FLEMINGTON : TURNBULL STAKES - 3rd Oct 2010 Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 9M Betting Portfolio ($50): It’s Sunday, it’s daylight savings, the weather has finally warmed up and who knows we may even find a winner if we are extremely lucky. Weather is looking fantastic for the weekend, low to mid 20s and glorious sunshine. Track is currently rated a DEAD(4) you would think would start out like that during the day and be upgraded. Interesting to see how this track races – last meeting here the rail was TRUE, and on a wet deteriorating track all the winners were swooping down the middle of the track. Rail out 9M means that is going to be the ground that got most of the racing last time ? Should get even racing on a dry track, just be wary just in case the track does favour those running on again. Down the straight, no idea to be honest, suspect they might come down the middle or outside of the track though. So perfect weather, fair track, big fields – all set and ready to go for spring. There are a few shorties going around Race 2, Race 3, Race 8, but the others races look great value races and would recommend wide running doubles as expect there may be some long shot winners. RESULTS : Fine sunny day, but track stays a DEAD(4). They are keen to stay off the rails for most of the day, though those that stick hard to the fence go well. In general though the track did favour runners on, and with big fields and genuine speed quite a few winners actually came from last on the turn which is unusual. Down the straight best ground was out past the middle of the course - or by getting a piggyback on HAY LIST. We manage to squeeze a small profit in the Betting Portfolio, and weren't far off in the other bets. BEST BET : Race 9: 5-WOORIM $10 WIN 3rd W=$4.70 Has been absolutely flying this time in. Ran on very well at MV 1st up, then flew home in the Group 1 feature and probably would’ve won in another 50M or so. Fitter for the 2 runs in, looks to be one on the up, and looks well weighted here. Just probably gets back a little so just needs a solidly run race and for them to be running on OK over the Flem 1400M. Very keen. RESULTS : He does get back a little - just a little bit too far over the Flem 1400M which normally favours on pacers. Just that little bit too far back, finishes with much gusto and still worth following. BEST WIN : Race 4: 3-CAPECOVER, 1-HARRIS TWEED x $5 1st 1-HARRIS TWEED W=$6.90 = 5 x 6.90 = $34.50 Fairly ordinary staying race, but expect the better stayers to start stepping up now they have got out to a distance. 3-CAPECOVER is a solid stayer, 3rd in a SAAB and won a Queen Elizabeth (no, not the person – the race) over this track and distance. Won the Mornington Cup 3rd up last time in, and last start jockey stated that he couldn’t ride the horse out fully, so probably should have finished closer. 1-HARRIS TWEED should be ready to show something, has loomed in both the Melbourne and Sydney Cups like he was going to win, but not quite finished it off. Will pick up a good staying race over the spring. Both are going to be nice odds, so have a win bet on both of them. RESULTS : Perfect ride, gets a great sit just off the pace and kicks for home. Never looks in doubt - though a few anxious moments as one comes out and almost runs it down. He is a pretty decent stayer - he always box seats and puts himself into the race which is what you want. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED $7 WIN 2nd W=$5.00 QUINELLA : Race 5: 3-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED #8,9,15,16 x $2 = $8 2nd 3-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED W=$5.00, 1st 9-PALACIO DE CRISTAL W=$5.60 QUINELLA = $12.60 x 2 = $25.20 Another who is absolutely flying this time in – form is faultless. Chased home hard in Group 1 last start when not beaten far, and overall win/place strike rate is pretty good. A bit under rated. Drawn barrier 1 here, probably just want to see her ridden a little more forward over the Flem 1400M which often favours on pacers. Instead of backing her the place, take some value quinellas with the main dangers, or those drawn well that will race on pace. RESULTS : Great ride by the jockey, gets her out to the middle of the track in the best going from barrier 1, unfortunately one sticks hard to the rails and only just hangs on. Very close indeed. Get money back with the saver quinella anyway. