FLEMINGTON : Derby Day - 29th Oct 2011 Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS – Rail: TRUE Betting Portfolio ($100): And so it begins, a punting feast of a week. Weather has been quite fine in Melbourne this week, but there is proper rain forecast for Friday night and maybe even some storms on Saturday morning. Totally impossible to tell how much rain we are going to get and how it is going to affect the track, but assume we are probably looking at a genuine DEAD(5) track and be prepared to go worse. Often on the first day of these carnivals you can often get a leader biased track with an inside section that has been protected for the main race day. Derby Day is famous for often being a leader’s track. The difference this year is that the rail was TRUE for the Turnbull Stakes meeting (which did strongly favour on pacers), whereas it is normally OUT 9M protecting the inside for Cup Week. Suspect that will make the difference here, the inside has been raced on last meeting here so assume we will at least get even racing. As always at Flem though, on pace and well drawn are big advantages over the 1400M and 1600M starts. Down the straight more often that not it is the middle of the track that is the best so maybe look for swoopers out wide in the straight races. There are a few races with boom short priced favourites who are likely to win, but still plenty of value around in the rest of the day, and we have tried to thrown in some roughies especially in the later races. We are going to double up our betting portfolio with plenty to bet on. Don’t be scared to spread win bets around on a few runners in tough competitive fields. RESULTS : Track comes up a DEAD(5), but nice sunny day with a strong head wind so the track races fairly. The head wind makes it very difficult for those racing on the speed, and most of the races are won by those coming from well back or with cover. Down the straight they continue to try and squeeze into a tiny strip of the track which just makes for appalling racing and lots of hard luck stories. Tips have a great day out - 5 winners on top and value winner in the Derby. BEST BET : Race 3: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.30 TRIFECTA : Race 3: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL / 7-FALLEN ONE / 3,4,5,8 x $10 = 250% 1st 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL W=$1.30 / - / 3rd 4-DOWAGER QUEEN W=$7.60 TRIFECTA : Race 3: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL / 3,4,5,8 / 7-FALLEN ONE /x $10 = 250% Boom filly who is just slaughtering her opposition this spring. Far too short to back to win at $1.30, but we have been going OK this spring by trying to pop the trifecta multiple times straight out in these races with short priced favourites. If you can find the trick place getter you can still get a $30 dividend. The trick place getter here is the (7) who looks to be on the way up, wasn’t far off the rest of these at Caulfield, when she loomed up but just died on the run up in distance. Blinkers on today and suspect she might run a race at $26 and put some value in the trifectas. P.S. If you are keen do the same in Race 4 with 1-SEPOY to win and 2-MASTHEAD as the value place getter. RESULTS : The super filly goes on her winning way with a totally dominant win. Shame she has been injured and won't go on this spring as she would have won by a serious margin in the Oaks. Our value runner does absolutely nothing, and reading this the next day it just seemed like a bloody silly bet - might as well just had a place bet on the (7)!. Oops. Had a case of mug punter's head. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 9-MID SUMMER MUSIC $10 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 8: 9-MID SUMMER MUSIC #2,5,12,13 x $2.50 = $10 X / 2nd 13-RARIFIED W=$15.40, 3rd 2-TEMPLE OF BOOM W=$5.70 This one is a dead set star, extremely honest and genuine, and every time they put her up in class, or up in distance, she just rises to the challenge and seems to be continually on the improve. Handles all track conditions, 1200M form is excellent. They stepped her up in distance here 2 starts back and she was unlucky not to win, coming with a weaving run through the field and coming home all over the top of PINKER PINKER, which looks pretty good form now. Loomed up and looked a threat behind SEPOY last week when not beaten that far, and she did loom up like she was actually going to challenge him. Drawn out is a plus down the straight and suspect she is going to be swooping home late which is what you want. Wide open race so back the win and stack of value in the quinellas. RESULTS : Really poor ride on this one. The field races in a very silly tight bunch down the straight, and jockey elects to go into the middle of the pack at the back rather than sit outside off them and make a clear run. Runs on pretty well without much room and suspect she would have been right in the finish if she got a clear run down the outside. Keep following. