY LYNETTE Race 9: 14-SPACECRAFT, 8-JUST LOOK, 6-ABOVE AVERAGE RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 5-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT 2-SERVANT 7-PITT STREET RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 3-CRABS 1st W=$3.00 7-WHY DO YOU ASK 1-KERDEM 2nd W=$16.90 Quinella : $22.30 RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 6-CRISTALLO 3rd W=$4.80 1-DUTCHY’S LASS 3-PARISIAN SUNRISE RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 3-BIG SPIRIT 14-MISS CHATTER 12-VENUS WORLD 1st W=$34.70 *** nice value winner *** RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 2-ELUSIVE TOUCH 3rd W=$2.80 8-TRUE PERSUASION 2nd W=$4.60 3-VEEWAP RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 3-HAY LIST 1st W=$2.30 7-ROSTOVA 1-REWARD FOR EFFORT 3rd W=$3.80 RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 5-SHOOT OUT 3rd W=$2.70 4-PRECEDENCE 8-TYPHOON TRACY 2nd W=$3.40 RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 8-AVIENUS 1st W=$11.00 *** best each way bet of the day *** 5-GHOSTMILK 1-LADY LYNETTE 3rd W=$5.20 RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 14-SPACECRAFT 1st W=$1.90 *** best win bet of day - bit short though *** 8-JUST LOOK 6-ABOVE AVERAGE RACE 7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES GROUP 2 1600M WFA Tips: 5-SHOOT OUT 3rd W=$2.70 4-PRECEDENCE 8-TYPHOON TRACY 2nd W=$3.40 Others: 2 Pace: LEADER DICATATES Leaders : 8-TYPHOON TRACY Handy : 4-PRECEDENCE Back : 1-ZIPPING, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU, 3-HISSING SID, 5-SHOOT OUT, 6-RUNDLE, 7-BRIGHTNIGHT Chances: 2-WHOBEGOTYOU is a consistent type with talent, just he doesn’t win as many as he should cause he is always coming from behind, either too late, or finding trouble. So we are pushing for a name change to WHOBEGOTSECOND. His 1st up run looked pretty good, but he got the perfect cart in behind them, came out at the right time and loomed like he is going to win and go straight past the winner – and maybe he should have? Either he just has a habit or running second, or SO YOU THINK is something extraordinary (which is possible). Just felt he was entitled to win last start given his run – and he didn’t. Last 14 starts we count 2 wins – both at short odds in gimme small WFA fields, and a whopping 7 seconds. He won this race last year in a canter, 3rd up, against a small weak field – this field is probably slightly stronger. Best form is probably at MV, probably a doubt over him further than the mile. 1st up run was promising so guess he might go on with it – this race is pretty much is cup of tea, small field, WFA, 1600M, MV so if he doesn’t win this today wouldn’t back him for the rest of the spring. To be honest probably won’t back him for the rest of spring - so if you like him, don’t let our anti WHOBEGOTYOU crusade put you off. Strong chance today. 1st W=$2.90 4-PRECEDENCE is one of Bart’s who put the writing on the wall with a solid 1st up run at Caulfield. Still fairly lightly raced so might go on a steep improvement curve this Spring. Interestingly, he can race handy which will be a big plus in a small field and he is owned by the Dato man himself. He won 2nd up this track and distance last preparation. Ran in this race last year and didn’t do much – but probably was not going as well. Obviously WFA is the big question mark, but you know what? We can knock the chances of most of the main chances in this, he could sit handy, he seems to be on the improve, think he is probably worth a rough saver bet in a race where all the focus is going to be on the main three. Rough. 4th W=$15.90 5-SHOOT OUT really has stepped up this spring. Stayer who kicked off with an impressive on pace kick and win effort fresh, ran them down nicely 2nd up, then funny run last start in the Memsie. He was trapped wide, the first two home seemed to kick on him in the straight and grabbed a winning lead, but he actually finished off the race pretty well and was making good ground on the line. Almost like he hit a flat spot that cost him the race? Like that he has had the 3 runs in and is ahead in fitness on his rivals. Only concern is at trackwork on Tuesday he reportedly practically nearly fell off the edge of the track coming around the home turn and trainer was already talking about giving him another run here before Cox Plate day. But he seems to be the form horse this spring, just needs enough pace on to run over the top of them here. One to beat.3rd W=$2.70 8-TYPHOON TRACY is a super on pace mare who has put in some stunning wins. Only problem is she tends to come unstuck once she goes past 1600M and once she gets into open class WFA. Bit sceptical about the plans to set her for the Cox Plate this spring based on that. OK effort 1st up, trainer had said she wasn’t as forward as she would be normally as they were looking later in spring. Just concerned that they went past her fairly easily last start. Her two wins in open class WFA were in Autumn this year and you could probably argue that they were pretty weak fields – though today is hardly a strong field either. Tried the Liston / Makybe Diva / Underwood last spring and got beaten in all of them – and got run over coming to the line in each of them as well. But she gets a few things in her favour today – small field, not much depth, no speed at all, around MV – really if she is going to go onto the best races this spring she should be able to win this on the way. Too good to write off, looks well suited in this, just got a feeling though she is going to get swamped coming to the line again. Chance. 