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 16-DIZLAGO $5EW X Very even 3YOF feature race and you can either spend hours lining up the weights and watching the videos of the races that most of these have come through – or go for a totally different form line. Fitter for the 2 runs in and like the she has had the 1700M run going into this, when a lot of her opposition are stepping up in distance. Competitive against the males last start, was actually a clear 2nd with about 50M to go and just died on run a little. Well drawn and expect to see her finishing hard at nice odds. RESULTS : Gets well back and runs home OK - but the ones in the finish were just as far back anyway. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4: 6-CRABS at around $6. 7th W=$6.60 Old stayer who has suddenly found a purple patch of form, winning last 4 runs on end. However, they have all been small fields of dubious quality and on wet tracks. Has only won 1 of 18 on good tracks and starts to go up against some genuine spring stayers today. Keen to take on. RESULTS : Never looks likely, dry track and this class is against him. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FLEXI TRIFECTA : Race 9 : 5 / 9,16 / 3,8,9,10,13,15,16 x $2.50 = 20.83% 3rd 5-WOORIM W=$4.70 / - / 1st 10-GATHERING W=$21.00, 2nd 3-ROCKPECKER W=$13.00 FLEXI TRIFECTA : Race 9 : 5 / 3,8,9,10,13,15,16 / 9,16 x $2.50 = 20.83% Pretty keen on the top pick in the last race, 5-WOORIM. Normally Flem 1400M favours those running on pace, so main dangers are the 9-SISTER MADLY, 16-SELECT. Expect one of these run a place, so anchor them to run a place and rotate some value winners in the other selections. RESULTS : Unfortunately our one gets too far back and comes with a rush - but too late. And we picked the wrong on pacers, it was 10-GATHERING that lead all the way. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $59.70 NET : $+9.70 The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. NO BET. SLEEP IN AND GET YOUR HOUR BACK. Race 2: 1-ALTIUS, 12-ZUBBAYA, 9-MUKARRAR Race 3: 1-SKILLED, 4-TERRITORY, 5-BEST CHOICE Race 4: 3-CAPECOVER, 1-HARRIS TWEED, 10-PHAZE ACTION Race 5: 3-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED, 15-OCEAN CHALLENGER, 8-LADY LYNETTE Race 6: 16-DIZLAGO, 7-SISTINE ANGEL, 8-PANIPIQUE Race 7: 18-MOUDRE (emerg), 1-SHOCKING, 16-DESCARADO, 7-VIGOR Race 8: 4-HAY LIST, 8-CATAPULTED, 10-BELTROIS Race 9: 5-WOORIM, 9-SISTER MADLY, 16-SELECT RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 1-ALTIUS 12-ZUBBAYA 9-MUKARRAR RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 1-SKILLED SCR 4-TERRITORY 1st W=$2.90 5-BEST CHOICE RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 3-CAPECOVER 1-HARRIS TWEED 1st W=$6.90 10-PHAZE ACTION RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 3-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED 2nd W=$5.00 15-OCEAN CHALLENGER 8-LADY LYNETTE RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 16-DIZLAGO 7-SISTINE ANGEL 1st W=$9.80 8-PANIPIQUE RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 1-SHOCKING 2nd W=$5.40 16-DESCARADO 7-VIGOR RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 4-HAY LIST 1st W=$1.50 8-CATAPULTED 2nd W=$6.20 10-BELTROIS Quinella : $3.30 RACE 9: RESULTS Tips: 5-WOORIM 3rd W=$4.70 9-SISTER MADLY 16-SELECT RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES GROUP 1 2000M SET WEIGHTS Tips: 18-MOUDRE (emerg) SCR 1-SHOCKING 2nd W=$5.40 16-DESCARADO 7-VIGOR Others: 20,5,15,6 Pace: FAST Leaders : 3-ZAVITE, 11-STERLING PRINCE, 16-DESCARADO Handy : 4-METAL BENDER, 5-SHOOT OUT, 8-SPEED GIFTED, 9-TYPHOON TRACY, 10-ZABRASIVE Back : 1-SHOCKING, 2-ZIPPING, 6-MONACO CONSUL, 7-VIGOR, 12-FAINT PERFUME, 13-JESSICABEEL, 14-BUCCELLATI, 15-DARIANA, 17-RAFFAELLO (emerg), 18-MOUDRE (emerg), 20-VALDEMORO (emerg) Chances: 1-SHOCKING is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who seems to have stepped up another level this spring. Worked home pretty well 1st up in the Liston, then back to Flem and wet track seemed to suit when launched over the top of them in the Makybe Diva. Track was strongly favouring runners on that day. Not disgraced in the Underwood when was held up for a run just after they entered the straight and stuck on pretty well. Underwood run was similar to his other Caulfield runs when beaten in the Herbert Power and Coogny last year – he seems to just take a bit longer to wind up at Caulfield and the winner has normally scooted for