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-SANGSTER $10 EW 1st W=$14.80, P=$3.80 = $18.60 x $10 = $186 Think this one really looks a solid each way bet in the main race at around $12. Has form through the right races and last start the jockey simply went too early, went for home before the turn to try and catch his main rival napping, into a fierce head wind and only just got caught on the line. Ridden quieter here today from a nice barrier should be in the finish. RESULTS : We find the nice value winner in the feature race and have a each way bet at odds. Ridden pretty much the same as last start, does go a bit too early and probably lucky to hold on, but just has the turn of foot you want to win a derby. Nice collect. BEST WIN : Race 9: 10-AMAETHON $7.50 EW X The last race looks wide open with plenty of chances. The (10) is the top pick who is a very consistent type whose big advantage is that he just lobs on the speed and always puts himself into the race. Nice win 1st up, and pulled out for a run to get into the race 2nd up and threatened, but just looked like he died on his run a little., Should be much fitter here, 3rd up, and again drawn to just sit behind the speed and put himself into the race. RESULTS : As predicted does get perfect sit behind the speed and dashes through on the rails to kick clear in the straight and look the winner. But they are winning running on all day so it was not the place to be and fades in the last 50M to miss a place even - which was disappointing. Keep following this one. BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 10-SHOWCAUSE $5 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 2: 10-SHOWCAUSE, 3-GREEN MOON x $5 X QUINELLA : Race 2: 10-SHOWCAUSE #4(scr),5,11,12x $2.50 = $10 SCR=$2.50 X / 1st 5-NIWOT W=$8.60, 2nd 11-MACEDONIAN W=$8.90 Always worth looking past the obvious in a capacity field of hard fit stayers and we just think the (10) here looks over the odds at the moment at around $15, and suspect you will get much better on the tote too. Fitter for the 4 runs in, NZ staying form is solid, good effort here 2 starts back and then run in Geelong Cup was actually pretty good when not beaten very far, wide all the way and even though the winner went past him he held the margin all the way to the line. Should lob on speed here and be in this race for a long way at odds. The obvious danger is the Caulfield Cup runner up the (3), who is the one to beat here and will be tough to beat, but dos look a little short at around $3.50. Plenty of value in the quinellas with the other hard fit stayers the (4),(5),(11),(12). RESULTS : All the on pacers in this race stop badly as does this one. Note to self - in tough race take a box quinella instead (paid $40.30) LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 1-MORE JOYOUS at around $2.60 7th W=$2.70 We actually thought we were going out on a bit of a limb here, but looking around the papers this morning quite a few are keen to take this one on. She is the class, dominant filly, and suited under this weight scale, but she just hasn’t been quite as dominant this time in. 1st up she got caught up back in the pack at MV and worked home well. 2nd up she really had to pull out everything to get up and win. 3rd up here, up 200M again, she is drawn wide and does like to race on speed so likely to get caught wide in this. Reported to have picked up at track work this week, but we cannot get the words of the jockey out of our head after her last win, a concerned look and a “she just isn’t going as well this time in”. In a tough, competitive mile race think it is worthwhile going for value and look for the proven 1600M race fit milers – the (16), (10), (8) and (5) all at nice odds. Prefer to be backing others. RESULTS : Nice lay of the day here and the champion mare puts in one of the worse runs of her career. Left exposed on pace into a head wind and one of the first ones beaten in the straight. Jockeys and trainers are such overly optimistic people - when they say negative things you pay attention ! TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 6 : 5,7 / 4,5,8,10,16 x 50 cents = $5 1st 5-SANGSTER W=$14.80, 2nd 7-INDUNA W=$5.70 / 3rd 8-DYSPHONIA W=$22.80, 4th 10-SKYERUSH W=$26.80 Seeing we are taking on the short priced favourite in Race 7, we might as well try and land a value running double. Take our two main chances in the Derby into a wide selection of $20 chances in the Myer and there should be plenty of value if we have read the races right. If not, it’s only $5, so who cares !. RESULTS : Well we got a bit of a bang for our $5 anyway. All over the 1st leg with the value winner and our picks run 1st and 2nd (Quinella pays $43.50). Take on the short priced 1-MORE JOYOUS in the 2nd leg, so a whole range of 20-1 shots running for us so there must have been some nice $100-$200 running double approximates. But unfortunately no glory here. Nice idea though ! SPENT : $100 RETURN : $188.50 NET : $+88.50 The Tips: Race 1: 1-GALAH, 2-HIGHLY RECOMMENDED, 4-MEETHAQ Race 2: 10-SHOWCAUSE, 3-GREEN MOON, 12-MIDNIGHT MARTINI Race 3: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 4-DOWAGER QUEEN, 7-FALLEN ONE Race 4: 1-SEPOY, 2-MASTHEAD, 4-FOXWEDGE Race 5: 8-GLASS HARMONIUM, 12-REKINDLED INTEREST, 1-EFFICIENT Race 6: 5-SANGSTER, 7-INDUNA, 1-MANAWANUI Race 7: 16-MOSHEEN, 10-SKYERUSH, 8-DYSPHONIA Race 8: 9-MID SUMMER MUSIC 2-TEMPLE OF BOOM, 5-PHELAN READY Race 9: 10-AMAETHON, 9-TORIO’S QUEST, 3-THANKGODYOU’REHERE RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 1-GALAH 1st W=$1.30 2-HIGHLY RECOMMENDED 2nd W=$13.60 4-MEETHAQ Quinella : $6.20 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 10-SHOWCAUSE 3-GREEN MOON 12-MIDNIGHT MARTINI RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.30 4-DOWAGER QUEEN 3rd W=$7.60 7-FALLEN ONE RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.20 2-MASTHEAD 4-FOXWEDGE 2nd W=$17.30 Quinella : $5.90 RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 8-GLASS HARMONIUM 1st W=$6.30 12-REKINDLED INTEREST 1-EFFICIENT RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 5-SANGSTER 1st W=$14.80 *** best each way bet of day *** 7-INDUNA 2nd W=$5.70 1-MANAWANUI Quinella : $43.50 RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 16-MOSHEEN 10-SKYERUSH 8-DYSPHONIA 3rd W=$22.80 RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 9-MID SUMMER MUSIC 2-TEMPLE OF BOOM 3rd W=$5.70 5-PHELAN READY RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 10-AMAETHON 9-TORIO’S QUEST SCR 3-THANKGODYOU’REHERE 2nd W=$10.20 RACE 6 : VICTORIA DERBY GROUP 1 2500M 3YO C+G Tips: 5-SANGSTER 1st W=$14.80 7-INDUNA 2nd W=$5.70 1-MANAWANUI Quinella : $43.50 Others: 10,3 Pace: FAST Leaders : 6-PERFECT PUNCH, 9-SCELTO, 10-NIAGARA, 16-MR CHEZ Handy : 1-MANAWANUI, 3-COLLAR, 4-SABRAGE (wide), 11-CORNELL Back : 2-ISOPACH, 7-INDUNA, 8-COSTLY COMMITMENT, 12-EAGLE COMMAND, 13-ZABEELIONAIRE, 14-I FEEL GOOD, 15-RAPIDUS, 17-MUSTANG(emerg), 18-MONSILI (emerg) Chances: 1-MANAWANUI is the short priced favourite for this event and probably deservedly so, but does just look a little on the short side to us. Has the right form for this race, being the winner of the AAMI Vase last start. Form through the spring has been first rate, although most of the races have been non events. Caused a bit of a boil over beating two Sydney spruik horses in the Golden Rose. Beat a field of nobodies in the Stan Fox. Caulfield Guineas run was excellent when fought it out the length of the straight – though thought it should have got to HELMET based on having the sit all the way down the straight. Last start win at MV was a bit of a non event as well, small field, stop start race. Raced on pace before last start when he sat out the back and worked home, obviously they are trying to teach him to settle for the 2500M here today. Distance is the query, but he has the class to win this and more often than not it is the class horse, not the stayers that win this race. Should sit just off the speed here from a good barrier, has the right form, just think he is hard to line up having beaten mediocre fields several times this spring. Strong winning chance, but under the odds for us and we will be looking elsewhere. Chance 5-SANGSTER has been going along very nicely. Eye catching run finishing on very strongly in the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney. Then jockey made a tactical decision to go for home very early in the Normal Robinson, whilst his main rival the (10) was stuck for runs back on the inside. He kicked clear nicely too, and looked home, but just died on the line to be grabbed by the (4). Besides that quite liked the run – think he represents the value here, he looks to have the turn of foot to win a Derby and no doubt they will ride him a lot quieter here from a perfect barrier. It was a really windy day at Caulfield last start, most of the races were won by those with cover or finishing on late, so think his run to go early and kick clear was actually full of merit. Value runner here . Strong chance. 