2nd W=$3.40 Place: Sacking: 1-ZIPPING is a grand old fella who finally got his long over due Group 1 win in the Australia Cup in the Autumn. Been consistent in the quality WFA races for a few years now, Cox Plate placings, Turnbull placings, Mackinnon placings, and of course those 3 x Sandown Classics. Really if you look back over his form you have to say he is vastly under rated. He has kicked off his spring in this race for the last 2 years – and not done much. 1st up form is pretty ordinary, just needs a run or two so passing today. 3-HISSING SID is a handicap stayer who showed early promise but didn’t get step up once he got to a serious spring preparation last year. He was thereabouts in his races last year, but didn’t really threaten to win one. Form over Autumn similarly was consistent without being outstanding. 2nd up here, dropping back in distance, but will struggle at WFA. No 6-RUNDLE is one of the Williams stable as they vainly attempt to have a complete field of 24 Williams runners in the navy blue colours in this years 150th Melbourne Cup. Very lightly raced and obviously plenty to come. SCR from Flem last week – assume it was because of the wet track and not because they thought he would slaughter a WFA field the week after. Probably need the run, will want further and back to handicaps. No 7-BRIGHTNIGHT is one of Bart’s that went OK 1st up at WFA, but still very well held by the main three going around here. Will drop back and not suited in a sit and sprint WFA race. No Summary: Interestingly – this race changed name from the Feehan Stakes in 2005 – yet the Racing Victoria website still shows it as the Feehan Stakes in the form history ? Pretty straight forward race – small WFA field, normally these are gimmes for the favourite, but here we have three solid chances with very little between them. And the main problem is – we can seriously knock each of the three main chances - 2-WHOBEGOTYOU just has a habit of not winning as often as he should, 5-SHOOT OUT might struggle to get around MV based on his trackwork, and 8-TYPHOON TRACY just seems to get run down when tried at the top WFA level. Obviously 8-TYPHOON TRACY is going to get a soft lead here and should be able to dictate terms in a small WFA field. 4-PRECEDENCE might go forward and put himself into a good position, and the rest will be biding their time out the back. We are happy to stick with 5-SHOOT OUT here, he is the form horse of the spring, really liked the way he finished off last start, and hopefully he will get around the corner OK with the practice run during the week. He looks the safest way of the main three for us. Just because otherwise this is going to be the most boring trifecta in the history of mankind, let’s put in 4-PRECEDENCE for second, think he is on the up, might run better than most expect, and we can knock the chances of some of the main contenders, so does an upset loom?. 8-TYPHOON TRACY has this race for the taking, just not totally convinced on her runs in Spring last year though she is going to be winning a major open class WFA race this year – but this is about the best chance she will get. And obviously, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU, no surprise to see him win, just not sure he is a horse we want to back with any confidence – expect maybe in Exactas. One to risk: - Roughie: 4-PRECEDENCE The Key: Small WFA field – normally the best horse wins. RESULTS : Well we got stung by our anti WHOBEGOTYOU bias. He won with dominance, but he did have everything going his way today - MV, wet track, small field, favouring swoopers, 1600M. Still got some reservations about how he goes for the rest of the spring. Farcial race when connections advise 8-TYPHOON TRACY is not going to lead - and correspondingly she drifted heavily in the bettting - doesn't say much about the confidence of the connections. She has had 5 starts in the spring WFA races and found one better each time - really hard to see her going onto the Cox Plate. Poor tactical ride by jockey on 5-SHOOT OUT who ends up exactly where you don't want to be. Solid run by 4-PRECEDENCE who has better things in store this spring.

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