home. Back to Flemington is a big, big plus – definitely seems to be his track. Winner of 4 from 4 here, including the Melbourne Cup, Makybe Diva, and whatever you want to call that staying race on Derby Day (Leuxs? SAAB? Hotham Handicap? – Pick a name – any name). Thing to like is those wins were all in very tough competitive races with big fields – no easy pickings there. Looks perfectly suited here, going very well, drawn out, track should race even at least or maybe even favour runners on so looks extremely hard to beat. Solid pace will suit. Only negative is that this race is set weights – not WFA, so he has to carry topweight and the rest of the field do get a weight pull this time around. Strong chance. 2nd W=$5.40 5-SHOOT OUT started spring with a bang and has gone along OK since then. Just seemed to hit a flat spot in the Memsie on the turn, the first two kicked on him, but he got going again and finished on strongly. Dead set shocker of a ride last start in the Dato Tan, everyone was avoiding the inside, and that’s exactly where he ended up ! Nice work Mr Jockey. Interesting to see where he races from barrier 2 – you would think they would race on pace, he has tended to race fairly forward at this runs in Melb this spring. Previously he tended to drop back and run on. You would think he is going to be suited back to a big track. Inside barrier in a big field might see him getting trapped unless they really scoot along and spread out the field. Doesn’t have to carry the top weight either so that’s a plus. You could see him getting a perfect on pace run here and think last start may be better than it looked given he was in the wrong part of the track and 1st time around MV. Definite chance. 3rd W=$4.40 7-VIGOR is coming along nicely this spring and should be ready to peak with the 2 runs in. Came home nicely 1st up in the Liston, and lot to like about the Makybe Diva run when he loomed and hit the lead early in the straight – and kicked – just had to go a bit early cause SPEED GIFTED was pressuring him and that left him vulnerable to be run down in the last 50M. Definitely better back on a dry track and 5 times winner and placed 8 from 10 at Flem. Probably has a Flemington tattoo on his ankle somewhere. Did put in a shocker in this race last year when hit a mid spring form slump. Big plus is that under the set weights scale he gets some weight relief – meets the (1) 1.5kgs better for a 1.8 L defeat last start. Definite chance. 15-DARIANA is one of Bart’s who surprised with a forward showing in the Underwood, beating only by the superstar stable mate on the rise. Fitter for the 2 runs in and drops in weight from that run – which is a big plus. Main problem her is the barrier, but is a drop back and drop out horse anyway and there should be a fast speed in this to allow her to run on. Have to respect weight, form and stable. Solid chance. 16-DESCARADO is a Sydney visitor who is also a leader, so we are actually going to get a race run at a pretty fast pace for once. Drawn wide so is going to have to do plenty of work to go forward – and is probably still going to be caught out wide. Like that he has had 3 runs in and a 1900M run going into this. Lightly raced, plenty of upside, hard and fit, placed in all runs over 2000M+, best of all gets in nicely on the weights here, getting 4kgs or so from most of his Autumn 3YO Derby drinking buddies. Looks a solid chance here – barrier is the problem, but if they ride him aggressively out of the barrier good chance he could cross the field and lead and then the race is set up for him. Strong chance. 18-MOUDRE (emerg) is this years spring star on the rise. Look at that form – placed 11 from 13, and placed 10 of last 11 starts (other start was a 4th – most disappointing). Fitter for the 3 runs in, and again like that he has had the 2000M run and most of his rivals have not. Just left it too late last start at Caulfield, was absolutely flying and would have won in another couple of bounds. Dominant wins at 1st two runs this campaign and worth noting he has bolted in last two runs at Flemington. Drawn a barrier today and you would hope they won’t ride him too far back. Either way, does look like we are going to get a fast pace here, so will be suited running on and suited back at Flem. Up in class, but he gets the weight benefit of this set weights scale. Very strong chance – main problem is going to be getting into the actual field. If he does