1st W=$14.80 7-INDUNA is one of the Darley runners who has burst rather late onto the scene this spring. Looks to be rapidly improving, only won his maiden 2 starts back then came out and was very impressive in the Geelong Classic. Off a solid tempo he cruised into the race and won with something in hand – it was a genuine staying test and he had them well and truly covered at the end of the race. Seriously we think we have sacked the Geelong Classic winner every year for the last 10 years – check out the form guide history on the website and double check, but this race is just about always, always won by the first 3 home in either the AAMI Vase or the Normal Robinson. So this year is going to be a first – we are actually going to give this one a chance ! Just really liked the win at Geelong, it was a solid staying test and he won like a true classy stayer. Chance. 2nd W=$5.70 10-NIAGARA has a bit of a spruik on him and is going along well, but you just have to wonder if this race is coming up a wee bit too early. Impressive winner in Sydney when led, but it was only a 65 rating race on a slow track in a field of 5, so cannot get too over enthused. Was in the box seat in the Normal Robinson when well backed, but got shuffled back badly before the turn and solid effort to get clear and be coming strongly at the end of the race. Eye catching run. Sure there will be a lot of money for him today and does seem to have a stack of ability. Has drawn barrier 18 here though, does like to go forward, so is going to have to work early to get handy or even to the lead. Only had the 3 runs in too – and that’s unusual, the winner of this race invariably has had 4 or more runs in. Does seem to have a stack of ability and is a Normal Robinson place getter so do have to respect, but probably just prefer to avoid based on the barrier and only the 3 runs in. Sure to get well backed. Surprised he is $9 at the moment, would have though he would be a solid 2nd favourite here, so those odds seem about right. Rough chance only though. Place: 3-COLLAR is one of the Williams stable who seems to be progressing along OK. 1st up worked home well at Sandown. 2nd up went forward and very impressive win, under a hold. 3rd up started absolutely stupid odds and got beaten – couldn’t see that coming could we ?. Well beaten that day at Caulfield, but was lumping 59gs and giving most of the field a lot of weight, so guess you can make excuses. Went forward early to take up the running in stop start AAMI Vase, but the (1) always had his measure. You do get the feeling he is on the improve though and the form for this race is always the first three home from the AAMI Vase and Norman Robinson so he ticks that box. Proven on wet tracks if the rain comes. Probably lobs on the speed here and should be in this for a long way. Rough chance. 4-SABRAGE has been slowly coming along this spring, but deserves a lot of attention being the winner of the Norman Robinson. Thereabouts in his first 3 runs this time in, then won at Caulfield when he got perfect on pace cover on a very windy day, the runner up went for home far too early, and the 3rd horse was very badly held up for runs. Probably prefer to be on those two from that race where this one did seem to get the breaks. Plus with this guy is that he normally lobs just on the speed, so puts himself into the perfect position. That is going to be difficult today though from barrier (16), likely to get caught out wide here. Have to respect as some chance being a place getter in traditional lead up race, but we probably prefer place. Place. 3rd W=$15.00 6-PERFECT PUNCH is coming through the Geelong Classic / Derby Trial which is traditionally a seriously poor form line for this race. That effort was OK, did tend to over race and just needs to settle to stay the trip. Adelaide form before that was pretty good, he can go forward here and make his own luck too. Worth noting that stable and jockey won this race in 2008 with REBEL RAIDER at 100-1, coming off a similar well beaten 3rd in the Geelong Classic. Actually also worth nothing he carried 2kgs more than the (7) at Geelong too, and meets him at equal weights today. Find it hard to get enthused about Geelong form, it has been proven time and time again to not line up in this race, but this one is going along OK, should race handy so solid place chance. Doubt he has the brilliance to win this. Place. 11-CORNELL has been going along OK in the B grade staying 3YO races. Well beaten by many of these at Flemington and then well held by the (7) at Geelong when he did get a perfect split up on the inside. Drawn a nice barrier and will probably get a great sit here just behind the speed. Jockey is in flying form. Hard to see him winning – again hard to get enthused about the Geelong Classic form, but he is probably a rough place chance on a perfect run. Rough place only at very best. Sacking: 2-ISOPACH has been mixing his form a little. Took a while to warm up this spring, then pounced with a nice win at Flemington. Worked home OK in the Norman Robinson when he did get a few hip n shoulders which might have put him off his game. 2YO form was OK over the longer trips, so you think the distance is probably going to suit. Drawn out here and probably drops well, well back and hard to see him improving enough to turn around the margins on a whole stack of them who finished well ahead of him last start. No 8-COSTLY COMMITMENT has been very consistent in his 6 career starts, never finishing further back then 4th. But boy, oh boy does he plod. He just grinds away, ever so slowly. Sure he stays, just a matter of how long he takes to stay the 2500M. Always there around 4th, just grinding away. The win at Caulfield they went very fast that day, the rest of the field went wide and he cut the corner and still only just won. Just ground away again at Flem, and not far away from them in the Norman Robinson when he did have to switch runs at one stage in the straight. Drawn a nice barrier, but can just see him dropping well back here in a big field, striking trouble and just plodding away again, without the speed to get around tiring runners. Prefer to risk, 9-SCELTO has had a long tough spring campaign and sometimes these ones can stick on nicely in this race. Tore away to a big lead at Flem 3 starts back, on pacers were wining that day, but he was still easily run down. Went forward again at Caulfield in the Norman Robinson facing the breeze and was quickly beaten. Backed up in the AAMI Vase – and the only runner here to do so and was ridden a bit more quietly – you would have thought in a small field was a perfect time to run to a lead and try and pinch a race. Stuck on OK that day and ticks the box of being a place getter in the AAMI Vase, but hard to get over enthused. Likely to go forward here again. Passing. 12-EAGLE COMMAND started a well backed favourite in the Geelong Classic, but never gave a yelp. Stewards reported thumps, playing up in barriers, sweats, lots of not very good things, so maybe the run can be excused. Is backing up very quickly though, normally they take a bit more of a break after that sort of report. Impressive maiden win, then super impressive run here 2 starts back. They went straight past him that day at Flem, put quite a few lengths on him at the top of the straight, and yet, somehow, come the last 100M he was running all over the top of them again ? Most unusual run. Looks a genuine stayer, does have ability, likely to drop well back here and just hard to be enthusiastic about him coming off a questionable run last start. Capable of better though, if he repeated his run 2 starts back he would be right in the finish here, but have to leave out today. No 13-ZABEELIONAIRE has been going along OK in just his four career starts and hasn’t been too far off some of these. Worked home OK last start, but was still well beaten by the first 3 home there, 2 of whom had genuine excuses, so hard to see him turning the tables today. He looks a likely type, the sort to be flashing home late, but he hasn’t quite stepped up this spring. Suspect he might be better next preparation with this really his first campaign. Blinkers first time on a Zabeel though can often make the difference. Drawn a nice barrier, but will drop well back here and prefer others. No 4th W=$19.20 14-I FEEL GOOD is one we have been pushing at 100-1 the last couple of weeks and he is going along OK. Only the 3 starts this time in, was SCR from Caulf a month or so ago so you would think has had a little set back in his campaign. AAMI Vase run wasn’t too bad, sat