looks the one to beat for us under these conditions. One to beat. SCR 20-VALDEMORO (emerg) is a tough staying mare who has always shown so much promise, but really wants Flemington and distance. Fitter for the 3 runs in, ran home well 1st up, one of the flops in the Stock Stakes, but knuckled down really well last start and looks like she is about to find form. Like she has had 3 runs in and the 2000M run. Bad barrier, and main problem is 4th emergency she is pretty unlikely to get a run. Shame cause she looks really well in this race with only 51.5kgs. If she gets a start – put her in. Go well. SCR Place: 2-ZIPPING is a tough old campaigner who has raced and been competitive in just about every race there is going. Winner of 3 x Sandown Classics, 2 x Cox Plate placings, Mackinnon placings and a Melbourne Cup fourth. Very consistent, tough performer once he gets going each spring. He has gone close to winning this race quite a few times, and been hopelessly unlucky a few times as well. 5th in this race in 2006 beaten less than a length when absolutely flew home from last, 5th in this race in 2007, 3rd in this race in 2008 and 8th in this race last year. He just seems to take 2 runs each campaign to warm up – so suspect he will do the same again here today – ran on pretty well and finish somewhere between 3rd and 5th. Stuck on OK 1st up, drawn an OK barrier and can race handy if required so he won’t be far off them at the finish. Place. 1st W=$19.80 4-METAL BENDER is a well performed Sydney sider who stuck on OK in the Underwood. Stays on 59kgs whilst the (15) who finished in front of him drops 1.5kgs into this. Lightly raced and competitive at the top level. Big plus with this guy is that he can race on speed and make his own luck. Yet to be unplaced over the 2000M. Problem here is the barrier (15), if they go forward you would think he is going to get caught wide. Nothing wrong with his form, but barrier against and has to give weight to a lot with ability so probably prefer place today. 4th W=$11.00 6-MONACO CONSUL is fitter for the 2 runs in and has a bit of untapped ability about him. Solid run 1st up in the Liston when stuck to the inside which was the worse going and stuck on pretty well. Then strange run last start, he was battling at the top of the straight, doing a lot wrong, racing with his head on the side, stopped to take a bite out of the one racing next to him – then got going again and actually came on pretty well. Muzzle goes on today? Looked pretty good in trackwork last Sun at Caulfield when easily accounted for the (12). Wonder if they might go forward today from barrier 1 ? He is a bit of a wild card and one to watch out for – has been doing plenty wrong, and lots of gear changes today. Suspect if he puts it all together he can win this. Barrier 1 is a bit of a worry though – maybe he can chew his way through the field hungry caterpillar style ? Seriously, given that he is playing up a bit you would probably prefer him to be sitting outside runners in clear running room. Rough. Sacking: 3-ZAVITE is a solid, on pace, dry track handicap stayer who normally takes a few runs to run into form. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and they have all been fantastic, he was the best of the runners on in the Liston (on an unsuitable wet track), and again ran on very well in the Makybe Diva on a wet track. Led them in the Underwood and stuck on OK for 4th. Dry track, 2000M and running along in front here should suit. Main problem here is the weight – he isn’t really a WFA horse, this isn’t WFA anyway – but he gets lumped with equal top weight and has to give weight to the rest of the field. Doesn’t look suited today. Likely to be a bit of pressure up front. Passing. 8-SPEED GIFTED is proving to be a bit of a enigma trapped in a puzzle wrapped in a losing Cups double ticket from last year. Stepped out last spring like a world beater, trounced them in the Metropolitan to gain Caulfield Cup qualification, which was the goal all along – then trainer bizarrely decided not to run him. Jarred up in Cox Plate. Mixed form during Autumn. Definitely a dead set wet tracker – has jarred up on hard ground before. Had solid support here 1st up – loomed at the top of the straight like he was going to unleash one of those powerful wet track run away wins – and stopped cold. Was going backward at a rapid rate at the end of last race. Stewards report does comment that he had a