out the back in the small field and was working home OK at the end of the race. Suspect this one has a fair bit of improvement to come, but does look like this is coming up too quickly. Up in distance from 1400M to 2000M last start and out to 2500M again today. Realistically just the roughest of place chances, but he is probably the one if you are looking for a silly outsider to drop into 4th for a monster first four collect. Otherwise no. 15-RAPIDUS is coming off a Gosford 1600M maiden win, which if it was any other runner you would stamp with a gigantic DREAMING BUDDY, but it is trained by Bart. So guess that means you need to pay some attention, and also that is will start one 1/10th of its proper odds on the tote. Drops well back, hasn’t been too far away in most career runs but hard to get enthused here. No 16-MR CHEZ plugged away OK at Geelong but was safely held by the (7). Drawn inside barrier and probably races on the speed here, but otherwise looks out of his depth in this. No 17-MUSTANG(emerg) is a NZ visitor who was well held at Geelong and beaten home there by plenty going around here so hard to get enthused. No 18-MONSILI (emerg) is coming off a very weak country race and out of his depth here. No Summary: This is a classic race with a classic form line stamped all over the top of it. Time and time again, the winner of this race comes out of the first three horses home in the Norman Robinson or the AAMI Vase. Although REBEL RAIDER and MONACO CONSUL have spoilt the party recently if you look back over the last 25 years the count is something like 21 of the last 25 winners of this race have been placed in those races in their lead up run. That’s an A for effort, and pretty much the strongest form line in racing. Which brings us to the Geelong Classic. Over the years we have had a lot of impressive winners come through that race, and the only time it has provided a winner was when the well beaten 3rd REBEL RAIDER won at 100-1 a few years back. Normally we just write off the Geelong form straight off, but you know what – this year for the first time we are going to give the Geelong winner a chance. Just really liked the win of the 7-INDUNA, he won like a tough quality stayer and we think he has to go in as a strong chance. Additionally, the only winner in the last 10 years to have had only 3 runs leading into the race was BENICIO in 2005, all the other winners have had 4 or more. Which is what 10-NIAGARA is trying to do today. Big field and this could be a solid staying contest. Normally there are two types of Derby winners, the classy finish WFA type and the solid staying type, but the classy type win more often than not, even if they do not stay. 9-SCELTO is the likely leader here – and he can burn along if let loose. 10-NIAGARA can go forward, but has to work from an outside barrier. 16-MR CHEZ and 6-PERFECT PUNCH both race on the speed so think we are going to get a pretty genuine staying test here. Probably want to be looking for something sitting behind these with cover who can burst through with a touch of class in the straight. We really like the 5-SANGSTER here, looks a great each way bet at the $12 or so on offer. Should get a good sit with cover, showed last start he has the turn of foot to win this race and plenty to like about last run when jockey simply went too early. Should have won. 7-INDUNA is going to be suited by the fast tempo and he is a solid staying type. Let’s see if we can pick the 1 year the Geelong form is worth following ? 1-MANAWANUI the other obvious danger, will get a good sit on the speed, but just looks far too short odds for us in this and would have just preferred to see him beat some more competitive fields in his lead up runs. 3-COLLAR the best of the rest as you need to respect the lead up run place getters. But really keen to have something each way on 5-SANGSTER One to risk: 8-COSTLY COMMITMENT Roughie: 3-COLLAR The Key: AAMI Vase and Normal Robinson first three home. That’s it. Find the winner there. RESULTS : Nice collect here and we sum up the race really well, finding the value winner on top and giving it a very strong push, plus tipping the quinella straight out. The AAMI Vase / Norman Robinson form line wins through again and we spotted that this one had the necessary turn of foot to win a Derby. Probably a bit lucky and the staying type 7-INDUNA should have won with any luck. 1-MANAWANUI failed to stay. Even efforts from the 4-SABRAGE , 13-ZABEELIONAIRE

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