bit of a sniffle – poor baby. Probably goes forward here today from inside barrier here. You would think he has had a setback because of the virus so might be behind in his preparation ? Really not convinced about this one, virus aside, with the up and down form and sudden change of plans you just get the feeling something isn’t quite right with him – really didn’t like the way he stopped so suddenly last start. Looks badly suited if the track comes up firm. Very keen to take on. No 9-TYPHOON TRACY is the Racehorse of the Year being ambitiously set for this year’s Cox Plate. Punters and commentators around the nation are saying “No way”, trainer seems very focussed on sticking to the plan. Guess you have to respect that he is the leader trainer in the state, and we are just some track suit wearing, couch surfing, opinionated know it all who wouldn’t know the front of a real horse from the back. Fitter for the 2 runs in. both have been OK. Stuck on OK in the Liston, then change of riding tactics in the Dato Tan to avoid the sand pit inside of the track and went OK ridden off the speed. Have to say that she did get the perfect run and WHOBEGOTYOU went past her pretty easily though. Seems like they are going to ride her off the pace again today. Not sure about that – if you have the best front running horse in the country, why not use it? And if you aren’t using it – do you mind if we borrow it? We have real doubts about her ability to run 2000M, she is outstanding up to 1600M in mare’s class, and has destroyed some weaker WFA fields. But every time she has stepped up to the serious spring races, Liston / Makybe Diva / Underwood last year, and Liston / Dato Tan this year she has found one better. Not only found one better – but they just seem to go past her and she doesn’t have much to give. She is an outstanding horse, and who knows the trainer could be right and she could come out and win today – but as a punter pretty keen to take her on. Risking. 10-ZABRASIVE is on a very regimented Spring campaign path – as set by the TAB competition, not his trainer. Lightly raced ZABEEL stayer who is looking for distance and Flemington. Good run 1st up when loomed up and showed a bit of sprint on the turn, then didn’t do much last start. Can race handy but is drawn wide so could get caught out wide. You can probably forgive last run and you would expect he is going to improve today. Gets a bit of weight relief under these conditions too. Probably won’t be too far off them so maybe throw in if you are going super wide in trifectas and first fours. Rough place only. 11-STERLING PRINCE is a tough on pace handicap stayer who can handle a lot of racing. Fitter for the 4 runs in and is starting to get into more suitable races. Probably goes forward here and will ensure a genuine tempo. Gave in far too quickly in the Underwood, is better than that, gets some weight relief here, but still badly outclassed. 12-FAINT PERFUME is one of the best horses in Australia who has struggled at her 1st two runs back. Tough muscular type with flashing finishing burst who took last spring by storm, and continued to race well during the Autumn. Two runs this time in have been extremely ordinary, dropped out and failed to do much at all in the Liston, then left lagging at back of the field in the Stock Stakes and did make some ground – but still well beaten. Probably better back on a genuine dry track. Bit of an unknown in that she could easily win this on her best form, but so far she really isn’t going very well at all. Never one to pay too much attention to track work, but the (6) held her easily during an exhibition gallop last Sunday at Caulfield. The other problem is she tends to start way under the odds on the tote. Really not sure about how she is going and prefer to risk her today. 13-JESSICABEEL is a two miler, who is only lightly raced and should just about be ready to show form with the 2 runs in. Drawn incredibly wide, will probably drop well back and is better off in a handicap. Have to say though – these lightly raced ones with ability on the up can run a race so again throw in for rank outsider in trifectas and first fours if you want to go really wide. Else No. 14-BUCCELLATI is an overseas import who apparently once he gets to Flemington and out to distance is magically going to find some form. Yeah right – and our international modelling career is going to take off any day now. Last and last going into today, and quite likely to run last again. No 17-RAFFAELLO (emerg) can mix his form and 2nd up, up 600M off an ordinary 1st up run into a very tough competitive field looks too tough. No. 19-C'EST LA GUERRE SCR Summary: This is an incredibly even race with a stack of winning chances. Actually thought it was one of the hardest races we have ever looked at, cause in a big field with lots of talent there are a lot that can suddenly strike form at their 3rd or 4th run in. Important to note that this race that is not WFA, it is set weights so there are some horses in this field that look extremely well weighted. If you look back over the last 10 years only one winner has carried the topweight of 59kgs, and you see the likes of STUDEBAKER, DEVIL MOON and LITTORIO, none of whom were world beaters, who have all won this race with a weight advantage. The other thing we prefer in a tough, competitive field is to stick to those who have had 3 runs in, or have had the 2000M run this time on. Fast pace, race fitness and form is going to be important. Looks a fascinating race. Pace does look to be quite fast, and expect a solid tempo in a large field. 3-ZAVITE, 11-STERLING PRINCE, 16-DESCARADO (needs to work from wide out) can all go forward , with 4-METAL BENDER (wide), 8-SPEED GIFTED and maybe 9-TYPHOON TRACY sitting handy. A lot depends on what they do with 16-DESCARADO, wouldn’t be surprised if they ride him aggressively out of the gates to try and find the lead. If he crosses and leads he could prove hard to run down. Really sticking our neck out and taking on all three of 8-SPEED GIFTED (dry track, stopped badly last run), 9-TYPHOON TRACY (2000M in this class?) and 12-FAINT PERFUME (two poor runs in). You would be advised to take these 3 in a box trifecta cause we are setting ourselves up for a major fall. Despite the depth of this field happy to go with the handicapper on the way up in 18-MOUDRE (emerg). Main problem is that he is only 2nd emergency so probably unlikely to get a run. If he does though, back at Flem, drawn well, hopefully not ridden so far back this time, had the 3 runs in and the 2000M run, suited by the fast pace and getting a weight pull think he is going to be very hard to beat. 1-SHOCKING is the obvious danger, despite being topweight, the races he has won at Flemington have all been damm tough, suited back here, with a fast pace and is going along pretty well. Giving a solid chance to 16-DESCARADO who looks extremely well weighted in this – competitive with the (5) and the (6) in the Autumn and gets 4kgs or so from them today. Plus he has had the 3 runs in and the 1900M run. If he drew a barrier would be rating him clearly on top. Even from outside barrier, seeing everyone knows there are a few leaders here they might not go too quickly, and if he crosses and leads he is going to make a race of this. Still plenty of other chances though, also have to consider, 7-VIGOR and 5-SHOOT OUT, even 20-VALDEMORO, but she is unlikely to get a start. Go wide in the quaddies, good chance of a result in this race. Gone a bit away from the norm, but keen to have a bet with lots of value, and probably having a win bet on all three of 18-MOUDRE (emerg), 1-SHOCKING, 16-DESCARADO with lots of value in the race. One to risk: 8-SPEED GIFTED, 9-TYPHOON TRACY, 12-FAINT PERFUME 15th W=$51.60 - 5th W=$7.40 - 6th W=$11.80 Roughie: 16-DESCARADO, 6-MONACO CONSUL The Key: Set weight scale – not WFA – watch for those well weighted in this. RESULTS : Very solidly run race, as predicted they go extremely fast. 16-DESCARADO had no hope once trapped out wide on a solid tempo, 11-STERLING PRINCE really runs them along and goes for home early at the top of the straight. So who do you want in a tough slog ? 2-ZIPPING of course - seems so obvious in hindsight. Solid effort again by 1-SHOCKING who has to come through the field and is probably better getting to the outside of horses, and 5-SHOOT OUT who continues to just plug away in every run he has. 4-METAL BENDER finishes off race very nicely too - really not much between the first four home. As for 9-TYPHOON TRACY, she looms like she is going to be in the finish, but dies on her run. Either she just ran out of condition 3rd up, or she is going to struggle in a tough slog 2000M - suspect it is the later. Still suspect about how 12-FAINT PERFUME is going too - although she did improve on a dry track.

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